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China goes Global:
Present Theories and Future Directions
Ilan Alon, Ph.D.
Professor of Strategy and Int Marketing, UiA, Norway
Editor, International Journal of Emerging Markets
Editor, European Journal of International Management
China Goes Global (2006-Present)
www.chinagoesglobal.org
Why Study Chinese FDI?
• China is among the world’s largest investors
• China’s OFDI growth is exponential
– Chinese OFDI is small as a percentage of GDP
– Chinese share of global investment position
– OFDI is part of the Chinese policy of going global
• Good testing ground for generalizability of FDI
theories
– Do Chinese investors follow the same pattern as their
western counterparts?
– Do the assumptions of OFDI theories hold for the
Chinese?
China OFDI Flows and Position
Mercator’s Chinese OFDI Stock
Projections
Why are the Chinese interested in FDI?
Mudambi (2017), JIBS
Theories of Chinese/EM multinationals
• Ravi Ramamurti
• Marshall Meyer
• Alan Rugman
• Child & Marinova
• Simon Collinson
• Yadong Luo
• Jean-Francois Hennart
• Dunning and Lundan
Ravi Ramamurti
• Why Chinese firms internationalize, before
having strong international competitive
advantage (ex., Geely, Lenovo)?
– Chinese do have a comparative advantage
• Why Chinese internationalize in the «wrong
way»?
– Too fast, high equity, wrong countries
– Not following the Uppsala model
• Incremental internationalization
Some Answers
Different Investment Paradigm
• External Environment
– Global context of internationalization
– Chinese investment is in mature industries
– Assumption: strong political and institutional environment
at home
– Reality: Leverage home country advantage
– Many “go out” to overcome domestic institutions
• Internal Environment
– Stage of evolution of EMM/China
– Assumption: “Going out” to signal strength
– Reality: Chinese companies buy competitive strengths
– New business models, access to resources
Domestic Market Barriers
Marshall Meyer Theory
Rugman’s Review
Alon, I., & McIntyre, J. R. (Eds.). (2008).
Globalization of Chinese enterprises. Palgrave
Macmillan.
Rugman’s 2x2 Model/Theory
CSAs
Land, labor, nat
resources,
climate, location
EMNE
Competitive Advantage
GSAs
Infrastructure,
human capital
business climate,
industrial policy
FSAs
Brands,
technology,
distribution,
oper. expertise,
etc.
Deconstructing Country Specific Advantages
© Ravi Ramamurti, Presentation at China Goes Global Conference, Harvard U., Oct 2012
1Ramamurti, chapter 6 in Williamson, P, Ramamurti, R., Fleury A., and Fleury MT. (eds.) The Competitive
Advantage of Emerging Market Multinationals. Cambridge University Press, 2013)
Deconstruction the Political Economy
John Child Theory
Child, J., & Marinova, S. (2014). The Role of Contextual Combinations in the Globalization of
Chinese Firms. 情境性组合在中国企业全球化中的作用. Management and Organization
Review, 10(3), 347-371.
Deconstructing Firm-Specific Advantages
Simon Collinson on FSAs
Classifying Firms by Ownership and Organization
Yadong Luo: Ownership-Diversification Matrix
中国国际企业/跨国公司的类型:所有权-多样化矩阵
World-stage
Aspirant
世界舞台进取者
Transnational
Agent
跨国代理
Niche
Entrepreneur
小而精的创业者
Commissioned
Specialist
委托专家
Non-state owned State owned
非国有的 国有的HInternationalDiversificationL
高
国
际
多
样
化
低
A Critique of OLI
JF Hennart: Theory of EMM
Hennart, J. F. (2012). Emerging market multinationals and the theory of the
multinational enterprise. Global Strategy Journal, 2(3), 168-187.
Host Market Investment Motivations
Dunning and Lundan
Largest SOE Motivations for OFDI
Alon, I., Wang, H., Shen, J., & Zhang, W. (2014). Chinese state-owned
enterprises go global. Journal of Business Strategy, 35(6), 3-18.
