Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia!

!   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014!
!   Sudhir Gota!
!...
Crunching Numbers for Low
Carbon Transport in Asia
Sudhir Gota
Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)
Transforming Transportation
16 ...
Common sense ?

Brazil = 40-50 million
vehicles
emits 148 MT of CO2

India = 90-100 million
vehicles
emits 145 MT of CO2

...
The Great Indian Mismatch
350
315

300

Bottom-­‐up	
  

M Tons of CO2

250
200
161
150

145

Top-­‐down	
  

100
50
0
196...
The Great Indian ‘Diesel’ Mismatch
100
90
80

Bottom-­‐up	
  

70
60

40

calibration	
  

MTOE

50

30
20

Official	
  Data...
It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
250
GDP/Capita	
  

200
Vehicles	
  

150
Road	
  Transport	
  
Fuel	
  
Consum...
It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines?
140
120
100

CO2	
  

2-3X
Increase

80
60

DOE 2030
Target

Bottom-up

40
20

...
Cost of “Doing Nothing” in Projects
Impact of the project is compared with a 'no build' / 'without project'/ 'doing nothin...
Thanks	
  to	
  
Lee	
  Schipper,	
  Lee	
  Schipper	
  Memorial	
  Scholarship	
  for	
  Sustainable	
  
Transport	
  and...
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Crunching numbers for low carbon transport in Asia - Sudhir Gota - Lee Schipper Scholar - Transforming Transportation 2014 - EMBARQ The World Bank

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Crunching numbers for low carbon transport in Asia - Sudhir Gota - Lee Schipper Scholar - Transforming Transportation 2014 - EMBARQ The World Bank

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Crunching numbers for low carbon transport in Asia - Sudhir Gota - Lee Schipper Scholar - Transforming Transportation 2014 - EMBARQ The World Bank

  1. 1. Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia! !   Presented at Transforming Transportation 2014! !   Sudhir Gota! !   Lee Schipper Scholar (2013)! Transforming Transportation 2014!
  2. 2. Crunching Numbers for Low Carbon Transport in Asia Sudhir Gota Lee Schipper Scholar (2013) Transforming Transportation 16 January 2014 Washington,D.C.   Lee  Schipper  1947-­‐2011  
  3. 3. Common sense ? Brazil = 40-50 million vehicles emits 148 MT of CO2 India = 90-100 million vehicles emits 145 MT of CO2 “Top-down is accurate while bottom-up estimates unreliable especially in countries with limited data” Research objective - How to improve credibility and consistency of bottom-up modelling in Asia?
  4. 4. The Great Indian Mismatch 350 315 300 Bottom-­‐up   M Tons of CO2 250 200 161 150 145 Top-­‐down   100 50 0 1960 Gasoline   1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
  5. 5. The Great Indian ‘Diesel’ Mismatch 100 90 80 Bottom-­‐up   70 60 40 calibration   MTOE 50 30 20 Official  Data   10 0 1980 Revised  Official   1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Poor data and insights cost - 3-10 billion USD diesel subsidy annually ‘low-hanging fruit’ : Prioritize data collection for Diesel vehicles   2010 2015
  6. 6. It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines? 250 GDP/Capita   200 Vehicles   150 Road  Transport   Fuel   Consumption   100 50 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Department of Energy claims ‘reduction’ due to “Impact of policies”
  7. 7. It’s more ‘efficiency’ in the Philippines? 140 120 100 CO2   2-3X Increase 80 60 DOE 2030 Target Bottom-up 40 20 Top Down 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 “33%” of fuel sold in the Philippines is smuggled costing 1 billion USD loss of revenues Top Down estimates are not realistic with ground conditions and aggressive policies are needed to reach 2030 goals.
  8. 8. Cost of “Doing Nothing” in Projects Impact of the project is compared with a 'no build' / 'without project'/ 'doing nothing' baseline. Ahmedabad   Cebu   Guangzhou   Pimpri   2500   Chennai   Bangalore   Ho  Chi  Minh   Manila     2000   1500   1000   500   0   MRT  Costs  (million  USD)   Avoided  Infrastructure  Costs  (million  USD)   avoided road space for a BRT is 2 m2 per rider and Metro is 3 m2per rider. Baseline - what would 'most likely' happen if this project is not executed
  9. 9. Thanks  to   Lee  Schipper,  Lee  Schipper  Memorial  Scholarship  for  Sustainable   Transport  and  Energy,Embarq  and  Clean  Air  Asia   Car  that  absorbs  its  own  carbon  does  not  need  oil  or  cause  congestion?    

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