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EENA conference
7/10/2021
Dr Chris Cocking, University of Brighton
c.cocking@brighton.ac.uk
Twitter: @DrChrisCocking
Brief intro to psychological theories of
crowd behaviour
Implications for emergency planning &
response
COVID pandemic
From irrationalist tradition
Threat causes emotion to overwhelm reason
Collective identity breaks down
Selfish behaviours- pushing, trampling
Contagion- behaviours spread uncritically to
crowd as a whole
 Mass emergencies seen as potential public
order problem & emergency planning
strategy can reflect this
 Info withheld from public to prevent ‘panic’
 Allegations that Trump initially downplayed
COVID threat to avoid ‘panic’
 Public seen as problem rather than potential
resource to draw from
Mass emergencies create emergent common identity in
response to shared threat
 ‘we’re all in this together’
Orderly, altruistic behaviour as people confront common
threat
Co-operative rather than selfish behaviour
Lack of co-operation usually due to physical/structural
constraints and/or being cast in competition with each other
Supported by research into emergencies
 Drury et al (2009a& b); Drury (2018) Drury et al (2019)
Rhetorical nature of resilience in national
emergencies
Resilience shouldn’t be excuse for not taking
public protection seriously/cutting post disaster
support
Resilience doesn’t mean absence of distress/
disruption, but ability to bounce back (or
forward) if enabled to do so
Vital to have shared sense of exposure to
adversity, otherwise ‘we’re all in it together’
becomes empty rhetoric
 Collective responses to COVID often pathologized but solidarity &
cooperation common in emergencies could be solution to current
pandemic & collective psychology should guide COVID policy
 Need to encourage shared identity & trust public’s ability to self-
regulate through new social norms
 Encouraging collective compliance more effective than enforcement
 Social (physical) distancing necessary, but vital to maintain sense of
psychological connection & try to prevent social isolation (esp.
vulnerable population)
 ‘Together Apart’ Jetten et al 2020
 Effective public messaging vital
 If public trusts information given & identify with sources then more likely to
comply with necessary restrictions
 More ‘we-speak’ needed
 not ‘will I survive’ but ‘how do we all get through this’
• Classic example of social dilemma
• ‘Rational’ behaviour for individual may not be in collective interest
 People stockpiling food in advance of expected lockdown could be
seen as sensible planning
 But problematic for ‘just in time’ supply chains
 Labelling this as ‘irrational’ obscures understanding of such
behaviour
 Media reporting of ‘panic-buying’ quickly becomes self-fulfilling
prophesy
 Encourage common ID & cooperative social norms
 ‘Enough for everyone if you just buy what you need’
 Trusted figures (nurses) discouraging stockpiling
 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1241767514868264971
 Consistency in messaging crucial
 Original message clear
 ‘Stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives’
 Delivered by trusted source that people could ID with
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cK02XwUogM
 Initial compliance rates during 1st phase much higher than expected by
authorities
 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/197835/mobile-data-shows-high-
compliance-with/
 Fears of ‘behavioural fatigue’ rejected in pre-lockdown predictions by
myself & other behavioural scientists
 https://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-
and-social-psychology.html
 Newsnight investigation 30/7 vindicates this view
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfGZGgE3zX0&t=46s
 Post 10/5 restrictions eased in England
 Message becomes less clear
 Stay alert, control the virus, save lives
 Devolved UK Governments keep original slogan
 Cummings scandal & perception of differential experiences of
pandemic damages shared ID & threatens public compliance
with lockdown restrictions
 My article for the Psychologist in May 2020
 https://thepsychologist.bps.org.uk/resilience-requires-those-authority-be-
honest-open-and-consistent
 ‘one of the worst things leaders can do in terms of trust
is to start to blame others when things go wrong’
 Susan Michie (SPI-B) 20/9/20
 Behaviour often much better than expected
 Public not the weakest link
 Young People demonised for not following restrictions
 Media often skews story
 more newsworthy to show people partying rather than staying at home &
obeying lockdown restrictions!
