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NBA: Intro to Advanced NBA Strategy

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Saahil Sud, formerly Maxdalury, provides an advanced introduction to NBA DFS strategy.

Published in: Sports
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NBA: Intro to Advanced NBA Strategy

  1. 1. Course 5: NBA Strategy Intro to Advanced NBA Strategy www.rotoql.com 1
  2. 2. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Lesson Overview 2 I. NBA advanced stats II. The importance of minutes III. Vegas elements to consider IV. To stack or not to stack?
  3. 3. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com DraftKings vs. FanDuel 3 Stat DK Points FD Points 2-point FG +2.0 PT +2.0 PT 3-point FG +3.5 PT +3.0 PT Free throw +1.0 PT +1.0 PT Rebound +1.25 PT +1.2 PT Assist +1.5 PT +1.5 PT Steal +2.0 PT +2.0 PT Block +2.0 PT +2.0 PT Turnover -0.5 PT -1.0 PT Double-double +1.5 PT N/A Triple-double +3.0 PT N/A Late Player Swap Yes No ● DraftKings gives additional points for milestones - Double-Doubles and Triple-Doubles ● PG and PF tend to benefit from these milestones and should be targeted more on DK ● FanDuel penalizes more for turnovers ● No penalty for missed shots. Volume is more valuable than efficient shooting ● Player swap is allowed on DraftKings, FanDuel does not allow you to edit lineups after games begin
  4. 4. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com DFS Advanced Stats 4 Stat Notes Fantasy Points per Minute Serves as basis for projected fantasy points PER Player Efficiency Rating - takes in missed shots, TOs, fouls Usage Rate (USG%) Amount of possessions a player uses during the game Team Pace How fast a team plays overall, dictates game opportunities Player Pace Individual players play faster than others Offensive Efficiency (OEFF) Offensive rating - points scored per 100 possessions Defensive Efficiency (DEFF) Defensive rating - points given up per 100 possessions Rebound Percentage Player’s ability to grab rebounds
  5. 5. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Using Vegas 5 * Data from RotoGrinders - 2013-2014 NBA Season Stat Game Flow Spread Over/Under Blowout Factor
  6. 6. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Minutes vs Fantasy Point 6 Source: Daily Fantasy Cafe FPTs per game and Minutes per game display a strong correlation
  7. 7. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com FP/Min vs FP/Game 7 Source: Daily Fantasy Cafe FPTs per Min and FPTs per game display a strong correlation
  8. 8. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com PER vs. FPTs per Min (Season) 8 Source: KahlanRahl on Reddit PER and fantasy points per minute display a strong correlation
  9. 9. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com Usage Rate and Fantasy Points per Night 9 Source: KahlanRahl on Reddit Usage rate and FPTs per night display a moderate correlation
  10. 10. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com To Stack or Not to Stack? 10 ● Not a preferred strategy, players tend to not be correlated ● Play at your own risk Consider: ● Point Guards and Centers ● Close Games and Overtime ● Depleted Rosters ● Game Stack
  11. 11. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com DraftKings - How to Use the Utility Spot 11* Data Provided from numberFire Point Guards, Power Forwards, and Centers are most prevalent
  12. 12. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com NBA Cash Game Strategy 12* Data Provided from DraftKings Average scores needed to cash in a 50/50 NBA contest on DraftKings
  13. 13. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com NBA Tournament and GPP Strategy 13* Data Provided from DraftKings Average scores needed to cash in a large field tournament NBA contest on DraftKings
  14. 14. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com NBA Lineup Example 14* Data Provided from DraftKings
  15. 15. www.rotoql.com www.rotoql.com More Resources Visit our Support Center to watch video tutorials on how to use RotoQL • rotoql.zendesk.com Monitor daily fantasy news, strategy and advice articles at the QL Wire • rotoql.com/qlwire If you are new to DFS or just need a refresher on the fundamentals, visit RotoU • rotoql.com/university 15

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