This document summarizes a research paper on spatial comparisons of multidimensional poverty inequality in Malawi. It provides an outline of the paper including an introduction discussing Malawi's high levels of poverty. It describes the data and methods used from Demographic and Health Surveys. Key findings are that 50.7% of the population is poor, with a Gini coefficient of 0.452, and stunting affects 47.1% of children under 5. Poverty and inequality are higher in rural versus urban areas and across regions of the country.

1. Spatial comparisons of multidimensional poverty inequality in Malawi
By
Anderson Gondwe
PhD Economics Student
Stellenbosch University
——Discussion Paper: ECAMA, Lilongwe——
1
10 October 2014

2. b
• Introduction & background
• Data & methods
• Poverty & inequality estimates
• Econometric results
2
• Pro-poor growth analysis
OUTLINE

3. Introduction
3

4. 1. Malawi is a very poor country both by regional and international standards
2. The poverty is in many dimensions
3. Little progress at 50 years of independence (6th July 2014)
IHS3(2012) and DHS(2010)
1. 85% of pop in agriculture
2. Agric labour participation: 88%
3. 74% of pop no education
4. 21% never attended school
5. Literacy rate at 65% (>=15yrs)
1. 50.7% poor
2. Gini of 0.452 (previous 0.392)
3. Asset (PCA): quintile 5
-Urban=66.3%
-Rural=11.3%
4. Stunting(children <5yrs ): 47.1%
4

5. Research gaps
5

6. Research on multidimensional poverty on the frontier
Following the works of Sen (1985, 1987)
Booysen, F. et al (2008) excluded Malawi
Asset index not applied to Malawi
Previous related research in Malawi
Chirwa(2006), Mussa(2011), Gondwe (2011)
This study
Use of asset index, pro-poor analysis, different data
Research
gaps
filled
6

7. Sex of household head:- Male (76%), female head (24%)
Areas:-Urban (16%), Rural (84%)
Regions:-Northern (12%), Central (43%) and Southern Region (45%)
Across
7
Population groups

8. Data and methods
8

9. Data (1)
DHS 2004DHS 1992 DHS 2000
Household data set:
24,825 households
Men’s data set:
15-54 years
Women’s data set:
15-49 years
Children’s data set:
4,801 (0-59 months of age)
DHS 2010
9

10. Data summary
10
Year Survey period No. h/holds No. of children
1992 September-November 1992 5,323 3,353
2000 July-November 2000 14,213 9,753
2004 October 2004 -January 2005 13,664 8,707
2010 June-November 2010 24,825 4,801
Nationally representative data sets

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12. Child nutritional status
Height for age (HAZ)
Weight for age (WAZ)
Weight for height
(WHZ)
Based on WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study (WHO, 2006)
8,440 healthy infants & children drawn from six countries across the world
(1997-2003: Brazil, Ghana, India, Norway, Oman and USA)
1. Stunting
2. Long term
1. Body wasting
2. Current status
1. Underweight
2. Acute & chronic

13. 13
0
.1.2.3.4
Density
-6 -3.6 -1.2 1.2 3.6 6
Anthropometric Z-scores
HAZ WAZ
WHZ
Kernel density plots of anthropometric Z-scores for Malawi

14. Description HAZ WAZ WHZ
Age (months)
% below
-2SD
% below
-3SD
% below
-2SD
% below
-3SD
% below
2SD
% below
-3SD
0-23 38.77 18.31 13.56 3.68 6.41 2.55
24-59 50.84 19.79 13.95 3.37 2.34 0.80
Sex
Male 49.31 22.22 14.80 3.17 4.41 1.81
Female 42.26 16.25 12.81 3.82 3.76 1.30
Residence
Urban 39.72 15.39 11.57 3.14 2.35 0.58
Rural 46.74 19.82 14.17 3.57 4.38 1.72
Region
Northern 42.83 18.32 12.80 2.46 2.65 0.49
Central 45.58 18.51 14.27 4.03 4.43 1.83
Southern 46.54 20.07 13.50 3.19 4.06 1.52
Malawi
Rate 45.69 19.16 13.78 3.50 4.08 1.55

15. Poverty and inequality estimates
15

16. 16
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Anthropometric z-scores
HAZ WAZ
WHZ
Cumulative density curves for anthropometric z-scores

17. 17
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age z-scores
urban rural
Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores

18. 18
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age z-scores
northern central
southern
Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores

19. 19
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age z-scores
male female
Cumulative density curves for height-for-age z-scores

