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I   P     O    N    O    T    E

C r e d it A nal ys i s A n d R e sea r c h L t d .                                           December 07, 2 012

Price Ban
        nd                                    : `700 - 750 per sha
                                                                 are
Minimum Bid Lot Size
      m            e                          : 20 Equ Shares
                                                     uity
IPO open during
       ns                                     : Dec 07 – 11, 2012
                                                     7
Book Run
       nning Lead Manager
                  M                           : Edelw
                                                    weiss Financi Service Lt DSP Merr Lynch Ltd
                                                                ial        td,      rill      d
                                            Kotak Ma
                                                   ahindra Capi Company Ltd, ICICI S
                                                              ital    y            Securities Ltd
                                                                                                d
                                                IDBI C
                                                     Capital Marke Services L
                                                                 et         Ltd.
To list on
         n                                    : NSE & BSE
PE                                            : 17.3x (based on b
                                                                base price)*
                                              : 18.5x (based on c price)*
                                                                cap
Market Cap post-listin
                     ng                       : `1999 or $370m (based on the cap pric
                                                    9Cr      mn        n            ce)
Market Cap of Free Float                      : `2141 or $396m (based on the cap pric
                                                    1Cr      mn        n            ce)
*Based on FY12 EPS
        n

         2mn equity shares of `10 each aggre
IPO of 7.2          s           0          egating to `540Cr or $99.
                                                                   .2mn (at the cap price).
Shareholding Pattern
                   n

                                                          Pre-Issue                          Post-Issue
                                               No. of S
                                                      Shares          % Holding      No. of Shares        % Holding
Pre IPO Inv
          vestors                                     2,85
                                                         5,52,812       100.00%          2,13
                                                                                            3,53,112           74.78%
QIBs exclu
         uding MFs                                             0          0.00%             34
                                                                                             4,73,855          12.17%
Mutual Fun
         nds                                                   0          0.00%              1,25,995
                                                                                             1                   0.44%
Non Institu
          utional Investors
                          s                                    0          0.00%             10
                                                                                             0,79,955            3.78%
Public                                                         0          0.00%             25
                                                                                             5,19,895            8.83%
Total                                                 2,85
                                                         5,52,812       100.00%          2,85
                                                                                            5,52,812          100.00%
Executive Summary
          e
CARE is a leading, full service cred rating com
                                      dit         mpany in India and for the year ended March 31, 20
                                                                  a,           e                           012, it was
the secon largest rating company in India in te
          nd                         y             erms of rating turnover. T Company offers a wid range of
                                                                  g           The           y             de
rating and grading serv
          d            vices across a diverse rang of instruments and indu
                                                    ge                         ustries.
Credit rating is a mandatory requirement for iss   suance of deb instrument in India, wh
                                                                  bt           ts            hich make it a lucrative
business. Further, the rapid growth has seen in t internation markets w
                                                   the            nal         which include fast growing Asia.
CARE is t second la
           the         argest rating company in I                              rnover for the year ended March 31,
                                                    India in terms of rating tur
                                                                  s                         e
2012. It is the leading credit rating agency in Ind for IPO gr
          s                                        dia            rading, and ggraded larges number of I
                                                                                            st             IPOs since
the introduction of IPO grading in India.
CARE has long track record of 19 y
                       r             years in rating business. It enjoys a stro market p
                                                   g              t             ong         position with r
                                                                                                          relationship
with 4,644 clients as of September 3 2012.
          4            f              30,
CRISIL w acquired by S&P and IC
         was           b              CRA by Mood   dy’s, which lim their exp
                                                                  mits        pansion in the global marke as S&P
                                                                                            e              ets
and Mood  dy’s have already presen   nce in many countries. H    However, CA  ARE is well s to expand in many
                                                                                            set            d
countries..
The comp  pany’s IPO prriced at 21.5x annualized EPS of FY13 which is far inexpensive vis-à-vis pee CRISIL
                                     x                           3,             r           e              ers
which trad at 36.9x and ICRA 30.9x to annualized EPS for F
          des          a                                          FY13.



Keynote Capitals Ltd.                                                                                         Page 1
 
