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ICIC 2016: Examining Funding Data to Predict the Future of Research

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Recent years have seen an explosion of data and metrics available to examine new findings in research and the people behind them. As these are based on research outputs (especially publications) the information available can only ever indicate advances in the recent past. Even with the advent of preprints and out-of-publication data sharing, a full understanding of research direction is not available unless the inputs into the research environment are considered. By examining research funding, a forward-looking approach can be taken to actively examine what is going to happen in the future, and use this as a basis for strategic planning.

Data on which researchers have been funded, by which funding institutions and to do what research, provides the best basis with which to analyse future research trends. What will be the big topics in the next 5 years? Which direction are the big players in the field going? These types of questions can only be answered by analysing grant funding. Funding information provides a unique insight into aspirations within the research community, and these types of questions can only be fully addressed by analysing research inputs rather than outputs.

Combining and linking funding data with other “traditional” data sources enables a more complete overview which can then be used to inform predictive studies and trend analysis, ultimately producing a better understanding of the entire research landscape now and in the future.

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ICIC 2016: Examining Funding Data to Predict the Future of Research

  1. 1. Examining Funding Data to Predict the Future of Research Dr. Tom Lickiss
  2. 2. A portfolio company of Overview • Introduction to ÜberResearch • The Research Timeline • Aggregating and Exploring Research Funding data • Staying at the Cutting Edge, and Predicting the Future • Integrating data sources - moving towards the complete picture
  3. 3. A portfolio company of
  4. 4. A portfolio company of A team of developers, scientists and experts with more than 10 years experience delivering solutions and services for funding and research institutions.
  5. 5. A portfolio company of A team of developers, scientists and experts with more than 10 years experience delivering solutions and services for funding and research institutions. Portfolio company of Digital Science, the younger sibling of the Nature Publishing group.
  6. 6. A portfolio company of The Research Timeline
  7. 7. A portfolio company of From Idea to Impact (Inputs and Outputs) Idea Citations Publications and Patents
  8. 8. A portfolio company of Idea Grant Application Grant Awarded Conference Publications and Patents Citations From Idea to Impact (Inputs and Outputs)
  9. 9. A portfolio company of 1 – 5 years 2 – 3 years Idea Grant Application Grant Awarded Conference Citations 3 - 8 years of relative darkness From Idea to Impact (Inputs and Outputs) Publications and Patents
  10. 10. A portfolio company of 1 – 5 years 2 – 3 years Idea Grant Application Grant Awarded Conference Citations Publications and citations are very useful to tell you what has happened. Grants tell you what is happening and what will happen. 3 - 8 years of relative darkness From Idea to Impact (Inputs and Outputs) Publications and Patents
  11. 11. A portfolio company of The Research Landscape What does research funding look like?
  12. 12. A portfolio company of What does research funding look like? The Research Landscape
  13. 13. A portfolio company of What does research funding look like? The Research Landscape
  14. 14. A portfolio company of What does research funding look like? We help the research and funding communities understand what is going on in research globally, and how they are involved in it. The Research Landscape
  15. 15. A portfolio company of Aggregating and Exploring Research Funding data
  16. 16. A portfolio company of
  17. 17. A portfolio company of Millions of Projects, at over a trillion US Dollars, from hundreds of research funders around the World. We collect, clean, and disambiguate data from hundreds of sources in order to develop a body of data that can be instantly functional.
  18. 18. A portfolio company of Grants Publications Content Consolidation NLP Disambiguation Document Matching The Data Principle
  19. 19. A portfolio company of Grants Publications Person and institution disambiguation Internal Data The Data Principle
  20. 20. A portfolio company of Grants Publications Person and institution disambiguation Internal Data The Data Principle Grants Publications Person and institution disambiguation Internal Data
