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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF CHICAGO
CAPITAL MARKETS NEWS
September 2002
Solutions on Measuring Operational Risk
Overview
I
n the past, the banking industry
thought measuring operational risk
was something akin to mission
impossible. As a result, some banks
defined operational risk as a non-measur-
able risk. During the last few years that
mindset has dramatically changed, to the
point where now discussions on measuring
operational risk are actually considered to
be trendy. Such a reversal of fortune is
due, in part, to recent developments
within the Basel Committee on Banking
Supervision (thereafter, the Basel
Committee}, and its decision to allocate
regulatory capital for operational risk. I
have been asked to give numerous
speeches on this topic, both at home and
abroad. Following are the three most
commonly asked questions about mea-
suring operational risk:
• Why is it necessary?
• How is it possible?
• What are the challenging issues in
putting it into practice?
Unfortunately, very few papers or
books espouse solutions to these ques-
tions based on existing banking practices,
as measuring operational risk is a fairly
new and esoteric topic. This paper aims
to provide readers with possible solutions,
or at least hints, on effectively addressing
these three questions'.
Why Is It Necessary?
Over the course of time banks have
developed, and have capitalized on,
new business opportunities given
advances made in IT, deregulation, and
intense international competition.
These initiatives were welcomed by
their customers seeking far more
advanced financial services. Operational
risk in the past was controlled based on
qualitative risk management practices
involving checklists and operations
manual. It stands to reason that the
operational risks banks face today have
become more complex than ever
before as a result of the faster pace of
change in the complexity of their
operations, and also due to increased
risk awareness. Banks, therefore, have
found limits to traditional qualitative
operational risk management.
Following are the main reasons why
banks try to measure operational risk:
Enhancing the Internal Control
Framework
Large banks seek to establish a basis for
effective and efficient internal control
measures. Subjective judgements on
internal control, however, tend to mis-
guide the board of directors and senior
managers with wrong priorities in
enhancing operational risk management.
Operational risk measurement enables
banks to establish a criteria of objectivity
and comparability in prioritizing risk
control among different business lines and
risk categories, in order to supplement
internal control in a more robust way.
Adequacy of Required Economic
Capital for Operational Risk
As market risk and credit risk
measurement methods have been devel-
oped, large banks have, in turn, established
integrated risk management systems to
determine whether they hold adequate
economic capital or not, compared vith
Capital Markets News is published quarterly by the Capital Markets Group of the
Supervision and Regulation Department. Its primary intention is to further
examiners' understanding of topical issues pertaining to derivatives and other
capital markets subjects. Articles are not intended as exhaustive commentaries of
the subject matter; rather, they are summaries meant to convey a basic under-
standing of the issue and to serve as a foundation for further analysis. Readers
who would like further information on any ofthe articles may contact the author
directly. For additional copies of back issues of the newsletter, please contact
Joe Cilia at 312-322-2368.
Any opinions expressed are the authors' alone and do not necessarily reflect
the views ofthe Federal Reserve Bank ofChicago or the Federal Reserve System.
CA PIT AL MA R KET S
NEWS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
. M •ng Operational Risk co11ti1111ed
Solunons on easur1
the risk taking strategies authorized by
the board of directors. Thus, It is
inevitable for banks to allocate their
economic capital to operational risk
explicitly. Material events with substan-
tial losses incurred act to remind banks
of that necessity.
(ROE). It is commonly seen in practice,
however, that employees tend to focus
on ways to increase return rather than
return on equity. Return on equity
could be based on measured risk,
depending on the balance between risk
taking and risk management. Thus,
banks seek to allocate economic capital
to operational risk based on risk measure-
ment and results of risk assessment, so
employees have an incentive to improve
risk management. Their improvement,
which turns out to be measured and
scored, reduces the allocated capital to
Enhancement of Performance
Evaluation
It is very important to give employ-
ees the incentives to enhance opera-
tional risk management through vari-
ous methods such as return on equity
Chart 1 Examples ofTop-Down Method
Approaches Way to Measure Operational Risk
It is assumed that, for example, gross income or
INDICATOR APPROACH cost is a proxy, and that a certain percentage is
regarded as operational risk ofbanks.
It is assumed that all the risks are measured based on
CAPM APPROACH
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); then, market
risk and credit risk, measured separately, are
deducted from all risk measured by CAPM.
Volatility ofincome is regarded as a risk. For example,
VOLATILITY APPROACH volatility ofnon-interest income, which is regarded
as operational risk, is measured.
Chart 2 Examples of Bottom-Up Method
Approaches Way to Measure Operational Risk
STATISTICAL MEASUREMENT
The maximum amount of operational risk is mea-
APPROACH
sured based on_ individual events with frequency
and seventy usmg Monte Carlo simulation or an
analytical solution.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
As for events with low frequency and high severity
losses would be t" d b d . 'es imate ase on scenarios with
reference to external data and events that oc;urred
.
at other banks.
FACTOR ANALYSIS APPROACH
Factors related t J h0 osses sue as transaction volume
:nd error.ratios are identified and are taken into
ccount with correlation analysis.
BAYSIAN NETWORK M
Causes and effc f .
ODEL Th ects O operational risk are modeled.
ere are cases wher thi d I .• k e s mo e 1s used in settlement
ns management.
2
their operational . kns as th ·
mance evaluation or ROE. eir Perfor-
unproves.
How Is It Possible?
There exist both top-down
tom-up methods in . and bot-
. measuring
t1onal risk. The forme ks opera-. r~e ~e.
It on a macro basis with . stimate
our identify•
events or causes oflosses h"l ing, w 1e the 1
measures it based on identifi d atter
. e events th
explam the mechanism of h at
. ow and wh
operational risk occurs Ad d . Y. . vance mter-
nat10nal banks commonly 1. emp oy these
two methods m the following ways: The
may start with the top-down h Y
. . met od
temporarily, m order to allocate th .. . e1r eco-
nonuc capital to operational risk and th
hifi:b
, en
s to ottom-up methods such as sta . .t!Stl-
cal measurement approach and scenario
analysis by establishing robust event and
loss databases. Or, they may directly stan
with a combination ofbottom-up methods
such as statistical measurement approaches
and scenario analyses to measure opera-
tional risk. In other words, it is necessary to
measure operational risk based not onlyon
historical data, but also scenario data with
forward looking approaches, given the
rapid change in environment surrounding
the banking industry.
What Are The Challenging
Issues in Putting It
Into Practice?
