Confounding from population structure, extended families and inbreeding can be a significant issue for burden and kernel association tests on rare variants from next generation DNA sequencing. An obvious solution is to combine the power of a mixed model regression analysis with the ability to assess the rare variant burden using methods such as KBAC or CMC. Recent approaches have adjusted burden and kernel tests using linear regression models; this method adjusts for the relatedness of samples and includes that directly into a logistic regression model. This webcast will focus on the details of bringing Mixed Model Regression and KBAC together, including: deriving an optimal logistic mixed model algorithm for calculating the reduced model score, how the kinship or random effects matrix should be specified, and how it all comes together into one algorithm. Results from applying the method to variants from the 1000 Genomes project will also be presented and compared to famSKAT.

1. MM-KBAC: Using mixed
models to adjust for
population structure in a
rare-variant burden test
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Greta Linse Peterson
Director of Product Management and Quality

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5. Timeline
Complex Disease
GWAS
Rare Variant
Methods
Mixed Model
Methods
MMKBAC
Technology

6. Study Design
 Large cohort population based design (cases with matched controls
or quantitative phenotypes and complex traits)
- Assumes: independent and well matched samples
- Can interrogate complex traits
 Small families (trios, quads, small extended pedigrees)
- Can only analyze a single family at a time, looking for de Novo, recessive or
compound het variants unique to an affected sample in a single family
- Looking for highly penetrant variants

7. What If????
 What if we have:
- Known population structure
- Cannot guarantee independence between samples
- Controls were borrowed from a different study
- Multiple families with affected offspring all exhibiting the same phenotype
- Multiple large extended pedigrees of unknown structure

8. Just Add Random Effects!
 Why can’t we just add random effects to our regression models for
our rare-variant burden testing algorithms?
 Existing mixed model algorithms assume a linear model
 Kernel-based adaptive clustering (KBAC) uses a logistic regression
model
 Hmm what to do….?

9. WARNING!
What is about to follow are formulas and statistics, specifically matrix
algebra…
But don’t worry we’ll end the webcast with a presentation of some
preliminary results! So hang in there!

10. But first….
The dataset we have chosen for today is the 1000 Genomes Pilot 3
Exons dataset with a simulated phenotype.

11. Relatedness of samples

12. Why Mixed Models + KBAC?
 OK Mixed Models makes sense, but why KBAC?
 KBAC was chosen as our proof of concept rare-variant burden test
for complex traits
 KBAC uses a score test which is trivial to calculate once you
compute the reduced model
 Mixed models can be added to other burden and kernel tests using
the same principles

13. What is KBAC?
 KBAC = Kernel-based Adaptive
Clustering
 Catalogs and counts multi-marker
genotypes based on variant data
 Assumes the data has been filtered to
only rare variants
 Performs a special case/control test
based on the counts of variants per
region (aka gene)
 Test is weighted based on how often each
genotype is expected to occur according
to the null hypothesis
 Genotypes with higher sample risks are
given higher weights
 One-sided test primarily, which means it
detects higher sample risks

14. Pictorial Overview of Theory

15. Filter Common/Known SNPs

16. Filter by Gene Membership

17. Rare Sequence Variants

18. KBAC Statistic
푘 푁푖
 퐾퐵퐴퐶1 = 푖=1
퐴
푁퐴 −
푁푈
푖
퐾푁푈 푖
0 푅 푖
 Where the weight is defined as:
0 푅 푖 =
푤푖 = 퐾푖
푅 푖
푘푖
0
0 푟 푑푟
The weight can be calculated as a:
- Hyper-geometric kernel
- Marginal binomial kernel
- Asymptotic normal kernel

19. Determining the KBAC p-value
 Monte-Carlo Method is used as an approximation for finding the p-value
퐴for each genotype 퐺푖 approximates a
 The number of cases 푛푖
퐴~ 퐵푖푛표푚 푛푖 ,
binomial distribution 푛푖
푛퐴
푛
 The case status is permuted among all samples. The covariates and
genotypes are held fixed.

20. Logistic Mixed Model Equation
log
푃 푌푗 = 1 | 푋푗 , 푋푓푗푙 , 푢푗
1 − 푃 푌푗 = 1 | 푋푗 , 푋푓푗푙 , 푢푗
= 훽0 + 훽1푋푗 +
푙
훽푓푙푋푓푗푙 + 푢푗
Null hypothesis: 퐻0: 훽1 = 0
The score statistic to test the null of the independence of the model
from 푋푗 is:
푈 = 푗 푋푗 푌푗 − 휇푗 , where
휇푗 = ℎ 휂푗 =
푒
휂푗
1+푒
휂푗, and
휂푗 = 훽0 + 푙 훽푓푙푋푓푗푙 + 푢푗, and
푢푗 is the random effect for the 푗^(푡ℎ) sample.

