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Predictability
vs
Unpredictability
Sharon Richardson
www.joiningdots.com
@joiningdots
ReadMe.1st
This was a talk delivered for ‘300 seconds’ hosted by the
Guardian newspaper in London, November 2013.
The clue...
Predictable
Unpredictable
Why embracing the
unpredictable can lead to more
resilient systems
Predictable is great when you
know where you are going and
what to expect…
…not so much when you don’t.
When facing uncertainty, small regular adjustments
based on feedback outperform long-term pla...
When there is stability and scale, there
is usually a hierarchy…
Networks adapt better to
uncertainty but can fall into ch...
The Internet has changed
the game
…it is considered a
‘scale free’ network
Uncertainty is the new
normal
Lose control of a car and the
crash is inevitable
But with a horse, anything is
possible (the rider doesn’t fall)
(video r...
Sharon Richardson
www.joiningdots.com
@joiningdots
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Predictability vs Unpredictability

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Why unpredictable systems are more resilient than predictable ones - they adapt in response to feedback. Talk delivered at The Guardian & Independent newspapers headquarters in London, November 2013

Published in: Leadership & Management
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Predictability vs Unpredictability

  1. 1. Predictability vs Unpredictability Sharon Richardson www.joiningdots.com @joiningdots
  2. 2. ReadMe.1st This was a talk delivered for ‘300 seconds’ hosted by the Guardian newspaper in London, November 2013. The clue is in the title: each talk lasted no more than 5 minutes. My session was about unpredictable systems trump predictable ones… This was a completely visual presentation and the slides don’t really work on the own. A few post-its have been added to add a little context Enjoy! 
  3. 3. Predictable Unpredictable Why embracing the unpredictable can lead to more resilient systems
  4. 4. Predictable is great when you know where you are going and what to expect…
  5. 5. …not so much when you don’t. When facing uncertainty, small regular adjustments based on feedback outperform long-term plans based on assumptions
  6. 6. When there is stability and scale, there is usually a hierarchy… Networks adapt better to uncertainty but can fall into chaos (…but the benefits are rarely evenly distributed…)
  7. 7. The Internet has changed the game …it is considered a ‘scale free’ network Uncertainty is the new normal
  8. 8. Lose control of a car and the crash is inevitable But with a horse, anything is possible (the rider doesn’t fall) (video removed)
  9. 9. Sharon Richardson www.joiningdots.com @joiningdots

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