Christine Voiron-Canicio on "The Geoprospective Approach"

1. The Geoprospective Approach
Christine Voiron - Canicio
ESPACE – Université de Nice / CNRS
Christine Voiron-Canicio – UMR 7300 ESPACE – équipe de Nice

2. “Geoprospective” research project of CNRS –
GDR MAGIS (Method and Application
for Geomatics and Spatial Information)
Outline
1. From prospective to geoprospective
2. Methodologies and models
3. Discussion and perspectives
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

3. 1. From Prospective to Geoprospective
Prospective for planning
Prospective / Foresight
Top-down foresight
Bottom-up prospective
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

4. Territorial prospective
• at the national level: DATAR
• at the local level: Regions,
• Both prospectives fall into the class of Strategic or normative prospectives.
• Focus group narrative methods scenarii : images of the future
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

5. Spatial forecast or spatial prospective
• Beside this normative prospective, there is a
prospective of knowledge aimed at investigating
the future through the use of scientific methods
(Mermet 2005, Loinger 2006).
• The spatial forecast appraoch is connected with it
(Casanova 2010).
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

6. Spatial forecast or spatial prospective
• The aim of the spatial forecast is determining the
sensitivity of a territory to changes, by using spatio-
temporal analysis:
– Spatial dynamics : trajectories
– Emerging trends in its trajectory (weak signals),
– Resources
– Constraints (choices are not entirely free, but
multiconstrained, especially according to higher level
interactions)
– degree of freedom for planning
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

7. Geoprospective
Definition:
• Geoprospective aims at anticipating the plausible
futures of territories, rather at large scale:
- using methods which take into account the spatial
dynamics through models,
- performing simulations and spatialising scenarii of
evolution,
- working interactively with groups of actors
concerned by the problem to be solved.
In the Geoprospective process what matters is not so much
the event generating the change that how the space will
react to this event.
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

8. Geoprospective
• Geoprospective was
created by researchers
working in spatial
modelling or
environmental
modelling,
• so, three branches exist
: territorial prospective
and environmental
prospective, and spatial
forecast linked to
geoprospective.
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

9. 2. Methodologies and models
• Nowadays, the geoprospective approach is not still
formalised.
• Each branch keeps using its methods and tools.
• For example, in environmental prospective, the
spatialised scenarii are based on a 3 steps process : 1)
building a knowledge basis, 2) choosing prospective
scenarii and performing spatially explicit simulations, 3)
validating outputs dealing with actors.
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

10. Methodologies and models
• The role devoted to space is varying
according to the goal of the modelling:
• Spatially explicit
modelling (CA, MSA,
spatio-morphological
model) : to project
land-use change
(Houet, Hubert-Moy,
Cheylan, Lajoie)
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

11. Methodologies and models
• The role devoted to space is varying
according to the goal of the modelling:
• Graphic modelling, to
draw spatial dynamics
in order to confront the
multiple points of view
on a question and to
generate debate about
future changes
(Lardon & Piveteau
2008)
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

12. Methodologies and models
• The role devoted to space is varying
according to the goal of the modelling:
• Participatory modelling : Companion modelling.
Spatial modelling is considered as a mediator to
understand perceptions and behaviors of actors
(Bécu 2006, Etienne 2011) :
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

13. Methodologies and models
• The role devoted to space is varying
according to the goal of the modelling:
• Anticipating the change
by crossing objective
data and subjective
knowledge about space
(its value, its stakes)
• Ex. Reactivity to change
indicator
(Loubier, Voiron-Canicio)
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

14. 3. Discussion and perspectives
Summary :
• The goal of Geoprospective is anticipating, by
simulations, the plausible spatial changes of territorial
systems; focusing on spatial change but always taking
into account the role of the various actors (present and
future), their adaptability.
• Geoprospective differs from geomatics or spatial
modelling ; both are tools used in some parts of the
process.
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

15. Discussion and perspectives
Geoprospective deals with complex systems
Change
Internal and external
Social system
Spatial system
behaviors
Filters
Spatial structures
mental
practices
representations
trajectories resources
adaptability
Constraints, path dependence
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

16. Discussion and perspectives
The challenge is fourfold :
i) Better integrating the role of space and the role of actors
at each step of the prospective process, their interaction
and retroaction,
ii) Integrating the multi-scale factors of land cover
evolution,
iii) Better linking quantitative and qualitative data into the
spatial models
iv) co-building simulations with actors and communicating
results not only towards decision makers but also
towards civil society.
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron

17. Thank you
U.M.R. 6012 ESPACE
C. Voiron