Chart 3 provides readers with aframe-
work for enhancing operational risk
management. It is necessary for banksto
employ such an enhanced, robust frame-
work when putting quantitative methods
into practice. The framework is useful
· · • re ckarly
because challengmg 1SSues a .
identified on a firm-wide basis and possi-
ble solutions are pursued based on robuSr
· n clearly
coordination and cooperatto
b d f directors,
defined among the oar 0
. k anagement
senior management, ns rn
sections and business line managers.
Solutions on Measuring Operational Risk continued
Chart 3 A Framework for Enhancing Operational Risk Management
Qualitative
Management
Layer
Quantitative
Management
Layer
-
Mentifying
---Events
Identifying Past
Events
Identifying
Potential
Events
Event & Loss
Data Base
Analyzing Risk Mapping
Causes ofEvents
.... i,..
Analyzing Comparative
Causes of - Analysis by
Occurring Events Scoring
I
Analyzing Causes of
Occurring or
Expanding Losses
'Risk Measurement
(Business Lines and Risk Types)
""'
Risk Control
Capital
I- Management
Prevention Capital
... Measures for Allocation etc.
Occurring Events
.._
t
Detection Risk Tranifer.._
Measuresfor -
such as Insurance
Occurring Losses
'-I
UiRMethod
I..... HCompound Operational Risk
r• Potential Risk
I-.. I
Scenario Analysis
I
Management
Audit and
Inspection
Layer
Scenario
., ..
Review ofAudit and Inspection
fWi±tffi rt Niiii?Me± icii W& ii:iHi B t :& ½W3ii8W . ]
Pitfalls in Enhancing
Operational Risk Management
Adopting Operational Risk
Management Without a Framework
In order to fulfill the aims of measur-
ing operational risk steadily, it is necessary
to combine a robust framework for
enhancing it with strong management
leadership. However, without a robust
framework as depicted in the chart 3,
instances arise where banks may experi-
ence inconsistency in dealing with qual-
itative risk management and quantitative
risk management. It stands to reason that
such scenarios will not result in effective
and efficient risk control.
Applying Risk Measurement
to Risk Management with
Material Outstanding Defects
If banks hasten to apply risk measure-
ment to risk management with inadequate
definition and inconsistent interpretation
of operational risk and its events, the
results ofrisk measurement will not reflect
reality, and business line managers will not
be able to rely on these results. If banks
measure risk based only on past event data,
they might not capture those material
potential events with "low frequency and
high severity" and, likewise, will not cap-
ture the future impact of the changing
environment (internally and externally) on
future operational losses. It is imperative to
apply risk measurement to risk manage-
ment without material defects.
Common Outstanding Issues
The following issues pose unique
challenges to all banks:
Establishing a Robust Database
Establish Internal Data with More
Practical Classifications
When collecting indirect data, a trade-
off exists between objectivity and data
3
usefulness. To what extent should banks
collect indirect losses? How should inter-
nal and external auditors check the
objectivity of its classification? The
answers to these questions depend on the
materialiry and cost/benefit analyses of
collecting indirect data. In any event, it is
a prerequisite for banks to put high prior-
ities on collecting robust database.
Supplement Internal Data with
External Data
It is very useful to supplement the
limits of an internal database with exter-
nal data, which will also contribute to
the development of robust scenario
analyses. External databases may be avail-
able to banks; however, in the course of
implementing them, they may face the
challenging risk management issue of
mapping that external data into an inter-
nal database with differing transaction
volu°:e. Questions also in how to supple-
ment internal data with external data and,
CA p ITAL MARKETS NEW s--------------------- <
Solutions on Measuring Operational Risk continued
ultimately, how to link external data with
scenario analysis?
Establish Qualitative Data Objecti~ly
At many international banks qualita-
tive data, such as self-assessment scoring
results, are used for capital allocation to
operational risk. This forward-looking
approach affords business line managers
incentives to improve their risk manage-
ment through the selfassessment process.
Consider a situation where huge opera-
tional losses occur in a business line. The
maximum amount ofoperational risk, or
economic capital charge, allotted to that
line becomes so large that line managers
might have little incentive to improve
their risk management. In utilizing self
assessment scoring results, adjustments
can be taken into account in allocating
economic capital that reflect improve-
ments in the risk management process.
To justify these adjustments, qualitative
data should be checked objectively by
internal auditors.
Developing Sophisticated
Risk Measurement Models
It is a prerequisite for banks to estab-
lish sophisticated and practical risk mea-
surement models based on the banks'
own operations. In measuring the maxi-
mum amount of operational risk, chal-
lenging issues exist; namely, determining
the period of risk measurement, estab-
lishing the confidence interval such as 99
percent, 99.9 percent or 99.975 percent,
and recognizing the assumption ofdistri-
bution function. Events with "low fre-
quency and high severity", which could
be captured by a parametric approach,
may be explicitly captured by scenario
analysis. Since scenario analysis tends to
be less objective than the maximum
amount of operational risk, it is useful to
change assumptions within and between
scenario analyses, and to compare their
impacts on risk measurement. Another
way is to map scenario analyses into loss
databases, and re-calculate the maximum
amount ofoperational risk. In either case,
it is important to see the results of mea-
sured operational risk within ranges
depending on various assumptions.
Introducing and Developing
Effective Risk Transfer Methods
It is worthwhile to keep abreast of
effective risk transfer methods such as
insurance or Alternative Risk Transfer
(ART). Advanced books on operational
risk cover these topics, along with other
movements that discuss more effective
capital management between capital allo-
cation and risk transfer methods.
Insurance companies tend to supply not
only traditional BBB (Bankers Blanket
Bonds) but also more comprehensive
insurance products which cover a wider
range ofoperational risks faced by banks.
Given these initiatives, the Basel
Committee is considering a move to
allow banks to reduce the required capital
charge to operational risk, if banks hold
sufficient insurance products in an effort
to mitigate operational risk.
- ]unji Hiwatashi;
4
; The reference is "Ad .
vancmg o .
Management UsingJapanese Bankin perationa1 Risi
which was published in th h g Experiences"
. e ornepage ofth
paper m the Federal Res eWorkin;
.. erve Bank ofCh·
"E · · icag0
xanurung Officer and M .
anager ofth B
Japan was seconded to the F d I e ank 01
. e era Reserv B
Chicago during the summer
200
e _ank 01
. 2. The op · .
tlm paper is the author's pe I . Inion 1n
rsona view and d
necessarily represent the Bank fJ Oes no1
o apan or the F
Reserve Bank ofChicago. ederal
OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe:
Two New Exchanges to Trade Securities Futurest
T
he Commodity Futures
Moder~ization A~t ("CFMA"),
signed mto law m December
2000, repealed the Shad-Johnson Accord
to allow, for the first time, the trading of
single stock futures and futures on narrow-
based indices (thereafter "securities
futures") in the US.2
With derivatives
exchanges, electronic communication
networks ("ECNs") and equity
exchanges in the US preparing to offer
these new products, attention in Chicago
has focused on the rising rivalry between
two new ventures: OneChicago and
Nasdaq Liffe Markets.
