Budget Preview 2015-16: 'Acche din' for capital market?

Research Team (Rajat@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5441
Dipankar Mitra (Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5405
18 February 2015
Preview
Budget 2015-16
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
A watershed event
Overhaul of tax/subsidy, reforms, expenditure quality in focus
n FY16 Union Budget would be presented in the backdrop of easing inflation and
interest rates but continued growth challenges which the government needs to
address.
n While deficit targets may be achieved by the measures followed recently, focus areas
are likely to be the following:
I. Balancing fiscal consolidation with need to boost growth through expenditure.
II. Initiate far reaching changes on the taxation front including i) ensuring a non-
adversarial tax regime, ii) steps towards GST and iii) benefit on personal tax.
III. Subsidy resolution, by bringing it down to 1.7% of GDP, to create headroom to
spend on infrastructure.
IV. Reforms acceleration by innovative financing structure and a revamped PPP with
lower risk for private sector.
V. Address long standing issues in the capital market, including high tax incidence.
VI. Rail Budget is likely to launch a plethora of initiatives along with an
improvement in its finances.
Exhibit 1: While broadly adhering to deficit reduction path, headroom for higher plan expenditure maybe created
INR b YoY % (as % of GDP)
FY15 BE FY15E FY16E FY15BE vs
FY14RE
FY15E vs
FY14RE
FY16E vs
FY15RE
FY14 RE FY15 BE FY15E FY16E
Receipts 15,904 16,897 18,250 13 6 8 14.0 13.9 13.4 13.1
Revenue receipts 10,293 11,322 12,479 16 10 10 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.9
Net tax revenue 8,360 8,941 9,882 17 7 11 7.4 7.6 7.1 7.1
Gross tax revenue 11,589 12,708 14,234 18 10 12 10.2 10.6 10.0 10.2
Income tax receipt 2,417 2,622 2,885 18 9 10 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1
Corporate tax receipt 3,937 4,252 4,762 15 8 12 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Custom duties collection 1,751 1,908 2,099 15 9 10 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5
Excise duties collection 1,795 2,052 2,339 15 3 14 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
Service tax receipt 1,649 1,831 2,105 31 11 15 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5
Non-tax Revenue 1,932 2,380 2,597 10 23 9 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9
Capital receipts (net) 5,462 5,576 5,771 8 2 3 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.1
Net market borrowings 4,539 4,541 4,585 2 0 1 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.3
Gross market borrowings 5,639 5,937 6,341 6 5 7 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5
PSU Disinvestment 258 321 400 145 24 25 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3
Expenditure 15,904 16,897 18,250 13 6 8 14.0 13.9 13.4 13.1
Non-plan expenditure 11,149 12,230 12,887 9 10 5 9.8 9.5 9.7 9.2
Non-plan revenue expenditure 10,277 11,217 11,728 8 9 5 9.1 8.7 8.9 8.4
Interest payments 3,801 4,270 4,484 12 12 5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2
Non-plan rev exp on defence 1,248 1,417 1,644 8 14 16 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2
Subsidies outgo 2,555 2,623 2,403 2 3 -8 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.7
Non-plan capital expenditure 872 1,013 1,159 21 16 14 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Plan expenditure 4,755 4,667 5,363 21 -2 15 4.2 4.5 3.7 3.8
Plan revenue expenditure 3,719 4,053 4,653 22 9 15 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.3
Plan capital expenditure 1,037 614 710 17 -41 16 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5
Gross fiscal deficit 5,245 5,149 5,261 1 -2 2 4.6 4.1 4.1 3.8
Revenue deficit 3,703 3,948 3,902 2 7 -1 3.3 2.9 3.1 2.8

Union Budget 2015-16 | Preview
18 February 2015 2
Budget FY16 - a watershed
Prioritizing growth; major tax/subsidy changes; Rail Budget in focus
1. With inflation hitting low ground, growth imperatives come
to the forefront
FY16 Union Budget would be presented amid benign inflation but challenging growth
scenario. While RBI has started to cut rates, we expect it to step it up by 50bp in Apr-14.
Meanwhile, as the government has walked the fiscal tightrope, time has come to
accelerate the reform engine and improve quality of spending to aid growth.
i) The year of low inflation and falling rates
Inflation is sharply down
n Inflation, both retail and wholesale, has rapidly winded down in a short period
of time of last six months on account of moderation in food inflation and the
crash in global commodities.
n We expect CPI inflation to average at 3.9%, while WPI remains near zero at 0.5%
during FY16.
n This would call for a proportionate cut in interest rates. While RBI has initiated
the rate cut with 25bp reduction on Jan 15, 2015, we expect a cumulative 150bp
cut during 2015.
Exhibit 2: FY16 retail inflation to crash to near three-decade
lows
Source: Government, MOSL
Exhibit 3: Rates would need to be cut at least by 150-250bp
to normalize even with RBI's indicative real rates
Source: RBI, MOSL
ii) Mixed evidences on the state of economy
n The revised GDP series by CSO show that India already fared better-than-
thought earlier during the difficult years of FY13, FY14 and FY15. If this trend
continues, FY16 growth would likely reach 8% as per the new series.
n This, however, is at variance from a variety of other macroeconomic and
sectoral indicators that suggest continued headwinds. The most direct evidence
of this is the latest corporate results for 3QFY15, and also aided by IIP, bank
credit and key sector trends.
n Government has started to address a few of the sectoral bottlenecks in the
areas of mining and infrastructure sectors.
n While the non-fiscal measures are largely on track, in view of the particularly
prevailing stress in the private sector, it is a moot question whether growth
needs a fiscal support too.
3.4 3.9 3.9
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FY84
FY86
FY88
FY90
FY92
FY94
FY96
FY98
FY00
FY02
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16E
CPI Inflation (YoY %) Third-lowest CPI
inflation in 3 decades
1.5
0.6
3.1
2.1
RBI's
Indicative
realrate
Realrate
-Long
period
avg
Realrate
with
150bpcut
Realrate
with
250bpcut
Real rate (%)
UNION BUDGET