Our View
       w
We recom
       mmend investors to invest in CARE IPO on account o inexpensive valuation.
                                           O            of          e
Company Backgroun
      y         nd
CARE is a leading, full service cred rating com
                                     dit         mpany in India and for the year ended March 31, 20
                                                               a,          e                          012, it was
the secon largest rating company in India in te
         nd                         y             erms of rating turnover. T Company offers a wid range of
                                                               g           The            y          de
rating and grading serv
         d             vices across a diverse ran of instrum
                                                 nge          ments and inddustries. It als provides general and
                                                                                          so
customize industry research repo
         ed           r              orts. Since incorporation in April 199 it has co
                                                                           93,            ompleted 19,058 rating
assignme ents and has been rated Rs. 44,036.03 billion of debt as of September 3 2012. It had rating
                                                                                          30,
         hips with 4,64 clients as of Septemb 30, 2012 The Company’s existing shareholde include
relationsh            44            s             ber         2.                                     ers
domestic banks and finnancial institutions, such as IDBI Bank, Canara Bank SBI and IL&
                                                  s                        k,             &FS, among oothers.
Promoter and Manag
       rs        gement
Mr. D.R. D         aging Directo and Chief Executive O
         Dogra (Mana           or                    Officer)
Mr. Rajes Mokashi (Deputy Mana
        sh                   aging Director)
Mr. P.N. S
         Sathees Kum (Chief Ge
                   mar       eneral Manag Ratings)
                                        ger,     )
Industry Overview
Global Cr
        redit Rating Industry
Evolution
        n
The credit rating busin ness traces its origins to th mercantile credit agenc
                                      s             he          e            cies in the Un
                                                                                          nited States o America.
                                                                                                       of
Their func  ction was to rate merchan ability to honour their financial obligations. The first such ag
                                      nts’                                                e             gency was
establishe in New York in 1841 by Louis Ta
           ed           Y                           appan. Robe Dun subs
                                                                ert          sequently acqquired the ag gency and
published its first rating guide in 1859. A simila mercantile rating agenc was formed by John Br
                          gs                        ar                       cy            d           radstreet in
1849. The expansion of the ratings business to securities ra
           e              o           s                         ating began in 1909 when John Moody started to
                                                                             n                         y
rate US r  railroad bonds and subse
                          s,         equently utility and industrial bonds. Po
                                                    y                        oor’s Publishing Company issued its
                                                                                                       y
first rating in 1916, St
           gs                         stics Company in 1922, and the Fitch Publishing Com
                         tandard Statis                                                   mpany in 192 In 1941,
                                                                                                       24.
Poor’s Pu  ublishing and Standard S
                        d            Statistics mergged to becom Standard & Poor's Co
                                                                me                        orp. Other innternational
rating age encies include Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd (JCR and A.M. B
                         e                                     RA)            Best amongst others.
The Cred Rating Ind
       dit        dustry in Indi
                               ia
In India, the first credit rating agenc Credit Rating and Infor
                         t            cy,                       rmation Servi ices of India Limited (“CRISIL”), was
set up in 1987. A sec   cond rating a agency, ICRA Limited (the known as, Investment Information and Credit
                                                 A              en
Rating Ag gency of India Limited) (“IC
                        a             CRA”) was esstablished in 1991 and a th agency, CARE, was e
                                                                             hird                       established
in 1993. D Duff and Phe elps Credit Rating India (P Limited wh
                                                  P)            hich started its operations in 1996 was renamed
                                                                                           s            s
Fitch Ratiings India Private Limited (Fitch) in 200 and renam again to India Ratings and Research Private
                                                  01            med                         s
Limited in 2012. Brickw
         n              works Ratings India Private Limited (Bri
                                      s            e             ickworks) beg its rating business in 2
                                                                             gan                        2008. SME
Rating Ag gency of India Limited (SMERA) also be
                        a                         egan its rating business in 2008.
                                                                g
Historicall bank credit has been a major sourc of funding for the corpo
          ly,                                   ce                          orates. Banks in India enj relative
                                                                                         s            joy
advantage of extending loans as different from investing in debt papers, w
          e                                                                which are not required to b ‘marked
                                                                                        t             be
to market’. This provides them with an advantag in the rising interest rate scenario. Banks in India also enjoy
                                               ge             g             e
the benef of lower cost of funding as the interest on savings deposits is r
         fit                                                 s              regulated. Th growth in b
                                                                                        his           bank credit
has led to growth in de issuances by banks in India. These banks have raised consid
         o            ebt          s                                                    derable amounts of debt
from mark to meet gr
         ket           rowing capital requirement either by issuing Tier-II b
                                                ts                                       ssuing hybrid bonds.
                                                                            bonds or by is
         within Basel II, the second of the Base Accords wh
Further, w                         d             el            hich contains recommendations on banking laws
                                                                             s
and regul lations issued by the Bas Committe on banking supervision various ap
                       d            sel          ee                           n,             pproaches for banks to
determine credit risk have been pre
         e                         escribed with progressively increasing r
                                                               y              risk sensitivity The RBI introduced a
                                                                                             y.
phased approach to th implement
                       he           tation of Base II in India. In the first st
                                                 el                           tage, Indian b banks were r
                                                                                                        required by
the RBI t adopt a ‘standardized approach’ f credit risk. Under the ‘standardized approach the RBI
          to           ‘           d             for                          e                         h’,
recognize certain rating agencies a eligible cre rating age
         ed                         as           edit          encies and In  ndian banks a required to use such
                                                                                            are          o



Keynote Capitals Ltd.                                                                                      Page 2
 
eligible cr
          redit rating ag
                        gencies to ass
                                     sess their credit risk in order to determin complianc with capital adequacy
                                                                               ne        ce
requireme ents.
Business Operations
       s          s
CARE is primarily engaged in the b  business of providing ratin services. T company also provide research
                                                              ng          The                      es
services and risk ma   anagement so olutions (thro
                                                 ough Subsidiary). It is ex
                                                                          xpanding foo
                                                                                     otprint internaationally to
provide raating service in other c
                       es          countries and technologica assistance services to other rating agencies
                                                               al         e          o              g
located ouutside of India.  CARE’s un
                                    nconsolidated total income has increas from Rs. 549.11mn for the FY08
                                                 d            e           sed
to Rs.2, 171.93mn for the FY12 at a CAGR of 4    41% during such period; a unconsoli
                                                                          and         idated total in
                                                                                                    ncome was
Rs. 1,0255.38 million fo the six mon
                       or           nths ended S September 30 2012. The company’s P
                                                              0,                     PAT has incre  eased from
Rs. 266.8 mn for the FY08 to Rs. 1
         85                         1,157.02 million for FY12 a a CAGR of 44.3% during such period and PAT
                                                               at         f                         d,
was Rs. 5500.49mn for the six month ended Sep
                                    hs           ptember 30, 22012. 
The comp
       pany engage in the follo
                 ed           owing business operatio
                                                    ons



