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The World This Week
August 31 – September 05, 2015
Equity View:
The US jobs data released last week was encouraging due to which investors are expecting a rate hike by Fed.
Actually, one would associate good jobs data with strengthening of economy but, in the near term contest
between short term gains expected by speculators and long term benefits expected by investors, the market
always favors short term. So while robust jobs data is good for the US economy in the longer term, near term
always trims over it. Thus, there might be some nervousness in the market but there is an expectation that
markets would bottom out in this week.
There are 6 – 7 trading sessions left before Fed rate hike decision so markets would see more action this week.
As parliament is not in session global news will drive the market. The next one month would be results season
and commentary from Infrastructure oriented companies because some amount of front loading in infra
spending has been seen. The market outlook for very near term is dependent on Fed’s action on interest rate
and we can see some more correction in Indian markets. The outlook for slightly medium term will be
dependent on results season and commentary from Infra sector and for a longer term we are bullish on
markets. There is actually panic across Indian equity markets because from the fundamental point of view
there is not much of a concern but investors should always be ready to take downside risk of 10 – 12% in
equity markets. This volatility is an intrinsic character of equity markets.
For debt markets to provide risk adjusted returns there should be reduction of 100 – 150 bps in interest rates
and if this reduction happens then even equity markets will perform better. One Rank One Pension (OROP)
will lead to higher fiscal deficit but deficit financing of such a large amount is not a great idea because this
expenditure will be recurring in nature. Although, certain sectors of economy like Automobiles, Consumer
durables etc will benefit out of it.
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
 India’s Gross Domestic Product grew 7% during the June quarter of FY15-16, slower than 7.5% seen
in the previous quarter but slightly faster than 6.7% recorded a year ago.
 According to the Finance Minister, the Government has decided not to levy Minimum Alternate Tax
on capital gains made by Foreign Institutional Investors retrospectively.
 According to the Minister of State for Labour and Employment, the Central Government has released Rs.
2,000 crore to Employees' Pension Scheme as its contribution for the year 2015-16.
 The insurance regulator has decided to digitise its entire product approval process - for both life and
general insurance products by the end of year.
GLOBAL MACRO
EURO
 The European Central Bank (ECB) in its monetary policy review left its interest rates unchanged at
a record low of 0.05%.
 The ECB also revised its growth forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.5% seen in June. The
projection for next year was cut to 1.7% from 1.9%.
United States
 The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 bps during the week to close at 2.13% compared
to the previous week’s close of 2.18%.
 US non-farm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 173000 in August compared to a revised 245000 in July;
unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in August.
China
 China's official Manufacturing PMI fell to its weakest level since 2012 as it edged down to 49.7 in
August from 50 in July which further raised concerns over China’s economy.
Indices:
Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck
31/08/15 26,283 10,734 17,865 19,637 11,048 16,150 7,788 17,962 11,161 7,446 8,878 1,834 1,261 6,097
1/9/2015 25,696 10,524 17,392 18,924 10,776 15,708 7,653 17,698 11,047 7,205 8,691 1,796 1,221 6,015
2/9/2015 25,454 10,437 17,154 18,581 10,665 15,443 7,679 17,546 11,184 7,108 8,581 1,752 1,229 6,074
3/9/2015 25,765 10,560 17,383 18,940 10,727 15,749 7,707 17,561 11,233 7,281 8,662 1,784 1,285 6,105
4/9/2015 25,202 10,360 16,983 18,438 10,640 15,433 7,611 17,136 10,970 7,117 8,540 1,730 1,242 5,990
-4.11% -3.49% -4.94% -6.11% -3.70% -4.44% -2.28% -4.60% -1.71% -4.42% -3.81% -5.69% -1.45% -1.75%
Commodities and Currency:
Date USD GBP EURO YEN
Crude
(Rs. per BBL)
Gold
(Rs. Per 10gms)
31/08/2015 66.30 102.31 74.49 54.75 3307 26556
01/09/2015 66.26 101.99 74.78 55.05 3590 26718
02/09/2015 66.16 101.21 74.60 55.09 3284 26585
03/09/2015 66.22 101.22 74.33 54.98 3341 26326
04/09/2015 66.40 101.19 73.89 55.57 3356 26325
-0.15%
Rupee
Depreciated
1.11%
Rupee
Appreciated
0.81%
Rupee
Appreciated
-1.48%
Rupee
Depreciated
1.48% -0.87%
Debt:
Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week)
1-Year 7.45 1
2-Year 7.72 0
5-Year 7.93 2
10-Year 7.80 1
Phani Sekhar Ponangi Jharna Agarwal
Nupur Gupta Aakash Mehta Ridhdhi Chheda
Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking
Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources
that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for
personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own
investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent
advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please
note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising
from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-
mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose
their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis
and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this
recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted
to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors
are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also
expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability
and incidence of tax on investments
Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian
regulations.
Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:
702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .
(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills,
Hyderabad 500 034)
SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O):
INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI
Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”

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The World This Week - 31st Aug to 5th Sept, 2015

  • 1. The World This Week August 31 – September 05, 2015
  • 2. Equity View: The US jobs data released last week was encouraging due to which investors are expecting a rate hike by Fed. Actually, one would associate good jobs data with strengthening of economy but, in the near term contest between short term gains expected by speculators and long term benefits expected by investors, the market always favors short term. So while robust jobs data is good for the US economy in the longer term, near term always trims over it. Thus, there might be some nervousness in the market but there is an expectation that markets would bottom out in this week. There are 6 – 7 trading sessions left before Fed rate hike decision so markets would see more action this week. As parliament is not in session global news will drive the market. The next one month would be results season and commentary from Infrastructure oriented companies because some amount of front loading in infra spending has been seen. The market outlook for very near term is dependent on Fed’s action on interest rate and we can see some more correction in Indian markets. The outlook for slightly medium term will be dependent on results season and commentary from Infra sector and for a longer term we are bullish on markets. There is actually panic across Indian equity markets because from the fundamental point of view there is not much of a concern but investors should always be ready to take downside risk of 10 – 12% in equity markets. This volatility is an intrinsic character of equity markets. For debt markets to provide risk adjusted returns there should be reduction of 100 – 150 bps in interest rates and if this reduction happens then even equity markets will perform better. One Rank One Pension (OROP) will lead to higher fiscal deficit but deficit financing of such a large amount is not a great idea because this expenditure will be recurring in nature. Although, certain sectors of economy like Automobiles, Consumer durables etc will benefit out of it. News: DOMESTIC MACRO:  India’s Gross Domestic Product grew 7% during the June quarter of FY15-16, slower than 7.5% seen in the previous quarter but slightly faster than 6.7% recorded a year ago.  According to the Finance Minister, the Government has decided not to levy Minimum Alternate Tax on capital gains made by Foreign Institutional Investors retrospectively.  According to the Minister of State for Labour and Employment, the Central Government has released Rs. 2,000 crore to Employees' Pension Scheme as its contribution for the year 2015-16.  The insurance regulator has decided to digitise its entire product approval process - for both life and general insurance products by the end of year. GLOBAL MACRO EURO  The European Central Bank (ECB) in its monetary policy review left its interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.05%.  The ECB also revised its growth forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.5% seen in June. The projection for next year was cut to 1.7% from 1.9%.
  • 3. United States  The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 bps during the week to close at 2.13% compared to the previous week’s close of 2.18%.  US non-farm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 173000 in August compared to a revised 245000 in July; unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in August. China  China's official Manufacturing PMI fell to its weakest level since 2012 as it edged down to 49.7 in August from 50 in July which further raised concerns over China’s economy. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 31/08/15 26,283 10,734 17,865 19,637 11,048 16,150 7,788 17,962 11,161 7,446 8,878 1,834 1,261 6,097 1/9/2015 25,696 10,524 17,392 18,924 10,776 15,708 7,653 17,698 11,047 7,205 8,691 1,796 1,221 6,015 2/9/2015 25,454 10,437 17,154 18,581 10,665 15,443 7,679 17,546 11,184 7,108 8,581 1,752 1,229 6,074 3/9/2015 25,765 10,560 17,383 18,940 10,727 15,749 7,707 17,561 11,233 7,281 8,662 1,784 1,285 6,105 4/9/2015 25,202 10,360 16,983 18,438 10,640 15,433 7,611 17,136 10,970 7,117 8,540 1,730 1,242 5,990 -4.11% -3.49% -4.94% -6.11% -3.70% -4.44% -2.28% -4.60% -1.71% -4.42% -3.81% -5.69% -1.45% -1.75% Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 31/08/2015 66.30 102.31 74.49 54.75 3307 26556 01/09/2015 66.26 101.99 74.78 55.05 3590 26718 02/09/2015 66.16 101.21 74.60 55.09 3284 26585 03/09/2015 66.22 101.22 74.33 54.98 3341 26326 04/09/2015 66.40 101.19 73.89 55.57 3356 26325 -0.15% Rupee Depreciated 1.11% Rupee Appreciated 0.81% Rupee Appreciated -1.48% Rupee Depreciated 1.48% -0.87% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 7.45 1 2-Year 7.72 0 5-Year 7.93 2 10-Year 7.80 1
  • 4. Phani Sekhar Ponangi Jharna Agarwal Nupur Gupta Aakash Mehta Ridhdhi Chheda Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above- mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”