18 February 2015 3
Exhibit 4: The new series has upgraded and accelerated GDP
growth estimates
Exhibit 5: Meanwhile, corporate results have worsened
sharply
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6: Industrial growth has been slowing down
Exhibit 7: Bank credit growth has plummeted
Source: RBI, MOSL
Exhibit 8: Government has started to address sectoral bottlenecks - but more needs to be
done
5.1
6.9
7.4
8.0
4.5 4.7
5.6
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
New series Old Series
4
13 13
11
14
5 2
0
8
15
11
15
7
2
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
FY14 FY15
Sales Growth PAT Growth
-1.0
1.9
-0.8
-0.4
4.5
1.3
0.5
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
IIP growth (YoY %)
9
12
15
18
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Bank credit (YoY %)
Coal
§ Ordinance for auction
of coal blocks
§ The auction process has
started
Power
§ Separate agri feeder
mooted
§ Focus on T&D and
renewables
Road
§ Kickstarts EPC from PPP
§ Fast environmental
clearance
§ Hikes rail fares
§ Invites private
participation under
various modes
Railways

18 February 2015 4
2. Fiscal correction has followed ready pattern
The fiscal correction for last three years has been rather formula driven. Sharp cutback in
plan expenditure effected as tax collections fall short of optimistic targets. In latter part of
the year, squeezing PSUs for higher dividend, careful construction of spectrum auction and
a rush to disinvestment saved the day for government.
n After the post crisis years of fiscal expansion, India is back on the fiscal
consolidation path for the last three years as per the pre-set medium term
framework.
n A closer look at the methods employed to achieve this reveal application of a
few accounting tricks and some substantial efforts, including the following:
i) Deflated both revenue and expenditure or the government’s size in
comparison with the budgeted estimate.
ii) Tax optimism at the beginning of the year to be matched by a steep cut in
plan expenditure during the course of the year.
iii) Tapping PSUs (including RBI) for higher dividend.
iv) Ensuring success of spectrum auction.
v) Hurried disinvestment in the last quarter.
Exhibit 8: Tax collections have fallen behind the target set
Exhibit 9: Government has cut plan expenditure to achieve
the deficit target
Exhibit 10: Most disinvestments have been pushed to the
fourth quarter to meet fiscal targets…
Exhibit 11: …these methods have allowed the deficit target
to be met
7.4
7.7
7.8
7.6
7.0
7.3 7.4
6.8
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Nettaxrevenue(as%of
GDP)
Budget estimates Revised/Expected
4.9 5.2
4.9
4.54.6
4.1 4.2
3.7
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Planexpenditure(as%of
GDP)
Budget estimates Revised/Expected
3
7
30
60
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q (Apr - Jun) 2Q (Jul - Sep) 3Q (Oct - Dec) 4Q (Jan - Mar)
Series1 5.7
4.8 4.6
4.1
FY12 FY13 FY14 RE FY15 E
Fiscal deficit to GDP

18 February 2015 5
3. The focus areas of FY16 budget
FY16 budget is expected to be a watershed. First is to settle the question of relaxing fiscal
constraints for which influential voices have weighed their opinion. Big changes are
expected on the taxation front in i) ensuring a non-adversarial tax regime, ii) steps towards
GST and iii) benefit on personal tax. The decline in oil prices has provided a unique
opportunity to cut back subsidy to 1.7% of GDP, thus creating headroom to boost
infrastructure. Reforms too may focus on infrastructure, wherein an innovative financing
structure and revamped PPP with lower risk sharing by private sector can reignite the
investment cycle. Capital market may benefit through addressing some of the long pending
demands. Rail Budget too is likely to launch a plethora of initiatives along with an
improvement in its finances.
i) The fiscal math: is there a case for loosening up?
FY15 target challenging but possible to meet
n In its maiden budget, the new government retained the revised deficit target
announced by UPA-II. Maintaining this year’s target is paramount to
demonstrate its capability to achieve goals set, ensure policy continuity and
preserve the investment climate.
n At a first glance, the fiscal situation for FY15 looks challenging during Apr-Dec
2014, with the fiscal deficit already reaching full year’s budget estimate.
However, in the similar vein of last two years, the shortfall in tax revenue is
being sought to be neutralized by no-growth in plan expenditure, higher non-tax
collections and a late impetus to the disinvestment process.
n As per our expectation, the cutback in plan expenditure coupled with higher
non-tax collections (both on account of higher PSUs profits and expected over-
achievement of spectrum auction) would outweigh the loss of revenue on
account of lower tax collection and shortfall in disinvestment.
Exhibit 12: Primarily due to a shortfall in tax revenue…
Exhibit 13: …Plan expenditure has not been allowed to grow
11
16
-7
22
14
19 19
38
27
5
-1
27
7
15
7 5
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
YTD (Apr- Dec)
Net Tax Revenue (YoY %)
17
2
22
4
19
6
16 18
23 25 23
19
11
7
19
0
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Plan Expenditure (YoY %)

