OUTDATED (Version 0.3 ), The (Western-Russian Conflict)); An Obligatory ((Win-win)) ! - Version 0.3-.pdf

An Obligatory ((Win-win)) !
West-RU Conflict Ver 0.3 Nov. 6th 2022 HABIB’s Complexity 3D Perspective Eng Emad Farag HABIB
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An Obligatory ((Win-win)) !
The ”West-Russian Conflict”
have reached a point where :
A “Win-win” Approach is Obligatory ! ,
given the existence of both :
the ”West-Russian” Conflict & Consequences,
and the “Global“ Climate Change Catastrophe .

 Western “Enlightment VALUES” are Fully INVISIBLE to the Russian Elite ! ,
Worse yet: they are sure that all these hocus-pocus are mere LIES !!
 It is Impossible to suffice by “Sanctions until draining the warmachine ”
 A RU-defeat will most-likely mean a motive for the next round!
 Never mentioning that: Climate Change is-worsening: so time is on their side !
 Problem is NOT !
[ Ukraine / Food and Energy crises/ Warmachine / Democracy/ Putin/ not even Nature Manipulation? (if any) ] !!
But the Utmost Problem is the : Climate Change
 It is the West’s Responsibility to Gap the Cultural Differences
 Win-win WEST can do it : West can Rely on Previous Successes
 The Redline: Forests …
CONCLUSIONS

( Next Slides : “QUOTES” )
… “Another Century” …
… “The Russian Riddle” …
… “Moral Peril” …

“The playbook
of Russia's aggression
against Ukraine
comes straight out
of Another Century ”
Ursula von der Leyen
European Commission President
May 2022.

“ I can’t forecast to you the Actions
of RUSSIA: It is a Riddle, wrapped in
a Mystery, inside an Enigma,
but perhaps there is a key. That key
is Russian National Interest. “
Winston Churchill, 1939

INTRODUCTION

It is Impossible to suffice by “Sanctions until draining the warmachine ”
This approach means simply that : sooner or later :
a Full Implementation of the “Climate Change Plot” (in Favor of Russia)
will take place, Leading to the eventual Destruction of Planet Earth
(with an 100% Certainty ! ) .
INTRODUCTION ( 1 of 3 )

While facing such Unprecedented Existential Threat,
A very effective approach exists :
It is an approach Based on the West’s “Win-win” approach,
Guaranteeing preventing any future Recurrence of the Threat,
Via addressing the Root-causes of the Conflict

In response to the West Openness in the 1990’s,
The Russians behaved in a totally unexpected way,
that entailed a hugely Irrational covert hostility !
The Russian-riddle can be proposed as :
Them don’t comprehend the reality of the “Western VALUES” ( at all ? ) ,
and the West don’t comprehend the Depth of RU “Moral Peril” ( at all ? ) .

… “Enlightment VALUES” …
The world’s democracies need to defend
and sustain their Enlightenment values.
A global retreat from balancing power
with legitimacy will cause the social
contract to disintegrate both
domestically and internationally.
Henry A. Kissinger,
The Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2020

TOC
Preface
CONCLUSIONS!
3 Quotes [Moral Peril/ RU Riddle/Another Century]
INTRODUCTION [3 slides]
4th Quote [Enlightment Values]
Problem & Solution : [ 8-Point Problem / 8-Point Solution ]
Concluding: ( including CONCLUSIONS )
APPENDICES
Counter-Vagues/ Counter-Fabs/ Abbreviations/ References/ File Versions

Problem & Solution

The Problem & A Solution
( 8-Slides + 8 Slides )
A Problem,
An Existential-Problem !
A Perfect Solution
A Win-win approach : addressing the “Root-cause” of the Problem
Next Slides: 8-point Problem Statement,
Then 8-point Solution

“Russians are Good & Oppressed”
Shocking RU news of: RU Youth escaping Mobilization,
and RU Mil does NOT want to fight,
And 15 years in Jail for calling an invasion an invasion,
Russian People are Good yet oppressed
Problem Points: #1 of 8

“Russia since 1990”
Chronology of the 3-decades Conflict till 2022
1990’s , 2000’s, 2010’s, 2020’s
Term: 2022 “Post-post-Coldwar”
1990’s : First Cooperation Plan :
Initial Successes ( for both Sides ),
then a Setback !