  21. 21. A portfolio company of Grants Publications Person and institution disambiguation Internal Data Content Consolidation NLP Document Matching The Data Principle Grants Publications Person and institution disambiguation Internal Data Machine Learning
  22. 22. A portfolio company of Grants Publications Person and institution disambiguation Internal Data Content Consolidation NLP Document Matching The Data Principle Grants Publications Person and institution disambiguation Internal Data Search Trend Analysis Portfolio Analysis / Comparison ÜberWizard for ORCID Machine Learning This approach then gives us the ability to interrogate the data in any desired way.
  23. 23. A portfolio company of Comparisons and Trends See topic trends over time
  24. 24. A portfolio company of Comparisons and Trends See topic trends over time Who are the main funders?
  25. 25. A portfolio company of Comparisons and Trends See topic trends over time Who are the main funders? Which Institutions are receiving the funding?
  26. 26. A portfolio company of Landscape Analysis – Brexit! With the data disambiguated and searchable by any parameter, landscape analysis is extremely simple. A report on the potential effects of Brexit, before the vote, became a major source of predictive information after it.
  27. 27. A portfolio company of
  28. 28. Availability of information is now helping institutions predict how Brexit might affect them.
  29. 29. Availability of information is now helping institutions predict how Brexit might affect them.
  30. 30. A portfolio company of Using Research Funding to Look into the Future
  31. 31. A portfolio company of Looking into the Future Approximately 10% of our data details either on- going projects, or projects which have not yet started. This means the nature of the data itself is forward-looking, and it will be the first place where new trends in research will be evidenced. Importantly, it is also a different type of information. It is describing what is intended, rather than what has already happened.
  32. 32. A portfolio company of A Topic Example - Optogenetics The science of using light to control the electrical activity of neural cells or to use light as an indicator of neural activity. This is commonly done using proteins introduced using genetic techniques.
  33. 33. A portfolio company of Optogenetics Papers Oct. 2006 – First paper published using the word optogenetic (with Miesenböck as one author). Funded Projects Sept. 2003 – NIDA funds a project by Gero Miesenböck entitled “Genetically Encoded Phototriggers of Neuronal Activity”. Nov. 2007 – First funded project in the Dimensions database which contains the word optogenetic – from the BBSRC in the UK. The appearance of the key optogenetic protein “channelrhodopsin” in funded projects and publications over time. If only the publications could be seen, would this give the same impression?
  34. 34. A portfolio company of Optopatch Timeline of Key Events Papers Funded Projects A continuation of optogenetics enabling complete activation and recording from electrical cells using only light and recording with super high frame per second speeds. April 2014 – NINDS funds project for Optopatch starting in April 2014 to finish March 2016. June 2014 – Hochbaum et al. publish Optopatch method in Nature Methods (online version).
  35. 35. A portfolio company of Optopatch Timeline of Key Events Papers Funded Projects A continuation of optogenetics enabling complete activation and recording from electrical cells using only light and recording with super high frame per second speeds. April 2014 – NINDS funds project for Optopatch starting in April 2014 to finish March 2016. June 2014 – Hochbaum et al. publish Optopatch method in Nature Methods (online version). Nov. 2014 – NHLBI funds project for same group for applying the technology to heart cells assay for cardiotoxicity testing. No further papers yet published on this topic. ?
  36. 36. A portfolio company of Brainbow A method to cause cells to become fluorescent in many different colours so that their shapes and connections to other cells can be more easily examined. Weissman, Lichtman and Sanes, 2007.
  37. 37. A portfolio company of Brainbow Timeline of Key Events Papers Funded Projects Nov. 2007 - Original technical Brainbow paper published by Livet et al.
  38. 38. A portfolio company of Brainbow Timeline of Key Events Papers Funded Projects Nov. 2007 - Original technical Brainbow paper published by Livet et al. 2008 – Three grants awarded including the word “Brainbow”. Two from NIMH and NINDS to the original Brainbow group at Harvard, and a third from The Royal Society to work at UCL in UK