18 February 2015 6
Exhibit 14: Thus, a cutback in plan expenditure and higher non-tax revenue to offset the
shortfall in tax and disinvestment
Influential voices have weighed for a relaxation for FY16
n FY16 Budget, though at the crossroads, can be a watershed. On the one hand,
India has embarked on a medium term fiscal framework that has survived the
political regime so far. Complicating this has been the relatively high GDP
growth estimates in the new series that apparently reflect non-recurring
efficiency gains by corporates during the last three years. Investors’ sentiments
too have improved markedly.
n Pitted against these are considerations that a variety of economic indicators, as
highlighted above, continue to demonstrate weaknesses. This has led to some
“influential voices” to seek at least a temporary relaxation from the pre-set
deficit reduction plan and use the additional fiscal space to give a boost to
infrastructure to kickstart the economy.
Exhibit 15: Influential voices have argued for relaxation of deficit reduction plan
Source: Media, MOSL
ii) Taxation - big changes likely
A non-adversarial tax regime
n Government has repeatedly articulated its vision of ensuring a non-adversarial
tax regime and end ‘tax terrorism’ in the words of the finance minister himself.
n Many promises made in FY15 budget in this regard have already been fulfilled,
particularly in the area of transfer pricing.
5,312 5,148
1,041
313
30 210
255
1,083
FiscaldeficitFY15BE
addnettaxshortfall
adddisinvestment
shortfall
addslippageonnon-plan
minusexciseonoil
products
minusnon-tax(PSUs)
minuscutbackinplan
FiscaldeficitFY15E
4.1% of GDP4.1% of GDP
For
•Niti Aayog
•Chief Economic Adviser
•Economists with whom FM had Pre-
budget consultation
Against
•Prime Minister and Finance Minister
•Reserve Bank of India
•Expenditure Commission
•Global and bond market investors
•Edit of most media houses

18 February 2015 7
Exhibit 16: Some recent measures to ensure non-adversarial tax regime
28-Jan-15 Vodafone relief and similar dispensation to others: Government accepted the order of Bombay High Court in the case of
Vodafone India Services Private Limited (VISPL) dated 10.10.2014. The decision is expected to reduce litigation on similar
issues and put to rest the "uncertainty prevailing in the minds of foreign investors and taxpayers in respect of possible transfer
pricing adjustments on transactions related to issuance of shares, and thereby improve investment climate in the country".
20-Jan-15 No summons to senior management of large companies: Government barred tax officials to issues summons to senior
management of large companies except when there are indications of their involvement in a decision making process. Further
summons should be issued only by offices of the rank of superintendent and only after prior written permission of an officer
not below the rank of an assistant commissioner, with reasons to be recorded.
30-Sep-14 Non-adversarial tax regime: Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) was instructed to implement an action plan to evolve
non-adversarial tax administration including the following measures: i) Maintain appointment time, ii) Prompt
acknowledgement of all communication, iii) expeditiously attending to all queries, iv) regular interaction with trade and
industry, v) simplify registration process to obviate the need for physical visit by the taxpayer, vi) facilitate online credit of
refunds, vii) easing of compliance verification norms.
Source: Government, Media, MOSL
Exhibit 17: Government has already fulfilled many of its tax proposals for FY15 Budget
Progress towards Goods and Services Tax
n The constitutional amendment bill for introduction of Goods and Services Tax
(GST) has already been introduced in the Lok Sabha.
n While most of the design and implementation issues are still being evolved, it is
evident from the scope of the constitutional amendment bill that GST would
bring significant benefit to corporates and the government.
n The indirect tax proposals in the budget are likely to conform to the roadmap
for eventual implementation of GST. This may include the following changes:
i) Addressing the inverted duty structure in many sectors.
ii) Rationalization of many prevailing rates towards GST rate.
iii) Partially address the contentious issue of fiscal transfer.
•Cases arising out of retrospective amendment of 2012 addressed
•Legislative and administrative changes to reduce litigation
•Addition of benches to Authority of Advanced Ruling
•Enhancement in the scope of Settlement Commission
•Amended Transfer Pricing Regulation
•Liberalized facility of 5% withholding tax for Indian corporates abroad

