Climate Disasters and Vulnerability
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The basics are the three pillars of understanding climate change. Climate change has consequences and I present my top ten impacts stories from 2017.
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Climate Disasters and Vulnerability
- 1. Climate and Disasters: From basic facts to a vulnerable world Thomas E Downing 15 January 2018, Lund
- 3. What are the two definitions of climate change? Answers later…
- 4. Three lines of evidence • Physical basis of climate change • Observed climate change • Model validation and scenario testing
- 6. The world is getting warmer…
- 7. …and will continue to get warmer still
- 8. Decrease in return period for extreme events
- 9. Tracking climate science • IPCC – https://www.ipcc.ch/report/graphics/index.php?t=S pecial%20Reports&r=SREX&f=SPM • Public understanding of science – http://www.climatesignals.org/
- 10. B. Climate change has consequences
- 11. Four eras A bit of history helps set the context
- 13. C. Ten current impacts
- 14. 1. Another record warm year, without ENSO See animated comparison of projections: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/why-2017-broke- another-worrying-temperature-record/?utm_campaign=Feed%3A+inside-the-world-economic- forum+%28Inside+The+World+Economic+Forum%29&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner
- 15. 2. Extreme circulation types Arctic bomb highlighted warm and cold spell at end of year across US NASA: land surface temperatures from December 26, 2017, to January 2, 2018, compared with average temperatures over the past eight years
- 16. 3. Dead seas Red: number of oxygen depleted zones along coasts has increased up to 10 times, from less than 50 to 500 http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/e ntry/climate-change-ocean-dead- zones_us_5a4ff489e4b003133ec 7cc3f
- 17. 4. Coral reefs under attack Time between severe bleaching events has shrunk by a factor of five https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/01/coral-bleaching-reefs-climate-change-el-nino-environment/
- 18. 5. Atlantic hurricane season Harvey, Maria (shown making landfall in Puerto Rico) and Irma cause $225 billion in economic damages by some estimates
- 20. 7. Iberian Fire
- 21. 8. Flooding in Sierra Leone and China • China: • Yangtze floods killed 141 people and caused $7.5 billion in damage • Southern China floods killed 20 and causes $4.5 billion in damages • Sierra Leone • Flood and mudslide worst on record • At least 1,050 died in the Freetown region
- 22. 9. Outdoor air pollution Over 2 million people died globally in 2017
- 23. 10. Drought in East Africa 1.8 million displaced $1.9 billion in damages Somali drought of 2010 to 2011 led to famine with over 250,000 deaths
- 24. The global and local conspire Creating disasters From vulnerability TDowning@ClimateAdaptation.cc Based on lectures at Lund University January 2018 for Mo Hamza’s module on climate change adaptation and disaster risk management