OneChicago
OneChicago, LLC represents a part-
nership between the three derivatives
exchanges in Chicago - the CBOE,
CME and CBOT - created with the
sole purpose to trade securities futures.
OneChicago was structured as a for-
profit, limited liability company, privately
held and owned by the three participating
exchanges with some management own-
ership. The CBOE and CME have a con-
siderably larger stake in the partnership
than CBOT.3
William J. Rainer, who
served as Chairman of the CFTC, serves
as Chairman and ChiefExecutive Officer
of OneChicago; members on the Board
of Directors are drawn from the three
participating exchanges.
The joint venture attempts to take
a~vantage of the three exchanges' com-
bmed resources, while providing the
~~st flexibility to its users. The three par-
ticipating exchanges have agreed to use
the CFTC as their lead regulator and the
Comrni · 'SSion granted the new exchange a
contract market designation in June
2002•OneChicago will also notice regis-
ter with the SEC as a national securities
exchange. The CME will serve as the
regulatory organization for the new
exchange, responsible for all market and
financial ·11 .. surve1 ance and trade practice
investigat· Th
A
ions. e National Futures
ssociation ("NFA") ill .d d.r . w provi e ispute
esolution services.
.Members of the three Chicago deriv-
atives ex~hanges automatically gain
membership to OneChicago and, inter-
estingly, membership in the new
exchange exists only through member-
ship in the participating exchanges.4
OneChicago will be an entirely elec-
tronic exchange using CBOEdirect,™
the electronic trading system of the
CBOE, as its trading engine. CME mem-
bers can trade via connections to
CBOEdirect™ through access points to
GLOBEX®, CME's electronic trading
system. CBOT members will have to
trade through either of the two engines.
In order to promote liquidity in its
products, OneChicago developed a trad-
ing model supported by appointed market
makers called Lead Market Makers
("LMM"). For each ofthe security futures
products traded, OneChicago plans to
enter into a contract with a LMM, who
will be obligated to provide continuous,
two-sided markets for all expiration
months in the products allocated to it.
LMMs will need to connect through
CBOEdirect™ to have the capacity to
enter two-sided quotes. The concept has
been met with interest on the part of the
combined membership of OneChicago
and twenty...:two member firms have been
approved to serve as LMMs.
Clearing arrangements for OneChicago
are through the Options Clearing
Corporation ("OCC") and the CME
clearinghouse. Clearing members with
dual clearing membership at the OCC
and the CME have an option to clear with
either clearinghouse for a year; thereafter,
they need to clear through the OCC.
Clearing members with membership at
only one clearinghouse, be it the OCC or
the CME clearinghouse, will continue to
clear with their respective clearinghouse.
Transaction fees will be received by
OneChicago and clearing fees by the
CME clearinghouse or the OCC,
depending on the clearing re!ationship.
Members will get a bundled pnce.
OneChicago plans to start with at least
75 single-stock options and at least 20
5
narrow-based indices. Several critical
queStions on the construction of these
indices had to be resolved in terms of
what the market would find most attrac-
tive. Matters under investigation entailed
settlement (cash or physical), number of
constituent securities (construction of
"b d" "roa versus very narrow" indices),
and calculation of index (weighting by
market capitalization versus price) .
OneChicago has already made available
an initial list of sector-specific narrow-
based indices, each comprised of four to
five stocks. Eight sectors are represented:
airlines, biotech, computers, defense,
investment banking, oil services, retail
and semiconductor components.
Nasdaq Liffe Markets
Encouraged by the success ofits single
stock futures, the universal stock futures
("USF"), LIFFE announced in March
2001 the creation of Nasdaq Liffe
Markets, LCC ("NQLX"), a joint ven-
ture with Nasdaq Stock Market®, to
develop a single stock futures market
based on global stocks for US and
European customers. The new exchange
is jointly owned by the two parent com-
panies with equal board representation.
In August 2001, NQLX received con-
ditional designation as a contract market
for securities futures from the CFTC and
will register as a national securities
exchange for securities futures with the
SEC. It has also been recognized as an
overseas investment exchange in the UK
by the UK Treasury. This will allow
NQLX to provide direct access to its
market to members in the UK. NQLX's
regulatory function is operated by
NASDR, and it will operate as a fully
electronic, independent exchange. Its
products will be listed on LIFFE CON-
NECT,™ LIFFE 's electronic trading
platform. Trades will be executed with a
central limit order book on a strict price-
time priority.
NQLX has two types of membership:
clearing and non-clearing members.
NQLX members must meet the specific
CA P IT A L MA R K ET S N E W S - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe continued
minimum financial thresholds, ethics
standards, and volume requirements for
their membership category. Clearing
arrangements are with the OCC. A clear-
ing member must be a clearing member
ofthe OCC; a non-clearing member has
direct market access through LIFFE
CONNECT™ without clearing respon-
sibilities.' Further, in January 2002,
NQLX entered into an agreement with
the Board ofTrade Clearing Corporation
under which BOTCC will process give-
up related brokerage payments for
NQLX member firms. As is customary in
the exchange world, NQLX will charge
its members a standard transaction fee and
the OCC will levy a clearing charge.
NQLX anticipates that it will trade
futures contracts on Nasdaq100® and
Nasdaq composite stock indices, single
securities, and possibly narrow-based
indices and options on securities futures.
Contract specifications are for the
most part identical between OneChicago
and NQLX, although some differences
might exist (e.g., delivery months, posi-
tion limits). On both exchanges prices
will be quoted in dollars. Each contract
will be for 100 shares ofstock with a tick
size (minimum price movement) of$0.01
per share ($1.0 per contract). Trading will
be synchronous across the two exchanges
and will cease when the underlying shares
cease to trade in the cash market.
Although fungibility across exchanges is
an open issue to be decided by each
exchange,6 in practical terms it could be
handled by the OCC, as in the equity
options market. The last trading day will
be the third Friday ofthe delivery month,
and contracts will be physically settled.
More Competition
OneChicago and NQLX aren't the
only entities with aspirations to offer
securities futures. In September 2001, the
American Stock Exchange ("AMEX")
announced its plans to list and trade single
stock futures on its own trading floor.
