Decision making

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Decision making

  1. 1. Decision Making
  2. 2. Definition Performance deficiency – Actual performance being less than desired performance. Performance opportunity – Actual performance being better than desired performance. Problem solving – The process of identifying a discrepancy between actual and desired performance and taking action to resolve it. Decision – A choice among possible alternative course of action. 2
  3. 3.  Problem-solving approaches or styles: – Problem avoiders. • Inactive in information gathering and solving problems. – Problem solvers. • Reactive in gathering information and solving problems. – Problem seekers. • Proactive in anticipating problems and opportunities and taking appropriate action to gain an advantage. 3
  4. 4.  Systematic versus intuitive thinking. – Systematic thinking approaches problems in a rational, step-by- step, and analytical fashion. – Intuitive thinking approaches problems in a flexible and spontaneous fashion. – Multidimensional thinking applies both intuitive and systematic thinking. – Effective multidimensional thinking requires skill at strategic opportunism. 4
  5. 5.  Cognitive styles. – Sensation Thinkers emphasize the impersonal rather than the personal and take a realistic approach to problem solving. – Intuitive Thinkers are comfortable with abstraction and tend to be idealistic. spontaneous fashion. – Intuitive Feelers prefer broad and global issues and are comfortable with intangibles. – Sensation Feelers emphasize analysis and human relations and tend to be realistic and prefer facts. 5
  6. 6. TYPES OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS Programmed decisions. – Apply solutions that are readily available from past experiences to solve structured problems. – Structured problems are ones that are familiar, straightforward, and clear with respect to information needs. – Best applied to routine problems that can be anticipated. 6
  7. 7.  Nonprogrammed decisions. – Develop novel solutions to meet the demands of unique situation that present unstructured problems. – Unstructured problems are ones that are full of ambiguities and information deficiencies. – Commonly faced by higher-level management. 7
  8. 8.  Crisis decision making. – A crisis involves an unexpected problem that can lead to disaster if not resolved quickly and appropriately. – Rules for crisis management: • Figure out what is going on. • Remember that speed matters. • Remember that slow counts, too. • Respect the danger of the unfamiliar. • Value the skeptic. • Be ready to “fight fire with fire.” 8
  9. 9. DECISION CONDITIONS Decision environments: – Certain environments. • Offer complete information about possible action alternatives and their outcomes. – Risk environments. • Lack complete information about action alternatives and their consequences, but offer some estimates of probabilities of outcomes for possible action alternatives. – Uncertain environments • Information is so poor that probabilities cannot be assigned to likely outcomes of known action alternatives. 9
  10. 10. Figure 6.4 Three environments for managerial decision making and problem solving. 10
  11. 11. THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Decision-making process a set of activities that begin with the identification of a problem, include making a decision, and end with the evaluation of results. 11
  12. 12. Five-step decision-making process:– Identify and define the problem.– Generate and evaluate possible solutions.– Choose a preferred course of action and conduct the “ethics double check.”– Implement the decision.– Evaluate results. 12
  13. 13. Figure 6.5 Steps in managerial decision making and problem solving. 13
  14. 14.  Step 1 — identify and define the problem. – Focuses on information gathering, information processing, and deliberation. – Decision objectives should be established. – Common mistakes in defining problems: • Defining the problem too broadly or too narrowly. • Focusing on symptoms instead of causes. • Choosing the wrong problem. 14
  15. 15.  Step 2 — generate and evaluate possible solutions. – Potential solutions are formulated and more information is gathered, data are analyzed , the advantages and disadvantages of alternative solutions are identified – Approaches for evaluating alternatives: • Stakeholder analysis. • Cost-benefit analysis. 15
  16. 16.  Step 2 — generate and evaluate possible solutions (cont.). – Criteria for evaluating alternatives: • Benefits. • Costs. • Timeliness. • Acceptability. • Ethical soundness. – Common mistakes: • Selecting a particular solution too quickly. • Choosing a convenient alternative that may have damaging side effects or may not be as good as other alternatives. 16
  17. 17.  Step 3 — decide on a preferred course of action. – Classical decision model. • Managers act rationally in a certain world. • Managers face clearly defined problems and have complete knowledge of all possible alternatives and their consequences. • Results in an optimizing decision. 17
  18. 18.  Step 3 — decide on a preferred course of action (cont.). – Behavioral decision model • Managers act in terms of what they perceive about a given situation. • Recognizes limits to human information-processing capabilities. – Cognitive limitations. – Bounded rationality. – Results in a satisficing decision. 18
  19. 19.  Step 4 — implement the decision solution. – Involves taking action to make sure the solution decided upon becomes a reality. – Managers need to have willingness and ability to implement action plans. – Lack-of-participation error should be avoided. 19
  20. 20. Figure 6.6 Differences in the classical and behavioral models of managerial decision making. 20
  21. 21.  Step 5 — evaluate results. – Involves comparing actual and desired results. – Positive and negative consequences of chosen course of action should be examined. – If actual results fall short of desired results, the manager returns to earlier steps in the decision- making process. 21
  22. 22. INDIVIDUAL VERSUS GROUP DECISION MAKING Potential advantages of group decision making: – Greater amounts of information, knowledge, and expertise are available. – More action alternatives are considered. – Increased understanding and acceptance of outcomes. – Increased commitment to implement final plans. 22
  23. 23.  Potential disadvantages of group decision making: – Pressure to conform. – Minority domination may occur. – Decision making takes longer. 23
  24. 24.  When group decision making works best: – Individual lacks expertise or information. – Problem is unclear and hard to define. – Acceptance by others needed for effective implementation – Time is sufficient for group involvement. 24

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