18 February 2015 8
Exhibit 18: GST is expected to bring higher revenue for government and many benefits to corporates
Exhibit 19: To address inverted duty structure for success of
‘Make in India’
Source: Media, MOSL
Exhibit 20: Higher devolution of taxes to states - in a gradual
move to Finance Commission’s recommendations
A new direct tax code
n Government is reportedly working on a revised direct tax code (DTC) that
attempts to enforce lower tax burden with improved compliance and reduce the
plethora of exemptions that now plagues the direct tax structure.
n To provide a boost to consumption, government may consider raising the limit
for exemption for personal income tax. To boost investment, deductions
available under various instruments may be raised (including medical due to the
rising cost, and housing, in view of its objective for affordable housing).
GST
BENEFIT
Tax
buoyancy
as more ad
valorem Tax
buoyancy
as
destination
based
Tax
buoyancy
through
better
compliance
Higher
services tax
through
higher tax
Blurring
definition
b/n goods
& service =
less dispute
Wider
applicability
of input tax
credit
Uniformity
of tax
structure
across
states
Collapse of
commodity
categories
to simplify
25 27 28 26 26 26 26 25 26 26 26 28 29 28 27 28 29 30
42
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY15
FY16
States' share in tax revenue
14th Finance Commission Recommendations
Benefits to
Government
Benefits to
corporates
Aluminum, Capital Goods
Cement, Chemicals
Electronics, Paper
Steel, Textiles
Tyres, Autos
Telecom equipment
Petroleum products

18 February 2015 9
Exhibit 21: Middle class can expect some relief in the minimum taxable limit being raised
Exhibit 22: FY16 Budget likely to usher in many changes in the taxation regime
Source: Media, MOSL
iii) Subsidy resolution - unique opportunity
n The sharp decline in oil prices has accorded an unique opportunity to rationalize
subsidy well within the 2% of GDP norm set earlier.
n The under-provisioning of subsidy too may end with major petroleum products
being deregulated and DBT instituted for other cases.
n Halving of oil subsidy alone can achieve nearly half of the fiscal correction
needed (25bp of ~50-60bp) during the year.
Exhibit 23: Decline in oil price is doing half the job of fiscal deficit reduction
n Among other subsidies, several measures aimed at reducing food inflation
would help lower food subsidy by another 10-15% through better targeting.
2005:
135,000
2006: No
change
2007:
145,000
2008:
150,000
2009:
160,000
2010: No
Change
2011:
180,000
2012:
200,000
2013: No
Change
2014:
250,000
2015
???
Direct tax
•Revision in MAT, clarification for SEZs/FPIs
•Deferment of GAAR by two years
•Setting a threshold for taxing indirect share transfer
•Allowing foreign firms to get nod to claim deduction on
DDT
•Relief on personal taxation
Indirect tax
•Correcting the inverted duty structure
•Removal of the plethora of concessions and differential
rates toward GST mean rate
•Streamlining Special Additional Duty
•Raising of service tax rates
•Reimposition of customs duty on crude oil
•Increasing road cess
•Clarification on taxation of E-commerce
856
635
632
304
349
1,175
1,316
1,316
1,853
2,005
0.75
0.49 0.50
0.22 0.22
FY14 FY15 BE FY15 E FY16 E FY17E
Petroleum subsidy (INRb)
Tax & Royalty (excluding corporate tax and dividends) (INRb)
Petroleum subsidy (as % of GDP) (RHS)
Note:Upstream burden assumeda@85% of incremental oil between USD60-70/bbl)

18 February 2015 10
n Urea decontrol and National Fertilizer Policy would be two instruments that are
likely to be deployed to curtail fertilizer subsidy in the medium term.
n To build the infrastructure for targeting necessary to administer subsidies
effectively, the Aadhaar enrolment expanded to cover 60% of the population
from 50%, at the time of the new government assuming office.
n It has also fast forwarded the rollout of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme for
LPG after re-launching it as a new scheme ‘Pratyaksh Hastantarit Labh’ or Pahal.
Exhibit 24: The new government kept up the pace of
Aadhaar issuance to cover 60% of population
Exhibit 25: It has also set a target of moving all households
with cooking gas under DBT by Mar-15
iv) Head and heart: reforms and pet schemes
n More than fiscal maths, FY16 budget would be looked forward for signals it gives
for continuity and acceleration to the reform process.
n Need of the hour is to erect a financing structure for infrastructure that would
involve government funding as seed capital. PPP structure needs to be reworked
with a lower risk by the private sector.
n Some of the INR1b schemes floated in the last budget may see significant
enhancement in their allocation too.
n We expect a rather steep increase in allocations for industrial corridor, smart
cities, power T&D, urban transport, defence, education and tourism.
Exhibit 26: Many reform measures likely to be initiated in the budget
Source: Media, MOSL
632 (New
Govt.
forms)
750
(Current
coverage)
0
200
400
600
800
Sep-10
Apr-11
Nov-11
May-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Feb-15
No. of Aadhaar issued (million)
240
150
37.5
90
150
Total no With gas
connection
DBT at Nov-
14
DBT at
present
Target by
Mar-15
No. in million
Measures taken already
•Populism: Diesel deregulation, hike in rail fares, financial
inclusion and direct benefit transfer
•Legislative (including ordinance): Land acquisition; FDI in
rail, defence; relaxation in labour laws
•Facilitation: Coal block auction, environmental
clearance, easing industrial licencing, doing business
parameters
Measures likely in FY16 budget
•Focus areas: Power (T&D), energy, roads, ports and railways
•Financing infra: Newer financing models for infrastrucutre with
government participation
•Reworking PPP: A new improved framework for PPP with risk
mitigation for the private sector