Vexing Research Questions
1. Boundary conditions for theoretical
adaptation
2. Data problems and non-sensical results
3. Non-linear, non-Western relations
4. Operational difficulties and dynamic
capabilities
5. Is China a strategic threat or opportunity?
1. Conditions for Theoretical Adaptation
• When institutions matter (dometic or foreign or
their interactions)
• When government influence is relevant
• When culture is relevant
• When phenomena is indigenous
Alon, Ilan, John Child, and Shaomin Li "Globalization
of Chinese firms: Theoretical universalism or
particularism." Management and Organization
Review 7.2 (2011): 191-200.
Boundary Conditions Vary
• Chinese Firms Motivations Show Similarities
– Alon, I., Leung, G. C. K., & Simpson, T. J. (2015). Outward Foreign Direct
Investment by Chinese National Oil Companies. Journal of East-West
Business, 21(4), 292-312.
– Alon, I., Yeheskel, O., Lerner, M., & Zhang, W. (2013).
Internationalization of Chinese entrepreneurial firms. Thunderbird
International Business Review, 55(5), 495-512.
• Corporate Governance, Local Institutions, and CSR Show
Differences
– Are Chinese CEOs Stewards or Agents? Revisiting the Agency–
Stewardship Debate HW Hu, I Alon, Emerging Market Firms in the
Global Economy, 255-277
– Financial marketization and corporate venturing in China: The impact
of provincial-level institutions on the pharmaceutical sector, W Dai, I
Alon, H Jiao, Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, 2015
– Li, S., Fetscherin, M., Alon, I., Lattemann, C., & Yeh, K. (2010).
Corporate social responsibility in emerging markets. Management
International Review, 50(5), 635-654.
2. Data Problems
Example: Political Risk
and Chinese Investment
• MOFCOM data is flawed
– Doesn’t take ultimate investment locations into account
• This is a serious drawback: the majority (>50%) of Chinese FDI is routed
through tax havens
• Commercial data is flawed
– Many missing values
– Only captures acquisition investments >$1 million; greenfield
investments >$500,000
• Political risk data provide conflicting results
– Low corruption levels and high government accountability
maintain a positive relationship with Chinese FDI
– High government accountability generally maintains a negative
relationship with Chinese FDI
– Heritage Foundation data maintains a curvilinear relationship
with Chinese FDI
3. Non-Linear Relations
• How Chinese FDI is measured is important
– Chinese FDI data from MOFCOM are likely to yield non-significant results
regardless of political risk variable
• This is in line with findings from past studies
– Chinese FDI data which take ultimate investment destinations into account
(i.e. commercial data) are likely to yield positive and significant results (i.e.
Chinese FDI is drawn to locations with low political risk)
• How political risk is measured is important
– Heritage Foundation data are likely to yield positive significant results
regardless of Chinese FDI data source – but this relationship is curvilinear
– Political stability and rule of law variables are likely to yield non-significant
results regardless of Chinese FDI data source
– World Bank political risk data are more likely to yield positive significant
results than PRS data when using commercially available FDI data
– Corruption and regulatory quality proxies are likely to have a positive
relationship with Chinese FDI regardless of data source
• This relationship is positive and significant in the case of commercial FDI data
– Government accountability proxy is likely to have a negative relationship
with Chinese FDI
• This relationship is negative and significant in the case of MOFCOM data
4. Chinese Operational Difficulties Due to Inexperience
Karl Sauvant: Why Chinese Firms Have Difficulty in the
USA?
• How to navigate corridors of power in Washington
• Transparency both for its SOE sector and for privately-owned businesses
– Are China’s regulations and legal frameworks compatible with Chinese multinationals
operating in OECD economies?
• Dealing with institutional and cultural differences (subjective standards)
– How you do business, how you get permission to do certain things
– Established vs. evolving institutions
Source: Conversation between Karl Sauvant and Thilo Haneman quoted in Asia Times
Online, July 11, 2011.
5. Cost-Benefit of Chinese Investment
The Rise of Chinese Multinationals: A Strategic Threat or an Economic Opportunity
C Lattemann, I Alon, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 16 (1), 168-175
Questions and Answers

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China goes Global: Present Theories and Future Directions

  • 1. China goes Global: Present Theories and Future Directions Ilan Alon, Ph.D. Professor of Strategy and Int Marketing, UiA, Norway Editor, International Journal of Emerging Markets Editor, European Journal of International Management
  • 2. China Goes Global (2006-Present) www.chinagoesglobal.org
  • 3. Why Study Chinese FDI? • China is among the world’s largest investors • China’s OFDI growth is exponential – Chinese OFDI is small as a percentage of GDP – Chinese share of global investment position – OFDI is part of the Chinese policy of going global • Good testing ground for generalizability of FDI theories – Do Chinese investors follow the same pattern as their western counterparts? – Do the assumptions of OFDI theories hold for the Chinese?
