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118 October 2013 |
WHY DIAMONDS?
AN INDUSTRY VIEW FOR INVESTORS
OCTOBER 2013
218 October 2013 |
AGENDA
•  Unprecedented changes in the diamond industry
•  Investors’ perception of diamonds
•  Past diamond demand
•  Key drivers of diamond demand
•  Long-term diamond demand vs. short-term demand forecast
•  Supply forecast
•  New supply from potential new projects and expansions
•  Supply-demand balance
•  Diamond substitution
•  Diamond price development
•  Profit pool in the pipeline
•  Diamond equity performance
•  Equity performance of individual diamond producers
•  Diamond cost curve
•  Investing in diamond equities and investment grade diamonds
Four +100 carat rough diamonds recovered by Rockwell:
Middle Orange, August/September 2013
318 October 2013 |
UNPRECEDENTED CHANGE IN DIAMOND INDUSTRY
•  De Beers: Relocating to Botswana
•  Oligopoly in place: De Beers + Alrosa dominate 70% of global supply
•  Alrosa gaining market share: #1 by 2018? and recent announcement of IPO
•  Two major attempts to exit: BHP disposals and attempts by Rio Tinto
•  New independent producers: Coming on-stream
•  Diamond trade modernizing: Moving towards a free market
Changes in industry structure
•  Banks de-risking: Tightening credit lines to cutting centres
•  Devaluing rupee: Causing manufacturing problems in India
•  Lack of rough diamond price transparency: An issue for investors
Changes in financing
•  Fancy colours and large stones: Continued strong demand
•  Lack of diamond advertising
•  Emerging threat: Lab-grown diamonds
Other developments
Helena Christensen showing the diamond in 2003
© Getty Images Entertainment
Not only has The Pink Star received the highest colour1
and
clarity grades from the GIA for pink diamonds, it has also
been found to be part of the rare subgroup comprising less
than 2 % of all gem diamonds known as Type IIa: stones in
this group are chemically the purest of all diamond crystals
and often have extraordinary optical transparency. In
addition, this extraordinarily important gem is more than
twice the size of the magnificent !Graff PinkF G the 24.78 carat
fancy intense pink diamond which established a world
auction record for a diamond and any gemstone or jewel at
$46.2 million at SothebyFs Geneva in 2010. The current
record price per carat for a pink diamond ($2,155,332) was
set by a 5 carat fancy vivid pink diamond2
.
SThe occurrence of pink diamonds in nature is extremely rare
in any sizeT, said Tom Moses, senior vice president of the
Gemological Institute of America. SItFs our experience that
large polished pink diamonds G over ten carats G very rarely
occur with an intense colour (V) The GIA Laboratory has been
issuing grading reports for fifty years and this is the largest
pink diamond with this depth of colour [vivid pink] that we
have ever characterisedT*
.
The 132.5 carat rough diamond was mined by De Beers in
Africa in 1999 and painstakingly cut and polished by Steinmetz Diamonds over a period of two years and
transformed into this stunning gemstone. Unveiled to the press and public as the _Steinmetz PinkF in Monaco
in 2003, the stone was first sold in 2007 and subsequently renamed _The Pink StarF.
In 2003, the diamond was shown at the Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, in the Splendor of
Diamonds exhibition, along with seven of the worldFs rarest diamonds including the De Beers Millennium
Star, the Allnatt diamond, and the Moussaieff Red. In 2005 2006, it was the star attraction of the Diamonds
exhibition at the Natural History Museum, London. The stone also features in all authoritative books on the
subject.
Ever since they were first discovered in the mines of India centuries ago, pink diamonds have been coveted
by rulers and prized by connoisseurs. They are probably the most desirable of all the coloured diamonds.
Many of the great gems of history happen to be pink diamonds, including the !Williamson', the !Hortense',
the !Darya i Nur' and the !Agra'.
The sale of The Pink Star continues SothebyFs tradition of bringing some of the rarest and most extraordinary
objects to market. SothebyFs Geneva has sold a number of the most valuable diamonds in the world and
holds the current world auction record for a diamond and any gemstone or jewel since the sale of the _Graff
PinkF an exceptionally rare and truly magnificent Fancy Intense Pink diamond of the purest, vibrant hue,
weighing 24.78 carats for CHF 45.4 million ($46.2 million)2
.