18 February 2015 11
Exhibit 27: Government announced various INR1b schemes last year that may be upscaled this time
Area Name/Details of the scheme Area Name/Details of the scheme
Manufacturing National Industrial Corridor Authority - Pune Rural
entrepreneurship
Village Entrepreneurship Programme
Power Ultra Modern Super Critical Coal Based
Thermal Power Technology
Employment Counseling facility at employment exchanges
Power 1 MW Solar Parks on the banks of canals Employment Young Leaders Programme
Urban Transport Metro projects in Lucknow and Ahmedabad Governance Good Governance
Water resource Interlinking of rivers Education - virtual
classroom
Communication Linked Interface for
Cultivating Knowledge (CLICK)
Agriculture Two institutes at Assam and Jharkhand Education Modernization of Madrasas
Agriculture Agri-Tech Infrastructure Fund Climate change National Adaptation Fund
Agriculture Soil Health Card Conservation National Centre for Himalayan Studies in
Uttarakhand
Agriculture Indigenous cattle breeds and inland fisheries Defence War Memorial and Museum
Agriculture Kisan (Farmers') TV Defence Technology Development Fund
Agriculture Commercial organic farming in North East Communication Community Radio Stations
Tourism National Mission on Pilgrimage Rejuvenation
and Spiritual Augmentation Drive (PRASAD)
Tribal welfare Van Bandhu Kalyan Yojana
Tourism National Heritage City Development and
Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY)
Girl Child Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao
Tourism Archeological sites preservation Sports Sports university in Manipur
Tourism Development of ghats and beautification of
riverfront
Sports Training for forthcoming Asian and
Commonwealth games
v) ‘Acche din’ for capital market?
n Capital market, in the past, has been saddled with arbitrary taxes and over-
regulation.
n FY16 budget has raised expectations to more friendly measure to help improve
domestic and foreign investors.
Exhibit 28: Overburdened capital market expects some relief this time
Source: Media, MOSL
Taxrelatedmeasures
Reduce dividend
distribution tax
Reduce securities
transaction tax
MF retirement plans
with tax benefits
Reduce commodity
transaction tax and
exempt some more
from the purview of it
Rejig small investment
schemes like RGESS
Non-taxrelated
Implement minimum
dividend obligations
for listed companies
Simplify account
opening requirements
Allow demat-linked
bank accounts

18 February 2015 12
vi) Rail Budget to be closely watched
n Along with the general budget, rail budget too assumes significance this time,
with the government identifying it as a focus area and a domain expert minister
being in charge.
n We expect railways to report an improvement in finances, bolstered by freight
revenue, announce new innovative sources of funding and make some headway
in taking the PPP schemes forward, besides announcement toward
improvement in infrastructure, operations and passenger amenities.
Exhibit 29: Major announcements likely in Railway budget
Source: Media, MOSL
Back to
basics on
Railways
Fair changes unlikely; no pass through of lower diesel prices
Progress and expansion of DFC
Rollout and expansion of high speed network
Building of 200-kmph train coaches indegenously
Conneting J&K, North East and hilly regions on a priority basis
Improved design of coaches and vaccum toilets
Plan to eliminate all level crossings
Upgradation of station complexes for comprehensive
government services, skill developments
Significant improvements in passenge amenities