                                                 Rese
                                                    earch Service
                                                                es


                                                                                    R
                                                                                    Risk Managem
                                                                                               ment service
                                                                                                          es
              Rating Ser
                       rvices




                                                      CARE Ltd.
                                                      C



The follow
         wing table se out key o
                     ets                   highlights for the periods indicated:
                               operational h                        s
                                                                                                               Dur
                                                                                                                 ring the six
                                                                                                               mon
                                                                                                                 nths ended
                                                        During the f
                                                                   financial yea ended Mar 31,
                                                                               ar        rch
                                                                                                               Sep
                                                                                                                 ptember 30,
                                                          2009         2010         2011
                                                                                    2             20
                                                                                                   012              2012
    Total new assignments completed
            w                                             1,579        1,808        2,187         5,980               3,237

    Total deb instruments cumulatively rated (up
             bt
    to the ye ended March 31 / six m
            ear                    months                 5,452        7,206        9,225        14
                                                                                                  4,524              17,237
    ended September 30) )

    Total vol
            lume of debt rated (Rs. in Billions)
                         r                              5,910.66     6,527.00
                                                                     6            8,0
                                                                                    068.78      9,26
                                                                                                   68.61            3,571.20
    Total ind
            dustry researc reports com
                         ch          mpleted                58          134          167           205
                                                                                                   2                   136
    Total eco
            onomic resea
                       arch reports completed*              11           19           60            73
                                                                                                    7                   39
* Excludes t
           the Daily Debt Market Update, w
                          M              which is published four days a w
                                                                        week from Tues
                                                                                     sday to Friday, a
                                                                                                     and the Debt Ma
                                                                                                                   arket Review,
which is pub
           blished monthly.

CARE ent   tered into a non-binding m
                        n            memorandum of understand      ding with four credit rating agencies, ea located
                                                                                 r                         ach
in Brazil, Portugal, Ma alaysia and South Africa, t establish a international credit ratin agency, which would
                                                    to            an                          ng
provide innternational scale ratings to assist loca issuers in mobilizing re
                        s                            al                         esources from internationa financial
                                                                                              m             al
markets. The compan received a no object
                         ny                         tion letter fro SEBI to enter into a joint ventu
                                                                  om                                       ure for the
establishmment of an in nternational credit rating agency, subject to satisfac  ction of certain conditions mentioned
therein.




Keynote Capitals Ltd.                                                                                                  Page 3
 
Strengths
        s
    Establ  lished prese ence in rating debt instr ruments and bank loans and facilitie CARE ha over 19
                                                              d             s             es:            as
    years o experience in rating deb instruments and related obligations c
            of           e           bt            s                        covering a wid range of se
                                                                                         de              ectors, and
    as of SSeptember 30 2012, The company ha rating relat
                         0,                       ad           tionships with 4,644 clients. It is well equipped to
                                                                            h
    rate mmost kinds of short, medium and long
                         f                         g-term debt instruments, such as com  mmercial pap   per, bonds,
    debent               ence shares a structured debt instrum
            tures, prefere            and                       ments; bank loans and fac cilities, both f
                                                                                                         fund-based
    and non fund-based; and dep       posit obligatio
                                                    ons, such a inter-corpo
                                                               as            orate deposit fixed dep
                                                                                          ts,            posits and
    certific
           cates of depossit.
    Domai experienc across a range of se
           in            ce                     ectors: CARE has rated d
                                                              E            debt instrumeents covering a diverse
                                                                                                    g
    range of sectors, su as manuf
                         uch       facturing, ser
                                                rvices, banks and infrastru
                                                                          ucture. It has experience in providing
                                                                                                     n
    debt aand issuer ratings to man types of e
                                  ny            enterprises, in           porates, bank financial institutions,
                                                              ncluding corp             ks,
    public sector undertakings, stat governme undertakin
                                   te           ent           ngs, sub-sovvereign entitie NBFCs, S
                                                                                        es,          SMEs and
    micro-ffinance institu
                         utions.
    Strong rating cred
          g             dibility and b
                                     brand presennce: CARE’s brand repres                 evel of rating credibility,
                                                                            sents a high le
    as ratings display high ordinality In order fo ratings to b used as a reliable indi
                        h             y.         or             be                        icator of cred risk, the
                                                                                                       dit
    compa any believe that it is critical for a rating agency to demonstr
                        t                                                   rate, over a period of tim strong
                                                                                                        me,
    correla
          ation between the actual pe
                        n             erformance o the rating it assigns and what the rating itself conv
                                                 of                                                    veys. Since
    2007, it has publish default an transition s
                       hed           nd          studies evaluaating the perf
                                                                            formance of raatings, with m
                                                                                                       most recent
    default and transitio study published in 2012 covering the nine year p
           t            on                        2             e          period from March 31, 2003 to March
    31, 2012.
    Strong financial position and profitability Since inco
          g             p              d              y:          orporation in April 1993, CARE has completed
    19,058 rating assig
          8             gnments and has rated Rs 44,036.03 billion of deb as of September 30, 20
                                                     s.                       bt                       012. It had
    ratings relationships with 4,644 c
          s             s              clients as of S
                                                     September 30 2012. The v
                                                                0,            volume of deb rated by the company
                                                                                           bt          e
    increas from Rs. 4,325.84 billi as of Mar 31, 2008 to Rs. 9,268.61 billion as of March 31, 2012, at a
           sed                          ion          rch
    CAGR of 21.0% du
         R              uring such pe  eriod. CARE posted unco  onsolidated to income o Rs. 2,171.9 mn and
                                                                              otal        of           93
    PAT o Rs. 1,157.0 million in FY12. The co
          of            02                            ompany postted strong EBBITDA margin of 81.3%, 7
                                                                                           n           76.4% and
    75.3%, respectively for the financial years 2
                        y,                           2010, 2011 an 2012. It has posted EB
                                                                 nd                       BITDA margin of 74.9%
                                                                                                       n
    and 699.0%, respect tively, for the FY12 and the six months e
                                                     e           ended Septem  mber 30, 2012.
Objects o the Issue
        of
    1. Th objects of the Offer are to carry out the sa of 7,199,700 Equity Shares by t
        he            f                   y              ale                                  the Selling
       Sh
        hareholders and to achiev the benefit of listing th Equity Sh
                     a          ve          ts            he         hares on the Stock Excha anges. The
       Co
        ompany will not receive any proceeds from the O   Offer, and all proceeds s
                                                                                  shall go to t
                                                                                              the Selling
       Sh
        hareholders.
Investme Risks
       ent
(Please re to the RH for a comp
         efer      HP         plete listing of risk factors)
                                             f
•    CARE business and revenues are impacte by change in the volu
          E’s                                       ed           es        ume of debt instruments issued and
     bank loans and fac cilities provide in the India debt mark Any reduc
                                       ed           an          ket.       ction in such volumes may adversely
                                                                                                   y
     affect its business, results of op
          t                           perations and financial perf
                                                                 formance.
•    Comp pany’s revenu and finan
                      ues         ncial condition are primaril linked to th demand fo rating serv
                                                n            ly           he         or           vices in the
                                   se           t           redit spreads may negative impact the issuance 
     Indian debt market. Any increas in interest rates and cr
          n                                                                          ely           e
     of deb instruments or demand f bank loans or facilities for which the company pro
          bt          s            for                                   e           ovide rating s
                                                                                                  services.
•    Comp petition may affect market share or profitability wh
                                                             hich could ha
                                                                         ave an adver
                                                                                    rse effect on business,
                                                                                                n
     financ condition and revenues
          cial                     s.