… “Enlightment VALUES”?! …
The Main Point is :
Russian Elite don’t comprehend the reality of the “Western VALUES” ( at all ? ) ,
And the West don’t comprehend the Depth of RU “Moral Peril” ( at all ? ) .
How West is perceived : its VALUES of :
[ Democracy, Freedom, Tolerance, Gatherings, Human Rights.. ] :
Are totally incomprehensible to them ,
and are resulting in the a/m Moral Peril
Contradicting Their [ Traditions, Morals, Norms, .. ]
RU Elite perceive matters as: West are rich, that's why they have the luxury to
mind staff like [ Democracy, Freedoms, Tolerance, ... ]

“RU-people”
Never before in History has the RU-people been so close to Western Values
than they are today,
they are severely Oppressed
after tasting the Western Style of Living, for ( a transient period of time)
So: RU-people are aspiring to :
[ Business, competition, and free market, and possibly Democracy ] :
Maybe some inter-elite debate is there ,
but the majority will be in favor of Western Values .

“RU-Elite”
A RU (CVL2) Problem ! / and How the West (CVL3) is perceived
RU Cultural ELITE are unable of Accomplishing activities that necessitates :
[Intellectual / Creative / Constructive / Collaborative] Acts .
A famous example is:
the CUBAN Missile Crisis 1962 ( trending in news these days )
H.E. President Khrushchev knew he was “Losing control” of the Escalation
[ downing of US Planes, anticipated US invasion : CU would almost-sure use nuclear ! ]
The main point here is: He took the Decision, alone : despite disagreements
( note that H.E. President Kennedy: Consulted both Truman and Eisenhower )

Contain RU Today = Face’m again Tomorrow !
RU are good, strong, invincible ,
But most-of-all : are won-able ! (talks-wise)
But choosing to only “Contain” them :
Will result in a Round#2: A new Confrontation ( Or A Covert Confrontation)
Crises will repeated , but with a much-worse Setting !
i.e. with the ( Climate Change ) Plot enjoying a worse-already Global Climate !
RU defeat (facts on the ground) = Bad News !
Can easily become a motive for the next round
With same irrational hostility : Destruction for Destruction
And in particular Destruction for WEST’s values and assets
( as the World's Elite was shocked in the last 2 decades )

Must Resolve via Civilization Gap
the lethal TRIAD :
[ CVL23-gap + Technology-capabilities + GHG-is-worsening ]
= Good “CHANCE” for more GHG !!
GHG-is-worsening :
"Damage is Done" ? : Damage is doing, Damage is progressing !
( and is NOT Solvable via: deprive RU of Technology and the like )
so time is on their side !!

Matters seem like “They knew their mistake” ?
Good Signs: Humanitarian Policy / Diplomatic Missions / War
“Humanitarian Policy”
Which is uncommon in the RU political Literature
Diplomatic Missions: RU is Considering less diplomatic missions in the West,
And more missions in Asia and Africa ..
War: RU forces in Ukraine have clearly took defensive positions (October 28th )
RU Matters seem like “They knew their mistake” ?
( and are somehow astray ? )

The Problem & A Solution

“Solution’s First Step: Problem Statement”
A problem Well-posed is Half-solved :
The Problem is NOT
[ Ukraine / Food and Energy crises/ Warmachine / Democracy/
Putin/ not even Nature Manipulation? (if any) ] !
Details: Problem is NOT :
Democracy, Freedoms, nor even Manipulating Western Democracies, Events, and Elections !
NOR: Weapons, violating the Crucial Rules of ( Aggressive/ Defensive Democratic/Else )
NOR: Putin, Oligards, Corruption
NOR: Nature Manipulation, .. (if any)
Trapping Humanity in an unprecedented disaster in RU favor !!
And it simply stemmed from the : “Moral Peril”: ( be it due to CVL23 or a whatever Cultural Problem )
Luckily enough: This is both a CAUSE and a REMEDY ! : ( Layer#1, cf 7-Layers, it CAUSED CVL2 to push ahead
with GHG ! )
Solution Points: #1 of 8

