1. Josh Nathan, MA Stacy Barnes
Communication Professor & Intern,
Media Strategist Office of
Emergency
Management
Denver, CO Compton, CA
Costly Forecasting from TV Meteorologists?
A Case of Strong Reliance and Weak Alliance in Denver
Presented at the National Weather Association
Annual Conference
Louisville, Kentucky
October, 2008
Broadcaster’s Seal of Approval
Author: Can TV News Change History?

2. Abstract
In 2006, those in the Denver metro area experienced the seventh strongest
winter storm in the city’s history (National Weather Service, 2006).
Applying Maurice Halbwachs’ theory of collective memory, this study
suggests the two storms that paralyzed Colorado’s Front Range during the
week surrounding Christmas created a strong collective memory that
briefly led to an overreliance on broadcasters’ forecasts. In April of the
following year, another significant snowstorm was predicted. When it
ceased to materialize, emergency personnel in the city and at the airport
had already prepared. Yet, the decisions were based, in part, on the
memories, miscalculations, and mistakes made during the 2006 storms
and too much stock was placed in the hands of weather forecasts.
Whether anyone could have avoided the pitfalls made, or will do so in the
future, depends on both the degree to which they rely on, as well as how
they interpret, the forecasts provided. Better choices also hinge on whether
collaboration increases among forecasters and local response agencies—
a synergy that, as of yet, remains largely untapped.

3. Perfect Storms: Fast Facts
Denver Post
Photo/Cyrus McCrimmon
“Bad weather is to the TV News business what
Christmas is to the elves who live at the North Pole.”
Dan Williamson (2007), Columbus’s News & Entertainment Weekly
December 2006 Denver Blizzards
• December 20-21 & December 28-29, 2006
• 27.7” Snow Total in Denver
• Third Snowiest December in Denver History
• Nearly 5,000 passengers stranded at DIA
• About 3,000 flights cancelled before Christmas
• Hundreds of motorists stranded along I-70 and I-25
• Scores of communities isolated and without power
Cows had to be fed by helicopters.
Dozens of major highways closed including I-25 from Denver
south to New Mexico and north to Wyoming.
Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings in effect for days at
a time.
Governor Bill Owens declares a disaster emergency, activating the
Colorado National Guard.

4. Broadcast News Viewers
SOURCE: Drobot (2007)
The main information sources for obtaining weather forecast information leading up to and
during the December 20-21, 2006, winter storm. Respondents could only select one information
source.
· Nearly 65 percent turn to local TV Meteorologists as
main information source leading up to the storms:

5. Lower Middle:
9News’
Kathy Sabine
Below:
7News’
Mike Nelson
Whether Weather’s Valuable…
Denver TV Chief
Meteorologists
Top Left:
FOX 31’s Chris Dunn
Middle Left:
CBS4’s
Ed Greene
Lower Left:
CW2’s Dave Fraser
This aggregation takes the median value as
representative of household values for
current forecast services.
The annual value per household for current
weather forecasting services is estimated to be
$109.00
SOURCE: Stratus Consulting (2002)

6. • Response highlights important role of
local TV Meteorologists.
• On average, people are most interested
in when and where precipitation will
occur.
Why TV? An Issue of Trust
• In one survey, one in three people reported staying home
during the storms based solely on TV Meteorologists’
weather forecasts.
“I THINK THE MESSAGE HERE IS THAT
LOCAL TV IS THE PLACE TO GO DURING
SEVERE WEATHER. IT’S THE FRONT
LINES.”Sheldon Drobot,
Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research,
University of Colorado at Boulder
2008
– Daily decisions about whether to leave home
change based solely on predictions.
– Those in TV focus on the certainty rather
than the uncertainty in the forecast, which
often falsely boosts viewer confidence.
– People are largely unable to differentiate
where the forecast information originates
and typically assume it’s with TV
Meteorologists.
– Confidence in any forecast more than two
days out drops off significantly.

7. All too Strange a Scene
“The sidewalks were covered with six-foot piles of snow, so people were
going down the middle of busy streets. It’s very dangerous. One car slips and
that would be it.” (Terry Ross, Edgewater Police Officer)
“[With all of the cancelled flights,] this isn’t an act of God. It was
mismanagement by United [Airlines].”
(Robert Helmer, Denver Resident who sat in a plane stuck in snow for hours at DIA )
“A plow makes a pass when you’re getting snowfalls at that rate and an
hour later you can’t tell a plow’s been there. I know that there is great
frustration with people who feel stranded in their homes because the
neighborhood streets have a lot of snow on them.” (Bill Vidal, Denver Public Works)