The only exchange to use the open out-
cry venue for trading the new products,
AMEX hopes to leverage the success of
its specialist market structure and the
deep liquidity ofthe Wall Street firms that
trade on its floor to win market share.
Further, AMEX has already a clearing
arrangement in place with the OCC.
In February 2002, the CFTC granted
contract market designation to Island
Futures Exchange, LLC, a new entity
operated by Island Holdings, LLC, which
runs and operates Island ECN, an
Alternative Trading System with 700
subscribers, both broker-dealers and
institutions. The OCC will provide
clearing and settlement services for the
new exchange and the NFA will perform
certain self-regulatory functions.7
Only
clearing members of the OCC can be
clearing members for Island Futures
Exchange; they must meet the OCC's
minimum capital requirements.
Considerable optimism exists in the
US for the success of securities futures,
and more exchanges might decide to list
the new products. It is expected that
hedge funds will enter the market first,
followed by arbitrageurs when the mar-
ket is deep enough to handle large trades,
and subsequently by more conservative
institutional investors, such as pension
and mutual funds. The entry of hedge
funds into the market is critical, judging
from the experience in Europe. In the
UK, the main users of USF at LIFFE8
have been mainly indexers looking to
enhance performance; hedge funds do
not appear to have endorsed the product.
As a result, volume has been sporadic and
regular flows have not emerged. In contrast,
the five single stock futures contracts
listed on MEFF, the Spanish derivatives
exchange, have witnessed considerable
success with hedge funds trading heavily
in these instruments.
Security Listings
The success of securities futures will
depend on the selection of the right
underlying security to build liquidity and
critical mass to attract more volume.• The
Chicago derivatives exchanges combine
outstanding experience in options and
broad-based equity futures, and have
worked diligently to select the final list of
first instruments to be listed. Market cap-
italization, volatility, customer demand
and preferences are some of the variables
6
dri~ing the selection of listings. NQLX
devised a complex algorithm to 1. . se ect the
underlying instruments for single stock
futures from the combined un·® 1verse of
S&PS00 and NasdaqlOO® 1· d". n ices,
looking for securities with a high d. . egree
of specific nsk to the index that would
not be well hedged with the broad-based
index future. Different market regimes
were examined, since variance-covari-
ance matrices of returns are not static
over time, and volatility and implied
volatility measures were factored into the
selection process as well.
OneChicago and NQLX announced
their initial listing for stock futures trad-
ing earlier this year. This preliminary list
consists of 71 underlying stocks for
OneChicago and 50 for NQLX. These
are drawn a variety ofsectors, somewhat
skewed towards pharmaceuticals &
biotechnology, computers & software and
the communications sector. Diversified
financial services firms are well repre-
sented and include Bank One, Bank of
America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase,
Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley Dean
Witter. Not surprisingly, 43 securities
futures contracts are common to both
lists, placing the rivalry between the two
exchanges in sharp focus. NQLX intends
to enrich its offerings with additional
securities futures and, contrary to
OneChicago, it does not plan to offer
narrow-based indices at this time.
Looking Ahead
The prospects appear favorable for
OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe. The
CBOE-CME-CBOT joint venture is a
historic development in Chicago, com-
bining the experience and expertise of
the three leading US derivatives
exchanges. Grounded in pragmatism,
OneChicago promises to unite Chicago
liquidity on one screen. There are
approximately 7,000 members at t~e
three exchanges, not counting for dup -
cation, who will gain automatic access to
the exchange through their membership
in the participating exchanges. The
LMM market model will ensure a two-
. b"d dsided market with continuous I s an
offers. NQLX hopes that the strength of
-OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe continued
Nasdaq's brand and its pre-eminent posi-
tion in the US equity market will make it
particularly attractive to institutional
investors first and, subsequently, to the
retail market in the US and later in
Europe. NQLX has positioned itself
more as a global exchange thanks primar-
ily to the broad distribution of LIFFE
CONNECT,TM which can be accessed
from over 400 sites in 24 countries. The
reach of the network will increase now
that LIFFE has merged into Euronext.10
Network externalities will work in favor
ofNQLX's products, while LIFFE's USF
experience assures that the system has the
technical capacity for smooth trading.
This summer the CFTC and the SEC
approved customer margin rules for sin-
gle stock futures, a regulatory hurdle that
had received much attention. While the
tax treatment of these products is still to
be determined, NQLX and OneChicago
remain hopeful to begin trad.ing securities
futures later this fall.11
Given that liquid.ity
in the futures markets has traditionally
gravitated ·to one exchange, it will be
interesting to see who will be the winner
once trad.ing begins.
-- Gloria Ikosi
Bibliography
Will Acworth, "Security Futures: The New
Game in Town.", Futures Industry Magazine
December 2001.
David Lascelles, Single Stock Futures: The
Ultimate Derivative. Center for the Study of
Financial Innovation (CSFI) 2002.
Tom Nicholls, "LIFFE To Continue Listing
More Single Stock Futures." Futures Industry
Magazine, December 2001.
Michael A. Wallinskas, "Clearing: It's Not
Just Another Futures Contract." Futures
Industry Magazine, December 2001.
1 Special thanks to WilliamJ. Rainer for his time
and generosity in granting me a telephone interview
in March 2002.
2
The new Act recognizes that securities futures
can be viewed as both securities and futures and places
the new products under the joint regulation of the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
("CFTC") and the Securities and Exchange
Commission ("SEC").
3 CBOE and CME will have approximately a 40%
stake; CBOT's stake is around 1()%.
4 In other words, a new member should decide
what type ofseat they need to have in one ofthe three
exchanges; with the appropriate membership plan at
the participating exchange, they will automatically
become a member ofOneChicago.
5 A membership list on the NQLX website
(wwwnqlx com) lists 29 pre-approved clearing mem-
bers and 25 pre-approved non-clearing members.
7
6
NQLX supports the idea offungibility.
7
These will include market and financial surveil-
lance, audits, rrade practice investigations, and dispute
resolution. NFA will process applications from Island
members.
8
LIFFE introduced its UFS in January 2001 with
the launch of 25 singles stock futures based on highly
rraded and well capitalized stocks. The initial list cov-
ered eight countries, five sectors and three currencies.
Since then, the number ofconrracts listed expanded to
97, covering 11 countries, 12 sectors, and denominated
in five currencies. Trading volume in 2001 has been
encouraging, with around 2.4 million USF conrracts
with a notional value of£5.43 billion(€ 8.80 billion).
