News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
India’s Gross Domestic Product grew 7% during the June quarter of FY15-16, slower than 7.5% seen in the previous quarter but slightly faster than 6.7% recorded a year ago.
According to the Finance Minister, the Government has decided not to levy Minimum Alternate Tax on capital gains made by Foreign Institutional Investors retrospectively.
According to the Minister of State for Labour and Employment, the Central Government has released Rs. 2,000 crore to Employees' Pension Scheme as its contribution for the year 2015-16.
The insurance regulator has decided to digitise its entire product approval process - for both life and general insurance products by the end of year.
GLOBAL MACRO
EURO
The European Central Bank (ECB) in its monetary policy review left its interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.05%.
The ECB also revised its growth forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.5% seen in June. The projection for next year was cut to 1.7% from 1.9%.
United States
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 bps during the week to close at 2.13% compared to the previous week’s close of 2.18%.
US non-farm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 173000 in August compared to a revised 245000 in July; unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in August.
China
China's official Manufacturing PMI fell to its weakest level since 2012 as it edged down to 49.7 in August from 50 in July which further raised concerns over China’s economy.
2. Equity View:
The US jobs data released last week was encouraging due to which investors are expecting a rate hike by Fed.
Actually, one would associate good jobs data with strengthening of economy but, in the near term contest
between short term gains expected by speculators and long term benefits expected by investors, the market
always favors short term. So while robust jobs data is good for the US economy in the longer term, near term
always trims over it. Thus, there might be some nervousness in the market but there is an expectation that
markets would bottom out in this week.
There are 6 – 7 trading sessions left before Fed rate hike decision so markets would see more action this week.
As parliament is not in session global news will drive the market. The next one month would be results season
and commentary from Infrastructure oriented companies because some amount of front loading in infra
spending has been seen. The market outlook for very near term is dependent on Fed’s action on interest rate
and we can see some more correction in Indian markets. The outlook for slightly medium term will be
dependent on results season and commentary from Infra sector and for a longer term we are bullish on
markets. There is actually panic across Indian equity markets because from the fundamental point of view
there is not much of a concern but investors should always be ready to take downside risk of 10 – 12% in
equity markets. This volatility is an intrinsic character of equity markets.
For debt markets to provide risk adjusted returns there should be reduction of 100 – 150 bps in interest rates
and if this reduction happens then even equity markets will perform better. One Rank One Pension (OROP)
will lead to higher fiscal deficit but deficit financing of such a large amount is not a great idea because this
expenditure will be recurring in nature. Although, certain sectors of economy like Automobiles, Consumer
durables etc will benefit out of it.
News:
DOMESTIC MACRO:
India’s Gross Domestic Product grew 7% during the June quarter of FY15-16, slower than 7.5% seen
in the previous quarter but slightly faster than 6.7% recorded a year ago.
According to the Finance Minister, the Government has decided not to levy Minimum Alternate Tax
on capital gains made by Foreign Institutional Investors retrospectively.
According to the Minister of State for Labour and Employment, the Central Government has released Rs.
2,000 crore to Employees' Pension Scheme as its contribution for the year 2015-16.
The insurance regulator has decided to digitise its entire product approval process - for both life and
general insurance products by the end of year.
GLOBAL MACRO
EURO
The European Central Bank (ECB) in its monetary policy review left its interest rates unchanged at
a record low of 0.05%.
The ECB also revised its growth forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.5% seen in June. The
projection for next year was cut to 1.7% from 1.9%.
3. United States
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 2 bps during the week to close at 2.13% compared
to the previous week’s close of 2.18%.
US non-farm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 173000 in August compared to a revised 245000 in July;
unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in August.
China
China's official Manufacturing PMI fell to its weakest level since 2012 as it edged down to 49.7 in
August from 50 in July which further raised concerns over China’s economy.
Indices:
Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck
31/08/15 26,283 10,734 17,865 19,637 11,048 16,150 7,788 17,962 11,161 7,446 8,878 1,834 1,261 6,097
1/9/2015 25,696 10,524 17,392 18,924 10,776 15,708 7,653 17,698 11,047 7,205 8,691 1,796 1,221 6,015
2/9/2015 25,454 10,437 17,154 18,581 10,665 15,443 7,679 17,546 11,184 7,108 8,581 1,752 1,229 6,074
3/9/2015 25,765 10,560 17,383 18,940 10,727 15,749 7,707 17,561 11,233 7,281 8,662 1,784 1,285 6,105
4/9/2015 25,202 10,360 16,983 18,438 10,640 15,433 7,611 17,136 10,970 7,117 8,540 1,730 1,242 5,990
-4.11% -3.49% -4.94% -6.11% -3.70% -4.44% -2.28% -4.60% -1.71% -4.42% -3.81% -5.69% -1.45% -1.75%
Commodities and Currency:
Date USD GBP EURO YEN
Crude
(Rs. per BBL)
Gold
(Rs. Per 10gms)
31/08/2015 66.30 102.31 74.49 54.75 3307 26556
01/09/2015 66.26 101.99 74.78 55.05 3590 26718
02/09/2015 66.16 101.21 74.60 55.09 3284 26585
03/09/2015 66.22 101.22 74.33 54.98 3341 26326
04/09/2015 66.40 101.19 73.89 55.57 3356 26325
-0.15%
Rupee
Depreciated
1.11%
Rupee
Appreciated
0.81%
Rupee
Appreciated
-1.48%
Rupee
Depreciated
1.48% -0.87%
Debt:
Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week)
1-Year 7.45 1
2-Year 7.72 0
5-Year 7.93 2
10-Year 7.80 1
4. Phani Sekhar Ponangi Jharna Agarwal
Nupur Gupta Aakash Mehta Ridhdhi Chheda
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