9. The Cost of a Memory
• In the 1920s, French social psychologist
Maurice Halbwachs was the first to study
what he later dubbed “Collective
Memory.”
– He argued individual memories could
only exist if a person could contextualize
them; to do so, one needed to tap into
the broader societal memory and, ever
since, the two became inextricably-
bound, varying by culture.
Saul Friedländer (1979)
• Most agree television serves as a communal
portal through which nearly identical memories
are made for the majority.
“When crises occur, one searches the depths
of one’s memory to discover some vestige of
the past, not the past of the individual,
faltering and ephemeral, but rather that of the
community, which, though left behind,
nonetheless represents that which is
permanent and lasting.”
– After emerging from two December
blizzards, the collective memory from the
storms was strong enough and similar
enough for most in Denver to take an
abnormal amount of additional
precautions in a predicted, but never
materialized, blizzard in April, 2007.
“[An institutionalized cultural
memory] draws on itself to explain,
distinguish, reinterpret, criticize,
censure, control, surpass, and
receive. … Upon such collective
knowledge, for the most part of the
past, each group bases its awareness
of unity and particularity.”
Jan Assmann (1992)

10. April (Snow) Showers Bring May Flowers?
The NWS predicts a large snow
storm starting April 12, 2007,
calling for 6”-12” in the Denver
Metro Area.
With Strong Reliance comes Misdirected Anger:
– TV Meteorologists tend to favor
forecasting for 10”-12”.
– Only a trace of snow falls at DIA, with
similar amounts in the metro area.
• Given an even stronger reliance on TV meteorologists
than typical due to the December blizzards, people
now change plans for a storm that never occurs.
• In one of many preemptive moves by companies &
agencies, airlines cancel about 100 flights in and out
of DIA.
• Malcontent grows with changes in personal decisions,
operations at DIA, and communication regarding
incorrect forecast.
“Weather forecasts are inherently
uncertain. … Weather forecasts
communicated to the public today
contain, at best, limited
information about uncertainty.”
Rebecca Morss, Julie Demuth, & Jeffrey Lazo
2008
Perhaps if the showers that are predicted arrive!
“If you tell people what to
expect, they’re mad at you for
telling them and if you don’t
tell them what to expect,
they’re mad at you for not
telling them. We can’t win in
this business.”
KUSA 9News Chief Meteorologist Kathy
Sabine to Denver Westword
2007

11. Strong Reliance on TV Weather Necessitates Change
• Nearly 60 percent of those in a nationwide survey
would prefer TV Meteorologists to discuss
probabilities of precipitation, including, to some extent,
what mesoscale conditions may change the
immediate forecast.
• More communication is needed among disparate
agencies so waste of financial resources is minimized
in preparing for storms that don’t come; this includes
the use of better forecasting technology.
“As of February 2008, the WAS*IS
mission has empowered 145
practitioners, researchers, and
stakeholders around the world to
build new relationships and to use
new tools and concepts for more
effective socio-economic applications
and evaluations of weather
information and products.”
– Since 2007, some NWS offices have employed a
successful “chat” service to better communicate with
broadcasters; it seems to be successful with
theoretical meteorological discussions that may create
a change in the NWS forecasts or result in a
justification in the summary disseminated.
– The NWS for the Denver area did not, and does not,
engage in chat sessions; its Operational Meteorologist
cites problems with “band width, security,
standardization, and staff resources,” affecting any
potential implementation across the country.
weather & society * integrated
studies
WAS*IS
2008

12. People Love to Hate
“People are learning by experience. People may have a
plan in place, or no plan, and some major event
comes along and they change it and then another
event comes along and they change it. … How the
storm evolves and how people make decisions is not
simplified.”
Julie Demuth, Personal Communication
Associate Scientist
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Institute for the Study of Society and Environment (ISSE)
Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)
Emotion plays a large role when it comes to uncertainty in a forecast
– Studies show most thought TV
Meteorologists underestimated the amount of
snow in the December blizzards, which was
not correct & merely a perception.
– Still, necessary for NOAA, NASA, NSF, &
DOD to strengthen efforts for better
observation and modeling systems.
A sidewalk in Denver
December, 2006
• The collective memory of the December
blizzards only adds to the anger some felt
about wasted resources in preparation for
the April storm that never came.

