Comprehensive study on application of technical indictor’s on BSE index (SENSEX)_MBA_SEM_3

1.  PREPARED BY:
DHARMESH R. CHOTALIYA (157590592109)
DHANKI D. SAMYAK (157590592110)
(MBA SEM-3)
 SUBMITTED TO:
GujaratTechnological University
 COLLEGE:
Shree H. N Shukla College of Management Studies, Rajkot

2.  Technical analysis is a financial term used to denote a
security analysis discipline for forecasting the direction of
prices through the study of past market data, primarily price
and volume.
 Predicting the price movements in stock markets has been a
major challenge for traders.
 The primary area of concern for any trader is to hit the ideal
time to buy and sell.
 Errors in stock prediction may cause many losses, so stock
prediction is always an important point of research.

3.  Technical Trading Strategies And the effect of trigger
indicators, Authors: Robin L JUNGVIKEN Erik Lindquist Tutors:
AGOSTINO MANDUCHI VIROJ , JIENWATCHARAMONGKHOL,
JÖNKÖPING May 2012.
This thesis investigates whether technical trading rules, such
as simple moving average sand trigger indicators, have a
significant effect and can generate excess return against a simple
buy and hold strategy. By using technical analysis investors have
been trying to predict and gain excess return on different markets
around the world. Even though technical analysis is used by major
banks, investment firms and for stock recommendations, the
effectiveness of technical analysis is debated.

4.  Multi-objective Optimization of Technical Stock Market Indicators
using GAs Magda B. Fayek ,Computer Eng. Dpt., Faculty of Eng.,
Cairo Univ., Giza, Egypt, Hatem M. El-Boghdadi,Computer Eng. Dpt.,
Faculty of Eng., Cairo Univ., Giza, Egypt, International Journal of
Computer Applications (0975 – 8887)Volume 68– No.20, April 2013
Recent financial researches showed that technical indicators are
useful tools for stock prediction. Technical indicators are used to
generate trading signals (buy/sell) signals. The main problem of an
indicator usage is to determine its appropriate parameters. In this paper
a new GA based technique for optimizing the parameters of a collection
of technical indicators over two objective functions Sharpe ratio and
annual profit is proposed The technique handles four indicators DEMAC
(Double Exponential Moving Average Crossovers), RSI (Relative Strength
Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and MARSI
(MovingAverage RSI) indicators.

5.  The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Random
Walkwere mostly used in the early stock market
predictions. However, the growing research critically
examined EMH from the perspective of behavioral
economics. Many studies shown that stock market
prediction do not follow a Random Walk and will
indeed to some degree to be predicted. the stock
market prediction is to be done with either technical
or fundamental indicators. The technical indicators
are quantitative measure and are obtained from the
historical data such as simple moving average,
exponential moving average etc.

6.  Comprehensive study on application of
technical indictor’s on BSE index (SENSEX)

7.  To measure market movements
 Benchmark for funds performance
 For index based derivative products
 Provide guidelines to investors to invest at
analysis of stock
 To identify the inherent technical strength and
weakness of the equity share

8.  H0= ACCORDINGTO SMATHE PERFORMANCE OF LAST
FIVEYEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS POOR
 H1=ACCORDINGTO SMATHE PERFORMANCE OF LAST
FIVEYEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS NOT POOR
 HO=ACCORDINGTO EMATHE PERFORMANCE OF LAST
FIVEYEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS POOR
 H1=ACCORDINGTO EMATHE PERFORMANCE OF LAST
FIVEYEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS NOT POOR
 HO=ACCORDINGTO RSITHE PERFORMANCE OF LAST
FIVEYEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS POOR
 H1 = ACCORDINGTO RSITHE PERFORMANCE OF LAST
FIVEYEAR BSE (SENSEX) IS NOT POOR

9.  Source Of Data : Required Data Will Be Collected
Through Secondary Sources
 Research Study : Analytical Research
 Tools &Techniques : 1. Simple moving average
2. Exponential moving average
3. Relative strength index
 Time period : Last five year data in
BSE (SENSEX)(2011- 2016)

10.  Time limited restricts the study.
 Knowledge of researcher is limited.
 Only limited data are used.
 The study only consider one variable BSE affect
the organization other variable do not consider.
 Result might not match with past research study
because of the different time period.

11.  Chapter 1 – overview of technical indictor
(SMA, EMA, RSI)
 Chapter 2 – conceptual frame work: BSE
stock market treading
 Chapter 3 – research planning procedure
 Chapter 4 – analysis & interpretation of data
 Chapter 5 – conclusion & recommendations
 Bibliography

12.  Review of literature - 07days
 Research design - 03 days
 Administration of tools & data collection - 06 days
 Data presentation & analysis & interpretation -10 days
 Report writing - 15 days
 Total 41 days will be taken by the researcher after
approval of the research proposal.

13.  Technical analysis is a technique which gives an idea about future
share prices of selected companies in which we invest.
 On the basis of the knowledge of technical analysis one can
predict the perfect investment decision of the stock market.
 Market data include the price of a share or the level of a market
index, volume (number of share traded).
 Technical analysis of stock prices of different companies gives an
idea that after the analysis the market position of share of
selected companies can be known and investor get a perfect
knowledge of investment decision.

14.  Researcher Himself
 Investor
 Analyst
 Future researcher
 Government
 Credit rating agencies

15.  This study increases the knowledge of the
researcher.
 He/she comes to know where the company or
market is weak and strong.
 And at last it is also helpful to submit this
study as a grand project as a part of MBA
study.

16. Thank