Pink Star to be auctioned at
Sotheby’s Geneva
(Nov 2013): Est. value >$60m
118ct D flawless oval
diamond: Sold for $30.6m in
Hong Kong (Oct 2013)
Uncertainty leading to difficulty in judging and volatile short term development
418 October 2013 |
PERSISTENT SCEPTICISM AMONG INVESTORS
Why investors don’t like diamonds… despite relative performance and positive diamond outlook
Relatively small diamond investment market Notoriously opaque requiring specific insider knowledge from investors
Apparent rough price fluctuations No clear benchmark with lack of industry rough price list
Polished prices not 100% aligned with rough prices Difficulty in predicting correlation between rough and polished markets
Polished diamond grading perceived as subjective
Valuation of investment grade diamonds is complex
Resale value of polished diamonds not always attractive
Wide ranging factors affecting valuation of diamond
exploration or mining projects
Including diamond price movement, political risk, mining project risks
Establishing fair entry point for diamond investment Limited access to players with scale could be alleviated by Alrosa IPO
Analysts offer cautious optimism at best
Erosion of shareholder value of diamond exploration and mining companies
over last 15 yrs
Poor sector record Few publicly-known diamond investment success stories
518 October 2013 |
DIAMOND INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS:
CONSUMER APPETITE FOR DIAMONDS HAS DECLINED
•  2006 to 2012
•  Diamond content value (retail
sales) grew faster than global
jewellery sales
•  Strong diamond retail performance
• Surging gold and diamond prices
•  Jewellers expected to reduce gold
and diamond content to contain
price points
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, IDEX, Tacy Ltd. Chaim Even-Zohar, Polishedprices.com, Kitco
Total diamond jewellery + diamond content retail sales ($bn) vs
polished diamond and gold price indices (%)
18.5 20.2 18.4 15.9 18.2 23.6 22.6
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Global diamond jewellery retail sales ($Bn)
Value of the diamond content in the jewellery retail sales ($Bn)
Polished price index average p.a. (2006=100%)
Gold price index (2006=100%)
68.5
73.1
64.8
58.7 60.2
70.8
72.1
0.9%
3.4%
2.9 %
18.5%
CAGR (2006-12)
$bn %
Jewellery produced from Rockwell diamonds
618 October 2013 |
KEY DRIVERS OF FUTURE DIAMOND DEMAND: HIGH NET WORTH
INDIVIDUALS (HNWI) AND CHINESE ENGAGEMENT RINGS
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, CapGemini
•  ±5% historic growth p.a.: Number + average wealth of HNWIs
•  Trend anticipated to persist to 2015
•  Industry challenge: Maintain share of increased wealth spent on
diamonds and diamond jewellery
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
Number of HNWIs (M)
HNWI Wealth ($Tr)
Number (m) and wealth ($tr) of HNWI
m
CAGR (1999-2011): 5.1%
CAGR (1999-2011): 5.8%
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, De Beers
$tr
First time brides receiving a diamond engagement ring
•  40 yrs to reach 80% penetration in USA
•  Japan needed ±30yrs to reach 77%
•  Significant headroom in China: 10-20 yrs until saturation
•  Millions of additional Chinese brides receiving diamond
engagement rings in the future
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
USA
Japan
China
Possible saturation level
80%
77%
1%10% 5%
31%
718 October 2013 |
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
2022F
2023F
Polished diamond demand: Value
of the diamond content in the
jewellery retail sales
Rough diamond demand (Bain &
Co. base case)
Rough diamond demand (Bain &
Co. lower case)
Trendline for the polished demand
based on 2003-2012 data
POSITIVE LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS: DEMAND FOR POLISHED AND
ROUGH DIAMONDS EXPECTED TO RISE
CAGR (2003-12): 4.8%
CAGR (2012-23): 5.1%
CAGR (2012-23): 4.2%
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, IDEX, Tacy, Bain & Co.
Polished and rough diamond demand (actual and forecast) ($bn)
•  Rough demand: Expected to grow
between 4.2% and 5.1% p.a. until
2023 (Bain & Co.)
•  Rough and polished demand:
Expected to correlate long-term
•  Clear long-term trend: Increasing
demand
•  Short term deviations from trend
line anticipated: Both up and down
Deviation from the
long term trend
Polished
demand
Rough
demand
Large stones recovered by Rockwell in 2010
818 October 2013 |
195-205 230-240
320-330
470-480
610-620
855-895
980-990 1,010-1,020
365-375 315-325
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
World diamond exploration spend ($m)
Source: NBF Research; Metals Economic Group
CAGR
26%
CAGR
-64%
ROUGH DIAMOND SUPPLY FORECAST TO DECLINE AFTER 2018:
SUPPLY DEFICIT EXPECTED TO ARISE
• Factors impacting supply: Low liquidity for new projects
•  Lack of market transparency
•  Difficulty in finding diamond resources
•  Price volatility
•  The global financial crisis
• Inadequate historic investment: Replacement of existing
diamond production
•  Direct impact on future diamond supply
Rough diamond supply actual and forecast (mcts)
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co, Allan Hochreiter, Charles Stanley Securities
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
2022F
2023F
Rough diamond supply - Bain & Co.