18 February 2015 13
Exhibit 30: FM/government speak… gearing up to meet expectations
Area Statement Source
Innovation Get 'out of the box' ideas for Budget: PM to ministers http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/get-out-of-the-box-
ideas-for-budget-pm-to-ministers-115010500913_1.html
Next budget should be full of new ideas: PM http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/next-budget-
should-be-full-of-new-ideas-pm-114110100885_1.html
Growth GDP growth to be much better in 2015-16: Jaitley http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/gdp-growth-to-be-
much-better-in-2015-16-jaitley-114122900372_1.html
Deficit Government making efforts to stick to fiscal deficit
target, says FM Arun Jaitley
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/budget-
2015-government-making-efforts-to-stick-to-fiscal-deficit-target-says-fm-
arun-jaitley/articleshow/46177035.cms
Fiscal consolidation: Modi govt feels indiscipline may
hit credit rating & RBI’s monetary easing
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/fiscal-
consolidation-modi-govt-feels-indiscipline-may-hit-credit-rating-rbis-
monetary-easing/articleshow/46090076.cms
Reform FM Arun Jaitley hints at reform-packed Budget (focus
on reforms in power, energy, railways and ports and
more public investment into these sectors)
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/budget-
2015-fm-arun-jaitley-hints-at-reform-packed-
budget/articleshow/46143185.cms
Budget to unveil second generation reforms: Jaitley http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/policy/budget-to-unveil-
second-generation-reforms-jaitley/article6626983.ece
Tax Jaitley hints at tax regime of global standards http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/jaitley-hints-
at-tax-regime-of-global-standards-114122900106_1.html
Jaitley hints at not raising tax rates, sops for
manufacturing
http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/jaitley-hints-at-not-
raising-tax-rates-sops-for-manufacturing-115012301119_1.html
Govt mulls scrapping dividend tax http://www.business-standard.com/article/reuters/govt-mulls-scrapping-
dividend-tax-bloomberg-115020500740_1.html
FM for tax reforms, quick decisions to ensure stability http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/fm-for-tax-reforms-
and-quick-decisions-to-ensure-stability-115012700919_1.html
Jaitley says he is against burdening salaried, middle
class with more taxes
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/jaitley-says-he-is-
against-burdening-salaried-middle-class/article6625077.ece
Spending Jaitley hints at more spending cuts http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/jaitley-hints-at-
more-spending-cuts-115020600433_1.html
Disinvestmen
t
Govt ready to privatise sick PSUs, says Jaitley http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-
economic-summit-govt-ready-to-privatise-sick-psus-says-jaitley-
114110600046_1.html
Jaitley: Major disinvestment decisions by March-end http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/jaitley-major-
disinvestment-decisions-by-marchend/article6774739.ece
Power Piyush Goyal asks FM to come out with innovative
models for renewable energy projects
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/budget-
2015-piyush-goyal-asks-fm-to-come-out-with-innovative-models-for-
renewable-energy-projects/articleshow/46232919.cms
Road Road Ministry seeks doubling of allocation to Rs 50K-
crore
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/infrastructure/bud
get-2015-road-ministry-seeks-rs-50k-crore-budget-
allocation/articleshow/46162314.cms
Source: Media, MOSL

18 February 2015 14
Exhibit 31: While broadly adhering to deficit reduction path, headroom for higher plan expenditure maybe created
INR b YoY % (as % of GDP)
FY15 BE FY15E FY16E FY15BE vs
FY14RE
FY15E vs
FY14RE
FY16E vs
FY15RE
FY14 RE FY15 BE FY15E FY16E
Receipts 15,904 16,897 18,250 13 6 8 14.0 13.9 13.4 13.1
Revenue receipts 10,293 11,322 12,479 16 10 10 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.9
Net tax revenue 8,360 8,941 9,882 17 7 11 7.4 7.6 7.1 7.1
Gross tax revenue 11,589 12,708 14,234 18 10 12 10.2 10.6 10.0 10.2
Income tax receipt 2,417 2,622 2,885 18 9 10 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1
Corporate tax receipt 3,937 4,252 4,762 15 8 12 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Custom duties collection 1,751 1,908 2,099 15 9 10 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5
Excise duties collection 1,795 2,052 2,339 15 3 14 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
Other tax revenue 1,689 1,874 2,149 30 11 15 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5
Service tax receipt 1,649 1,831 2,105 31 11 15 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5
States' share in tax revenue 3,182 3,685 4,270 20 9 16 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.1
Non-tax Revenue 1,932 2,380 2,597 10 23 9 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9
Interest receipt 210 198 198 -6 -6 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Dividend and profits receipts 882 1,052 1,158 2 19 10 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8
Receipts of union territories 11 11 11 1 1 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other non-tax revenue 829 1,119 1,231 22 35 10 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
Capital receipts (net) 5,462 5,576 5,771 8 2 3 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.1
Net market borrowings 4,539 4,541 4,585 2 0 1 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.3
Gross market borrowings 5,639 5,937 6,341 6 5 7 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5
Repayment of mkt borrowings 950 1,397 1,756 46 47 26 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3
Net external assistance 54 57 60 5 5 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Recovery of loans and advances 108 105 110 -3 -3 4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
PSU Disinvestment 258 321 400 145 24 25 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3
Expenditure 15,904 16,897 18,250 13 6 8 14.0 13.9 13.4 13.1
Non-plan expenditure 11,149 12,230 12,887 9 10 5 9.8 9.5 9.7 9.2
Non-plan revenue expenditure 10,277 11,217 11,728 8 9 5 9.1 8.7 8.9 8.4
Interest payments 3,801 4,270 4,484 12 12 5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2
Non-plan rev exp on defence 1,248 1,417 1,644 8 14 16 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2
Subsidies outgo 2,555 2,623 2,403 2 3 -8 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.7
Non-plan capital expenditure 872 1,013 1,159 21 16 14 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Non-plan cap. exp on defence 789 907 1,052 20 15 16 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Plan expenditure 4,755 4,667 5,363 21 -2 15 4.2 4.5 3.7 3.8
Plan revenue expenditure 3,719 4,053 4,653 22 9 15 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.3
Revenue exp on central plan 2,652 2,411 2,748 -51 -9 14 2.3 1.0 1.9 2.0
Assistance to states plan 1,067 1,643 1,905 204 54 16 0.9 2.5 1.3 1.4
Plan capital expenditure 1,037 614 710 17 -41 16 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5
Capital exp on central plan 913 485 563 18 -47 16 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.4
Loan to states plan 124 129 147 11 10 14 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Gross fiscal deficit 5,245 5,149 5,261 1 -2 2 4.6 4.1 4.1 3.8
Revenue deficit 3,703 3,948 3,902 2 7 -1 3.3 2.9 3.1 2.8
Primary deficit 1,445 879 777 -27.9 -39 -12 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6
GDPmp 113,551 126,538 139,824 13.4 12.5 10.5
Fiscal deficit as % of GDP 4.6 4.1 3.8

