Decision Making

1. 2020
Assignment Submitted to : Dr. Nausheen
Submitted By: Farrukh Jamshaid MS-2nd
CASE STUDY ON THE CURTAIN
FALLS

2. DISCUSS QUESTIONS:
1. Explain the type of problem and decision making styles used here?
According to the case, this decision making was non-linear style and “a radical
experiment.” Because this was something that had never been done before, it can be
seen as an unstructured decision. Also, while it was known that this format would save
money, they did not know if it would be accepted by viewers, making the condition one
of uncertainty. Nonlinear Thinking Characterized by a preference for internal sources of
information (feelings and intuition) and processing this information with internal insights,
feelings, and hunches to guide decisions and actions
2. What criteria were chosen to make the decision? Justify its feasibility.
It appears that NBC’s main criterion was cost of production. Primetime 60-
minute dramas are traditionally five times more expensive to produce than comedy-
variety shows. From this format’s failure in the prime time slot, it is obvious that other
criteria should have been taken into consideration. For example, samples of viewers
could have been surveyed to see if they would watch the format in primetime. It is also
possible that there are different viewers that watch television at those times.
3. Would have produced different outcomes. Which one would have been
better?
Decision Making outcome. Certainty an ideal situation in which a manager can
make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.
Risk .A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of
outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Uncertainty, limited
information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with
the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut
feelings”.Jeff Gaspin’s statement, He said that “I don’t think it’s wrong to take chances..
Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don’t”. It says that Jeff is a risk taker. Jeff took
risks in order to maximize their profit. When you take risks, rewards will follow.
Unfortunately, loss will follow if risks are not carefully considered.
4. Describe how using:
a. Rationality:
In a rational decision making process, a business manager will often employ a
series of analytical steps to review relevant facts, observations and possible outcomes
before choosing a particular course of action. The network executives would have
followed a series of logical steps to help them reach the decision about prime-time
format. This would have included a thorough evaluation of the decision criteria, criteria
weights, possible alternatives, and evaluation of those alternative’s outcomes.

3. NBC should have taken into account all the probable causes of the problem to
make a more appropriate solution. It is also fairly logical to consider which aspects will
be affected when a decision, or in the case a risk, is made/ taken.
b. Bounded Rationality:
Rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the cognitive
limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make a decision.
The decision would have been made based on a limited set of criteria and alternatives.
NBC could have just tried to increase the staff’s commitment to the show. This
way, it will make the show better. Therefore, it will get higher ratings which actually
means greater profit. In lieu of saving money, the show could just make more money.
c. Intuition:
Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated
judgment. A number of factors would have been considered including past experience,
manager feelings, manager’s skills, subconscious mental process, and managerial
values. If NBC made the decision based on their experience, they might not have taken
the risk knowing what the consequences are.
d. Evidence Base Management:
The systematic use of the best available evidence to improve management
practice. The managers would have relied on available information on the success of
similar formats. If NBC used the best available evidence and relevant data’s upon
making the decision, they could have come up with a more appropriate solution. In this
case, there were no available evidences that changing the show’s format is the best
way to cut the budget.