 Risks creating psychological out-groups & self-fulfilling prophesy
 When pandemic hit in 2020, social psychologists said until
vaccine appears, there’s work for us to do- but we were wrong &
we’re still busy!
 Social psychological input still vital once vaccine arrives
 Vaccine doesn’t work in isolation- people need to be persuaded to take
it
 Precautions still necessary when vaccinated & if restrictions eased too
early, countries can end up back in lockdown
 Need to engage with ‘vaccine hesitant’ communities
 Don’t demonise as ‘anti-vaxxers’, ‘covidiots’ etc
 Address valid concerns that some communities may have
 British Asian celebrities video addressing vaccine myths (in group
messengers often more effective)
 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55809355
 Vaccine passports?
 Concerns that this could create 2 tier society, increase anger & reduce
vaccine uptake amongst the very communities that we need to work
with
 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/07/covid-passports-
good-idea-government-damaging
 Boris Johnson’s press conferences & national TV addresses
often take coercive, instructive line with emphasis on those
breaching guidelines
 Need more facilitative approach to encourage mass
compliance with lockdown restrictions
 ‘Like a headmaster talking to naughty school children’ Cocking 2020
 https://twitter.com/DrChrisCocking/status/1316690361541185537
 PM contrasted with Nicola Sturgeon’s approach encouraging
partnership with public
 https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1308668885453987841
 NZ PM Jacinda Ardern praised for good leadership during
pandemic
 Less coercive & more facilitative/ inclusive approach
 More empathic, open to questions & encourages more collective
responsibility for crisis
 https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-jacinda-arderns-
coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-crisis-leadership-135541
 https://www.thenational.scot/news/18430642.covid-19-shocking-video-
shows-uk-new-zealand-differed/
 NZ has one of world’s lowest COVID infection rates
 4162 cases & 27 deaths by 25/9/21
 Comparison of UK July 21‘Freedom day’ with situation in NZ
https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1428009799673860102
 Irrationalist models of crowd behaviour out-dated &
unsupported by current evidence
 ‘Panic’ models shouldn’t be used in emergency response and/or
COVID pandemic
 Collective resilience more likely response
 Public need to be trusted more in current pandemic
 Clear, consistent messages about COVID related restrictions from
trusted sources with rationale more likely to encourage compliance
 Competitive/ individualised behaviour best addressed by
effective public information campaigns that appeal to shared
identity
 Also need less sensationalist media reporting!
 British Psychological Society COVID resources
 https://www.bps.org.uk/coronavirus-resources
 Independent Sage briefings on COVID-19 13.30 each Friday
 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqqwC56XTP8F9zeEUCOttPQ
 Public Health England COVID-19 pages
 https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-
england
 Sage Pandemic Influenza Behavioural group (SPI-B)
 https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/independent-scientific-
pandemic-influenza-group-on-behaviours-spi-b
 University of Sussex Groups & COVID research
 https://www.sussex.ac.uk/research/projects/groups-and-covid/
 Cocking, C. (2013). The role of "zero-responders" during 7/7: Implications for the Emergency Services.
International Journal of the Emergency Services, 2 (2) 79-93.
 Cocking, C. & Drury, J. (2013) Talking about Hillsborough: ‘Panic’ as discourse in survivors’ accounts of the 1989
football stadium disaster. Journal of Community and Applied Social Psychology. DOI: 10.1002/casp.2153.
 Cocking, C (2016) ‘Collective Resilience and social support in the face of adversity- evidence from Social
Psychology’ in Kumar, U (ed.) 'Routledge International Handbook of Psychosocial Resilience'. Routledge, Taylor &
Francis: UK
 Cocking, Ntontis, Vestergren, & Luzynska (2020). Mutual Aid and enduring community support in SE England during
the COVID pandemic
 Drury, J. (2018). The role of social identity processes in mass emergency behaviour: An integrative
review. European Review of Social Psychology 29(1), 38-81.
 Drury, J. (2011). Collective resilience in mass emergencies and disasters: A social identity model. In J. Jetten, C.