18 February 2015 15
Exhibit 32: Plethora of indirect taxes need to be simplified
BUDGET RATES Customs (%) Excise (%)
Type FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Automobiles
New Cars - Completely knocked down units (CKD) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 - - - - -
New Cars - Semi-knocked down units (SKD) 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.8 - - - - -
New Cars - Completely Built units (CBU) 61.8 61.8 61.8 - - - - -
New Cars - specified small cars 61.8 61.8 61.8 - - 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
New Cars - others 61.8 61.8 61.8 - - 20 22.7 22.7 24.7 24.7
Second hand cars 103 103 103 - - 20 22.7 22.7 24.7 24.7
Utility Vehicles 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 61.8 8 22.7 22.7 24.7 24.4
Two-wheelers 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.8 61.8 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Trucks (LCVs & MHCVs) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Buses (LCVs & MHCVs) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Tractors 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 - - - - -
Steel items 5.2 5.2 5.2 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Pig iron 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Engine & Engine Parts - Four-wheelers 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 12 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Engine & Engine Parts - Two-wheelers 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 12 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Drive transmission, steering, Suspension and
braking parts, Silencer,Exhaust pipes & radiatiors -
Four-wheelers 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 12 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
braking parts, Silencer,Exhaust pipes & radiatiors -
Two-wheelers 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 12 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Electrical Parts 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 12 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Engine & Engine Parts 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
braking parts, Silencer,Exhaust pipes & radiatiors 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Electrical Parts 10.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Raw Materials for auto components 5.2 5.2 7.7 7.7 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Batteries 10.3 10.3 - 12.4 -
Tyres
New Tyre 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Tyres (used /retreaded tyres) - Truck and bus 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Tyres (used /retreaded tyres) - Car cross ply /
radials 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Raw Materials for tyres - Natural rubber 20.6 7.7 20 20.3 20 - - - - -
Raw Materials for tyres - SBR (1502) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Raw Materials for tyres - PBR (1220) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Raw Materials for tyres - NTC fabric 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Raw Materials for tyres - Carbon black (N330) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3
Cement
Portland cement 0 0 0 0 0 8 10.3
10.3+ 12.4+ 12.4
Rs160/t Rs120/t +Rs120/t
White cement 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8 16.5 16.5 12.4 12.4
Cement clinker 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8 10.3 10.3+ 12.4 12.4

18 February 2015 16
Rs200/t
Gypsum 5.2 5.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 14.4 0 0 0 0
Pet coke 5.2 5.2 2.6 0 0 16.5 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.4
Limestone 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0 0 0 0
Non-Coking Coal 5.2 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Consumer Durables
B/W TVs 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Colour TVs (CRT,LCD) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Refrigerators 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Room ACs 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Washing machines 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
LCD Panel 5.2 5.2 5.2 0 0 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
CPT and glass parts 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Compressors, Thermostat & Tubes 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Steel 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Fertilizers
Urea 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 - - - 12.4 12.4
DAP 5 5.2 5.2 5 5 - - - 12.4 12.4
MOP 5.2 5.2 5.2 5 5 - - - 12.4 12.4
Ammonia 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 - - - 12.4 12.4
Phosphoric acid 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 - - - - -
Sulphur 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 - - - - -
Rock phosphate 2.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 - - - - -
Naphtha 0 - - - - - - - - -
Fuel oil / LSHS (Non-Feed Use) 0 - - - - - - - - -
Contracted LNG 5 5 5 5 - - - -
IT : Hardware
Packaged software 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Computers 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
Monitor 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
Keyboard 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
Mouse 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
Printer 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
FDD, HDD, CD-ROM drive and other storage
drives3 0 0 0 0 5.2 6.2 6.2
Motherboards 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
Microprocessors 0 0 0 8.2 10 5.2 6.2 6.2
Routers 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
Modems 0 0 0 8.2 10 10.3 12.4 12.4
Media & Entertainment
Digital cinema equipment 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Broadcasting equipment 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Set-top boxes 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Non-ferrous
Aluminium ingots 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4

