Correlation might suggest higher login rates directly lead to higher completion rates. Causation is about proving that it actually does. For more content like this, check out Acorn Labs: https://acornlms.com/enterprise-learning-management

1. L&D and the
Correlation-
Causation
Fallacy
Opinion Piece

2. Correlation vs Causation
Correlation is any statistical relationship or association
between two data sets, aka two results that occur at roughly the
same time. The key word here is any – meaning those results
can be purely coincidental and therefore unrelated.
Causation is the undeniable event in which there is a cause and
effect. A happened, so B occurred.

3. Correlation vs Causation
There’s the idea that correlation implies causation. This is rarely
the case. Correlation can be easily exploited.
If correlation implied causation, you could argue the number of
films Nicolas Cage has appeared in correlates to visitors at
Disneyland Paris.

4. Correlation in L&D
While correlation is a useful statistical technique, it shouldn’t be
used to prove return on investment (ROI) in L&D.
Why? There’s no room for loose threads when showing impact
and justifying decisions to executives.

5. Justifying Spend
L&D leaders know they need to justify spending.
Most look solely at ROI through the lens of their role,
considering traditional KPIs such as knowledge gain, time to
proficiency etc.
And only then will they use improvements on these metrics to
correlate L&D to business performance. Which – for the most
part – is quite the leap.

6. What Business Leaders Want
What business leaders want from their L&D investment is the
dial to be moved on strategically impactful metrics such as
revenue per employee, profitability, talent retention and team
effectiveness.
If you can show causation to these types of business metrics,
you become a truly strategically impactful L&D function.

7. Correlation: What’s It Good For?
Correlation is better used as a grounding point for hypothesis
testing, such as ‘Do higher log in rates this month directly cause
higher completion rates?’.
Causation is the process of proving logins lead directly to
completions.

8. Avoid Assumptions
Falling victim to the correlation fallacy can lead to ineffective
training solutions, an absence of quantifiable business impact
and the loss of the L&D budget altogether.
It's important to avoid assuming causation and use data
analytics to make informed decisions about the impact of
training on business performance.

9. Learning Technology
Learning technologies have historically focused on
retrospective analytics due to the perceived challenges of L&D
as a cost centre with limited impact.
However, this reactive approach alone is insufficient.

10. Learning Technology
The key is to gather data before learning happens, through
processes such as workforce planning gap analyses and
capability frameworks mapped to business strategy, to prove
true causation in L&D results.
By starting learning on a consistent digital platform and
gathering data from the outset, the correlation and causation
debate can be minimised, leading to better business impact
data.

11. You can learn more about this
topic by checking out the full
article:
https://acornlms.com/enterprise-learning-
management/correlation-causation