Rough diamond supply - Allan Hochreiter
Rough diamond supply - De Beers, Charles Stanley Securities
918 October 2013 |
ADDITIONAL SUPPLY OPTIONS:
INSUFFICIENT TO BRIDGE SUPPLY DEFICIT
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co. Industry publications
Additional rough diamond supply from potential new projects and
expansions (kcts)
2014F 2017F 2020F 2023F
ALROSA	
  GROUP	
  PRODUCTION	
  increases 1,811	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,682	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   6,768	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   6,853	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
BUNDER -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   2,500	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   2,500	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   2,500	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
GAGHOO 100	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   230	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   230	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   230	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
GAHCHO	
  KUE -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,500	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,500	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,500	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
GRIB 2,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
KARPINSKOGO-­‐1	
  /	
  LOMONOSOV 1,656	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   2,466	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   4,647	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   5,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
KRONE	
  ENDORA 180	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   180	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   180	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   180	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
LACE -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   300	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   300	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   300	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
LERALA 250	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   500	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
MERLIN 50	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   250	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   250	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   250	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
PETRA	
  EXPANSION -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   1,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   2,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   2,000	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
RENARD -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   1,600	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   1,600	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   1,600	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
STAR	
  ORION	
  SOUTH -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   1,700	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   1,700	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
TOTAL 6,047	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   22,208	
  	
  	
  	
   28,675	
  	
  	
  	
   29,113	
  	
  	
  	
  
•  Limited additional supply including potential new projects and expansions
•  Potential new projects and expansions likely to add only limited new future supply
Total supply forecast and expected supply from
potential new projects and expansions (mcts)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2014F 2017F 2020F 2023F
Total diamond supply forecast by Bain & Co.
Supply from potential new diamond projects and expansions
(DMM estimate)
1018 October 2013 |
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Rough diamond demand forecast - Bain & Co. base case for demand forecast
Rough diamond demand - Bain & Co. lower case for demand forecast
Rough diamond supply forecast - Bain & Co. base production forecast
Rough diamond supply forecast - Bain & Co. including production increase
POSITIVE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR DIAMOND PRODUCERS:
EVEN UNDER CONSERVATIVE SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIO
Demand
forecast
Rough diamond supply and demand forecast (2012 prices) ($m)
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co.
•  Diamond supply-demand gap: Appears
inevitable
•  But, there are still some questions:
•  When will the supply deficit emerge?
•  How wide will the supply gap become?
•  What will be the mix of reactions that fills
this gap?
•  How far will the supply deficit translate
into increased diamond prices or diamond
substitution?
Supply
forecast
Supply
deficit
1118 October 2013 |
SUPPLY SIDE GAP: LONG TERM IMPACT OF RECYCLING AND
LAB-GROWN DIAMONDS
•  Catalyst for significant polished diamond recycling: More established polished diamond investment market
•  Impediment for recycling: Difficulty evaluating polished diamonds and low liquidity in investment diamonds
•  Still more attractive to keep diamonds: Sale to retailers generally at deep discounts
Recycling: Not new to the industry but gaining ground
•  Technology developed some time ago: Technological improvements enabled higher volume / lower cost production of
high-quality diamonds
•  Misperception among natural diamond stakeholders: Selling lab-grown diamonds for jewellery more profitable than
industrial end-uses
•  Fact: Industrial application for optical, electrical and cutting tool applications more lucrative
•  High production costs for jewellery-grade synthetics: Synthetic producers likely to remain focused on industrial sector
•  Production of jewellery-grade lab-grown diamonds in 2012 estimated 50-100k carats vs 130mcts of natural
diamonds: Few synthetics actually used in jewellery
•  Rapid advances expected for lab-grown diamond production technology: Jewellery application will become more
attractive for producers
Lab-grown (synthetic) diamonds: Jewellery end use still low
1218 October 2013 |
ROUGH AND POLISHED DIAMOND PRICES:
OUTPERFORMED OTHER KEY COMMODITIES
Price indices for diamonds and other commodities 2010-2013 (2010 Jan=100%)
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, eDiamond, polishedprices.com, indexmundi, Johnson Matthey, IMF
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Rough Diamond Price Index
Polished Diamond Price Index
Copper Price Index
Commodity Price Index (Non-Fuel)
Platinum Price Index
Gold Price Index
1318 October 2013 |
IMPACT OF FUTURE SUPPLY DEFICIT:
PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED TO BENEFIT
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Diamond producers Rough diamond
trading
Diamond
manufacturing
(cutting and
polishing)
Polished diamond
trading
Diamond jewellery
manufacturing
Diamond jewellery
retail
Average operating margins in the diamond pipeline 2012 (%)
16-20%
1-3%
Sequence in the diamond pipeline
2-5%
1-4%
3-5%
4-14%
Highest margin
in the pipeline
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co.
1418 October 2013 |
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
150%
170%
190%
210%
230%
250%
HSBC Global Mining Diamonds Index
S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index
Anglo American Share Price Indexed
S&P 500 Indexed
HIGH HISTORIC CORRELATION: PERFORMANCE OF DIAMOND
SHARES VS DIVERSIFIED MINING & METALS
HSBC Global Diamond Mining Index performance compared to diversified mining
companies and portfolios (Mid price on 1/07/2010=100%)
•  High correlation: Aggregated price
index of diamond miners and S&P/
TSX Capped Diversified Metals &
Mining Index
•  That is, diamond companies perform
on average along diversified mining
portfolios
•  Diamond miners on average
outperformed (three year horizon)
Anglo American, a diversified mining
company
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Yahoo Finance, S&P, HSBC
1518 October 2013 |
SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE: PERFORMANCE OF DIAMOND MINING
PEER GROUP
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Yahoo Finance, HSBC
HSBC Global Diamond Mining Index performance vs peer group diamond miners
(mid price on 1/07/2010=100%)
60%
110%
160%
210%
260%
310%
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
HSBC Global Mining Diamonds Index
Petra Share Price Indexed
Dominion Share Price Indexed
Rockwell Share Price Indexed
Lucara Share Price Indexed
1618 October 2013 |
FEW DIAMOND INVESTMENT OPTIONS: LARGE / LOW COST
MINES HARD TO ACCESS FOR INVESTORS
Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, De Beers
More than 70% of De Beers production is located on the lower half
of the cost curve
28
Higher margin assets
Jwaneng
GahchoKue(project)
Venetia
Orapa
Namdeboperations
Damtshaa
Snaplake
Cost/revenue
Cumulative revenue
Source: De Beers
Diamond mining project cost curve (2012) and projects are difficult to access
DeBeers
Limited access for investors to low cash cost projects: Either part of a diversified mining company or not publicly traded
Cumulative revenues
DeBeers
DeBeers
DeBeers
DeBeers
DeBeers
???
