End-to-end calculations using IDCT tools

1. End-to-end risk model for Pavia using GEM tools
Catalina Yepes Estrada
GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

2. End-to-end risk model for Pavia using GEM tools
Masters course on Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation

3. GEM Tools and models
IDCT
GEM Taxonomy
FF Manager
OQ engine
SHARE model

4. Building Portfolio
1255 Buildings
40 Students
12 Groups (by colors)
≈ 10 hours to survey 100 buildings
1220 Buildings were surveyed
Mobile Android and Windows IDCT apps
•
detailed per-building exposure dataset

5. Building Portfolio
Surveyed buildings according with the
material of the lateral load resisting system
Reinforced concrete
Masonry, unknown
Unreinforced masonry

6. Exposure model
16 building typologies
Replacement cost of 388 €/m2
Total replacement cost ≈780 M€

7. Fragility and Vulnerability Functions

8. Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
(Ahmadet al 2010)

9. Fragility and Vulnerability Functions
(Ahmadet al 2010)

10. GEM Vulnerability Database

11. Hazard model from SHARE
10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 Years
[g]
PGA ≈ 0.15g

12. Probabilistic Event-based Risk Calculator
Set of ground motion fields
Exposure model
Vulnerability functions
Loss curves
Loss maps

13. Total loss exceedance curve and Average Annual Loss (AAL)
AAL around 0.6% of the total replacement cost

14. Economic loss maps
2%, 10% and 50% Probability of Exceedance in 50 years
< 100€
140€-190€
300€-400€
> 600€
Thousand EUR

17. Except where otherwise noted, thiswork is licensed under:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org