“Solution’s First Step : Problem Statement”
But the Utmost Problem is the : Climate Change (cont.)
The West must intensify efforts to resolve that RU problem of CVL23 ,
or face a dreadful future !!
In Summary:
Problem is “Climate Change”
and it is Resolvable only via resolving the ”CVL23”Problem
Time to invest Military Victories in Diplomatic Win-win Gains
( Save the Planet and Grant them Democracy )
Too Much Crushing Defeats will lead to opposite results on the longterm
( Example?? : the Arab-Israeli Conflict, 1973 War: Egypt invested military
victories in Diplomatic Gains at the correct moment )

WEST’s Responsibility !
Referring again to the main point of “Moral Peril”
It is the West’s Responsibility to Gap the Cultural Differences in this regard !
1990’s : first round of the
"Full Cooperation between the US and Russia”
Had initial success ( for both Sides ) then a Setback !
possibly linked to French saying of: "Consultation - Concertation" ?,
West took-on the role of "Consultation" ? ??
( possibly due to under-estimating the cultural-gap,
which was indeed not a big-issue at that time )
Year 2022 : whether or not : the WAR in Ukraine will cease or will continue :
next Round of Conflict Resolution is Very Promising
With good hopes and great expectations

Experts can Elaborate such Win-win
Experts can Elaborate such Win-win Plan
much better than an “amateur”! ( i.e.: the Author of this Presentation )
However: Author will only present Few Suggestions & points in next slides
( as a continuation of the Elaboration of Proposed Win-win idea )

Win-win WEST
the Win-Win West:
1945 : Europe : Marshal Project
1945: JP: Westernization & McArther's
2022: H.E. US President Biden: Avoiding Rivalry , True Global Responsibility and
Sincere Efforts to Restoring World Order .
"if the Americans and Russians started to shooting each other: we are in a
different world" February 2022
2022: RU: Resolve the CVL23? , Full Cooperation ( again )

“Global Major Threats” !!
Major Threats : A Causality Hierarchy
Arranging MAJOR Threats that face our world today :
We may propose a Causality Hierarchy LIST as :
7. Authoritarians ( Nationalism, Populism, .. , inequality, .. )
6. West-East Conflict (Since the Cold war)
5. Grand Businesses, Global Capitals, .. ( Main 3, ..)
4. Global Order, ( the “Uppermost Layer” for decades, Up to 20 years ago!)
3. World Population ( 8 Billions : a “QUALITY” problem, cf ) ?
2. Climate Change ? ( An Ultimate Existential Threat )
1. CVL23 (or what-so-ever sort of a “Cultural Gap”, and it is WW ! )

“Win-win” = Abstain from “Lose-lose”
Though needless to say: the only guarantee to such
Goodwill from West’s Side Towards Russia:
Is to have substantial Guarantees from the RU-side :
That they will invariably ( Avoid LOSE-LOSE choices ) :
[ Forests/ Nuclear/ and Reckless Global Acts ]

Relying on Previous Successes
EASTERN Europe: a good analysis of Eastern Europe, success stories in these
Countries : can shed light on many good possibilities
Russia 1990's : First Businessmen / Protestant missions to RU:
what were their impressions? feedbacks? responses?
About the RU people,
And what were their recommendations
and longterm expectations for the RU Society ?