13. – Storm was forecasted during normal work hours
– No excess cost accrued by putting snow removal crews on standby
An All Out Emergency: Preparing for a Non-Event
A United Airlines jet is deiced at
DIA December 29, 2006.
AP Photo/Will Powers
Only a trace of snow at DIA was actually recorded for this storm
• City of Denver puts its Public Works department on standby.
• DIA declares snow emergency based on NWS report and begins the
following preparations:
• Many airlines cancelled flights in anticipation of the storm:
April 12-13, 2007: NWS calling for 6”-12” snow / Most in Denver TV News calling for 10”-12”
– Briefing to airlines about emergency
– Staffed two trucks on Peña Boulevard
– Maintenance crews scheduled for airfield:
22 broom trucks, 12 pushers, 2, blowers,
4 sanders, 4 chemical trucks
– United Airlines: 40 flights
– Frontier Airlines: 1 flight
– Other Airlines: 24 flights

14. What Experience and the 2006 Blizzards taught
Denver Agencies
• City & County of Denver changed its Standard Operating Procedures
(SOP) to address residential streets in a more timely fashion.
• DIA made three changes for the 2007-2008 snow season:.
– Residents complained about not having neighborhood streets cleaned during the 2006
storms.
– Denver Public Works created the Residential Snow Plow Program.
– Increased the number of snow removal equipment to 100 plows.
– Pickup trucks reserved for residential areas; snowplows address main thoroughfares,
highways, other critical areas.
– Added a third level of snow alert.
– Contracted out ramp snow removal
& snow melter operations.
City of Denver Snowplow
AP Photo/Andrew Otto

15. • Traditionally, information is received by the particular
city’s Office of Emergency Management (OEM) from
the
NWS.
• OEM then disseminates the information
internally among various city agencies to
ensure everyone has a full understanding
of the prediction.
• Then agencies work together to determine
if further action must be taken, such as a
local snow emergency that activates an
Emergency Operations Plan (EOP).
• If further action is taken, the OEM will
work with the city Public Information
Officers (PIOs) to disseminate the information
to local news outlets and general public via press
releases.
• The emergency hierarchy varies from city to city and
state to state, based on local laws and Standard
Information Distribution Hierarchy
How forecast information is disseminated and translated into action
Public
Works
NWS
Mayor’s
Office Public
Information
Officers
News Media
General Public
City OEM
Fire and Police
Private
Forecasting
Firm

16. – This gives the OEM a more complete weather forecast.
– Allows the OEM and first responders to make better decisions regarding response.
– Various cities in Colorado have followed suit.
– New forecast information is not shared, or discussed, with NWS.
Weak Alliance: The Need to Strengthen Some Bonds
NWS provides information to Emergency Managers, but there is still no mechanism
used for a discussion from Emergency Managers to the NWS.
• City of Denver employs a private meteorological firm that is an expert on
Denver weather patterns to give independent forecasts in addition to the
NWS reports.

17. New Prospects in Denver?
• Multi-agency effort to develop an Emergency Manager
Communications Network.
– Scheduled to start this winter.
– Involves conference calls from NWS to
emergency management community.
– Uses Emergency Managers Weather
Information Network (EMWIN).
Will provide information on the impact of a severe
weather event, including the level of uncertainty and
variability due to Colorado’s terrain.

18. – TV is still seen as both the best, and most turned to, medium to
convey information to the public.
– Allows for clearer flow of information to public.
• During severe weather, general public relies solely on local broadcast
meteorologists to receive information and warnings.
• Information flows from NWS to OEM, but OEM feedback is
still virtually non-existent, which must change.
Conclusion
“…False alarms will reduce public
confidence in the warning process.”
David Alexander, 2002
• Employ better technology for more accurate predictions,
enabling NWS, OEM, DIA personnel, and TV
Meteorologists to better prepare and inform public,
particularly because there is a high level of trust and
recognition placed on the broadcasters.
• Expanding dialogue between NWS, OEM, and TV
Meteorologists using proposed EMWIN platform could
provide for more efficient, less costly responses in severe
weather situations and a synergy that is currently MIA.

19. The Aftermath: Aerial photo of DIA on the
morning of December 22, 2006
Photo/Ashley Niblock

20. Josh Nathan
Josh Nathan teaches in the Communication Arts & Sciences department at the
Metropolitan State University of Denver. He also teaches at The Art Institute of
Colorado and is an NWA-certified freelance broadcast meteorologist.
Nathan recently published his first book Can TV News Change
History? which was released in the U.S., Germany, and the U.K.
Emerging from a collective memory perspective, his main focus has
been the affect of mass media on populations. He wrote a
foundational citation in Communication on the topic and presented a
Poster Session at the 2006 NWA Annual Meeting regarding how
broadcast news shapes memories of severe weather, focusing on
Hurricane Katrina. In addition, he has published several scholarly
papers with research in Organizational Change & Development as
well as Emergency Disaster Management & Preparedness. Nathan’s
practical background includes 10 years as an on-air Meteorologist and
Reporter for television news affiliates with a strong emphasis in
educating the public about disasters and how to better prepare for
them. Nathan earned an M.A. in Communication from Hawai'i Pacific
University, a Certificate of Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi
State University, and graduated Magna cum Laude in Journalism from
Northwestern University. He earned his National Weather Association
Broadcaster’s Seal of Approval in 2001 and was recertified through
continuing education units in 2004 and 2007.
Information on the Researchers