9 Two research reports by the TowerGroup discuss
the prospects of single stock futures and will be
released this summer. Based on a press release, the
reports support the thesis that, in the long-term. sin-
gle stock futures will be a success, although volume
might take time to build. Interest in these products on
the part ofretail investors is also anticipated.
10 In October 2001, LIFFE was taken over by the
Paris-based derivatives exchange, Euronext. London
will become the European hub for Euronext's deriva-
tives business, which will migrate onto LIFFE CON-
NECTTM
11 Thirty days after the publication of margin rules
in the Federal Register would give a theoretical termi-
nus post quern for the onset ofrrading ofthese products.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF CHICAGO
P.O . BOX 834
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS 60690-0834
RETURNSERVICEREQUESTED
Publisher
Adrian D'Silva (312) 322-5904
Director, Capital Markets
Editors
Joe Cilia (312) 322-2368
Senior Capital Markets Analyst
Craig West (312) 322-2312
Senior Capital Markets Analyst
Capital Markets Group of
Supervision and Regulation
14th Floor
Federal Reserve Bank ofChicago
P.O. Box 834
Chicago, IL 60690-0834

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Cap markets news sep2002

  • 1. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO CAPITAL MARKETS NEWS September 2002 Solutions on Measuring Operational Risk Overview I n the past, the banking industry thought measuring operational risk was something akin to mission impossible. As a result, some banks defined operational risk as a non-measur- able risk. During the last few years that mindset has dramatically changed, to the point where now discussions on measuring operational risk are actually considered to be trendy. Such a reversal of fortune is due, in part, to recent developments within the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (thereafter, the Basel Committee}, and its decision to allocate regulatory capital for operational risk. I have been asked to give numerous speeches on this topic, both at home and abroad. Following are the three most commonly asked questions about mea- suring operational risk: • Why is it necessary? • How is it possible? • What are the challenging issues in putting it into practice? Unfortunately, very few papers or books espouse solutions to these ques- tions based on existing banking practices, as measuring operational risk is a fairly new and esoteric topic. This paper aims to provide readers with possible solutions, or at least hints, on effectively addressing these three questions'. Why Is It Necessary? Over the course of time banks have developed, and have capitalized on, new business opportunities given advances made in IT, deregulation, and intense international competition. These initiatives were welcomed by their customers seeking far more advanced financial services. Operational risk in the past was controlled based on qualitative risk management practices involving checklists and operations manual. It stands to reason that the operational risks banks face today have become more complex than ever before as a result of the faster pace of change in the complexity of their operations, and also due to increased risk awareness. Banks, therefore, have found limits to traditional qualitative operational risk management. Following are the main reasons why banks try to measure operational risk: Enhancing the Internal Control Framework Large banks seek to establish a basis for effective and efficient internal control measures. Subjective judgements on internal control, however, tend to mis- guide the board of directors and senior managers with wrong priorities in enhancing operational risk management. Operational risk measurement enables banks to establish a criteria of objectivity and comparability in prioritizing risk control among different business lines and risk categories, in order to supplement internal control in a more robust way. Adequacy of Required Economic Capital for Operational Risk As market risk and credit risk measurement methods have been devel- oped, large banks have, in turn, established integrated risk management systems to determine whether they hold adequate economic capital or not, compared vith Capital Markets News is published quarterly by the Capital Markets Group of the Supervision and Regulation Department. Its primary intention is to further examiners' understanding of topical issues pertaining to derivatives and other capital markets subjects. Articles are not intended as exhaustive commentaries of the subject matter; rather, they are summaries meant to convey a basic under- standing of the issue and to serve as a foundation for further analysis. Readers who would like further information on any ofthe articles may contact the author directly. For additional copies of back issues of the newsletter, please contact Joe Cilia at 312-322-2368. Any opinions expressed are the authors' alone and do not necessarily reflect the views ofthe Federal Reserve Bank ofChicago or the Federal Reserve System.
  • 2. CA PIT AL MA R KET S NEWS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . M •ng Operational Risk co11ti1111ed Solunons on easur1 the risk taking strategies authorized by the board of directors. Thus, It is inevitable for banks to allocate their economic capital to operational risk explicitly. Material events with substan- tial losses incurred act to remind banks of that necessity. (ROE). It is commonly seen in practice, however, that employees tend to focus on ways to increase return rather than return on equity. Return on equity could be based on measured risk, depending on the balance between risk taking and risk management. Thus, banks seek to allocate economic capital to operational risk based on risk measure- ment and results of risk assessment, so employees have an incentive to improve risk management. Their improvement, which turns out to be measured and scored, reduces the allocated capital to Enhancement of Performance Evaluation It is very important to give employ- ees the incentives to enhance opera- tional risk management through vari- ous methods such as return on equity Chart 1 Examples ofTop-Down Method Approaches Way to Measure Operational Risk It is assumed that, for example, gross income or INDICATOR APPROACH cost is a proxy, and that a certain percentage is regarded as operational risk ofbanks. It is assumed that all the risks are measured based on CAPM APPROACH Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); then, market risk and credit risk, measured separately, are deducted from all risk measured by CAPM. Volatility ofincome is regarded as a risk. For example, VOLATILITY APPROACH volatility ofnon-interest income, which is regarded as operational risk, is measured. Chart 2 Examples of Bottom-Up Method Approaches Way to Measure Operational Risk STATISTICAL MEASUREMENT The maximum amount of operational risk is mea- APPROACH sured based on_ individual events with frequency and seventy usmg Monte Carlo simulation or an analytical solution. SCENARIO ANALYSIS As for events with low frequency and high severity losses would be t" d b d . 'es imate ase on scenarios with reference to external data and events that oc;urred . at other banks. FACTOR ANALYSIS APPROACH Factors related t J h0 osses sue as transaction volume :nd error.ratios are identified and are taken into ccount with correlation analysis. BAYSIAN NETWORK M Causes and effc f . ODEL Th ects O operational risk are modeled. ere are cases wher thi d I .• k e s mo e 1s used in settlement ns management. 2 their operational . kns as th · mance evaluation or ROE. eir Perfor- unproves. How Is It Possible? There exist both top-down tom-up methods in . and bot- . measuring t1onal risk. The forme ks opera-. r~e ~e. It on a macro basis with . stimate our identify• events or causes oflosses h"l ing, w 1e the 1 measures it based on identifi d atter . e events th explam the mechanism of h at . ow and wh operational risk occurs Ad d . Y. . vance mter- nat10nal banks commonly 1. emp oy these two methods m the following ways: The may start with the top-down h Y . . met od temporarily, m order to allocate th .. . e1r eco- nonuc capital to operational risk and th hifi:b , en s to ottom-up methods such as sta . .t!Stl- cal measurement approach and scenario analysis by establishing robust event and loss databases. Or, they may directly stan with a combination ofbottom-up methods such as statistical measurement approaches and scenario analyses to measure opera- tional risk. In other words, it is necessary to measure operational risk based not onlyon historical data, but also scenario data with forward looking approaches, given the rapid change in environment surrounding the banking industry. What Are The Challenging Issues in Putting It Into Practice? Chart 3 provides readers with aframe- work for enhancing operational risk management. It is necessary for banksto employ such an enhanced, robust frame- work when putting quantitative methods into practice. The framework is useful · · • re ckarly because challengmg 1SSues a . identified on a firm-wide basis and possi- ble solutions are pursued based on robuSr · n clearly coordination and cooperatto b d f directors, defined among the oar 0 . k anagement senior management, ns rn sections and business line managers.