  39. 39. A portfolio company of Brainbow Timeline of Key Events Papers Funded Projects Nov. 2007 - Original technical Brainbow paper published by Livet et al. 2008 – Three grants awarded including the word “Brainbow”. Two from NIMH and NINDS to the original Brainbow group at Harvard, and a third from The Royal Society to work at UCL in UKNov. 2009 - First primary research paper published using Brainbow technology. 2011 - Eleven papers published based on Brainbow technology.
  40. 40. A portfolio company of Brainbow Timeline of Key Events Papers Funded Projects Nov. 2007 - Original technical Brainbow paper published by Livet et al. 2008 – Three grants awarded including the word “Brainbow”. Two from NIMH and NINDS to the original Brainbow group at Harvard, and a third from The Royal Society to work at UCL in UKNov. 2009 - First primary research paper published using Brainbow technology. 2009 – NINDS award grant to the Sanes Lab for the development of the “Next Generation of Brainbow Transgenes for Neural Circuit Analysis”. This was one of five grants including the word “Brainbow” from 2009. 2011 - Eleven papers published based on Brainbow technology.
  41. 41. A portfolio company of Brainbow Timeline of Key Events Papers Funded Projects Nov. 2007 - Original technical Brainbow paper published by Livet et al. 2008 – Three grants awarded including the word “Brainbow”. Two from NIMH and NINDS to the original Brainbow group at Harvard, and a third from The Royal Society to work at UCL in UKNov. 2009 - First primary research paper published using Brainbow technology. 2009 – NINDS award grant to the Sanes Lab for the development of the “Next Generation of Brainbow Transgenes for Neural Circuit Analysis”. This was one of five grants including the word “Brainbow” from 2009. June 2013 - Sanes Lab publishes “Improved tools for the Brainbow toolbox” paper in Nature Methods – relating to work funded 2011 - Eleven papers published based on Brainbow technology.
  42. 42. A portfolio company of “siRNA” Comparing Trends in Data Technologies or research areas which are reducing in size can be seen as a drop in funding before a potential drop in publications – and new technologies can be seen to rise.
  43. 43. A portfolio company of Comparing Trends in Data Technologies or research areas which are reducing in size can be seen as a drop in funding before a potential drop in publications – and new technologies can be seen to rise. “siRNA” “CRISPR”
  44. 44. A portfolio company of Confirming Expectations, or Making Discoveries? Zika Virus Funding in the last 10 years
  45. 45. A portfolio company of Confirming Expectations, or Making Discoveries? Zika Virus Funding in the last 10 years Of course, with these examples you need to know what to look for. However, using Natural Language Processing and analysis of key term frequencies, we are now starting to do automatic identification of new trends.
  46. 46. A portfolio company of Integrating data sources - moving towards a more complete picture
  47. 47. Patents & Patent Applications Publications Grants Data Clinical Trials Other databases Platform Data Researcher Activities Institutional Structure Grant Applications University Data Progress Reports Grant Applications Funder Data Base Data Enrichment Processes Enriched Data Funding data as part of the bigger picture
  48. 48. Reference Extraction Categorization Organization Extraction Researcher Disambiguation Patents & Patent Applications Publications Grants Data Clinical Trials Other databases Platform Data Researcher Activities Institutional Structure Grant Applications University Data Progress Reports Grant Applications Funder Data Concept Extraction Base Data Enrichment Processes Enriched Data Funding data as part of the bigger picture
  49. 49. Reference Extraction Categorization Organization Extraction Researcher Disambiguation Patents & Patent Applications Concepts Publications Grants Data Clinical Trials Other databases Platform Data Researcher Activities Institutional Structure Grant Applications University Data Progress Reports Grant Applications Funder Data Researchers Organizations Classifications References Metrics Concept Extraction Base Data Enrichment Processes Enriched Data Funding data as part of the bigger picture
  50. 50. A portfolio company of The Complete Picture Funded Research Project Research Undertaken Patents and Publications Citations, awareness in the field New applications for funding Funding is of course only one piece of the puzzle – but an important piece! Funded Research Projects are the last major piece of the research process puzzle, but when used effectively can be hugely informative about the direction of things to come.
  51. 51. Thank you tom@uberresearch.com www.uberresearch.com

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