21. Information on the Researchers
Stacy L. Barnes
Stacy Barnes works in the Office of Emergency Management for the City of Compton in
California.
Barnes’s practical background includes three years of working
in the emergency management field in southern California and
one year in the field of communications, working in Hawai’i
Governor Linda Lingle’s Communications Department. Barnes
earned an M.A. in Communication from Hawai'i Pacific
University, an M.S. in Emergency Management Administration
from California State University Long Beach, and graduated
with a B.A. in English, and a Secondary Education Certificate,
from Washington College in Chestertown, MD.

22. References
Aguilera, D., & Zeppelin, J. (2008, June 26). Denver’s big blizzards. In M. Alger (Chair),
Welcome to Denver! Symposium conducted at the American Meteorological Society 36th Conference on
Broadcast Meteorology, Denver, Colorado.
Alexander, D. (2002). Principles of emergency planning and management. New York:
Oxford University Press.
Assmann, J. (1992). Cultural memory: Writing, remembering and political identity in early civilizations.
Munich: Beck.
Brown, J. (2006, December 21). More than 2 feet expected for area before storm exits. Denver Post.
Retrieved January 8, 2007, from http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_4872351
Changing from what WAS to what IS the future of integrated weather studies. (2008, February). Weather and
Society * Integrated Studies Mission. Retrieved September 21, 2008, from http://www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
Drobot, S. (2007, July). Evaluation of winter storm warnings: A case study of the Colorado Front Range
December 20-21, 2006, winter storm. Quick Response Report, (192), 1-8.
Dutton, J.A. (2002, September). Opportunities and priorities in a new era for weather and climate services.
American Meteorological Society, 1303-1311.
Friedländer, S. (1979). When memory comes. New York: Farrar, Strauss, Giroux.
Gonzales, M., & McPhee, M. (2007, April 13). Snow makes a quick return. Denver Post, p. B-01.

23. References
Halbwachs, M. (1980). On Collective Memory. (F. J. Ditter, Jr. & V. Y. Ditter, Trans.). New York:
Harper & Row. (Original work published 1950)
Halbwachs, M. (1992). On Collective Memory. (L.W. Coser, Ed. & Trans.).New York: Harper Colophon.
(Original work published 1950)
Kohler, J. (2006, December 22). Frustration continues at DIA. Denver Post. Retrieved September 19, 2008
from http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_4886944
Lazo, J.K., & Chestnut, Lauraine G. (2002, November 22). Economic value of current and improved weather
forecasts in the U.S. household section (Executive Summary No. 10050). Boulder, CO: Stratus Consulting.
Morss, R.E., Demuth, J.L, & Lazo, J.K. (2008, February 28). Communicating uncertainty in weather
forecasts: A survey of the U.S. public. Weather and Forecasting.
National Climatic Data Center. (2006). Preliminary local climatological data for WFO Denver/Boulder.
Boulder, CO: Author. Retrieved May 5, 2008, from http://www.crh.noaa.gov.bou/include/showClimate.php
Roberts, M. (2007, February 15). The messengers. Denver Westword. Retrieved February 16, 2007, from
http://westerword.com/2007-02-15/news/the-messengers/full
Schwartz, B. (1996, Fall). Introduction: The expanding past. Qualitative Sociology, 19(3), 275-282.
Williamson, D. (2007, February 15). Snow show. The Other Paper. Retrieved February 16, 2007, from
http://theother paper.com/TOP2-15/2-15_coverstory.html

24. References
The researchers would like to extend a special thanks to the following
individuals for providing their time and expertise:
Julie Demuth
Associate Scientist
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Institute for the Study of Society and Environment (ISSE)
Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)
Boulder, Colorado
Sheldon Drobot, Ph.D.
Research Associate
Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research
University of Colorado at Boulder
Lisa Gahm
Operations Manager
Denver International Airport
Robert Glancy
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service
Boulder, Colorado
Daniel Nietfeld
Science and Operations Officer (SOO)
National Weather Service
Omaha, Nebraska
Dan Roberts
Deputy Manager of Operations
Denver Public Works Department
Kathy Sherman-Morris
Assistant Professor
Department of Geosciences
Mississippi State University
Steven Steed
Director
Office of Emergency Management
Denver, Colorado