Concluding …

 Western “Enlightment VALUES” are Fully INVISIBLE to the Russian Elite ! ,
Worse yet: they are sure that all these hocus-pocus are mere LIES !!
 It is Impossible to suffice by “Sanctions until draining the warmachine ”
 A RU-defeat will most-likely mean a motive for the next round!
 Never mentioning that: Climate Change is-worsening: so time is on their side !
 Problem is NOT !
[Ukraine / Food and Energy crises/ Warmachine / Democracy/ Putin/ not even Nature Manipulation? (if any) ] !!
 It is the West’s Responsibility to Gap the Cultural Differences
 Win-win WEST can do it : West can Rely on Previous Successes
 The Redline: Forests …
CONCLUSIONS

The Redline: Forests …

APPENDICES
A: The 4 Civilizations
B: CVL23 [Can CVL23 explain the
Cultural Gap ?]

37
CIVILIZATION: Humanity’s 4-Civilizations & Cybernetics 3rdOrder
Eng. Emad Farag HABIB
Civilization: Cultivation Agriculture Industry Post-Industry
Human-Nature Relationship :
Negative Positive Aggressive Balanced
Technological System:
Main Power-Source: Human Muscles Animal Muscles Generated-power
Machine
ICT (Computers &
Telecommunications
Man's Main Objective: Survival Basic Needs Prosperity Intellectual
Main Product: Land-generated
Nourishment
Forced Land-
generated
Nourishment
Industrial Products Knowledge
Methods: Natural Trial & Error, Crafts 1D-Science
(Experimentalism)
2D-Science
(Theoreticism)
Cultural System:
Time Nature:
Time
Comprehension
Vague Circular Linear Synchronic …
Time Reference Biological Natural Mechanical Self
Time Accuracy Low Accuracy Low Accuracy Absolute Accuracy Balanced Accuracy
Time Synergy? Destructive Destructive Destructive Constructive
Timeline Trend:
past look to (for) the past benefit from the past benefit from the past
present Current Moment spontaneous
response to present
(calculated)
Adaptation to the
Time Engineering
future fear of the future look for the future Future Management
General Thinking Style:
Myth &
Superstition
Intuition + Scientific
Experimentation
Scientific
Reductionism
Systemic (Gestalt)
Ref: E.N. Elsayed, An Outlook on Future Eras, 1996, (Arabic Language)

4 Civilizations
Humanity have passed through Main 4 Phases of Civilizations :
[ Cultivation / Agricultural/ Industrial/ and Post-Industrial (ICT,..) ]
( cf previous Slide’s Comparison-Table )
#1 is not bad, but is a Very Good Civilization
ALL/Most/Some of these Civilization Phases:
exist in Same Country/State : Integrating and Harmonizing with each other, ..

Can CVL23 explain the Cultural
Gap ?
What Is CVL23
CVL23 : 4 Notions to Consider
Examples on Rural-Urban Divide , CVL23
Simpler Notion of ( Urban-Rural Divide )
CVL23 Link to RU-WEST Issue
Draft: More about CVL23

What Is CVL23
“CVL23” : is just a proposed Abbreviation, similar to RUDE “Rural-Urban Divide in Europe”: it can
pronounced as “Civilization 23” or “Civil 23”
CVL23 can be Defined as:
- An Advanced (Covert!) EU’s “Rural-Urban Divide” Phenomena
- Faking being in an Industrial Civilization,
while in fact being in an Agricultural Civilization …
- A Protracted Conflict

CVL23 : 4 Notions to Consider:
4 Notions: [ Cultural gap, Rural-urban divide, Moral Peril, CVL23 ] :
Cultural gap: Inter-states: differences or disagreements in the set of values and norms. It is a
Major notion, that applies mainly “Inter-state” , and includes many Notions & Issues.
Rural-urban divide: Intra-state ( or Intra-bloc): based on degree of urbanization and affects
votes and political stances. Links also to the degree of “Centrality” : ( Central – Peripheral )
of the concerned community .
Moral Peril: inter-states: the Ethical & Valual Aspects of a Conflict . It can sometimes be
more potential than Economic, Political, or Military Aspects.
CVL23: inter-states: the a/m Rural-urban divide, but in a “covert style”: i.e. State 1 is a
“True” CVL3-state, while State2 is a mere CVL2-state that is apparently perceived as CVL3 .
The 4 Notions represent an Escalating Sequence of Differences :
[ Gap (Generally) / Divide (Disagreements) / Peril (Values-Conflict) / Malignancy ( Covert) ]

