1. Exploring the Impacts of Climate Change on
Public Health: AHeat VulnerabilityAnalysis of
Globeville, Elyria-Swansea, and Commerce City using
Geographic Information Systems
Katherine C. Vega
Master of Public Health, Colorado State University
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3. Climate Change
• Extreme weather events more frequent and/or severe
around the world.
• From 2011 to 2013, the U.S. experienced 32 weather
events that each caused at least $1 billion in damages.
NOAA, 2013
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6. Health Impacts of Extreme Heat
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Worsened Asthma
Fainting
Heat Stroke
Headaches
7. Heat and the Built Environment
• Urban heat island effect
High pop.
density
Building
material that
retains heat
High rates of
heat related
morbidity and
mortality
Karl et al., 2010
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9. Mission:
To bring about the sustained improvement of the physical
environment and promote health and well-being through
community-based partnerships and action.
Services Include:
• Installing attic insulation
• Tree plantings
• Bike Give-Aways
GWD, 2016
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10. Project Objective
• Assess vulnerabilities to extreme heat events by
exploring factors in the built environment using
geographic information system (GIS) and key informant
interviews.
• Mixed-methods study
Focus Populations:
Globeville
Elyria-Swansea
Commerce City
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11. Methods
Data Collection
• GIS Maps
• Variables:
Tree Canopy
Urban Heat Island Effect
Housing Stock
Median Household Income
% Below Poverty
Age Distribution
Crime Rates
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16. Data Source: Tree Canopy Assessment 2013 – Block Groups
City Total Land
Cover Area
minus
Industrial
Land (sq.
km)
% Tree
Canopy of
Total Land
Cover minus
Industrial
Land
%
Grass
(of
Total
land
Cover)
% Bare
Soil (of
Total
land
Cover)
% Buildings
(of Total
land Cover)
% Impervious
Surfaces (of
Total Land
Cover)
% Roads
(of Total
Land
Cover)
% Water
(of Total
Land
Cover)
Globeville 5.12 10% 9% 4% 13% 46% 19% 0%
Elyria Swansea 3.07 17% 13% 4% 10% 40% 20% 2%
Cory-Merrill 3.95 29% 18% 2% 12% 25% 14% 0%
Commerce City 1.969 22% 20% 9% 10% 25% 16% 0%
Westwood 3.79 20% 21% 4% 10% 29% 17% 0%
Skyland 2.168 19% 41% 2% 7% 18% 13% 4%
Land Use Percentages
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18. Conclusions
• Focus populations are disproportionately
affected by extreme heat events due to built
environment factors.
• Large areas of urban heat islands
• Sparse tree canopy in residential areas
• Lack of weatherized homes (Globeville and
Elyria-Swansea)
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19. Next Steps
• Develop a Plan of Action to influence:
• Denver Climate Adaptation Plan
• Emergency Management Plans
• Hazard Mitigation Plans
• Comprehensive Plans
22
20. Limitations
• GIS data availability
• Incorrect data uploaded
• GIS software compatibility
• Unable to pilot test survey
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22. References
• NOAA (2013). Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center.
• NOAA. (2015). State Annual and Seasonal Time Series. Retrieved April 25, 2016, from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/state-temps/
• NOAA (2016). State of the Climate: Global Analysis for February 2016, published online March 2016, retrieved on April 25, 2016 from
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/gobal/201602
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2015). Extreme Heat Prevention Guide. Retrieved from
http://www.bt.cdc.gov.hslezproxy.ucdenver.edu/disasters/extremeheat/heat_guide.asp.
• Champion V.L., & Skinner C.S. (2008). The Health Belief Model. In Health behavior and health education theory, research, and practice (4th ed., pp. 45-65).
San Francisco, California: Jossey-Bass.
• Choudhary, E., & Vaidyanathan, A. (2014). Heat Stress Illness Hospitalizations-Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, 20 States, 2001–2010.
MMWR Surveillance Summaries 2014; 63(13), 1-10.
• Chowdhury, P.D., C. E. Haque & S.M. Driedger (2012) Public versus expert knowledge and perception of climate change-induced heat wave risk: a modified
mental model approach. Journal of Risk Research, 15:2, 149-168, DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2011.601319
• Merrill, C.T. (Thomson Reuters), Miller, M (Student), and Steiner, C. (AHRQ). (2008). Hospital Stays Resulting from Excessive Heat and Cold Exposure Due
to Weather Conditions in U.S. Community Hospitals, 2005. HCUP Statistical Brief #55. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, MD.
http://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb55.pdf
• Karl, T.R., Melillo, J.M., and Peterson, T.C. (eds.) (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, New York.
• McGeehin, M.A., & Mirabelli M. (2001). The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United
States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109(Suppl 2), 185-189.