Haslam, & S. A. Haslam (Eds.), The social cure: Identity, health and well-being
 Drury, J., Cocking, C., & Reicher, S. (2009a) Everyone for themselves? Understanding how crowd solidarity can
arise in an emergency: An interview study of disaster survivors. British Journal of Social Psychology 48.
 Drury, J., Cocking, C., Reicher, S. (2009b) The nature of collective ‘resilience’: Survivor reactions to the July 7th
(2005) London bombings. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 27 (1) 66-95.
 Drury, J., Carter, H., Cocking, C., Ntontis, E., Tekin Guven, S., & Amlôt, R. (2019) Facilitating collective
resilience in the public in emergencies: Twelve recommendations based on the social identity approach.
Frontiers in Public Health, 7 (141)
 Drury, Reicher & Stott (2020) COVID-19 in context: Why do people die in emergencies? It’s probably not
because of collective psychology. Special Section Paper. British Journal of Social Psychology, 59 (3) 686-93
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjso.12393
 Elcheroth, G., & Drury, J. (2020). Collective resilience in times of crisis: A summary of knowledge and
derived policy principles for socially effective responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. British Journal of
Social Psychology. 59 (3) 703-13. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjso.12403
 Jetten et al (2020) Together apart: the Psychology of COVID 19. https://uk.sagepub.com/en-
gb/eur/together-apart/book275359
 Ntontis, E. et al. (2020). International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 45
 Solnit, R. (2010). A paradise built in hell: The extraordinary communities that arise in disaster. London:
Penguin.
 SPI-B (2020a) Risk of public disorder, 25 February 2020. Return by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on
Behaviours (SPI-B) to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) on the risk of public disorder.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-b-risk-of-public-disorder-25-february-2020
 SPI-B (2020b) Background paper: Behavioural Principles for updating guidance to minimise population
transmission - 20 April 2020.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895857/S05
39_Behavioural_principles_for_updating_guidance_to_minimise_population_transmission.pdf
 Wilson, S. (2020). Pandemic leadership: Lessons from New Zealand’s approach to COVID19. Leadership, 16(3), 279–
293

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EENA conference: Psychological theories of crowd behaviour and implications for emergency planning

  • 1. EENA conference 7/10/2021 Dr Chris Cocking, University of Brighton c.cocking@brighton.ac.uk Twitter: @DrChrisCocking
  • 2. Brief intro to psychological theories of crowd behaviour Implications for emergency planning & response COVID pandemic
  • 3. From irrationalist tradition Threat causes emotion to overwhelm reason Collective identity breaks down Selfish behaviours- pushing, trampling Contagion- behaviours spread uncritically to crowd as a whole
  • 4.  Mass emergencies seen as potential public order problem & emergency planning strategy can reflect this  Info withheld from public to prevent ‘panic’  Allegations that Trump initially downplayed COVID threat to avoid ‘panic’  Public seen as problem rather than potential resource to draw from
  • 5. Mass emergencies create emergent common identity in response to shared threat  ‘we’re all in this together’ Orderly, altruistic behaviour as people confront common threat Co-operative rather than selfish behaviour Lack of co-operation usually due to physical/structural constraints and/or being cast in competition with each other Supported by research into emergencies  Drury et al (2009a& b); Drury (2018) Drury et al (2019)
  • 6. Rhetorical nature of resilience in national emergencies Resilience shouldn’t be excuse for not taking public protection seriously/cutting post disaster support Resilience doesn’t mean absence of distress/ disruption, but ability to bounce back (or forward) if enabled to do so Vital to have shared sense of exposure to adversity, otherwise ‘we’re all in it together’ becomes empty rhetoric
  • 7.  Collective responses to COVID often pathologized but solidarity & cooperation common in emergencies could be solution to current pandemic & collective psychology should guide COVID policy  Need to encourage shared identity & trust public’s ability to self- regulate through new social norms  Encouraging collective compliance more effective than enforcement  Social (physical) distancing necessary, but vital to maintain sense of psychological connection & try to prevent social isolation (esp. vulnerable population)  ‘Together Apart’ Jetten et al 2020  Effective public messaging vital  If public trusts information given & identify with sources then more likely to comply with necessary restrictions  More ‘we-speak’ needed  not ‘will I survive’ but ‘how do we all get through this’