???
???
???
Cost/revenue
1718 October 2013 |
DIAMOND INVESTMENTS:
ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SPECIFIC INVESTORS
•  Diamond producer equities and investment grade diamonds offer attractive market fundamentals with significant
future supply-demand deficit
Positive market fundamentals
•  Diamond investment is for long-term investors as short-term volatility might be difficult to judge without deep
insider knowledge
Diamond equity is for long-term investors
•  Due-diligence and selection of right investment target is important when investing in diamond mining companies
as risks involved need to be judged realistically
Due-diligence is important for diamond equity investors
•  Investment grade diamonds offer a good opportunity for diversified portfolios as alternative investment form
Investment grade diamonds offer an attractive alternative investment class
•  Finding access to attractive diamond producers might require new investment solutions and external support
Finding access to investment opportunities is key
1818 October 2013 |
SUCCESSFUL MARKET PARTICIPANTS EXIST:
CAREFUL SELECTION OF INVESTMENTS IS KEY
•  Direct exposure to diamond market (production vs. exploration)
•  Track record of delivery and success
•  Size of resources
•  Good position on the cost curve
•  Industry and mining knowledge
•  Strong management team
•  Risk management
•  Prudent financial management
•  Consolidation opportunities
Recommended selection criteria for investment in diamond equities
August 2013: 10.3ct mackle; 37.8ct sawable;
13.6ct sawable (Saxendrift Extension)
June 2013: 25.2ct D colour (SHC), 56.8ct
makeable (Saxendrift)
September 2013: 126ct, 169ct makeable
(SHC)
1918 October 2013 |
FEW EXPLORATION / DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES:
CONSOLIDATION POTENTIAL IN CANADA & SOUTHERN AFRICA
Alrosa
De Beers/MPV
Dianor
Dominion
Grizzly Discoveries
Kennady Diamonds
Metalex Ventures
North Arrow
Peregrine
Rio Tinto
Shore Gold
Stornoway
Alrosa
De Beers
Gem
Itm
Lucapa
Mwana
Sml
Transhex
Alrosa
Botswana Diamonds
Debswana
Gem Diamonds
Kimberley Diamond
Petra Diamonds
Tsodilo
Pangolin
CNK
Rio Tinto
De Beers
Lucara
Paragon
Firestone
Namakwa Diamonds
Karelian
Mantle
Sunrise
Res.
True North Gems
Stellar
Sunrise
Delrand
Blue Rock
Diamcor
Diamondcorp
Alrosa
Lukoil
Alrosa
•  Numerous single project companies Ÿ Financing challenges
2018 October 2013 |
CONCLUSION: THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR DIAMONDS
•  Unprecedented changes and volatile short term development
Diamond industry has been difficult to judge
•  Despite positive relative performance and industry outlook
Investors remain cautious of diamonds
•  Consumers still have a strong appetite for diamonds
•  Future demand drivers: High Net Worth Individuals, steady uptake for Chinese engagement rings
•  Long term demand for polished and rough diamonds expected to rise, with some short term deviations
•  Supply deficit anticipated after 2018: Anticipated decline in rough diamond supply
•  Limited additional supply options from potential new projects and expansions: Insufficient to bridge supply deficit
•  Recycling / lab-grown diamonds could reduce supply-demand gap, unlikely to halt positive long-term diamond outlook
Industry fundamentals
•  Producers best positioned to capture impact of anticipated supply deficit
•  Diamond mining stocks on average have been correlated with diversified mining & metals portfolios
•  Significant variance between share price performance of individual diamond mining companies
•  Few investment options for diamond investors: Low cash cost operators typically occur among few large mines or private
companies
Rough and polished diamond prices: Good performance relative to other key commodities
•  Successful market participants exist but careful selection is key
Diamond investments can offer attractive opportunities for specific investors
2118 October 2013 |
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION: QUESTIONS?
116.3 carat sawable, recovered at Saxendrift plant from Saxendrift Extension gravels (August 2013)
2218 October 2013 |
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Rockwell Diamonds Inc.