Examples on Rural-Urban Divide , CVL23
Rural-Urban Divide :
USA 1920’s
CZ & SK 2000
EU’s 2020’s Rural-Urban Divide Phenomena (2022 report)
CVL23 :
( Problem applies to Elite only, not to commons “all Citizens” )
Cuban Missile Crisis 1962
(cf the Decision Making Mechanisms in both US & USSR )
Late USSR President Gorbachev 1988~ : manufacturing
( Brand-new TV’s : faults after few hours ..)

Simpler Notion of
( Urban-Rural Divide )
( Urban-Rural Divide ) & EU Voting Tendency ! :
CVL2 tending more to vote to Right-wing candidates,
while CVL3 for Left-wing . EU Brilliant Report, 2020 :
about this phenomena
Including Major Factors affecting Voting:
[ Is the Economy Deteriorating? / Is Higher Education
Available? / .. ]
( cf References )

CVL23 Link to RU-WEST Issue
1990’s
2000

Draft: More about CVL23
- Who SUFFERS CVL23 Most ?
- Many Factors may contribute to the Phenomena : [State-wise and Citizens’-wise] : e.g. :
- #1: CVL3 Onset: How the “Industrial Civilization” (CVL3) was Gained :Self-developed * UK, US, FR + : 1600’s ,
1787, 1789 , VS: “Imported” CVL3: [ Eastern Europe, .. ] : (#1 = less CVL23)
- #2: Land: New Land? VS (strong place-based identities): New Migrants and new generations push CVL3: USA
1920’s (#1 = less CVL23)
- #3: Citizenship State : [ Aboriginals/ Indigenous / Nationals Plus Long History/ Nationals Migrants/ Nationals
of ”Normal States” / Nationals of “Migration Attracting States” / Ditto but Migrants to (Old Land) + ? /.. ]
(List_start = huge CVL23, List_end = less CVL23 )
- #4: Government?: Freedoms or Oppression (#1 = less CVL23) ?
- Why “POPPED-UP” Now?
Possibly linked to Humanity being on the Verge of witnessing a sizable Shift from CVL3 to CVL4 ??
[ Globalization/ Global Supply Chains/ Smart-cities/ AI, 5G/ .. ]
- Applies to : applies to Elite only , not citizens : Problem is witnessed and causes potential repercussions: only
when the Elite “mimics” CVL3 while actually belonging to CVL2 ?
- Covert Activity / “Inverted Conscience” !! : worse than terrorism : a/m cultural differences: creates creatures
that are unprecedently-motivated towards “Little-evil” for a “Common-Good” !!! , creates an unprecedented
Inverted Conscience ?

Counter-Vagues !
Civilizations: ( Phases) : #1 is not bad (They are very good) , and #4 is not the Premium : needless to say: ALL are very
good, each has its roles, duties and rights : We are all integrating each other: Fraternity ,,
- Global (Mega) Businesses: This is NOT against War in Ukraine , nor against W.Business . The Ukraine crisis is
complicated will take long to resolve, and the whole World respects decades-long Businesses, that led in many cases to
land-marking technological and scientific advancements , that benefited all humanity . Problem this time is We have
reached the Limit : Destiny of the whole GLOBE is on stake ! ) // Such LIMIT is always respected: ex: World have
ALREADY witnessed many similar ( Limiting Moves ) many times before : INF/ NPT/ START
- Forests : a “Double Action” deterioration in the Climate-change Situation ! . The Climate Change Disaster is caused by 2
Factors [ Energy & Forests ]: Factor#1 (Energy) is well tackled by Global Efforts , while Forests are still lagging behind in a
phase of tackling via Local-efforts only, and in a more (Reactive ) style than a proactive or protective one. !
- World Population: 8 Billions : It is a “QUALITY” problem, rather than being a Quantity one: the problem stems from
Irrational BEHAVIOURS like over-consumption, trivial and pointless activities in consuming natural resources. It is much
easier to enhance the QUALITY of behaviors to save 25% of Total Consumptions than risking 25% of the QUANTITY .
- Proofs: Presentation contains so many Proposed [ Notions/ Ideas/ Explanations/ Hypotheses ] : it is impossible to
include in a presentation the “PROOFS” to these Proposed items : Most Proofs are replaced by “CLARIFYING” examples
only.

