This document summarizes a dissertation on electrifying surface transport in Oahu, Hawaii. It presents three scenarios for electric vehicle adoption rates from 2013 to 2045 and calculates the resulting reductions in fossil fuel emissions and potential increases in grid emissions. The key findings are that a high adoption scenario of 54% electric vehicles by 2045 could reduce emissions by 28 megatons of CO2, but this high rate is necessary to fully transition to electric vehicles and realize savings. However, increased electricity demand from electric vehicles risks negating these savings if the grid remains dependent on fossil fuels. Fully coupling electric vehicles with renewable energy generation, as aimed for in Hawaii's 100% renewable energy goal, is needed to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions from

1. Electrifying Surface Transport:
in Oahu, Hawai'i
Katelin Hanson
August 2015
Dissertation for MSc in Carbon Management

2. Presentation Overview
 Context: Knowledge Share
 Inputs and Methodology
 Key Findings
 Conclusions
 Recommendations
 Take-Homes

3. Context
ScotlandHawai’i
 Edinburgh Centre for Carbon
Innovation (ECCI)
 Orkney Electric Future
project
 Global outlook
 Increased EV rollout
 Free parking + HOV
 Target 100% renewable energy
by 2045
 Economic benefits
 63% State’s surface transport
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Aim determine CO2 savings from surface electrification in Oahu, Hawai’i
Knowledge Share

4. Research Gaps
 Scotland: 100% renewable by 2020
 Hawai’i: 100% renewable by 2045
Gaps:
1. Added electricity to the grid and
2. Associated emissions
3. Decreased emissions from fossil fuel
vehicles
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5. Methodology: Setup
 Datasets: Oahu-specific
 Fleet Projections  2013 Taxed and Exempt Vehicles
 Emission Projections  Fuel-Type: ‘Passenger’ and ‘Freight’
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Vehicle % Oahu’s Fleet
Cars 82%
LGVs 13%
Motorcycles 3%
HGVs 1.7%
Buses 0.3%
Table 1. Framework categories
 Scenario projections 2013-2045
 Scenario 1: low uptake 10%
 Scenario 2: moderate uptake 33%
 Scenario 3: high uptake 54%
 Transition Period to 100%
electrification (Cars and LGVs)
 Caveat: case sensitive

6. 4
Methods
Vehicle
Type
Scenario 1
2045
Scenario 2
2045
Scenario 3
2045
Electric
Cars 81,000 267,000 436,000
LGVs 12,000 41,000 66,000
Fossil Fuel
Cars 727,000 541,000 372,000
LGVs 111,000 82,000 57,000
Total Fleet
(BAU)
931,000 931,000 931,000
Projections
Passenger and LGVs from 2013-2045
 Forecasted Population
 Vehicle per capita rate
 Back trajectory
Fossil Fuel Emissions
 Fuel type and emission
factors
Table 2. Scenario Projections, rounded values

7. 5
Methods
Projections
Passenger and LGVs from 2013-2045
 Forecasted Population
 Vehicle per capita rate
 Back trajectory
Fossil Fuel Emissions
 Fuel type and emission
factors
Grid Emissions Calculations
Electricity Demand from EVs
 Vehicle Miles Travelled (8, 760 mi/yr)
 Average conversion rate (0.32 kWh/mi)

8. Key Results
 Transition Period (100%) only feasible in Scenario 3
 Assumption: RE supplies EVs Fossil Fuel Emissions
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Figure 1. Projected emissions in 2045

9. Key Results
 Transition Period (100%) only feasible in Scenario 3
 Assumption: RE supplies EVs Fossil Fuel Emissions
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Emissions Mt CO2
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
BAU 98 - 98 - 98 -
FFV 93 = 81 = 70 =
CO2 Savings 5 17 28
Table 3. 2013-2045 Sum Total Emissions

10. Key Results
 Assumption: no RE  Grid Emissions
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Emissions Mt CO2
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
BAU 98 - 98 - 98 -
FFV 93 = 81 = 70 =
CO2 Savings 5 17 28
Grid CO2 emissions 5 17 27
Table 3. 2013-2045 Sum Total Emissions
Figure 2. Oahu’s ‘Stuck in the Middle’ electricity demand with added EV demand
 18%

11. Key Results
 Assumption: no RE  Grid Emissions
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Emissions Mt CO2
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
BAU 98 - 98 - 98 -
FFV 93 = 81 = 70 =
CO2 Savings 5 17 28
Grid CO2 emissions 5 17 27
Table 3. 2013-2045 Sum Total Emissions

12. 10
Results Interpreted
 January 2015 EVs
 Reality: 2,382
 Projected: 6,600 (S1); 18,200 (S2); 29,000 (S3)
 0.19% EV fleet contribution 2013
 HCEI analysis Booz Allen Hamilton (2008) reductions from BAU
 EV uptake rate (69%)  4.3 Mt CO2 by 2030 (HI)
 Scenario 3 (54%)  1.71 Mt CO2 by 2045 (Oahu)
 Grid Carbon Intensity  Scenario 3
 Oahu must consider infiltration rates >54% to reduce GHGs
 HB 623 great potential for EV adoption

13. Assumptions and Limitations
 Datasets
 Fleet data did not differentiate between exempt vehicles
 7% variation between taxed
 IRP ‘Stuck in the Middle’  Blazing a bold frontier (HB 623)
 Vehicle Turnover Rate: 0.4% (linked with population growth)
 IRP: annual growth rate for vehicles 4%
 HCEI: 5% annually
 Underestimated, but operational?
 ‘No RE’  9% renewables currently Oahu (21% HI)
 Fuel data show EVs on a rise, while gasoline vehicles
decreasing average 1.1% each month
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14. Orkney
Hawai’iKnowledge Share
Scotland -- Hawai’i
 Infiltration rates
 Transition Period
 Best practices (state-wide
and internationally)
 Hawai’i limitations
 Petroleum dependent
 Requires coupled RE
generation
 Demand over potential
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Conclusions
Figure 3. Electricity potential supply and demand (GWh)
 Caveats
 Smaller population
 Net exporter of RE
 CO2 reporting

15. 1. Research required
 RE coupling + Grid connectivity
 Financial implications and incentives
2. CO2 emitted from utility sector nearly negated
potential CO2 savings
3. Transition Period to 100%: Rate >54%
4. HB 623 (100% RE by 2045)
 Potential to save: 5, 17 and 28 Mt CO2
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Conclusions: take-homes

16. Thank you!
Katelin Hanson