James Campbell
Chief Executive Officer
Email: jamesc@rockwelldiamonds.com
Tel: +27 (0)11 484 0830
WWW: rockwelldiamonds.com
DMM Advisory Group
Krisztina Kalman-Schueler
Managing Partner
Email: kks@dmmadvisorygroup.com
Tel: +44 (0) 208 832 3765
WWW: dmmadvisorygroup.com
Two identical internally flawless D-colour polished
diamonds weighing 35 carats each. Sold in December
2010 for $232,000 per carat. One of the pair was
polished from a 105ct Saxendrift stone.

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Why diamonds?

  • 1. 118 October 2013 | WHY DIAMONDS? AN INDUSTRY VIEW FOR INVESTORS OCTOBER 2013
  • 2. 218 October 2013 | AGENDA •  Unprecedented changes in the diamond industry •  Investors’ perception of diamonds •  Past diamond demand •  Key drivers of diamond demand •  Long-term diamond demand vs. short-term demand forecast •  Supply forecast •  New supply from potential new projects and expansions •  Supply-demand balance •  Diamond substitution •  Diamond price development •  Profit pool in the pipeline •  Diamond equity performance •  Equity performance of individual diamond producers •  Diamond cost curve •  Investing in diamond equities and investment grade diamonds Four +100 carat rough diamonds recovered by Rockwell: Middle Orange, August/September 2013
  • 3. 318 October 2013 | UNPRECEDENTED CHANGE IN DIAMOND INDUSTRY •  De Beers: Relocating to Botswana •  Oligopoly in place: De Beers + Alrosa dominate 70% of global supply •  Alrosa gaining market share: #1 by 2018? and recent announcement of IPO •  Two major attempts to exit: BHP disposals and attempts by Rio Tinto •  New independent producers: Coming on-stream •  Diamond trade modernizing: Moving towards a free market Changes in industry structure •  Banks de-risking: Tightening credit lines to cutting centres •  Devaluing rupee: Causing manufacturing problems in India •  Lack of rough diamond price transparency: An issue for investors Changes in financing •  Fancy colours and large stones: Continued strong demand •  Lack of diamond advertising •  Emerging threat: Lab-grown diamonds Other developments Helena Christensen showing the diamond in 2003 © Getty Images Entertainment Not only has The Pink Star received the highest colour1 and clarity grades from the GIA for pink diamonds, it has also been found to be part of the rare subgroup comprising less than 2 % of all gem diamonds known as Type IIa: stones in this group are chemically the purest of all diamond crystals and often have extraordinary optical transparency. In addition, this extraordinarily important gem is more than twice the size of the magnificent !Graff PinkF G the 24.78 carat fancy intense pink diamond which established a world auction record for a diamond and any gemstone or jewel at $46.2 million at SothebyFs Geneva in 2010. The current record price per carat for a pink diamond ($2,155,332) was set by a 5 carat fancy vivid pink diamond2 . SThe occurrence of pink diamonds in nature is extremely rare in any sizeT, said Tom Moses, senior vice president of the Gemological Institute of America. SItFs our experience that large polished pink diamonds G over ten carats G very rarely occur with an intense colour (V) The GIA Laboratory has been issuing grading reports for fifty years and this is the largest pink diamond with this depth of colour [vivid pink] that we have ever characterisedT* . The 132.5 carat rough diamond was mined by De Beers in Africa in 1999 and painstakingly cut and polished by Steinmetz Diamonds over a period of two years and transformed into this stunning gemstone. Unveiled to the press and public as the _Steinmetz PinkF in Monaco in 2003, the stone was first sold in 2007 and subsequently renamed _The Pink StarF. In 2003, the diamond was shown at the Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, in the Splendor of Diamonds exhibition, along with seven of the worldFs rarest diamonds including the De Beers Millennium Star, the Allnatt diamond, and the Moussaieff Red. In 2005 2006, it was the star attraction of the Diamonds exhibition at the Natural History Museum, London. The stone also features in all authoritative books on the subject. Ever since they were first discovered in the mines of India centuries ago, pink diamonds have been coveted by rulers and prized by connoisseurs. They are probably the most desirable of all the coloured diamonds. Many of the great gems of history happen to be pink diamonds, including the !Williamson', the !Hortense', the !Darya i Nur' and the !Agra'. The sale of The Pink Star continues SothebyFs tradition of bringing some of the rarest and most extraordinary objects to market. SothebyFs Geneva has sold a number of the most valuable diamonds in the world and holds the current world auction record for a diamond and any gemstone or jewel since the sale of the _Graff PinkF an exceptionally rare and truly magnificent Fancy Intense Pink diamond of the purest, vibrant hue, weighing 24.78 carats for CHF 45.4 million ($46.2 million)2 . Pink Star to be auctioned at Sotheby’s Geneva (Nov 2013): Est. value >$60m 118ct D flawless oval diamond: Sold for $30.6m in Hong Kong (Oct 2013) Uncertainty leading to difficulty in judging and volatile short term development
