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Data isn’t everything - Should marketers trust their gut more?
- 2. Data isn’t everything… Should marketers trust their gut more? @johnlukejackson
- 4. I don’t hate data @johnlukejackson
- 5. I hate how its used @johnlukejackson
- 6. I hate the need to be able to post rationalise everything @johnlukejackson
- 7. Post rationalised “Data” can cause mistakes @johnlukejackson
- 8. Training - Intro to Performance Marketing
- 9. Over-reliance on data highlights its flaws @johnlukejackson
- 10. Data is only as good as its sources and its interpreters @johnlukejackson
- 11. Data is only as good as its sources and its interpreters @johnlukejackson We spend a lot of time optimising this But next to no time on this.
- 12. Your brain = The best all round interpreter available @johnlukejackson
- 14. “Superior pattern processing is the essence of the evolved human brain” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4141622/
- 15. That processing is also key to creativity @johnlukejackson
- 16. Creativity is the key driver for advertising
- 17. “It was nine seventeen in the morning, and the house was heavy.” 1 The Road – AI Written Novel
- 19. We are impacted by a lot @johnlukejackson Biases Anchoring Past Experience Concentration Risk analysis Multitasking Biology Confirmation Bias Hindsight Bias Halo Effect
- 22. We need to balance these weaknesses out using data and post rationalisation @johnlukejackson
- 23. We need a better balance @johnlukejackson
- 24. Data + Experience => Insight => Creativity @johnlukejackson Multiple, refined data points Been there before. What have you seen? What patterns can you notice. Is it relevant? Does it matter? Does it fit with the wider world? How can we make people care?
- 25. So then smart arse, how do we do this…
- 26. You sell: Audience also likes: Search volume is good:
- 27. = LETS DO A WHISKEY GUIDE ON OUR BLOG
- 29. Just because the data supports it doesn’t mean it’s a good idea… Build something that’s useful and relevant
- 30. Or, use another medium
- 31. Or, use another medium
- 32. Short tail Keyword 1000 searches pm Ranking 2nd 180 visits Long tail Keyword <10 searches pm Ranking 2nd 1/2 visits VS
- 33. Search volume doesn’t always matter. Specificity does. Understand what's best for your client
- 34. Use your gut, but think of it as another data point Gary Klein
- 35. Know when to trust your intuition 1. Some regularity 2. A lot of practice 3. Feedback Paraphrased from Daniel Kahneman
- 36. If you know it will work, just do it. Time costs money
- 37. Pre-Mortem – What could go wrong? Vivid In a premortem, team members assume that the project they are planning has just failed—as so many do—and then generate plausible reasons for its demise. Those with reservations may speak freely at the outset, so that the project can be improved rather than autopsied https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem
- 38. All good advertising has some risk.
- 41. Vivid Improve your creativity by: • Looking at art. • Imagining how an accountant would approach a problem. • Incorporate “cheese” and “pie” into your next meeting. • Asking what toothpaste is for? Richard Wiseman – 59 Seconds
- 46. Know when to be unpredictable https://riseatseven.com/blog/creative-ppc-stunts-that-drive-brand-and-traffic/
- 47. In Summary • Data is only as good as its sources and its interpreters • Trust your gut, but be aware of your fallibilities • Use data, but remember to take risks where you can • Data can only get you so far, Creativity is key
- 48. Data + Experience => Insight => Creativity @johnlukejackson
- 49. Training - Intro to Performance Marketing
Editor's Notes
- People Use Statistics as a Drunk Uses a Lamppost — For Support Rather Than Illumination Andrew Lang
- Robby Mook was the key Strategist for the Clinton campaign against trump. They hired 60 mathematicians and statisticians—several from the Obama campaign—to create a software program Ada that used statistical modelling to plan their campaign. With Ada and this modelling, they lobbed 70% of the campaign budget at television ads, specifically around what it thought were potential swing states. The model took blue-collar voters for granted, figuring that they reliably voted Democratic, most recently for Obama, and they would do so again. With blue-collar votes as her unshakeable base, Clinton would coast to victory by persuading minorities and liberal elites to vote for her. Look, Ada is just a computer program and, like all computer programs, has no common sense or wisdom. But you would expect the Human leading the campaign to have wisdom. Yet time and time again they ignored the issues. The first hint of trouble should have been around the challenge of Bernie Sanders. This was a 74 year old socialist senator from Vermont. He wasn’t even a democrat till he challenged Clinton. Yet he ran her close by emotionally appealing to blue collar voters. Then, when up against Trump, Bill Clinton pointed out that the campaign should try to emotionally connect with Blue collar workers in the Midwest. Places like Wisconsin and Arizona. Whatever you think about Clinton, if you look at his record his is an instinctive political genius, yet, Robby Mook actually took to mocking him stating that “my data disagrees with you anecdotes” Needless to say, Hilary lost the campaign due to losing those “safe” blue collar states like Wisconsin and Arizona to the emotive, batshit mental statements from Trump…
- The remain campaign relied on logically, data backed arguments, whilst Leave relied on emotion. The EU, fundamentally, is a political project. Its fundementally emotional but the remain campaign couldn’t grasp that as they stuck ridgedly to the economic, logical, data based arguments.
- It relies on models Its based on the past Random events, things that don’t fit the model, will break it Its predictable and predictable things are easy to hack
- Its ability to apply the “illogical” is what makes it stand out. Your brain is key to creativity
- Experience helps us analyse data effectively and spot patterns
- an algorithm can only do what it's programmed to do, so it can't possibly do anything novel Its not “once upon a time” or “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” or 'The story so far: in the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move' The Restaurant at the End of the Universe by Douglas Adams (1980)
- Multitasking – The invisible Gorilla – Daniel Simons – People were so focused on passing a ball between themselves they couldn’t actually see when a gorilla walked past them
- Think Suntory and Lost in translation – As an arty media studies wanker I both liked the film and liked to think of myself as a whisky connosiere
- Daniel Kahneman, G Klein, This is especially important for big strategic decisions
- Bernbachs masterpiece. All 1950s American cars were massive gas guzzling beasts. VW turn up with a tiny car made by Nazis. They went against convention and pushed a product the market didn’t even know it wanted.
- Snickers will not drive any direct value from this, but they will build awareness, that ties into the broader marketing campaign. This lights something in the back of your head that recognises the tag line and you respond
- Marketing is the closest most of us will ever come to producing real magic