20. Measure
Description α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2
Urban area 40.8% 31.0% 26.4% 10.5% 6.7% 5.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 7.2% 2.4% 1.1%
Rural area 48.3% 38.0% 33.2% 13.7% 8.7% 7.0% 4.6% 3.3% 2.8% 53.3% 20.3% 10.1%
Northern region 44.8% 34.6% 30.0% 11.8% 6.8% 5.2% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 32.4% 11.0% 5.1%
Central region 47.2% 37.2% 32.3% 13.5% 9.0% 7.2% 4.5% 3.4% 2.9% 51.3% 20.6% 10.6%
Southern region 47.6% 37.3% 32.6% 13.2% 8.3% 6.5% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 44.5% 16.2% 7.7%
Rural north 44.9% 35.0% 30.5% 12.9% 7.3% 5.6% 3.1% 1.6% 1.1% 34.5% 11.8% 5.5%
Rural centre 48.1% 38.0% 33.1% 13.8% 9.1% 7.3% 4.8% 3.6% 3.2% 59.4% 24.0% 12.3%
Rural south 49.3% 38.9% 34.1% 13.8% 8.7% 6.9% 4.7% 3.3% 2.8% 52.9% 19.3% 9.2%
Urban north 43.8% 32.0% 26.0% 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 8.6% 2.0% 0.7%
Urban centre 42.1% 32.4% 27.7% 12.3% 8.4% 6.6% 2.9% 2.1% 1.6% 9.2% 3.1% 1.5%
Urban south 39.2% 29.5% 25.3% 10.0% 5.9% 4.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.6% 5.3% 1.8% 0.8%
Male head 47.1% 36.8% 32.1% 12.9% 8.4% 6.7% 4.3% 3.0% 2.6% 41.7% 14.8% 6.9%
Female head 47.6% 38.5% 34.0% 17.0% 9.3% 6.8% 4.1% 3.2% 2.7% 59.1% 25.8% 13.9%
Malawi 47.1% 37.0% 32.2% 13.2% 8.4% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.6% 46.0% 17.5% 8.6%
HAZ WAZ WHZ Assetindex
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21. 21
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Cumulative proportion of children
45° line Population
urban rural
Lorenz curves by area of residence

22. 22
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Cumulative proportion of children
45° line Population
northern central
southern
Lorenz curves by regions

23. 23
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Cumulative proportion of children
45° line Population
male female
Lorenz curves by sex of household head

24. Gini & Generalized Entropy (GE) inequality estimates
Measure
Description HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset HAZ WAZ WHZ Asset
Urban area 0.683 0.461 0.281 0.326 2.165 0.756 0.279 0.205 0.852 0.364 0.149 0.170
Rural area 0.744 0.521 0.313 0.397 2.563 0.889 0.429 0.261 1.058 0.459 0.186 0.267
Northern region 0.733 0.502 0.290 0.376 2.416 0.787 0.292 0.244 1.018 0.424 0.159 0.230
Central region 0.734 0.513 0.306 0.457 2.547 0.918 0.430 0.353 1.021 0.447 0.181 0.356
Southern region 0.736 0.513 0.314 0.462 2.481 0.840 0.408 0.362 1.029 0.445 0.186 0.361
Rural north 0.739 0.512 0.300 0.361 2.487 0.794 0.310 0.225 1.040 0.441 0.168 0.210
Rural centre 0.742 0.519 0.309 0.394 2.608 0.943 0.450 0.257 1.051 0.457 0.183 0.265
Rural south 0.747 0.523 0.321 0.397 2.532 0.851 0.437 0.259 1.070 0.462 0.194 0.272
Urban north 0.680 0.413 0.197 0.337 1.811 0.691 0.116 0.200 0.845 0.282 0.075 0.180
Urban centre 0.681 0.475 0.292 0.338 2.189 0.768 0.316 0.220 0.850 0.390 0.166 0.182
Urban south 0.678 0.454 0.281 0.308 2.182 0.752 0.268 0.184 0.842 0.353 0.145 0.152
Male head 0.734 0.512 0.308 0.441 2.502 0.872 0.402 0.327 1.022 0.443 0.180 0.325
Female head 0.741 0.519 0.313 0.478 2.528 0.856 0.453 0.385 1.048 0.459 0.186 0.400
Malawi 0.735 0.513 0.308 0.453 2.505 0.871 0.406 0.348 1.024 0.444 0.181 0.346
Gini Theil L(theta=0) Theil T(theta=1)
24