  • 4. 418 October 2013 | PERSISTENT SCEPTICISM AMONG INVESTORS Why investors don’t like diamonds… despite relative performance and positive diamond outlook Relatively small diamond investment market Notoriously opaque requiring specific insider knowledge from investors Apparent rough price fluctuations No clear benchmark with lack of industry rough price list Polished prices not 100% aligned with rough prices Difficulty in predicting correlation between rough and polished markets Polished diamond grading perceived as subjective Valuation of investment grade diamonds is complex Resale value of polished diamonds not always attractive Wide ranging factors affecting valuation of diamond exploration or mining projects Including diamond price movement, political risk, mining project risks Establishing fair entry point for diamond investment Limited access to players with scale could be alleviated by Alrosa IPO Analysts offer cautious optimism at best Erosion of shareholder value of diamond exploration and mining companies over last 15 yrs Poor sector record Few publicly-known diamond investment success stories
  • 5. 518 October 2013 | DIAMOND INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS: CONSUMER APPETITE FOR DIAMONDS HAS DECLINED •  2006 to 2012 •  Diamond content value (retail sales) grew faster than global jewellery sales •  Strong diamond retail performance • Surging gold and diamond prices •  Jewellers expected to reduce gold and diamond content to contain price points Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, IDEX, Tacy Ltd. Chaim Even-Zohar, Polishedprices.com, Kitco Total diamond jewellery + diamond content retail sales ($bn) vs polished diamond and gold price indices (%) 18.5 20.2 18.4 15.9 18.2 23.6 22.6 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Global diamond jewellery retail sales ($Bn) Value of the diamond content in the jewellery retail sales ($Bn) Polished price index average p.a. (2006=100%) Gold price index (2006=100%) 68.5 73.1 64.8 58.7 60.2 70.8 72.1 0.9% 3.4% 2.9 % 18.5% CAGR (2006-12) $bn % Jewellery produced from Rockwell diamonds
  • 6. 618 October 2013 | KEY DRIVERS OF FUTURE DIAMOND DEMAND: HIGH NET WORTH INDIVIDUALS (HNWI) AND CHINESE ENGAGEMENT RINGS Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, CapGemini •  ±5% historic growth p.a.: Number + average wealth of HNWIs •  Trend anticipated to persist to 2015 •  Industry challenge: Maintain share of increased wealth spent on diamonds and diamond jewellery 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Number of HNWIs (M) HNWI Wealth ($Tr) Number (m) and wealth ($tr) of HNWI m CAGR (1999-2011): 5.1% CAGR (1999-2011): 5.8% Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, De Beers $tr First time brides receiving a diamond engagement ring •  40 yrs to reach 80% penetration in USA •  Japan needed ±30yrs to reach 77% •  Significant headroom in China: 10-20 yrs until saturation •  Millions of additional Chinese brides receiving diamond engagement rings in the future 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 USA Japan China Possible saturation level 80% 77% 1%10% 5% 31%
  • 7. 718 October 2013 | 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Polished diamond demand: Value of the diamond content in the jewellery retail sales Rough diamond demand (Bain & Co. base case) Rough diamond demand (Bain & Co. lower case) Trendline for the polished demand based on 2003-2012 data POSITIVE LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS: DEMAND FOR POLISHED AND ROUGH DIAMONDS EXPECTED TO RISE CAGR (2003-12): 4.8% CAGR (2012-23): 5.1% CAGR (2012-23): 4.2% Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, IDEX, Tacy, Bain & Co. Polished and rough diamond demand (actual and forecast) ($bn) •  Rough demand: Expected to grow between 4.2% and 5.1% p.a. until 2023 (Bain & Co.) •  Rough and polished demand: Expected to correlate long-term •  Clear long-term trend: Increasing demand •  Short term deviations from trend line anticipated: Both up and down Deviation from the long term trend Polished demand Rough demand Large stones recovered by Rockwell in 2010
  • 8. 818 October 2013 | 195-205 230-240 320-330 470-480 610-620 855-895 980-990 1,010-1,020 365-375 315-325 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 World diamond exploration spend ($m) Source: NBF Research; Metals Economic Group CAGR 26% CAGR -64% ROUGH DIAMOND SUPPLY FORECAST TO DECLINE AFTER 2018: SUPPLY DEFICIT EXPECTED TO ARISE • Factors impacting supply: Low liquidity for new projects •  Lack of market transparency •  Difficulty in finding diamond resources •  Price volatility •  The global financial crisis • Inadequate historic investment: Replacement of existing diamond production •  Direct impact on future diamond supply Rough diamond supply actual and forecast (mcts) Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co, Allan Hochreiter, Charles Stanley Securities 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Rough diamond supply - Bain & Co. Rough diamond supply - Allan Hochreiter Rough diamond supply - De Beers, Charles Stanley Securities