Counter-Fabs !!
OBJECTIVE: the objective of this presentation is not to be IMPRESSIVE to layman readers , but to present the proposed
Problem and Solution ( the proposed explanation for the West-Russian Conflict and the proposed win-win solution ),
with a final objective of: getting CRITICISM and Review Notes .
Research Sequence: Sequence is ( Study, Research / Draft texts/ then Famous Quotes ]
i.e. Sequence is NOT: reading good Quotes/ Let’s cast the terms : “Enlightment VALUES” , “Moral Peril” , in some text !! /
here comes a good text with good terms: time for a PPT  ]
Naïve Author: Sure author is just an amateur !! , yet:
Presentation CONTENT is not a naive perception of the Conflict // the threat is real, and it is lethal to humanity // and
the conflict and its huge costs : are the real MOTIVE for this presentation : what pushes RU towards such a decades-long
plot and such heavy losses ( for Both sides ) .
( This Elaboration: can be moved to some appendix: Losses Elaboration : already suffered The whole world have lost ( for
ever ? ) : the disruptions of ( or even distortions in , full loss of ) the "Global Supply Chains" !!
Price-paid so far? which compares well side-by-side to similar precious Humanity Achievements in the direction of more
collaboration, and teamwork, achiemvents the famous examples of : Ford's Division of Labor and Space Programs . )
CVL23: Author himself: Suffers such Issue: can’t deal at all with CVL2, only a one-sentence-depth communication,
Any further Dialogue: is IMPOSSIBLE
Torture: (Microwave: A.D.S. ) : Version 0.1 : was done under microwave severe torture including DRWOSY Torture !!!! : (
amid 3 days of SLEEP-DEPRIVATION , with a total sleeping-hours less than 3 hours/day !!, at the age of 55 ) . Author
insisted on doing this very important presentation. ( torture continued till 10:32 AM 11/2/2022 ) . In addition to ( Bad
Presntation “Form” not Content : due to Quick development ( 80/20 Pareto Rule )

Abbreviations
Abbreviations:
RU: Russia
UA: Ukraine
US: United States
UK: United Kingdom
FR: France
EU: European Union
CZ: Czek Republic
SK: Slovakia
CU: Cuba
USSR: Former Soviet Union
Mil: Military
H.E.: His Excellency
Abbreviations: (continued)
WW: worldwide, Global, International
CVL: Civilization
CVL2,CVL3: Agricultural , Industrial
cf: Refer to, please turn over to
e.g.: For Example
a/m: afore-mentioned
GHG: Green-house Gases: climate change
INF/ NPT/ START: Famous Treaties for ~limiting armament
ICT: Information & Communications Technology
PPT: PowerPoint Presentation

References :
#1: the Holy Bible
#2: Nixon, Richard, Victory without War, 1988
#3: Elsayed, E.N., An Outlook on Future Eras, 1996, (An Arabic Language Book, ISBN
977-01-4701-X : Issued by an Egyptian University Professor living in Switzerland).
#4: European Union:The Rural-Urban Divide in Europe (RUDE) : 2022 NORFACE
GOVERNANCE: Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme.
#5: Krippendorff, Klaus , “Otherness” , 1996, “A Second-Order Cybernetics of
Otherness”, Klaus Krippendorff, University of Pennsylvania.
(doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1735(199609)13:3<311::AID-SRES106>3.0.CO;2-O )
#6:, Bertalanffy, Ludvig von, 1968, “General System Theory: Foundations,
Development, and Applications”, Revised Edition, George Braziller, New York.

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