  • 4. China OFDI Flows and Position
  • 5.
  • 6. Mercator’s Chinese OFDI Stock Projections
  • 7. Why are the Chinese interested in FDI? Mudambi (2017), JIBS
  • 8. Theories of Chinese/EM multinationals • Ravi Ramamurti • Marshall Meyer • Alan Rugman • Child & Marinova • Simon Collinson • Yadong Luo • Jean-Francois Hennart • Dunning and Lundan
  • 9. Ravi Ramamurti • Why Chinese firms internationalize, before having strong international competitive advantage (ex., Geely, Lenovo)? – Chinese do have a comparative advantage • Why Chinese internationalize in the «wrong way»? – Too fast, high equity, wrong countries – Not following the Uppsala model • Incremental internationalization
  • 10. Some Answers Different Investment Paradigm • External Environment – Global context of internationalization – Chinese investment is in mature industries – Assumption: strong political and institutional environment at home – Reality: Leverage home country advantage – Many “go out” to overcome domestic institutions • Internal Environment – Stage of evolution of EMM/China – Assumption: “Going out” to signal strength – Reality: Chinese companies buy competitive strengths – New business models, access to resources
  • 12.
  • 13. Rugman’s Review Alon, I., & McIntyre, J. R. (Eds.). (2008). Globalization of Chinese enterprises. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • 15. CSAs Land, labor, nat resources, climate, location EMNE Competitive Advantage GSAs Infrastructure, human capital business climate, industrial policy FSAs Brands, technology, distribution, oper. expertise, etc. Deconstructing Country Specific Advantages © Ravi Ramamurti, Presentation at China Goes Global Conference, Harvard U., Oct 2012 1Ramamurti, chapter 6 in Williamson, P, Ramamurti, R., Fleury A., and Fleury MT. (eds.) The Competitive Advantage of Emerging Market Multinationals. Cambridge University Press, 2013)
  • 16. Deconstruction the Political Economy John Child Theory Child, J., & Marinova, S. (2014). The Role of Contextual Combinations in the Globalization of Chinese Firms. 情境性组合在中国企业全球化中的作用. Management and Organization Review, 10(3), 347-371.
  • 18. Classifying Firms by Ownership and Organization Yadong Luo: Ownership-Diversification Matrix 中国国际企业/跨国公司的类型:所有权-多样化矩阵 World-stage Aspirant 世界舞台进取者 Transnational Agent 跨国代理 Niche Entrepreneur 小而精的创业者 Commissioned Specialist 委托专家 Non-state owned State owned 非国有的 国有的HInternationalDiversificationL 高 国 际 多 样 化 低
  • 19. A Critique of OLI JF Hennart: Theory of EMM Hennart, J. F. (2012). Emerging market multinationals and the theory of the multinational enterprise. Global Strategy Journal, 2(3), 168-187.
  • 20. Host Market Investment Motivations Dunning and Lundan
  • 21. Largest SOE Motivations for OFDI Alon, I., Wang, H., Shen, J., & Zhang, W. (2014). Chinese state-owned enterprises go global. Journal of Business Strategy, 35(6), 3-18.
  • 22. Vexing Research Questions 1. Boundary conditions for theoretical adaptation 2. Data problems and non-sensical results 3. Non-linear, non-Western relations 4. Operational difficulties and dynamic capabilities 5. Is China a strategic threat or opportunity?
  • 23. 1. Conditions for Theoretical Adaptation • When institutions matter (dometic or foreign or their interactions) • When government influence is relevant • When culture is relevant • When phenomena is indigenous Alon, Ilan, John Child, and Shaomin Li "Globalization of Chinese firms: Theoretical universalism or particularism." Management and Organization Review 7.2 (2011): 191-200.