  • 8. • Classic example of social dilemma • ‘Rational’ behaviour for individual may not be in collective interest  People stockpiling food in advance of expected lockdown could be seen as sensible planning  But problematic for ‘just in time’ supply chains  Labelling this as ‘irrational’ obscures understanding of such behaviour  Media reporting of ‘panic-buying’ quickly becomes self-fulfilling prophesy  Encourage common ID & cooperative social norms  ‘Enough for everyone if you just buy what you need’  Trusted figures (nurses) discouraging stockpiling  https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1241767514868264971
  • 9.  Consistency in messaging crucial  Original message clear  ‘Stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives’  Delivered by trusted source that people could ID with  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cK02XwUogM  Initial compliance rates during 1st phase much higher than expected by authorities  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/197835/mobile-data-shows-high- compliance-with/  Fears of ‘behavioural fatigue’ rejected in pre-lockdown predictions by myself & other behavioural scientists  https://dontpaniccorrectingmythsaboutthecrowd.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus- and-social-psychology.html  Newsnight investigation 30/7 vindicates this view  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfGZGgE3zX0&t=46s
  • 10.  Post 10/5 restrictions eased in England  Message becomes less clear  Stay alert, control the virus, save lives  Devolved UK Governments keep original slogan  Cummings scandal & perception of differential experiences of pandemic damages shared ID & threatens public compliance with lockdown restrictions  My article for the Psychologist in May 2020  https://thepsychologist.bps.org.uk/resilience-requires-those-authority-be- honest-open-and-consistent
  • 11.  ‘one of the worst things leaders can do in terms of trust is to start to blame others when things go wrong’  Susan Michie (SPI-B) 20/9/20  Behaviour often much better than expected  Public not the weakest link  Young People demonised for not following restrictions  Media often skews story  more newsworthy to show people partying rather than staying at home & obeying lockdown restrictions!  Risks creating psychological out-groups & self-fulfilling prophesy
  • 12.  When pandemic hit in 2020, social psychologists said until vaccine appears, there’s work for us to do- but we were wrong & we’re still busy!  Social psychological input still vital once vaccine arrives  Vaccine doesn’t work in isolation- people need to be persuaded to take it  Precautions still necessary when vaccinated & if restrictions eased too early, countries can end up back in lockdown  Need to engage with ‘vaccine hesitant’ communities  Don’t demonise as ‘anti-vaxxers’, ‘covidiots’ etc  Address valid concerns that some communities may have  British Asian celebrities video addressing vaccine myths (in group messengers often more effective)  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55809355  Vaccine passports?  Concerns that this could create 2 tier society, increase anger & reduce vaccine uptake amongst the very communities that we need to work with  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/07/covid-passports- good-idea-government-damaging
  • 13.  Boris Johnson’s press conferences & national TV addresses often take coercive, instructive line with emphasis on those breaching guidelines  Need more facilitative approach to encourage mass compliance with lockdown restrictions  ‘Like a headmaster talking to naughty school children’ Cocking 2020  https://twitter.com/DrChrisCocking/status/1316690361541185537  PM contrasted with Nicola Sturgeon’s approach encouraging partnership with public  https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1308668885453987841
  • 14.  NZ PM Jacinda Ardern praised for good leadership during pandemic  Less coercive & more facilitative/ inclusive approach  More empathic, open to questions & encourages more collective responsibility for crisis  https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-jacinda-arderns- coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-crisis-leadership-135541  https://www.thenational.scot/news/18430642.covid-19-shocking-video- shows-uk-new-zealand-differed/  NZ has one of world’s lowest COVID infection rates  4162 cases & 27 deaths by 25/9/21  Comparison of UK July 21‘Freedom day’ with situation in NZ https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1428009799673860102
  • 15.  Irrationalist models of crowd behaviour out-dated & unsupported by current evidence  ‘Panic’ models shouldn’t be used in emergency response and/or COVID pandemic  Collective resilience more likely response  Public need to be trusted more in current pandemic  Clear, consistent messages about COVID related restrictions from trusted sources with rationale more likely to encourage compliance  Competitive/ individualised behaviour best addressed by effective public information campaigns that appeal to shared identity  Also need less sensationalist media reporting!
