Community member disengagement: a fundamental threat for viable research communities, presented by Steven Debaere (PhD IESEG) in collaboration with InSites Consulting at the ASC International Conference in Winchester on September 9, 2016.

1. ASC 2016 09/09/2016 – Winchester (UK)
Steven Debaere | Sophie Van Neck | Tom De Ruyck | Kristof Coussement
MINORITY REPORT IN RESEARCH COMMUNITIES
MEMBER DISENGAGEMENT CAN BE PREVENTEDINTHE FUTURE CAN BE SEEN

2. A Research Community as an Insight Delivery System
#minorityreport

3. The Challenge of Community Viability
#minorityreport
>50%
OF ONLINE COMMUNITIES
FAIL TO GENERATE
SUCCESFUL OUTCOMES
(Sarner, 2008)

4. Member Disengagement as Viability Challenger
1
2
Low participation quantity
Low participation quality
Low participation in community topics
Posts that contain insufficient argumentation
#minorityreport

5. How to reduce member disengagement?
Reputation mechanism?
Content authoring?
#minorityreport
REACTIVE
SUBJECTIVE
TIME/COST INEFFICIENT

6. How to reduce member disengagement?
Reputation mechanism?
Content authoring?
#minorityreport
REACTIVE
SUBJECTIVE
TIME/COST INEFFICIENT
Better approach?
PROACTIVE
OBJECTIVE
TIME/COST EFFICIENT

8. I LEARN THE 4 PRINCIPLES
OF Proactive Community
Management
III
II
IV
To reduce member disengagement effectively ….
#minorityreport

9. Murder! Murder!
“What’s coming?
Double homicide:
one male, one
female. Killer's
male, white, 40's.”
“I'm placing
you under
arrest for the
future murder
of Sarah
Marks”
“The future can be seen”
I - PREDICTION
#minorityreport

10. Predictive analytics
I - PREDICTION
Untapped potential of research communities
Prediction model for member disengagement
I - PREDICTION
1. %
2. Risk indicator
3. Proactive alarm system
Output 
#minorityreport

11. I - PREDICTIONI - PREDICTION
QUANTITY
QUALITY
Low High
Low
High
#minorityreport
Community
Stars
Passivists
High-
Potentials
Annoyers
1
2
TIP! Integrate predictions in community
management support system

12. I - PREDICTIONQUALITY
QUANTITY
I - PREDICTION
Low High
Low
High
#minorityreport
87%
32%
81%
20%
27%
79%
32%
85%
12%
91%
86%
93%
91%
94%
11%
13%
9%
22%
17%
14%19%
11%
94%
17%
 Low quantity risk
 Low quality risk
TIP! Integrate predictions in community
management support system
1
2
94%
17%

13. “We see what they see”
II - DETECTION
“All we have to
run on are the
images that they
produce”
can be seen
“We see what they see”
#minorityreport

14. II - DETECTION
AugJul Sep Oct Nov
II - DETECTION
Pattern recognition
Pursue
Constructivity
Less recent, less
frequent & shorter
posts = lower-
level members
Big size breeds
big problems
Allow swearing,
but avoid raging
anger
1 2 3 4
#minorityreport
TIPS!
Sentiment & member activity analysis
Past Future
Performance explanation

15. “The system can’t be wrong”
III - PRECISION
“There hasn't been a murder in
six years. There's nothing
wrong with the system. It's
perfect.”
“Flaws.
You ever get any
false positives?”
“Tell me exactly
what it is you're
looking for?”
#minorityreport

16. “100% predictive accuracy is not possible”
I - PREDICTIONIII - PRECISION
“Successful implementation requires
more than adequate predictive ability”
#minorityreport
50% 100%
78%71%
Good
….
Bad
Low
Quant
Low
Qual
ComprehensibilityJustifiability
Predictive Accuracy
TIP! Make a trade-off decision
for succesful adoption
(Martens et al, 2008)
Random
Choice

17. “Murder can be stopped”
IV - PREVENTION
“We are arresting
individuals who've broken
no law, but they will.”
“The fact that you prevented
it from happening doesn't
change the fact that it was
going to happen.”
#minorityreport

18. I - PREDICTIONIV - PREVENTION
Three-stage approach
prediction model
framework
CRM info
prevention suggestion
1 2
QUALITY
QUANTITY
Low
High
Low High
#minorityreport
TIP!
HUMANMACHINE
identify contextualize finalize
MACHINE
interpretation
action
3
!
Prevention campaign
PERSONALIZATION = KEY
GO!

19. THEREFORE, USE THE 4 PRINCIPLES
OF Proactive Community
Management
Conclusion & takeaways
DETECTION
PREVENTIONPRECISION
PREDICTION
I II
III IV
#minorityreport
Member disengagement jeopardizes
community viability & must be battled
effectively*….
* proactive – objective – time/cost efficient

21. Steven Debaere | Sophie Van Neck | Tom De Ruyck | Kristof Coussement
MINORITY REPORT IN RESEARCH COMMUNITIES
MEMBER DISENGAGEMENT CAN BE PREVENTEDINTHE FUTURE CAN BE SEEN
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! #minorityreport