Keynote Capitals Ltd.                                                                                        Page 4
 
Peer Com
       mparison                                                                    (RsCr)

Company Name
      y                                             CRISIL          ICR
                                                                      RA             CARE
Net Sales s                                            806.9
                                                           96             207.46        190.48
Profit Afte Tax
          er                                           200.8
                                                           83              45.13        115.77
EBITDA M  Margin                                       32.5%              30.1%         71.1%
Paid up EEquity Capital                                  7.0
                                                           02              10.00         28.55
Market Ca apitalisation                                 74446              1384          2141
Latest P/E Ratio(x) - Annualised FY
          E            A          Y13                    36
                                                          6.9               30.9          21.5
Price (Rs) )                                            10223              1384           750
Face Valu ue                                                1                 10            10


Valuation
        n

CARE’s IP priced at 21.5x annualized EPS of F
        PO          2                       FY13.

Profit & L
         Loss Stateme
                    ents - Conso
                               olidated                                            (R
                                                                                    RsCr)

For Perio ended
        od                                                   30-09-2012             31-03-2012
                                                                                    3
    Income
    Revenue From Operations
            e                                                     91.21                 190.48
    Other Inc
            come                                                  12.76                  28.32
    Total Inc
            come                                                 103.97                 218.80
    Expenditture
    Employee Benefits Ex
            e          xpense                                     24.32                     41.64
    Other Expenses                                                 7.87                     13.33
    Deprecia
           ation                                                   1.91                      2.14
    Total Expenses                                                34.10                     57.11
    Restated Profit befor Tax
            d           re                                        69.88                 161.68
    Current T
            Tax                                                   19.34                  45.22
    Deferred Tax Expensee                                          0.85                   0.67
    Total Tax Expense
             x                                                    20.19                     45.89
    Minority interest                                             -0.09                      0.02
    Restated Profit after Tax
           d                                                      49.78                 115.77




Keynote Capitals Ltd.                                                                   Page 5
 
Balance S
        Sheets – Con
                   nsolidated                        (RsCr)

As at                                   30-09-2012   31-03-2012
                                                     3
    Non Cur rrent Assets
    Fixed Asssets
    Tangible Assets                          47.85        48.47
    Intangible Assets
             e                                0.30         0.60
    Goodwill on consolida
                        ation                 7.2
                                                23         7.23
    Total Fix Assets
            xed                              55.38        56.29
    Non Curr
           rent Investme
                       ents                 105.10        95.49
    Long Ter Loans and Advances
           rm          d                     12.83        11.75
    Other No Current Assets
           on                                 0.56         0.92
    Total No Current As
           on         ssets                 173.87       164.45
    Current AAssets
    Current Investments                     232.4
                                                42       170.45
    Trade Reeceivables                       52.83        15.97
    Cash and Bank Balances
            d                                28.15        70.25
    Short Ter Loans and Advances
             rm          d                    1.51         1.27
    Other Cuurrent Assets                     5.67         7.22
    Total Current Assets
                       s                    320.57       265.16
    Non Cur rrent Liabilitie
                           es
    Deferred Tax Liability (Net)              4.35         3.50
    Long term provisions
            m                                 3.66         2.28
    Total No Current Liabilities
           on                                 8.02         5.78
    Minority interest                         0.50         0.59
    Current Liabilities
    Trade Paayables                           0.05         0.09
    Other Cu
           urrent Liabilitie
                           es                54.95        39.21
    Short Ter Provisions
            rm             s                  4.31         7.10
    Total Current Liabilit
                         ties                59.31        46.40
    Net wort
           th                               426.61       376.84
    Net wort represente by:
           th           ed
    Sharehoolders' Fundss
    Share Ca
           apital                            28.55        28.55
    Share Ap
           pplication Mon
                        ney                      -            -
    Employee Stock Option Outstandi
            es                    ing            -            -
    Reserves and Surplu
             s          us
    General RReserves                       103.71       103.71
    Securities Premium
             s                                2.01         2.01
    Capital R
            Redemption Reserves
                        R                     0.2
                                                23         0.23
    Profit and Loss Account
             d                              292.11       242.34
    Total Reserves & Surplus                398.06       348.29
    Net wort
           th                               426.61       376.84