  • 16.  British Psychological Society COVID resources  https://www.bps.org.uk/coronavirus-resources  Independent Sage briefings on COVID-19 13.30 each Friday  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqqwC56XTP8F9zeEUCOttPQ  Public Health England COVID-19 pages  https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health- england  Sage Pandemic Influenza Behavioural group (SPI-B)  https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/independent-scientific- pandemic-influenza-group-on-behaviours-spi-b  University of Sussex Groups & COVID research  https://www.sussex.ac.uk/research/projects/groups-and-covid/
  • 17.  Cocking, C. (2013). The role of "zero-responders" during 7/7: Implications for the Emergency Services. International Journal of the Emergency Services, 2 (2) 79-93.  Cocking, C. & Drury, J. (2013) Talking about Hillsborough: ‘Panic’ as discourse in survivors’ accounts of the 1989 football stadium disaster. Journal of Community and Applied Social Psychology. DOI: 10.1002/casp.2153.  Cocking, C (2016) ‘Collective Resilience and social support in the face of adversity- evidence from Social Psychology’ in Kumar, U (ed.) 'Routledge International Handbook of Psychosocial Resilience'. Routledge, Taylor & Francis: UK  Cocking, Ntontis, Vestergren, & Luzynska (2020). Mutual Aid and enduring community support in SE England during the COVID pandemic  Drury, J. (2018). The role of social identity processes in mass emergency behaviour: An integrative review. European Review of Social Psychology 29(1), 38-81.  Drury, J. (2011). Collective resilience in mass emergencies and disasters: A social identity model. In J. Jetten, C. Haslam, & S. A. Haslam (Eds.), The social cure: Identity, health and well-being  Drury, J., Cocking, C., & Reicher, S. (2009a) Everyone for themselves? Understanding how crowd solidarity can arise in an emergency: An interview study of disaster survivors. British Journal of Social Psychology 48.  Drury, J., Cocking, C., Reicher, S. (2009b) The nature of collective ‘resilience’: Survivor reactions to the July 7th (2005) London bombings. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters, 27 (1) 66-95.
  • 18.  Drury, J., Carter, H., Cocking, C., Ntontis, E., Tekin Guven, S., & Amlôt, R. (2019) Facilitating collective resilience in the public in emergencies: Twelve recommendations based on the social identity approach. Frontiers in Public Health, 7 (141)  Drury, Reicher & Stott (2020) COVID-19 in context: Why do people die in emergencies? It’s probably not because of collective psychology. Special Section Paper. British Journal of Social Psychology, 59 (3) 686-93 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjso.12393  Elcheroth, G., & Drury, J. (2020). Collective resilience in times of crisis: A summary of knowledge and derived policy principles for socially effective responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. British Journal of Social Psychology. 59 (3) 703-13. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjso.12403  Jetten et al (2020) Together apart: the Psychology of COVID 19. https://uk.sagepub.com/en- gb/eur/together-apart/book275359  Ntontis, E. et al. (2020). International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 45  Solnit, R. (2010). A paradise built in hell: The extraordinary communities that arise in disaster. London: Penguin.  SPI-B (2020a) Risk of public disorder, 25 February 2020. Return by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) on the risk of public disorder. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-b-risk-of-public-disorder-25-february-2020  SPI-B (2020b) Background paper: Behavioural Principles for updating guidance to minimise population transmission - 20 April 2020. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/895857/S05 39_Behavioural_principles_for_updating_guidance_to_minimise_population_transmission.pdf  Wilson, S. (2020). Pandemic leadership: Lessons from New Zealand’s approach to COVID19. Leadership, 16(3), 279– 293