• Groundwork Denver. (2016). Mision and History. Retrieved April 25, 2016 from http://groundworkcolorado.org/about/mission-and-history/
• Witte, K. (1992). Putting the fear back into fear appeals: The extended parallel process model. Communication Monographs, 59, 330-349.
Images and Graphs
• https://www.sitstayread.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/denver.jpg
• http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110907/images/weathers450.jpg
• http://www.sciencecare.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Heat-Stroke.jpg
• https://www.doomandbloom.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/heat-stroke-1.jpg
• http://medicalxpress.com/news/2016-04-extreme-precipitation-linked-severe-asthma.html
• http://www.wisegeek.com/what-are-the-common-causes-of-headache-and-weakness.htm#
• http://images.wisegeek.com/old-man.jpg
• https://casemed.case.edu/fammed/img/family_131902826.jpg
• http://cdn.grid.fotosearch.com/corbis/DGT096/42-18054184.jpg
• http://littlepeanutmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/SLP_PotteryBarnKids_SummerParty3.jpg
• https://www.thinglink.com/scene/756099807562432512
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The winter global temperature was 2.03°F above the 20th century average. This was the hottest winter on record
The globally-averaged temperature across land surfaces was also the highest on record for December–February, 3.47°F above the 20th century average.
From 2011-2014, the U.S. has experienced increases in mean temperature of up to 2-4°F (NOAA, 2015)
This map shows average temp increase over a decade
- As you can see some states have experienced a 2-4 °F increase from the century average
In the U.S., extreme Heat is the is the most common cause of weather related human mortality (CDC, 2015).
Extreme heat caused 7,415 heat-related deaths in the United States from 1999 to 2010, killing more people than hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and lightning combined (CDC, 2015).
According to the Environ Public Health Tracking Reporting System, from 2001-2010, there were an est. 28,000 hospitalizations in 20 U.S. states (Choudhary & Vaidyanathan, 2014).
Heat-related morbidities include heat exhaustion, headaches, fainting, heat stroke, aggravated asthma/respiratory symptoms caused by sunlight and heat mixing with air pollutants to create harmful ozone.
In 2005 alone, hospitalizations cost $38.7 million with half of these costs billed to Medicare/Medicaid (Merrill et al., 2008).
LOWESS (locally weighted scatterplot smoothing)
Cities can be up to 10 degrees warmer than surrounding rural areas and can maintain warmer temperatures throughout the night.
Tall buildings reduce potentially cooling air flows.
Urban environments often lack trees and other vegetation that provide shade and increase cooling through evaporation.
(http://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/pubs/ClimateChangeandExtremeHeatEvents.pdf)
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v532/n7599/full/nature17441.html
Cities less adapted to high temperatures and thus less prepared (McGeehin & Mirabelli, 2001).
Socially vulnerable populations
Lack access to resources
Do not speak English
Persons from lower SES
Physically vulnerable
Elderly experience a decline in cardiac output and capacity to redistribute blood to the skin thereby reducing the efficiency which heat can be dissipated.
These neighborhoods are the focus because they are exposed to diesel particulate emissions from the transportation corridors (I-25 and I-70) and 32% of residents live below the federal poverty level.
Predominately Spanish- speaking
Comparison neighborhoods were included to contrast with the high risk area.
Commerce Census tracts 08001008705, …06
A GIS incorporates data capturing hardware and software based on various geographic projections and coordinate systems.
GIS lets us visualize, question, analyze, and interpret data to understand relationships, patterns, and trends. This helps us to better understand situations and tell a story about the area we are mapping.
Mapping data also allows us to test new hypotheses that might not have been evident from just looking at data tables.
Public surveys have found that people mention greater susceptibility of family members instead of themselves to extreme heat risks (Chowdury et al., 2012).
Furthermore, individuals were found to only adjust their activities for 1-2 days because their perceived threat began to decrease as an extreme heat event continued (Luber & McGeehin, 2008)
Perceived barrier high cost of running an A/C or not having one at all (Luber & McGeehin, 2008)
Self-efficacy the perceived ability to perform a behaviors to get the intended results (Champion & Skinner, 2008)
Response-efficacy the extent to which people believe precautionary measures can prevent a health threat (In this case heat stroke or other heat-related morbidities and mortalities) (Witte, 1992 1994).
UHI Map created using ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro radiometer)
satellite data widely used to record LST because of their high spatial and spectral resolution.
Data were collected with the same satellite (i.e., NASA’s Terra mission) for September 25, 2007.
Terra is the flagship satellite of NASA's Earth observing systems. Terra is the first EOS (Earth Observing System) platform and provides global data on the state of the atmosphere, land, and oceans, as well as their interactions with solar radiation and with one another.
Housing built before 1970…poor insulation
CO changed its energy code in 1978 but nation-wide the new energy code (Energy Conservation and Production Act) went into effect 1976
- Authorizing weatherization for low-income homes (insulation, caulking and weather stripping, replacement A/Cs…)