  • 3. Solutions on Measuring Operational Risk continued Chart 3 A Framework for Enhancing Operational Risk Management Qualitative Management Layer Quantitative Management Layer - Mentifying ---Events Identifying Past Events Identifying Potential Events Event & Loss Data Base Analyzing Risk Mapping Causes ofEvents .... i,.. Analyzing Comparative Causes of - Analysis by Occurring Events Scoring I Analyzing Causes of Occurring or Expanding Losses 'Risk Measurement (Business Lines and Risk Types) ""' Risk Control Capital I- Management Prevention Capital ... Measures for Allocation etc. Occurring Events .._ t Detection Risk Tranifer.._ Measuresfor - such as Insurance Occurring Losses '-I UiRMethod I..... HCompound Operational Risk r• Potential Risk I-.. I Scenario Analysis I Management Audit and Inspection Layer Scenario ., .. Review ofAudit and Inspection fWi±tffi rt Niiii?Me± icii W& ii:iHi B t :& ½W3ii8W . ] Pitfalls in Enhancing Operational Risk Management Adopting Operational Risk Management Without a Framework In order to fulfill the aims of measur- ing operational risk steadily, it is necessary to combine a robust framework for enhancing it with strong management leadership. However, without a robust framework as depicted in the chart 3, instances arise where banks may experi- ence inconsistency in dealing with qual- itative risk management and quantitative risk management. It stands to reason that such scenarios will not result in effective and efficient risk control. Applying Risk Measurement to Risk Management with Material Outstanding Defects If banks hasten to apply risk measure- ment to risk management with inadequate definition and inconsistent interpretation of operational risk and its events, the results ofrisk measurement will not reflect reality, and business line managers will not be able to rely on these results. If banks measure risk based only on past event data, they might not capture those material potential events with "low frequency and high severity" and, likewise, will not cap- ture the future impact of the changing environment (internally and externally) on future operational losses. It is imperative to apply risk measurement to risk manage- ment without material defects. Common Outstanding Issues The following issues pose unique challenges to all banks: Establishing a Robust Database Establish Internal Data with More Practical Classifications When collecting indirect data, a trade- off exists between objectivity and data 3 usefulness. To what extent should banks collect indirect losses? How should inter- nal and external auditors check the objectivity of its classification? The answers to these questions depend on the materialiry and cost/benefit analyses of collecting indirect data. In any event, it is a prerequisite for banks to put high prior- ities on collecting robust database. Supplement Internal Data with External Data It is very useful to supplement the limits of an internal database with exter- nal data, which will also contribute to the development of robust scenario analyses. External databases may be avail- able to banks; however, in the course of implementing them, they may face the challenging risk management issue of mapping that external data into an inter- nal database with differing transaction volu°:e. Questions also in how to supple- ment internal data with external data and,
  • 4. CA p ITAL MARKETS NEW s--------------------- < Solutions on Measuring Operational Risk continued ultimately, how to link external data with scenario analysis? Establish Qualitative Data Objecti~ly At many international banks qualita- tive data, such as self-assessment scoring results, are used for capital allocation to operational risk. This forward-looking approach affords business line managers incentives to improve their risk manage- ment through the selfassessment process. Consider a situation where huge opera- tional losses occur in a business line. The maximum amount ofoperational risk, or economic capital charge, allotted to that line becomes so large that line managers might have little incentive to improve their risk management. In utilizing self assessment scoring results, adjustments can be taken into account in allocating economic capital that reflect improve- ments in the risk management process. To justify these adjustments, qualitative data should be checked objectively by internal auditors. Developing Sophisticated Risk Measurement Models It is a prerequisite for banks to estab- lish sophisticated and practical risk mea- surement models based on the banks' own operations. In measuring the maxi- mum amount of operational risk, chal- lenging issues exist; namely, determining the period of risk measurement, estab- lishing the confidence interval such as 99 percent, 99.9 percent or 99.975 percent, and recognizing the assumption ofdistri- bution function. Events with "low fre- quency and high severity", which could be captured by a parametric approach, may be explicitly captured by scenario analysis. Since scenario analysis tends to be less objective than the maximum amount of operational risk, it is useful to change assumptions within and between scenario analyses, and to compare their impacts on risk measurement. Another way is to map scenario analyses into loss databases, and re-calculate the maximum amount ofoperational risk. In either case, it is important to see the results of mea- sured operational risk within ranges depending on various assumptions. Introducing and Developing Effective Risk Transfer Methods It is worthwhile to keep abreast of effective risk transfer methods such as insurance or Alternative Risk Transfer (ART). Advanced books on operational risk cover these topics, along with other movements that discuss more effective capital management between capital allo- cation and risk transfer methods. Insurance companies tend to supply not only traditional BBB (Bankers Blanket Bonds) but also more comprehensive insurance products which cover a wider range ofoperational risks faced by banks. Given these initiatives, the Basel Committee is considering a move to allow banks to reduce the required capital charge to operational risk, if banks hold sufficient insurance products in an effort to mitigate operational risk. - ]unji Hiwatashi; 4 ; The reference is "Ad . vancmg o . Management UsingJapanese Bankin perationa1 Risi which was published in th h g Experiences" . e ornepage ofth paper m the Federal Res eWorkin; .. erve Bank ofCh· "E · · icag0 xanurung Officer and M . anager ofth B Japan was seconded to the F d I e ank 01 . e era Reserv B Chicago during the summer 200 e _ank 01 . 2. The op · . tlm paper is the author's pe I . Inion 1n rsona view and d necessarily represent the Bank fJ Oes no1 o apan or the F Reserve Bank ofChicago. ederal