  • 9. 918 October 2013 | ADDITIONAL SUPPLY OPTIONS: INSUFFICIENT TO BRIDGE SUPPLY DEFICIT Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co. Industry publications Additional rough diamond supply from potential new projects and expansions (kcts) 2014F 2017F 2020F 2023F ALROSA  GROUP  PRODUCTION  increases 1,811             4,682             6,768             6,853             BUNDER -­‐                       2,500             2,500             2,500             GAGHOO 100                     230                     230                     230                     GAHCHO  KUE -­‐                       4,500             4,500             4,500             GRIB 2,000             4,000             4,000             4,000             KARPINSKOGO-­‐1  /  LOMONOSOV 1,656             2,466             4,647             5,000             KRONE  ENDORA 180                     180                     180                     180                     LACE -­‐                       300                     300                     300                     LERALA 250                     500                     -­‐                       -­‐                       MERLIN 50                         250                     250                     250                     PETRA  EXPANSION -­‐                       1,000             2,000             2,000             RENARD -­‐                       1,600             1,600             1,600             STAR  ORION  SOUTH -­‐                       -­‐                       1,700             1,700             TOTAL 6,047             22,208         28,675         29,113         •  Limited additional supply including potential new projects and expansions •  Potential new projects and expansions likely to add only limited new future supply Total supply forecast and expected supply from potential new projects and expansions (mcts) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2014F 2017F 2020F 2023F Total diamond supply forecast by Bain & Co. Supply from potential new diamond projects and expansions (DMM estimate)
  • 10. 1018 October 2013 | 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Rough diamond demand forecast - Bain & Co. base case for demand forecast Rough diamond demand - Bain & Co. lower case for demand forecast Rough diamond supply forecast - Bain & Co. base production forecast Rough diamond supply forecast - Bain & Co. including production increase POSITIVE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR DIAMOND PRODUCERS: EVEN UNDER CONSERVATIVE SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIO Demand forecast Rough diamond supply and demand forecast (2012 prices) ($m) Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co. •  Diamond supply-demand gap: Appears inevitable •  But, there are still some questions: •  When will the supply deficit emerge? •  How wide will the supply gap become? •  What will be the mix of reactions that fills this gap? •  How far will the supply deficit translate into increased diamond prices or diamond substitution? Supply forecast Supply deficit
  • 11. 1118 October 2013 | SUPPLY SIDE GAP: LONG TERM IMPACT OF RECYCLING AND LAB-GROWN DIAMONDS •  Catalyst for significant polished diamond recycling: More established polished diamond investment market •  Impediment for recycling: Difficulty evaluating polished diamonds and low liquidity in investment diamonds •  Still more attractive to keep diamonds: Sale to retailers generally at deep discounts Recycling: Not new to the industry but gaining ground •  Technology developed some time ago: Technological improvements enabled higher volume / lower cost production of high-quality diamonds •  Misperception among natural diamond stakeholders: Selling lab-grown diamonds for jewellery more profitable than industrial end-uses •  Fact: Industrial application for optical, electrical and cutting tool applications more lucrative •  High production costs for jewellery-grade synthetics: Synthetic producers likely to remain focused on industrial sector •  Production of jewellery-grade lab-grown diamonds in 2012 estimated 50-100k carats vs 130mcts of natural diamonds: Few synthetics actually used in jewellery •  Rapid advances expected for lab-grown diamond production technology: Jewellery application will become more attractive for producers Lab-grown (synthetic) diamonds: Jewellery end use still low
  • 12. 1218 October 2013 | ROUGH AND POLISHED DIAMOND PRICES: OUTPERFORMED OTHER KEY COMMODITIES Price indices for diamonds and other commodities 2010-2013 (2010 Jan=100%) Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, eDiamond, polishedprices.com, indexmundi, Johnson Matthey, IMF 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Rough Diamond Price Index Polished Diamond Price Index Copper Price Index Commodity Price Index (Non-Fuel) Platinum Price Index Gold Price Index
  • 13. 1318 October 2013 | IMPACT OF FUTURE SUPPLY DEFICIT: PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED TO BENEFIT 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Diamond producers Rough diamond trading Diamond manufacturing (cutting and polishing) Polished diamond trading Diamond jewellery manufacturing Diamond jewellery retail Average operating margins in the diamond pipeline 2012 (%) 16-20% 1-3% Sequence in the diamond pipeline 2-5% 1-4% 3-5% 4-14% Highest margin in the pipeline Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Bain & Co.