18 February 2015 17
Aluminium products - Flat-rolled products 7.7 7.7 7.7 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Aluminium products - foils 7.7 7.7 7.7 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Aluminium scrap 0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Non-coking coal 5.2 5.2 5.2 0 0 - 10.3 0 0 0
Caustic soda 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Calcined petroleum Coke 0 5.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 8.2 10.3 10.3 14.4 12.4
Copper 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Copper scrap 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Copper ore and concentrates 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 8.2 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1
Lead 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Lead ore and concentrates 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 8.2 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1
Zinc 0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Zinc ore and concentrates 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 8.2 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1
Oil & Gas
Motor spirit (MS) 2.6 7.5 7.5 2.5 2.6 13.4
Rs14.4 Rs14.4 Rs9.5 Rs9.5
/ltr /ltr /ltr /ltr
Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) 5.2 10 10 8 8.2 8.2 8 8 8.2 8.2
Naphtha 5.2 5 5 5 19.6 14.4 14 14 14.4 14.4
Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO) - Industrial use 5.2 10 10 5 5 14.4 14 14 14.4 14.4
Superior Kerosene Oil (SKO) - Domestic use 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
High-speed diesel (HSD) 2.6 7.5 7.5 2.6 2.6 3.6
Rs4.6 Rs2.6 Rs3.6 Rs3.6
/ltr /ltr /ltr /ltr
Fuel oil 5.2 10 10 5 5 14.4 14 14 14.4 14.4
Liquefied Petroleum gas (LPG) - Domestic use 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bitumen 5.2 10 10 5 5 14.4 14 14 14.4 14.4
Crude oil 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas - Power (Priority sector) 5.2 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 14 14
Natural Gas - Non Power (priority sector) 5.2 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 14 14
LNG-Power 5.2 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LNG-Non Power 5.2 5 5 5 5 0 14 14
CNG 5.2 5 5 5 0 14.4 14 14 0 0
Paper
Newsprint 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Maplitho 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.2
Duplex board 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.2
Art Board 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.2
Wood pulp (hard) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0 0 1 2.1 2.1
Wood pulp (soft) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0 0 1 2.1 2.1
Waste paper (OCC) 5.2 5.2 2.6 0 0 0 0 0 6 6.2
Petrochemicals
Polymers - hdPE (IM) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers - ldPE 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers - lldPE 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers - PPHP (IM) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers - PVC 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers - PS (GP) 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4

18 February 2015 18
Polymers - ABS 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers - SBR (1502) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Polymers - PBR (1220) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - EDC 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - VCM 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - Styrene 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - Ethylene 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - Propylene 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - Butadiene 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - Benzene 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - Toluene 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Basic petrochemicals & intermediates - Naphtha 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 14.4 14.4 14.4 12.4 12.4
Commodity Chemicals - LAB 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Commodity Chemicals - PAN 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Commodity Chemicals - Methanol 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Commodity Chemicals - Phenol 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Commodity Chemicals - Orthoxylene 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Pharmaceuticals
Bulk drugs 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Formulations 10.3 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.2
Steel
GP/GC 5.2 5.2 5.2 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
CR coils 5.2 5.2 5.2 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
HR coils 5.2 5.2 5.2 7.7 7.7 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Bars and rods 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Alloy steel 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Billets/Slabs 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Pig iron 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
HBI/Sponge iron 5.2 - - - - 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Ferro alloys 0 - - - - 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Steel melting scrap 0 - - - - 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Iron ore 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 21 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Coking coal (< 12% ash content) 0 - - - - - - - - -
Coking coal (> 12% ash content) 0 - - - - - - - - -
Metallurgical coke 0 - - - - - - - - -
Non-coking coal 5.2 5.2 5.2 0 0 - - 5 1 -
Sugar
Domestically produced sugar- Free Sale na NA NA NA NA 979 978.5 978.5 978.5 978.5
Domestically produced sugar- levy na NA NA NA NA 639 638.6 638.6 638.6 638.6
Imported white sugar 61.8 0 0 10.3 10.3 979 978.5 978.5 978.5 NA
Imported raw sugar 0 0 0 10.3 10.3 979 978.5 978.5 978.5 NA
Molasses 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 773 772.5 772.5 772.5 772.5
Telecom
Cellular phones 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 10.3 10.3 1 1
Cellular phones (price <= Rs 2000) 1 1
Cellular phones (price > Rs 2000) 1 6.2

18 February 2015 19
Telecom networking equipment 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
base stations 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Wireless Internet data card 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HDSL systems 0 0 0 0 0 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Apparels & Fabrics
Cotton-based apparels 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1 5.2
6.18/ 6.18/
12.36 12.36
Non cotton-based apparels 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Cotton woven fabrics 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.2
Non-cotton woven fabrics 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Cotton knitted fabrics 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.2
Non-cotton knitted fabrics 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Cotton yarn (40s) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 4.1 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.2
Cotton 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fibre & intermediates*
PSF 1.2d 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
VSF 1.5d 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
POY 126d 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
VFY 120d 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
PV 30s (70:30) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
PTA 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
MEG 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 8.2 10.3 10.3 12.4 12.4
Paraxylene 0 0 0 0 0 4.1 4.1 5.2 12.4 12.4
* Man made; Note: Data after FY14 not available Source: Government

18 February 2015 20
Disclosures
This document has been prepared by Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred to as Most) to provide information about the company(ies) and/sector(s), if any, covered in the report and may be
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