Development of ‘Resilience Scale’ to measure Resilience Towards Adverse Weather Events Among Different Social Groups

1. ICAR-NATIONAL DAIRY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
EASTERN REGIONAL STATION
A-12, Kalyani-Nadia-741235, West Bengal
Development of ‘Resilience Scale’ to measure Resilience
Towards Adverse Weather Events Among Different
Social Groups
Dr. Asif Mohammad
Sr. Scientist

2. Introduction
Indian agriculture can be best explained as Complex,
Diversified and Risk prone (CDR).
Over 60 percent of the world’s food is produced on rain-fed
farms
28 percent of the geographical area of India is vulnerable to
drought
If ‘M’ is the mean or normal seasonal rainfall and ‘d’ the
mean deviation from normal during the period of years
The actual rainfall is less than (M-2d) is defined as a
‘Drought’
Actual rainfall happens to be more than (M+2d) is called a
’Flood’

3. Consequences of drought and flood on agriculture
Top soil is eroded due to exposure to air and water
Crop growth, carrying capacity of livestock and yield of
crops are adversely affected by drought and flood
Desertification of vast area of land due to drought and
deposition of sands on the top soil due to flood
Famine as a result of drought and flood is most common
Mass migration due to drought/ flood
Outbreak of several diseases, epidemic and malnutrition

4. Incidences of drought
Station Mild Moderate Severe
Shantiniketan 1974, 1981, 1983,
1991, 1996, 2001
1976, 1979, 1985,
1987,
2003, 2005
1982, 1992
Bankura 1974, 1977, 1983,
1986, 1994, 1996,
1998, 2001,2005
1975, 1976, 1981,
1982, 2000
1979,1 980
Purulia 1970, 1974-1975,
1980-81, 1989,
1991, 1997, 1999,
2001
1976, 1983, 1988 1972, 1979, 1982
Midnapore 1973, 1975, 1980,
1982,1991-92,
1995, 2003-04
1979, 1996-98,
2000
1976, 1983
Kar et.al (2012) Analysis of Meteorological Drought: The Scenario of West
Bengal. Indian Journal of Spatial Science. 3(2):1-11

5. • According to National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA) cyclone prone district of
West Bengal are Howrah, Midnapore North
24-pargana, South 24-pargana
(http://www.ndma.gov.in/images/cyclones/c
yclonepronedistrict.pdf)
Cyclone prone districts of West Bengal

6. Month-wise frequency of Cyclonic Storms in
Sunderbans during 1909-2009
Month Jan Feb Mar Apl May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total
Less Severe 5 1 4 19 31 36 40 26 27 54 57 27 327
Severe 2 1 2 8 21 5 9 2 10 22 24 11 121
(Source: Chakraborty, S. (2015)Investigating the Impact of Severe Cyclone
Aila and the Role of Disaster Management Department - A Study of Kultali
Block of Sundarban. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Business.
1(1): 6-13)

7. • Cyclone Aila affects agriculture in
Sunderbans
(http://www.deccanherald.com dated 30
May, 2010)
 A year after Cyclone Aila ripped
through the Sunderbans, thousands of
hectares of once fertile agricultural land
adjoining the mangrove forests have
turned into a vast wasteland.
 The salinity in the soil has snatched
away other means of livelihood -- animal
husbandry and pisciculture -- from the
poor villagers.
 Severe cyclones increased by 26% over
past 120 years Secondary Impacts:
Increase in soil salinity, higher tidal
surges, damages to lives and livelihood
(Singh et all 2002, Mausam)

8. • Impact of Cyclone AILA
• Disaster Type- Cyclone induced storm surge, flood
• Damaged Area- Coastal area of Bangladesh, West-
Bengal of India
• Fatalities/Missing- Over 210
• Injured- Over 800
• Affected- Several millions allegedly were affected
and 500,000 lost home
(Source: International Flood Network secretariat/
Infrastructure Development Institute-Japan
June 24, 2009)

9. Research
Methodology

10. Sampling plan
West Bengal
Coastal saline
Soil zone
Block-I
20 tribal farmers
20 non-tribal
farmers
Block-II
20 non-tribal
farmers
20 tribal farmers
Red and lateritic
soil zone
Block-I
20 non-tribal
farmers
20 tribal farmers
Block-II
20 non tribal
farmers
20 Tribal
farmers