  • 14. 1418 October 2013 | 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150% 170% 190% 210% 230% 250% HSBC Global Mining Diamonds Index S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index Anglo American Share Price Indexed S&P 500 Indexed HIGH HISTORIC CORRELATION: PERFORMANCE OF DIAMOND SHARES VS DIVERSIFIED MINING & METALS HSBC Global Diamond Mining Index performance compared to diversified mining companies and portfolios (Mid price on 1/07/2010=100%) •  High correlation: Aggregated price index of diamond miners and S&P/ TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index •  That is, diamond companies perform on average along diversified mining portfolios •  Diamond miners on average outperformed (three year horizon) Anglo American, a diversified mining company Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Yahoo Finance, S&P, HSBC
  • 15. 1518 October 2013 | SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE: PERFORMANCE OF DIAMOND MINING PEER GROUP Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, Yahoo Finance, HSBC HSBC Global Diamond Mining Index performance vs peer group diamond miners (mid price on 1/07/2010=100%) 60% 110% 160% 210% 260% 310% Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 HSBC Global Mining Diamonds Index Petra Share Price Indexed Dominion Share Price Indexed Rockwell Share Price Indexed Lucara Share Price Indexed
  • 16. 1618 October 2013 | FEW DIAMOND INVESTMENT OPTIONS: LARGE / LOW COST MINES HARD TO ACCESS FOR INVESTORS Source: DMM Advisory Group Analysis, De Beers More than 70% of De Beers production is located on the lower half of the cost curve 28 Higher margin assets Jwaneng GahchoKue(project) Venetia Orapa Namdeboperations Damtshaa Snaplake Cost/revenue Cumulative revenue Source: De Beers Diamond mining project cost curve (2012) and projects are difficult to access DeBeers Limited access for investors to low cash cost projects: Either part of a diversified mining company or not publicly traded Cumulative revenues DeBeers DeBeers DeBeers DeBeers DeBeers ??? ??? ??? ??? Cost/revenue
  • 17. 1718 October 2013 | DIAMOND INVESTMENTS: ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SPECIFIC INVESTORS •  Diamond producer equities and investment grade diamonds offer attractive market fundamentals with significant future supply-demand deficit Positive market fundamentals •  Diamond investment is for long-term investors as short-term volatility might be difficult to judge without deep insider knowledge Diamond equity is for long-term investors •  Due-diligence and selection of right investment target is important when investing in diamond mining companies as risks involved need to be judged realistically Due-diligence is important for diamond equity investors •  Investment grade diamonds offer a good opportunity for diversified portfolios as alternative investment form Investment grade diamonds offer an attractive alternative investment class •  Finding access to attractive diamond producers might require new investment solutions and external support Finding access to investment opportunities is key
  • 18. 1818 October 2013 | SUCCESSFUL MARKET PARTICIPANTS EXIST: CAREFUL SELECTION OF INVESTMENTS IS KEY •  Direct exposure to diamond market (production vs. exploration) •  Track record of delivery and success •  Size of resources •  Good position on the cost curve •  Industry and mining knowledge •  Strong management team •  Risk management •  Prudent financial management •  Consolidation opportunities Recommended selection criteria for investment in diamond equities August 2013: 10.3ct mackle; 37.8ct sawable; 13.6ct sawable (Saxendrift Extension) June 2013: 25.2ct D colour (SHC), 56.8ct makeable (Saxendrift) September 2013: 126ct, 169ct makeable (SHC)
  • 19. 1918 October 2013 | FEW EXPLORATION / DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES: CONSOLIDATION POTENTIAL IN CANADA & SOUTHERN AFRICA Alrosa De Beers/MPV Dianor Dominion Grizzly Discoveries Kennady Diamonds Metalex Ventures North Arrow Peregrine Rio Tinto Shore Gold Stornoway Alrosa De Beers Gem Itm Lucapa Mwana Sml Transhex Alrosa Botswana Diamonds Debswana Gem Diamonds Kimberley Diamond Petra Diamonds Tsodilo Pangolin CNK Rio Tinto De Beers Lucara Paragon Firestone Namakwa Diamonds Karelian Mantle Sunrise Res. True North Gems Stellar Sunrise Delrand Blue Rock Diamcor Diamondcorp Alrosa Lukoil Alrosa •  Numerous single project companies Ÿ Financing challenges
  • 20. 2018 October 2013 | CONCLUSION: THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR DIAMONDS •  Unprecedented changes and volatile short term development Diamond industry has been difficult to judge •  Despite positive relative performance and industry outlook Investors remain cautious of diamonds •  Consumers still have a strong appetite for diamonds •  Future demand drivers: High Net Worth Individuals, steady uptake for Chinese engagement rings •  Long term demand for polished and rough diamonds expected to rise, with some short term deviations •  Supply deficit anticipated after 2018: Anticipated decline in rough diamond supply •  Limited additional supply options from potential new projects and expansions: Insufficient to bridge supply deficit •  Recycling / lab-grown diamonds could reduce supply-demand gap, unlikely to halt positive long-term diamond outlook Industry fundamentals •  Producers best positioned to capture impact of anticipated supply deficit •  Diamond mining stocks on average have been correlated with diversified mining & metals portfolios •  Significant variance between share price performance of individual diamond mining companies •  Few investment options for diamond investors: Low cash cost operators typically occur among few large mines or private companies Rough and polished diamond prices: Good performance relative to other key commodities •  Successful market participants exist but careful selection is key Diamond investments can offer attractive opportunities for specific investors
  • 21. 2118 October 2013 | THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION: QUESTIONS? 116.3 carat sawable, recovered at Saxendrift plant from Saxendrift Extension gravels (August 2013)
  • 22. 2218 October 2013 | FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Rockwell Diamonds Inc. James Campbell Chief Executive Officer Email: jamesc@rockwelldiamonds.com Tel: +27 (0)11 484 0830 WWW: rockwelldiamonds.com DMM Advisory Group Krisztina Kalman-Schueler Managing Partner Email: kks@dmmadvisorygroup.com Tel: +44 (0) 208 832 3765 WWW: dmmadvisorygroup.com Two identical internally flawless D-colour polished diamonds weighing 35 carats each. Sold in December 2010 for $232,000 per carat. One of the pair was polished from a 105ct Saxendrift stone.