9. Consequences of earthquakes for the US
Event
Previous
Deaths
Economic Loss
1989 Loma Prieta
62
$10 billion
1994 Northridge
57
$20 billion
1995 Kobe Japan
>5,500
$250 billion
10. Consequences of earthquakes for the US
Event
1989 Loma Prieta
62
$10 billion
57
$20 billion
1995 Kobe Japan
Projected
Economic Loss
1994 Northridge
Previous
Deaths
>5,500
$250 billion
Hayward Fault Scenario (M7)
>4,000
$100 billion
Seattle Fault Scenario (M6.7)
>1,600
$33 billion
Repeat of 1906 San Francisco
3,000 –
8,000
$200 billion
Scenario Newport-Inglewood Fault (M7)
2,000 –
6,000
$200 billion
16. Chances of Dying if a Major
Earthquake Occurs
San Francisco
1 in 1000
Istanbul
1 in 50
17. How many killers are there?
100
Percentage
80
Otani (1999)
60
40
20
0
Operational
Heavy
Kobe, 1995
Erzincan, 1992
Luzon, 1990
Mexico City, 1985
Collapse
“50% of the casualties are coming from 5% of the buildings.”
Kircher et al., 2006
18. The “Challenge”
Some
concrete buildings
constructed before the 1970’s
might be dangerous.
Where are they ?
Which ones are dangerous ?
20. The Challenge of “Reality”
These
buildings do not exist in a seismic
vacuum.
What are the economic and social
implications?
How can we develop community retrofit
programs the represent the interests of
all stakeholders?
21. Initial California OES Effort
Local representatives gather existing
information/data.
◦
◦
◦
◦
Inventories
Design and construction history
Ordinances and programs
Case histories
Assemble into accessible database
◦ Research
◦ Program development
◦ Public policy credibility