  • 5. OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe: Two New Exchanges to Trade Securities Futurest T he Commodity Futures Moder~ization A~t ("CFMA"), signed mto law m December 2000, repealed the Shad-Johnson Accord to allow, for the first time, the trading of single stock futures and futures on narrow- based indices (thereafter "securities futures") in the US.2 With derivatives exchanges, electronic communication networks ("ECNs") and equity exchanges in the US preparing to offer these new products, attention in Chicago has focused on the rising rivalry between two new ventures: OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe Markets. OneChicago OneChicago, LLC represents a part- nership between the three derivatives exchanges in Chicago - the CBOE, CME and CBOT - created with the sole purpose to trade securities futures. OneChicago was structured as a for- profit, limited liability company, privately held and owned by the three participating exchanges with some management own- ership. The CBOE and CME have a con- siderably larger stake in the partnership than CBOT.3 William J. Rainer, who served as Chairman of the CFTC, serves as Chairman and ChiefExecutive Officer of OneChicago; members on the Board of Directors are drawn from the three participating exchanges. The joint venture attempts to take a~vantage of the three exchanges' com- bmed resources, while providing the ~~st flexibility to its users. The three par- ticipating exchanges have agreed to use the CFTC as their lead regulator and the Comrni · 'SSion granted the new exchange a contract market designation in June 2002•OneChicago will also notice regis- ter with the SEC as a national securities exchange. The CME will serve as the regulatory organization for the new exchange, responsible for all market and financial ·11 .. surve1 ance and trade practice investigat· Th A ions. e National Futures ssociation ("NFA") ill .d d.r . w provi e ispute esolution services. .Members of the three Chicago deriv- atives ex~hanges automatically gain membership to OneChicago and, inter- estingly, membership in the new exchange exists only through member- ship in the participating exchanges.4 OneChicago will be an entirely elec- tronic exchange using CBOEdirect,™ the electronic trading system of the CBOE, as its trading engine. CME mem- bers can trade via connections to CBOEdirect™ through access points to GLOBEX®, CME's electronic trading system. CBOT members will have to trade through either of the two engines. In order to promote liquidity in its products, OneChicago developed a trad- ing model supported by appointed market makers called Lead Market Makers ("LMM"). For each ofthe security futures products traded, OneChicago plans to enter into a contract with a LMM, who will be obligated to provide continuous, two-sided markets for all expiration months in the products allocated to it. LMMs will need to connect through CBOEdirect™ to have the capacity to enter two-sided quotes. The concept has been met with interest on the part of the combined membership of OneChicago and twenty...:two member firms have been approved to serve as LMMs. Clearing arrangements for OneChicago are through the Options Clearing Corporation ("OCC") and the CME clearinghouse. Clearing members with dual clearing membership at the OCC and the CME have an option to clear with either clearinghouse for a year; thereafter, they need to clear through the OCC. Clearing members with membership at only one clearinghouse, be it the OCC or the CME clearinghouse, will continue to clear with their respective clearinghouse. Transaction fees will be received by OneChicago and clearing fees by the CME clearinghouse or the OCC, depending on the clearing re!ationship. Members will get a bundled pnce. OneChicago plans to start with at least 75 single-stock options and at least 20 5 narrow-based indices. Several critical queStions on the construction of these indices had to be resolved in terms of what the market would find most attrac- tive. Matters under investigation entailed settlement (cash or physical), number of constituent securities (construction of "b d" "roa versus very narrow" indices), and calculation of index (weighting by market capitalization versus price) . OneChicago has already made available an initial list of sector-specific narrow- based indices, each comprised of four to five stocks. Eight sectors are represented: airlines, biotech, computers, defense, investment banking, oil services, retail and semiconductor components. Nasdaq Liffe Markets Encouraged by the success ofits single stock futures, the universal stock futures ("USF"), LIFFE announced in March 2001 the creation of Nasdaq Liffe Markets, LCC ("NQLX"), a joint ven- ture with Nasdaq Stock Market®, to develop a single stock futures market based on global stocks for US and European customers. The new exchange is jointly owned by the two parent com- panies with equal board representation. In August 2001, NQLX received con- ditional designation as a contract market for securities futures from the CFTC and will register as a national securities exchange for securities futures with the SEC. It has also been recognized as an overseas investment exchange in the UK by the UK Treasury. This will allow NQLX to provide direct access to its market to members in the UK. NQLX's regulatory function is operated by NASDR, and it will operate as a fully electronic, independent exchange. Its products will be listed on LIFFE CON- NECT,™ LIFFE 's electronic trading platform. Trades will be executed with a central limit order book on a strict price- time priority. NQLX has two types of membership: clearing and non-clearing members. NQLX members must meet the specific
  • 6. CA P IT A L MA R K ET S N E W S - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe continued minimum financial thresholds, ethics standards, and volume requirements for their membership category. Clearing arrangements are with the OCC. A clear- ing member must be a clearing member ofthe OCC; a non-clearing member has direct market access through LIFFE CONNECT™ without clearing respon- sibilities.' Further, in January 2002, NQLX entered into an agreement with the Board ofTrade Clearing Corporation under which BOTCC will process give- up related brokerage payments for NQLX member firms. As is customary in the exchange world, NQLX will charge its members a standard transaction fee and the OCC will levy a clearing charge. NQLX anticipates that it will trade futures contracts on Nasdaq100® and Nasdaq composite stock indices, single securities, and possibly narrow-based indices and options on securities futures. Contract specifications are for the most part identical between OneChicago and NQLX, although some differences might exist (e.g., delivery months, posi- tion limits). On both exchanges prices will be quoted in dollars. Each contract will be for 100 shares ofstock with a tick size (minimum price movement) of$0.01 per share ($1.0 per contract). Trading will be synchronous across the two exchanges and will cease when the underlying shares cease to trade in the cash market. Although fungibility across exchanges is an open issue to be decided by each exchange,6 in practical terms it could be handled by the OCC, as in the equity options market. The last trading day will be the third Friday ofthe delivery month, and contracts will be physically settled. More Competition OneChicago and NQLX aren't the only entities with aspirations to offer securities futures. In September 2001, the American Stock Exchange ("AMEX") announced its plans to list and trade single stock futures on its own trading floor. The only exchange to use the open out- cry venue for trading the new products, AMEX hopes to leverage the success of its specialist market structure and the deep liquidity ofthe Wall Street firms that trade on its floor to win market share. Further, AMEX has already a clearing arrangement in place with the OCC. In February 2002, the CFTC granted contract market designation to Island Futures Exchange, LLC, a new entity operated by Island Holdings, LLC, which runs and operates Island ECN, an Alternative Trading System with 700 subscribers, both broker-dealers and institutions. The OCC will provide clearing and settlement services for the new exchange and the NFA will perform certain self-regulatory functions.7 Only clearing members of the OCC can be clearing members for Island Futures Exchange; they must meet the OCC's minimum capital requirements. Considerable optimism exists in the US for the success of securities futures, and more exchanges might decide to list the new products. It is expected that hedge funds will enter the market first, followed by arbitrageurs when the mar- ket is deep enough to handle large trades, and subsequently by more conservative institutional investors, such as pension and mutual funds. The entry of hedge funds into the market is critical, judging from the experience in Europe. In the UK, the main users of USF at LIFFE8 have been mainly indexers looking to enhance performance; hedge funds do not appear to have endorsed the product. As a result, volume has been sporadic and regular flows have not emerged. In contrast, the five single stock futures contracts listed on MEFF, the Spanish derivatives exchange, have witnessed considerable success with hedge funds trading heavily in these instruments. Security Listings The success of securities futures will depend on the selection of the right underlying security to build liquidity and critical mass to attract more volume.