  • 24. Boundary Conditions Vary • Chinese Firms Motivations Show Similarities – Alon, I., Leung, G. C. K., & Simpson, T. J. (2015). Outward Foreign Direct Investment by Chinese National Oil Companies. Journal of East-West Business, 21(4), 292-312. – Alon, I., Yeheskel, O., Lerner, M., & Zhang, W. (2013). Internationalization of Chinese entrepreneurial firms. Thunderbird International Business Review, 55(5), 495-512. • Corporate Governance, Local Institutions, and CSR Show Differences – Are Chinese CEOs Stewards or Agents? Revisiting the Agency– Stewardship Debate HW Hu, I Alon, Emerging Market Firms in the Global Economy, 255-277 – Financial marketization and corporate venturing in China: The impact of provincial-level institutions on the pharmaceutical sector, W Dai, I Alon, H Jiao, Journal of Entrepreneurship in Emerging Economies, 2015 – Li, S., Fetscherin, M., Alon, I., Lattemann, C., & Yeh, K. (2010). Corporate social responsibility in emerging markets. Management International Review, 50(5), 635-654.
  • 26. Example: Political Risk and Chinese Investment • MOFCOM data is flawed – Doesn’t take ultimate investment locations into account • This is a serious drawback: the majority (>50%) of Chinese FDI is routed through tax havens • Commercial data is flawed – Many missing values – Only captures acquisition investments >$1 million; greenfield investments >$500,000 • Political risk data provide conflicting results – Low corruption levels and high government accountability maintain a positive relationship with Chinese FDI – High government accountability generally maintains a negative relationship with Chinese FDI – Heritage Foundation data maintains a curvilinear relationship with Chinese FDI
  • 27. 3. Non-Linear Relations • How Chinese FDI is measured is important – Chinese FDI data from MOFCOM are likely to yield non-significant results regardless of political risk variable • This is in line with findings from past studies – Chinese FDI data which take ultimate investment destinations into account (i.e. commercial data) are likely to yield positive and significant results (i.e. Chinese FDI is drawn to locations with low political risk) • How political risk is measured is important – Heritage Foundation data are likely to yield positive significant results regardless of Chinese FDI data source – but this relationship is curvilinear – Political stability and rule of law variables are likely to yield non-significant results regardless of Chinese FDI data source – World Bank political risk data are more likely to yield positive significant results than PRS data when using commercially available FDI data – Corruption and regulatory quality proxies are likely to have a positive relationship with Chinese FDI regardless of data source • This relationship is positive and significant in the case of commercial FDI data – Government accountability proxy is likely to have a negative relationship with Chinese FDI • This relationship is negative and significant in the case of MOFCOM data
  • 28. 4. Chinese Operational Difficulties Due to Inexperience Karl Sauvant: Why Chinese Firms Have Difficulty in the USA? • How to navigate corridors of power in Washington • Transparency both for its SOE sector and for privately-owned businesses – Are China’s regulations and legal frameworks compatible with Chinese multinationals operating in OECD economies? • Dealing with institutional and cultural differences (subjective standards) – How you do business, how you get permission to do certain things – Established vs. evolving institutions Source: Conversation between Karl Sauvant and Thilo Haneman quoted in Asia Times Online, July 11, 2011.
  • 29. 5. Cost-Benefit of Chinese Investment The Rise of Chinese Multinationals: A Strategic Threat or an Economic Opportunity C Lattemann, I Alon, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 16 (1), 168-175

Editor's Notes

  1. Capital controls are likely to loosen
  2. Mudambi, 2007, JIBS Middle income trap
  3. 18
  4. Transaction cost economist Critical of OLI, the LLL frameworks
  5. Dunning, J. H., & Lundan, S. M. (2008). Multinational enterprises and the global economy. Edward Elgar Publishing.
  6. 40 Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Largest SOEs Survey Conducted during June – July of 2011 China Center at Rollins College Shanghai Jiaotong University, Euromed China Executive Leadership Academy at Pudong (CELAP)
  7. Firm competitiveness and resource based theories may apply, augmented by institutional theory
  8. Buckley and his colleagues (2007) and other found political risk to encourages FDI from China (inconsistent with theory and survey data) Non-industrialized perverse attitude to risk (non-profit maximizing behaviors) Capital market imperfections and institutions specific to China Political affiliations and connections bargaining position of the Chinese Ideological heritage towards developing countries Country embedded knowledge of political risk management