25. 25
Poverty mapping
Inequality mapping

26. Description FGTindex α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2 α=0 α=1 α=2
Sub-group Pop. share % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont. % cont.
Urban area 0.150 0.130 0.126 0.124 0.126 0.129 0.126 0.086 0.088 0.084
Rural area 0.850 0.870 0.874 0.876 0.874 0.871 0.874 0.914 0.912 0.916
Northern region 0.107 0.100 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.094 0.094 0.071 0.051 0.043
Central region 0.464 0.463 0.465 0.464 0.478 0.489 0.491 0.496 0.523 0.530
Southern region 0.429 0.437 0.437 0.438 0.423 0.417 0.415 0.433 0.427 0.427
Rural north 0.096 0.090 0.089 0.089 0.097 0.091 0.090 0.069 0.048 0.041
Rural centre 0.396 0.402 0.405 0.405 0.413 0.422 0.427 0.451 0.478 0.491
Rural south 0.358 0.377 0.380 0.382 0.364 0.358 0.358 0.394 0.385 0.384
Urban north 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.002
Urban centre 0.067 0.060 0.059 0.058 0.064 0.066 0.064 0.045 0.045 0.039
Urban south 0.072 0.060 0.057 0.056 0.059 0.059 0.057 0.039 0.041 0.043
Male head 0.919 0.919 0.916 0.915 0.900 0.914 0.919 0.916 0.906 0.904
Female head 0.081 0.081 0.084 0.085 0.100 0.086 0.081 0.084 0.094 0.096
Population 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
HAZ WAZ WHZNutritional status indicator
26

27. OLS results
27

28. 28
Variables HAZ SE WAZ SE WHZ SE
Age in months -0.085*** (0.006) -0.039*** (0.004) 0.004 (0.005)
Square of age 0.114*** (0.010) 0.044*** (0.007) -0.004 (0.008)
Female child 0.248*** (0.047) 0.071* (0.034) -0.068 (0.040)
Child is twin -0.832*** (0.122) -0.789*** (0.086) -0.202* (0.103)
Birth order number 0.018 (0.012) 0.025** (0.009) 0.023* (0.010)
Mother's education
Incomplete primary 0.086 (0.073) 0.153** (0.050) 0.128* (0.058)
Complete primary 0.178 (0.101) 0.176* (0.070) 0.15 (0.088)
Incomplete secondary 0.320** (0.109) 0.275*** (0.076) 0.1 (0.088)
Complete secondary 0.223 (0.148) 0.311** (0.105) 0.330** (0.126)
Post secondary 0.946* (0.421) 0.624* (0.264) 0.164 (0.397)
Father's education
Incomplete primary -0.005 (0.092) -0.148* (0.063) -0.092 (0.073)
Complete primary -0.102 (0.118) -0.15 (0.084) 0.004 (0.096)
Incomplete secondary 0.009 (0.104) -0.092 (0.074) -0.052 (0.085)
Post secondary 0.092 (0.229) -0.12 (0.129) -0.212 (0.181)
Asset index 0.217*** (0.046) 0.179*** (0.033) -0.004 (0.039)
Square of asset index -0.028* (0.012) -0.018* (0.008) 0.013 (0.011)
Constant -1.048*** (0.167) -0.324** (0.115) 0.199 (0.138)
R-squared 0.084 0.070 0.002
Prob > F 0.000 0.000 0.034
N 4,574 4,700 4,531
*p<0.05,**p<0.01, ***p<0.001

29. 29

30. 30
0
.2.4.6.8
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height for age z-scores(HAZ)
1992 2000
2004 2010
Poverty incidence curves for HAZ by survey year

31. 31
1. Positive growth
2. Absolute pro-poor growth
3. Relative and pro-poor growth
0
.02.04.06.08
.1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Height-for-age scores
Confidence interval (95 %) Estimated difference
1992 minus 2010:first order
Absolute pro-poor growth in height-for-age scores

32. 32
Asset index Estimate Std. Err. t P>|t| Pov. line
1992 0.795 0.006 143.76 0.000 0.784 0.806 0.807
2000 0.805 0.003 242.46 0.000 0.799 0.812 0.807
Difference 0.01 0.006 1.56 0.118 -0.003 0.023 ---
2000 0.805 0.003 242.46 0.000 0.799 0.812 0.807
2004 0.785 0.004 223.15 0.000 0.778 0.792 0.807
Difference -0.021 0.005 -4.26 0.000 -0.03 -0.011 ---
2004 0.785 0.004 223.15 0.000 0.778 0.792 0.807
2010 0.5 0.007 70.05 0.000 0.486 0.514 0.807
Difference -0.284 0.008 -35.73 0.000 -0.3 -0.269 ---
1992 0.795 0.006 143.76 0.000 0.784 0.806 0.807
2010 0.5 0.007 70.05 0.000 0.486 0.514 0.807
Difference -0.295 0.009 -32.65 0.000 -0.313 -0.277 ---
[95% Conf. interval]

33. 33

34. Questions & contributions
34