Keynote Capitals Ltd.                                   Page 6
 
Keyn
                                                note Capitals Ltd.
                                                            s
                                                    Member
                                   tock Exchang Mumbai (INB 23093053
                                  St          ge,                  39)
                            National Stock Excha
                                               ange of India Ltd. (INB 010
                                                                         0930556)
                           Over the Counter Exch
                                               hange of India Ltd. (INB 20
                                                            a            00930535)
                           Central D
                                   Depository Se
                                               ervices Ltd. (IN
                                                              N-DP-CDSL-152-2001)

                                               Re
                                                egistered Off
                                                            fice
                                                Th Ruby, 9th Fl
                                                 he           loor
                                               Senapati Bapat M
                                                              Marg
                                          Dadar (W Mumbai – 400 028.
                                                 W),
                                     T: +91-22-302
                                                 266000, F: +91
                                                              1-22-30266088
                                                                          8
                                             www
                                               w.keynotecapita
                                                             als.com




        er 
Disclaime

This repo by Keynot Capitals L
          ort           te           Ltd. is purely for informat
                                                  y            tion purpose and is base on the Re Herring
                                                                                          ed           ed
Prospectu for the pu
          us            ublic issue o the compa
                                     of            any under coverage, pub    blished financial statements, public
informatio and the rec
          on           cent analyst mmeeting of the company. N
                                                   e           Neither the infformation nor any opinion expressed
                                                                                           r
in this rep
          port constitut an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to b or sell th securities mentioned
                       tes                                                    buy         he
herein. Directors, offic
                       cers, clients o employees of Keynote Capitals or its affiliates may have p
                                     or            s          e                                       positions in
securities covered in this report or in related in
                        t            r             nvestments. Keynote Cap   pitals Ltd may also have proprietary
                                                                                           y
trading positions in securities cov
                       s             vered in this report or in related inv
                                                  s            n              vestments. OOpinions and estimates
mentioned herein, if an are based on workings of Keynote C
          d            ny,                                    Capitals only. Investors in t issue are advised to
                                                                                           the
read the RRHP carefully before subs
                       y            scribing to the issue. Keyno Capitals L or any of its directors, officers or
                                                  e            ote            Ltd.        f
employee shall not in any way be responsible for any loss arising from the use of th report. Inv
         es            n            e                                                     his          vestors are
advised to apply their own judgment before actin on the cont
          o            o                          ng           tents of this re
                                                                              eport.




Keynote Capitals Ltd.                                                                                     Page 7
 

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Credit analysis and research ipo note keynote capitals-

