You already know that Brazil has a clean energy matrix. But what you may not be aware of is that this matrix is changing dramatically, with important consequences. This is creating a world of opportunities to other renewables sources and energy efficiency in Brazil. Are your company ready to profit from that? Presentation made at the Swiss TechnologyHuB In Brazil, august 2016

1. Challenges and Opportunities to
Renewables and Energy
Efficiency in Brazil
Cristiano Prado
Executive Director
Brazilian Association of Engineering
Consultants

2. What you already know:
Brazil has a clean eletricity matrix...
Share of Renewables in Electricity Generation in the
Leading Economies
Figures refer to 2011. Source: “The Brazilian Conundrum: More Hydropower, Greater Greenhouse Gas Emissions”

3. ...mostly based on hydroeletrical power
plants
Itaipu hydroeletrical power plant

4. But Brazil is moving from hydropower to
“termohydro” power
Source: ONS, 2014
2010
2014
Thermoelectric
Wind
Hydroeletric
Hydroeletric
WindThermoelectric

5. And It is a structural movement:
All H.E . power plants under construction are “Run of River”
 Smaller flood area
 Small reservoir
Consequence #1:
New H.E. Power plants will not generate energy in the dry
season. Others sources will need to complement the
generation

6. And It is a structural movement:
Consequence #2:
Loss of Regularization Capacity
Source: “The Brazilian Conundrum: More Hydropower, Greater Greenhouse Gas Emissions”

7. And It is a structural movement:
Consequence #2’:
DRAMATIC loss of Regularization Capacity
=> Either the National Operator (ONS) will accept the higher risk
of water shortage or will increase other sources generation to
raise the average storage levels
Source: The Brazilian Conundrum: More Hydropower, Greater Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2001 2013 2022*
Average (66.6%) 4.18 3.20 2.20
Highest (88.8%) 5.57 4.27 2.93
Full (100%) 6.27 4.81 3.30
Effective Regularization
Capacity (months)Reservoirs Storage
Levels

8. Which one(s)?
Other source(s) of energy generation (ex-hydro)
will necessarily increase.
2014
Thermoelectric
Wind
Hydroeletric
Source: ONS, 2014

9. Brazil’s skyrocketing energy price
* estimate. Source: How much does the eletric energy for the Brazilian industry cost? (Quanto custa a energia elétrica para a indústria no Brasil – www.quantocustaenergia.com.br)

10. Electric energy cost for the industry – selected countries
(March 2015) US$/MWh
International average
146.4 US$/MWh
Source: How much does the eletric energy for the Brazilian industry cost? (Quanto custa a energia elétrica para a indústria no Brasil – www.quantocustaenergia.com.br)
Brazil’s skyrocketing energy price
2.5 x 3.8 x1.5 x

11. • Thermoeletrical (fossil) energy generation is 5,6 times more
expensive than hydroletrical generation. GHG emissions are
infinitely higher
• Energy cost is reaching prohibitive levels in Brazil – and will
continue to climb in next years
• COP 21 effects
•The label of green electricity matrix is valuable for the country
• National incentives to increase wind generation and distributed
generation
Consider:

12. 22 MW
2003
602 MW
2009
1,000 MW
2011 2015
8,400 MW
2024
24,000* MW
* Estimate. Source: Aneel 2016
Brazil: Installed wind power capacity

13. 3
75
424
1,747
2,207
200,000*
1,200,000*
Dec.12
Dec, 13
Dec. 14
Dec. 15
Fev. 16
2019
2024
Brazil: Distributed energy
# of grid connections
Source: Aneel 2016

14. Global Energy Efficiency Ranking
(23 countries)

15. Brazil is on the verge of a “Big Bang”
in renewables and efficiency energy

16. Thank you
Cristiano Prado
Executive Director
Brazilian Association of Engineering Consultants
crprado@abceconsultoria.org.br