11. Steps in construction of “Resilience
scale”
(a) Collection of items
(b) Editing the statements
(c) Response to raw statements
(d) Item analysis

12. Calculation of t value
Where

13. • Reliability of the scale
• Validity of scale

14. Selected items with item numbers
Item no. Item t-value
1 When I face natural disaster I cannot take prompt action 4.35
2 I always save money to adjust losses due to natural disaster. 4.98
3 When I face adverse weather events I can easily find out the way out of it 4.86
4 I am a very disciplined person 4.00
5 Keeping busy myself in farming is the most important thing for me 4.22
6 I feel frustrated when I face losses in farm business 6.15
7 Outcome of adverse weather events make me nervous. 3.43
8 I am always prepared to face adverse weather events 4.57
9 My friends will stand by my side in difficult times. 4.69
10 I have less self confidence to face the challenge of adverse weather events alone. 3.62
11 During adverse weather events other farmer takes my assistance 4.10
12 During hard times my family is my biggest strength. 3.53
13 I always find-out brighter side of any incidence. 5.06
14 I always take interest on weather forecast 5.08

16. Dimensions along with underlying items
Adverse weather preparedness dimension
When I face adverse weather events I can easily find out the way
out of it
Outcome of adverse weather events make me nervous.
I am always prepared to face adverse weather events
I have less self confidence to face the challenge of adverse weather
events alone.
I always save money to adjust losses due to natural disaster.
I always take interest on weather forecast

17. Peer Support and recognition dimension
During adverse weather events other farmer takes my
assistance
My friends will stand by my side in difficult times.
During hard times my family is my biggest strength.

18. Pessimistic attitudinal dimension
When I face natural disaster I cannot take prompt action
I feel frustrated when I face losses in farm business
Optimistic attitudinal dimension
I am a very disciplined person
I always find-out brighter side of any incidence.
Priority setting dimension
Keeping busy myself in farming is the most important thing for
me

19. Reliability and Validity of the Scale
• After selection and grouping of items
reliability was checked by using Cronbach’s
alpha.
• The value of Cronbach’s alpha was .851 with
14 items
• Relatively high internal consistency.
• Validity-face validity

20. Enumeration of the degree of
resilience to adverse weather
events

21. Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error
Tribal (Jhargram) 59.95 1.23 .27
Non-Tribal (Jhargram) 51.70 2.15 .48
Tribal (Birbhum) 60.25 2.09 .46
Non- Tribal (Birbhum) 50.45 2.46 .55
Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-1 54.05 4.53 1.01
Non-Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-1 53.75 3.00 .67
Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-2 54.05 4.40 .98
Non-Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-2 52.15 8.14 1.82
Resilience score

22. ANOVA (Resilience)
Sum of
Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
Between
Groups 1722.37 5 344.47 44.69 .00
Within Groups 878.55 114 7.70
Total 2600.92 119

23. Resilience
Name
Subset
1 2 3
Non- Tribal (Birbhum) 50.45
Non-Tribal (Jhargram) 51.70 51.70
Non-Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-2 52.15 52.15
Non-Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-1 53.75
Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-1 54.05
Tribal (S. 24 Pgs) Bl-2 54.05
Tribal (Jhargram) 59.95
Tribal (Birbhum) 60.25

24. Zone and group wise variation in ‘Resilience Score’
Zone Group Mean Std. Deviation N
Drought
prone zone
Tribal 60.10 1.707 40
Non Tribal 51.08 2.368 40
Total 55.59 4.983 80
Flood prone
zone
Tribal 54.05 4.414 40
Non Tribal 52.95 6.114 40
Total 53.50 5.327 80
Total
Tribal 57.07 4.508 80
Non-Tribal 52.01 4.703 80
Total 54.54 5.247 160
Variations
Zone F-value-10.66 (p<.01)
Social Group F-value-62.71 (p<.01)
Zone*Social Group F-value-38.42(p<.01)

25. Zone 1- Drought prone Group 1- Tribal
Zone 2- Flood prone Group 2- Non Tribal

26. Points to reckon with
• With increasing hardship and no alternate
livelihood resilience increase
• Diversification of farming increases resilience
• Resilience increases with higher social
integration, group integration and adherence
with social norms