  • 1. I P O N O T E C r e d it A nal ys i s A n d R e sea r c h L t d . December 07, 2 012 Price Ban nd : `700 - 750 per sha are Minimum Bid Lot Size m e : 20 Equ Shares uity IPO open during ns : Dec 07 – 11, 2012 7 Book Run nning Lead Manager M : Edelw weiss Financi Service Lt DSP Merr Lynch Ltd ial td, rill d Kotak Ma ahindra Capi Company Ltd, ICICI S ital y Securities Ltd d IDBI C Capital Marke Services L et Ltd. To list on n : NSE & BSE PE : 17.3x (based on b base price)* : 18.5x (based on c price)* cap Market Cap post-listin ng : `1999 or $370m (based on the cap pric 9Cr mn n ce) Market Cap of Free Float : `2141 or $396m (based on the cap pric 1Cr mn n ce) *Based on FY12 EPS n 2mn equity shares of `10 each aggre IPO of 7.2 s 0 egating to `540Cr or $99. .2mn (at the cap price). Shareholding Pattern n    Pre-Issue Post-Issue    No. of S Shares % Holding No. of Shares % Holding Pre IPO Inv vestors 2,85 5,52,812 100.00% 2,13 3,53,112 74.78% QIBs exclu uding MFs 0 0.00% 34 4,73,855 12.17% Mutual Fun nds 0 0.00% 1,25,995 1 0.44% Non Institu utional Investors s 0 0.00% 10 0,79,955 3.78% Public 0 0.00% 25 5,19,895 8.83% Total 2,85 5,52,812 100.00% 2,85 5,52,812 100.00% Executive Summary e CARE is a leading, full service cred rating com dit mpany in India and for the year ended March 31, 20 a, e 012, it was the secon largest rating company in India in te nd y erms of rating turnover. T Company offers a wid range of g The y de rating and grading serv d vices across a diverse rang of instruments and indu ge ustries. Credit rating is a mandatory requirement for iss suance of deb instrument in India, wh bt ts hich make it a lucrative business. Further, the rapid growth has seen in t internation markets w the nal which include fast growing Asia. CARE is t second la the argest rating company in I rnover for the year ended March 31, India in terms of rating tur s e 2012. It is the leading credit rating agency in Ind for IPO gr s dia rading, and ggraded larges number of I st IPOs since the introduction of IPO grading in India. CARE has long track record of 19 y r years in rating business. It enjoys a stro market p g t ong position with r relationship with 4,644 clients as of September 3 2012. 4 f 30, CRISIL w acquired by S&P and IC was b CRA by Mood dy’s, which lim their exp mits pansion in the global marke as S&P e ets and Mood dy’s have already presen nce in many countries. H However, CA ARE is well s to expand in many set d countries.. The comp pany’s IPO prriced at 21.5x annualized EPS of FY13 which is far inexpensive vis-à-vis pee CRISIL x 3, r e ers which trad at 36.9x and ICRA 30.9x to annualized EPS for F des a FY13. Keynote Capitals Ltd. Page 1  
  • 2. Our View w We recom mmend investors to invest in CARE IPO on account o inexpensive valuation. O of e Company Backgroun y nd CARE is a leading, full service cred rating com dit mpany in India and for the year ended March 31, 20 a, e 012, it was the secon largest rating company in India in te nd y erms of rating turnover. T Company offers a wid range of g The y de rating and grading serv d vices across a diverse ran of instrum nge ments and inddustries. It als provides general and so customize industry research repo ed r orts. Since incorporation in April 199 it has co 93, ompleted 19,058 rating assignme ents and has been rated Rs. 44,036.03 billion of debt as of September 3 2012. It had rating 30, hips with 4,64 clients as of Septemb 30, 2012 The Company’s existing shareholde include relationsh 44 s ber 2. ers domestic banks and finnancial institutions, such as IDBI Bank, Canara Bank SBI and IL& s k, &FS, among oothers. Promoter and Manag rs gement Mr. D.R. D aging Directo and Chief Executive O Dogra (Mana or Officer) Mr. Rajes Mokashi (Deputy Mana sh aging Director) Mr. P.N. S Sathees Kum (Chief Ge mar eneral Manag Ratings) ger, ) Industry Overview Global Cr redit Rating Industry Evolution n The credit rating busin ness traces its origins to th mercantile credit agenc s he e cies in the Un nited States o America. of Their func ction was to rate merchan ability to honour their financial obligations. The first such ag nts’ e gency was establishe in New York in 1841 by Louis Ta ed Y appan. Robe Dun subs ert sequently acqquired the ag gency and published its first rating guide in 1859. A simila mercantile rating agenc was formed by John Br gs ar cy d radstreet in 1849. The expansion of the ratings business to securities ra e o s ating began in 1909 when John Moody started to n y rate US r railroad bonds and subse s, equently utility and industrial bonds. Po y oor’s Publishing Company issued its y first rating in 1916, St gs stics Company in 1922, and the Fitch Publishing Com tandard Statis mpany in 192 In 1941, 24. Poor’s Pu ublishing and Standard S d Statistics mergged to becom Standard & Poor's Co me orp. Other innternational rating age encies include Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd (JCR and A.M. B e RA) Best amongst others. The Cred Rating Ind dit dustry in Indi ia In India, the first credit rating agenc Credit Rating and Infor t cy, rmation Servi ices of India Limited (“CRISIL”), was set up in 1987. A sec cond rating a agency, ICRA Limited (the known as, Investment Information and Credit A en Rating Ag gency of India Limited) (“IC a CRA”) was esstablished in 1991 and a th agency, CARE, was e hird established in 1993. D Duff and Phe elps Credit Rating India (P Limited wh P) hich started its operations in 1996 was renamed s s Fitch Ratiings India Private Limited (Fitch) in 200 and renam again to India Ratings and Research Private 01 med s Limited in 2012. Brickw n works Ratings India Private Limited (Bri s e ickworks) beg its rating business in 2 gan 2008. SME Rating Ag gency of India Limited (SMERA) also be a egan its rating business in 2008. g Historicall bank credit has been a major sourc of funding for the corpo ly, ce orates. Banks in India enj relative s joy advantage of extending loans as different from investing in debt papers, w e which are not required to b ‘marked t be to market’. This provides them