• The Chicago derivatives exchanges combine outstanding experience in options and broad-based equity futures, and have worked diligently to select the final list of first instruments to be listed. Market cap- italization, volatility, customer demand and preferences are some of the variables 6 dri~ing the selection of listings. NQLX devised a complex algorithm to 1. . se ect the underlying instruments for single stock futures from the combined un·® 1verse of S&PS00 and NasdaqlOO® 1· d". n ices, looking for securities with a high d. . egree of specific nsk to the index that would not be well hedged with the broad-based index future. Different market regimes were examined, since variance-covari- ance matrices of returns are not static over time, and volatility and implied volatility measures were factored into the selection process as well. OneChicago and NQLX announced their initial listing for stock futures trad- ing earlier this year. This preliminary list consists of 71 underlying stocks for OneChicago and 50 for NQLX. These are drawn a variety ofsectors, somewhat skewed towards pharmaceuticals & biotechnology, computers & software and the communications sector. Diversified financial services firms are well repre- sented and include Bank One, Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Not surprisingly, 43 securities futures contracts are common to both lists, placing the rivalry between the two exchanges in sharp focus. NQLX intends to enrich its offerings with additional securities futures and, contrary to OneChicago, it does not plan to offer narrow-based indices at this time. Looking Ahead The prospects appear favorable for OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe. The CBOE-CME-CBOT joint venture is a historic development in Chicago, com- bining the experience and expertise of the three leading US derivatives exchanges. Grounded in pragmatism, OneChicago promises to unite Chicago liquidity on one screen. There are approximately 7,000 members at t~e three exchanges, not counting for dup - cation, who will gain automatic access to the exchange through their membership in the participating exchanges. The LMM market model will ensure a two- . b"d dsided market with continuous I s an offers. NQLX hopes that the strength of
  • 7. -OneChicago and Nasdaq Liffe continued Nasdaq's brand and its pre-eminent posi- tion in the US equity market will make it particularly attractive to institutional investors first and, subsequently, to the retail market in the US and later in Europe. NQLX has positioned itself more as a global exchange thanks primar- ily to the broad distribution of LIFFE CONNECT,TM which can be accessed from over 400 sites in 24 countries. The reach of the network will increase now that LIFFE has merged into Euronext.10 Network externalities will work in favor ofNQLX's products, while LIFFE's USF experience assures that the system has the technical capacity for smooth trading. This summer the CFTC and the SEC approved customer margin rules for sin- gle stock futures, a regulatory hurdle that had received much attention. While the tax treatment of these products is still to be determined, NQLX and OneChicago remain hopeful to begin trad.ing securities futures later this fall.11 Given that liquid.ity in the futures markets has traditionally gravitated ·to one exchange, it will be interesting to see who will be the winner once trad.ing begins. -- Gloria Ikosi Bibliography Will Acworth, "Security Futures: The New Game in Town.", Futures Industry Magazine December 2001. David Lascelles, Single Stock Futures: The Ultimate Derivative. Center for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI) 2002. Tom Nicholls, "LIFFE To Continue Listing More Single Stock Futures." Futures Industry Magazine, December 2001. Michael A. Wallinskas, "Clearing: It's Not Just Another Futures Contract." Futures Industry Magazine, December 2001. 1 Special thanks to WilliamJ. Rainer for his time and generosity in granting me a telephone interview in March 2002. 2 The new Act recognizes that securities futures can be viewed as both securities and futures and places the new products under the joint regulation of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC") and the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). 3 CBOE and CME will have approximately a 40% stake; CBOT's stake is around 1()%. 4 In other words, a new member should decide what type ofseat they need to have in one ofthe three exchanges; with the appropriate membership plan at the participating exchange, they will automatically become a member ofOneChicago. 5 A membership list on the NQLX website (wwwnqlx com) lists 29 pre-approved clearing mem- bers and 25 pre-approved non-clearing members. 7 6 NQLX supports the idea offungibility. 7 These will include market and financial surveil- lance, audits, rrade practice investigations, and dispute resolution. NFA will process applications from Island members. 8 LIFFE introduced its UFS in January 2001 with the launch of 25 singles stock futures based on highly rraded and well capitalized stocks. The initial list cov- ered eight countries, five sectors and three currencies. Since then, the number ofconrracts listed expanded to 97, covering 11 countries, 12 sectors, and denominated in five currencies. Trading volume in 2001 has been encouraging, with around 2.4 million USF conrracts with a notional value of£5.43 billion(€ 8.80 billion). 9 Two research reports by the TowerGroup discuss the prospects of single stock futures and will be released this summer. Based on a press release, the reports support the thesis that, in the long-term. sin- gle stock futures will be a success, although volume might take time to build. Interest in these products on the part ofretail investors is also anticipated. 10 In October 2001, LIFFE was taken over by the Paris-based derivatives exchange, Euronext. London will become the European hub for Euronext's deriva- tives business, which will migrate onto LIFFE CON- NECTTM 11 Thirty days after the publication of margin rules in the Federal Register would give a theoretical termi- nus post quern for the onset ofrrading ofthese products.
  • 8. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO P.O . BOX 834 CHICAGO, ILLINOIS 60690-0834 RETURNSERVICEREQUESTED Publisher Adrian D'Silva (312) 322-5904 Director, Capital Markets Editors Joe Cilia (312) 322-2368 Senior Capital Markets Analyst Craig West (312) 322-2312 Senior Capital Markets Analyst Capital Markets Group of Supervision and Regulation 14th Floor Federal Reserve Bank ofChicago P.O. Box 834 Chicago, IL 60690-0834