21. Logistic (Reduced) Mixed Model Equation
log
푃 푌푗 = 1 | 푋푓푗푙 , 푢푗
1 − 푃 푌푗 = 1 | 푋푓푗푙 , 푢푗
= 훽0 +
푙
훽푓푙푋푓푗푙 + 푢푗
Which can be rewritten as:
퐸 푌 푢 = ℎ 푋푓훽 + 푢 = ℎ 휂 = 휇
And
푉푎푟 푌 푢 = 퐴 = 퐴1
2퐴 1
2
Where 퐴 is the variance of the binomial distribution itself, where
퐴푗푗 = 휇푗 1 − 휇푗 푓표푟 푗 = 1. . 푛
퐴푖푗 = 0 푓표푟 푖 ≠ 푗
And the linear predictor for the model is 휂 = 푋훽 + 푢
While ℎ ∎ is the inverse link function for the model

22. Solving the Logistic Mixed Model
Iterate between creating a linear pseudo-model and solving for the
pseudo-model’s coefficients
ℎ 휂 = ℎ 휂 + Δ 푋 훽 − 훽 + Δ (푢 − 푢 )
Where
Δ =
휕ℎ 휂
휕휂 훽, 푢
Rearranging yields
Δ −1 휇 − ℎ 휂 + 푋훽 + 푢 = 푋훽 + 푢
The left side is the expected value, conditional on 푢, of
푃 ≡ Δ −1 푌 − ℎ 휂 + 푋훽 + 푢
The variance of 푃 given 푢 is
푉푎푟 푃 푢 = Δ −1퐴 1
2퐴 1
2 Δ−1
Where
퐴 푗푗 = 휇 푗 1 − 휇 푗 , 퐴 푖푗 = 0 (푓표푟 푖 ≠ 푗)

23. Transform Pseudo-Model to use EMMA
Pseudo-model: 푃 = 푋훽 + 푢 + 휖 and 푉푎푟 휖 = 푉푎푟 푃 푢
NOTE: As an alternative, rather than using the prediction of 푢 from the pseudo-model,
we can use the expected value of 푢, which is zero
Want to solve using EMMA (Kang 2008)
Find 푇 such that 푉푎푟 푇휖 = 퐼
So that we can write
푇푃 = 푇푋훽 + 푇푢 + 푇휖
And use EMMA to solve the mixed model
푇푃 = 푇푋훽 + 푇푢 + 휖∗
Where the variance of 휖∗is proportional to 퐼
It can be shown that this is solved by letting
푇 = 퐴 − 1
2 Δ

24. Summary of the Algorithm
First pick starting values of 훽 and 푢 , such as all zeros. Repeat the following
steps until the changes in 훽 and 푢 are sufficiently small:
1. Find 휂 and 휇 from the original linear predictor equation and the definition
of ℎ ∎
2. Find the (diagonal) Δ matrix
3. Find the pseudo-model 푃
4. Find the (diagonal) matrix 푇
5. Solve the following for new values of 훽 and 푢 using EMMA:
푇푃 = 푇푋훽 + 푇푢
NOTE: The alternative method modifies Step 5 to use EMMA to determine the variance
components and to find a new value for 훽 , while leaving the value of 푢 at its expected
value of zero.
After convergence, the alternative method predicts the values of 푢, and
computes the final values of 휂 and 휇 from this prediction

25. Computing the Kinship Matrix

26. KBAC and MM-KBAC SVS Interface

27. Applying MMKBAC to a real study

28. KBAC vs MM-KBAC QQ Plots
휆 = 0.757 휆 = 1.018
KBAC w Pop. Covariates: 휆 = 0.902

29. Signal at PSRC1

30. Signal at HIRA

31. Conclusion
 This will method will be added into SVS in the near future…
In the meantime…
 Like to try it out on your dataset – ask us to be part of our early-access
program!
 We have submitted an abstract to ASHG, hope to see you there!

32. Announcements
 Webcast recording and slides will be up on our website tomorrow.
 T-shirt Design Contest! Details at www.goldenhelix.com/events/t-shirtcontest.
html
 Next scheduled webcast is July 22nd, but Heather Huson of Cornell
University.

33. Questions?
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