with an advantag in the rising interest rate scenario. Banks in India also enjoy ge g e the benef of lower cost of funding as the interest on savings deposits is r fit s regulated. Th growth in b his bank credit has led to growth in de issuances by banks in India. These banks have raised consid o ebt s derable amounts of debt from mark to meet gr ket rowing capital requirement either by issuing Tier-II b ts ssuing hybrid bonds. bonds or by is within Basel II, the second of the Base Accords wh Further, w d el hich contains recommendations on banking laws s and regul lations issued by the Bas Committe on banking supervision various ap d sel ee n, pproaches for banks to determine credit risk have been pre e escribed with progressively increasing r y risk sensitivity The RBI introduced a y. phased approach to th implement he tation of Base II in India. In the first st el tage, Indian b banks were r required by the RBI t adopt a ‘standardized approach’ f credit risk. Under the ‘standardized approach the RBI to ‘ d for e h’, recognize certain rating agencies a eligible cre rating age ed as edit encies and In ndian banks a required to use such are o Keynote Capitals Ltd. Page 2  
  • 3. eligible cr redit rating ag gencies to ass sess their credit risk in order to determin complianc with capital adequacy ne ce requireme ents. Business Operations s s CARE is primarily engaged in the b business of providing ratin services. T company also provide research ng The es services and risk ma anagement so olutions (thro ough Subsidiary). It is ex xpanding foo otprint internaationally to provide raating service in other c es countries and technologica assistance services to other rating agencies al e o g located ouutside of India.  CARE’s un nconsolidated total income has increas from Rs. 549.11mn for the FY08 d e sed to Rs.2, 171.93mn for the FY12 at a CAGR of 4 41% during such period; a unconsoli and idated total in ncome was Rs. 1,0255.38 million fo the six mon or nths ended S September 30 2012. The company’s P 0, PAT has incre eased from Rs. 266.8 mn for the FY08 to Rs. 1 85 1,157.02 million for FY12 a a CAGR of 44.3% during such period and PAT at f d, was Rs. 5500.49mn for the six month ended Sep hs ptember 30, 22012.  The comp pany engage in the follo ed owing business operatio ons Rese earch Service es R Risk Managem ment service es Rating Ser rvices CARE Ltd. C The follow wing table se out key o ets highlights for the periods indicated: operational h s Dur ring the six mon nths ended During the f financial yea ended Mar 31, ar rch Sep ptember 30, 2009 2010 2011 2 20 012 2012 Total new assignments completed w 1,579 1,808 2,187 5,980 3,237 Total deb instruments cumulatively rated (up bt to the ye ended March 31 / six m ear months 5,452 7,206 9,225 14 4,524 17,237 ended September 30) ) Total vol lume of debt rated (Rs. in Billions) r 5,910.66 6,527.00 6 8,0 068.78 9,26 68.61 3,571.20 Total ind dustry researc reports com ch mpleted 58 134 167 205 2 136 Total eco onomic resea arch reports completed* 11 19 60 73 7 39 * Excludes t the Daily Debt Market Update, w M which is published four days a w week from Tues sday to Friday, a and the Debt Ma arket Review, which is pub blished monthly. CARE ent tered into a non-binding m n memorandum of understand ding with four credit rating agencies, ea located r ach in Brazil, Portugal, Ma alaysia and South Africa, t establish a international credit ratin agency, which would to an ng provide innternational scale ratings to assist loca issuers in mobilizing re s al esources from internationa financial m al markets. The compan received a no object ny tion letter fro SEBI to enter into a joint ventu om ure for the establishmment of an in nternational credit rating agency, subject to satisfac ction of certain conditions mentioned therein. Keynote Capitals Ltd. Page 3  
  • 4. Strengths s Establ lished prese ence in rating debt instr ruments and bank loans and facilitie CARE ha over 19 d s es: as years o experience in rating deb instruments and related obligations c of e bt s covering a wid range of se de ectors, and as of SSeptember 30 2012, The company ha rating relat 0, ad tionships with 4,644 clients. It is well equipped to h rate mmost kinds of short, medium and long f g-term debt instruments, such as com mmercial pap per, bonds, debent ence shares a structured debt instrum tures, prefere and ments; bank loans and fac cilities, both f fund-based and non fund-based; and dep posit obligatio ons, such a inter-corpo as orate deposit fixed dep ts, posits and certific cates of depossit. Domai experienc across a range of se in ce ectors: CARE has rated d E debt instrumeents covering a diverse g range of sectors, su as manuf uch facturing, ser rvices, banks and infrastru ucture. It has experience in providing n debt aand issuer ratings to man types of e ny enterprises, in porates, bank financial institutions, ncluding corp ks, public sector undertakings, stat governme undertakin te ent ngs, sub-sovvereign entitie NBFCs, S es, SMEs and micro-ffinance institu utions. Strong rating cred g dibility and b brand presennce: CARE’s brand repres evel of rating credibility, sents a high le as ratings display high ordinality In order fo ratings to b used as a reliable indi h y. or be icator of cred risk, the dit compa any believe that it is critical for a rating agency to demonstr t rate, over a period of tim strong me, correla ation between the actual pe n erformance o the rating it assigns and what the rating itself conv of veys. Since 2007, it has publish default an transition s hed nd studies evaluaating the perf formance of raatings, with m most recent default and transitio study published in 2012 covering the nine year p t on 2 e period from March 31, 2003 to March 31, 2012. Strong financial position and profitability Since inco g p d y: orporation in April 1993, CARE has completed 19,058 rating assig 8 gnments and has rated Rs 44,036.03 billion of deb as of September 30, 20 s. bt 012. It had ratings relationships with 4,644 c s s clients as of S September 30 2012. The v 0, volume of deb rated by the company bt e increas from Rs. 4,325.84 billi as of Mar 31, 2008 to Rs. 9,268.61 billion as of March 31, 2012, at a sed ion rch CAGR of 21.0% du R uring such pe eriod. CARE posted unco onsolidated to income o Rs. 2,171.9 mn and otal of 93 PAT o Rs. 1,157.0 million in FY12. The co of 02 ompany postted strong EBBITDA margin of 81.3%, 7 n 76.4% and 75.3%, respectively for the financial years 2 y, 2010, 2011 an 2012. It has posted EB nd BITDA margin of 74.9% n and 699.0%, respect tively, for the FY12 and the six months e e ended Septem mber 30, 2012. Objects o the Issue of 1. Th objects of the Offer are to carry out the sa of 7,199,700 Equity Shares by t he f y ale the Selling Sh hareholders and to achiev the benefit of listing th Equity Sh a ve ts he hares on the Stock Excha anges. The Co ompany will not receive any proceeds from the O Offer, and all proceeds s shall go to t the Selling Sh hareholders. Investme Risks ent (Please re to the RH for a comp efer HP plete listing of risk factors) f • CARE business and revenues are impacte by change in the volu E’s ed es ume of debt instruments issued and bank loans and fac cilities provide in the India debt mark Any reduc ed an ket. ction in such volumes may adversely y affect its business, results of op t perations and financial perf formance. • Comp pany’s revenu and finan ues ncial condition are primaril linked to th demand fo rating serv n ly he or vices in the se t redit spreads may negative impact the issuance  Indian debt market. Any increas in interest rates and cr n ely e of deb instruments or demand f bank loans or facilities for which the company pro bt s for e ovide rating s services. • Comp petition may affect market share or profitability wh hich could ha ave an adver rse effect on business, n financ condition and revenues cial s. Keynote Capitals Ltd. Page 4  
  • 5. Peer Com mparison (RsCr) Company Name y CRISIL ICR RA CARE Net Sales s 806.9 96 207.46 190.48 Profit Afte Tax er 200.8 83 45.13 115.77 EBITDA M Margin 32.5% 30.1% 71.1% Paid up EEquity Capital 7.0 02 10.00 28.55 Market Ca apitalisation 74446 1384 2141 Latest P/E Ratio(x) - Annualised FY E A Y13 36 6.9 30.9 21.5 Price (Rs) ) 10223 1384 750 Face Valu ue 1 10 10 Valuation n CARE’s IP priced at 21.5x annualized EPS of F PO 2 FY13. Profit & L Loss Stateme ents - Conso olidated (R RsCr) For Perio ended od 30-09-2012 31-03-2012 3 Income Revenue From Operations e 91.21 190.48 Other Inc come 12.76 28.32 Total Inc come 103.97 218.80 Expenditture Employee Benefits Ex e xpense 24.32 41.64 Other Expenses 7.87 13.33 Deprecia ation 1.91 2.14 Total Expenses 34.10 57.11 Restated Profit befor Tax d re 69.88 161.68 Current T Tax 19.34 45.22 Deferred Tax Expensee 0.85 0.67 Total Tax Expense x 20.19 45.89 Minority interest -0.09 0.02 Restated Profit after Tax d 49.78 115.77 Keynote Capitals Ltd. Page 5  
  • 6. Balance S Sheets – Con nsolidated (RsCr) As at 30-09-2012 31-03-2012 3 Non Cur rrent Assets Fixed Asssets Tangible Assets 47.85 48.47 Intangible Assets e 0.30 0.60 Goodwill on consolida ation 7.2 23 7.23 Total Fix Assets xed 55.38 56.29 Non Curr rent Investme ents 105.10 95.49 Long Ter Loans and Advances rm d 12.83 11.75 Other No Current Assets on 0.56 0.92 Total No Current As on ssets 173.87 164.45 Current AAssets Current Investments 232.4 42 170.45 Trade Reeceivables 52.83 15.97 Cash and Bank Balances d 28.15 70.25 Short Ter Loans and Advances rm d 1.51 1.27 Other Cuurrent Assets 5.67 7.22 Total Current Assets s 320.57 265.16 Non Cur rrent Liabilitie es Deferred Tax Liability (Net) 4.35 3.50 Long term provisions m 3.66 2.28 Total No Current Liabilities on 8.02 5.78 Minority interest 0.50 0.59 Current Liabilities Trade Paayables 0.05 0.09 Other Cu urrent Liabilitie es 54.95 39.21 Short Ter Provisions rm s 4.31 7.10 Total Current Liabilit ties 59.31 46.40 Net wort th 426.61 376.84 Net wort represente by: th ed Sharehoolders' Fundss Share Ca apital 28.55 28.55 Share Ap pplication Mon ney - - Employee Stock Option Outstandi es ing - - Reserves and Surplu s us General RReserves 103.71 103.71 Securities Premium s 2.01 2.01 Capital R Redemption Reserves R 0.2 23 0.23 Profit and Loss Account d 292.11 242.34 Total Reserves & Surplus 398.06 348.29 Net wort th 426.61 376.84 Keynote Capitals Ltd. Page 6  
  • 7. Keyn note Capitals Ltd. s Member tock Exchang Mumbai (INB 23093053 St ge, 39) National Stock Excha ange of India Ltd. (INB 010 0930556) Over the Counter Exch hange of India Ltd. (INB 20 a 00930535) Central D Depository Se ervices Ltd. (IN N-DP-CDSL-152-2001) Re egistered Off fice Th Ruby, 9th Fl he loor Senapati Bapat M Marg Dadar (W Mumbai – 400 028. W), T: +91-22-302 266000, F: +91 1-22-30266088 8 www w.keynotecapita als.com er  Disclaime This repo by Keynot Capitals L ort te Ltd. is purely for informat y tion purpose and is base on the Re Herring ed ed Prospectu for the pu us ublic issue o the compa of any under coverage, pub blished financial statements, public informatio and the rec on cent analyst mmeeting of the company. N e Neither the infformation nor any opinion expressed r in this rep port constitut an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to b or sell th securities mentioned tes buy he herein. Directors, offic cers, clients o employees of Keynote Capitals or its affiliates may have p or s e positions in securities covered in this report or in related in t r nvestments. Keynote Cap pitals Ltd may also have proprietary y trading positions in securities cov s vered in this report or in related inv s n vestments. OOpinions and estimates mentioned herein, if an are based on workings of Keynote C d ny, Capitals only. Investors in t issue are advised to the read the RRHP carefully before subs y scribing to the issue. Keyno Capitals L or any of its directors, officers or e ote Ltd. f employee shall not in any way be responsible for any loss arising from the use of th report. Inv es n e his vestors are advised to apply their own judgment before actin on the cont o o ng tents of this re eport. Keynote Capitals Ltd. Page 7