Technologies & policies for a sustainable energy future keynote by dr. marilyn brown


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Technologies & policies for a sustainable energy future keynote by dr. marilyn brown

  1. 1. Marilyn Brown Professor of Energy Policy Georgia Institute of Technology Technologies and Policies for a Sustainable Energy Future Memphis and Shelby County Sustainability Summit June 26, 2013 1 From the global… …to the local
  2. 2. Emerging Economies will Increasingly Steer Global Energy Markets Global energy demand will rise by one-third over the next 25 years. Rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East are driving the increase. Source: International Energy Agency. 2012. World Energy Outlook. Share of Global Energy Demand 2 U.S. 19% U.S. 13% U.S. 30%
  3. 3. Many Countries Will Increase their Oil and Gas Import Dependency, but not the US The US may become a major oil and gas exporter. What will be the fate of alternative energy? Source: International Energy Agency. 2012. World Energy Outlook. 3
  4. 4. The Door is Closing on 450 ppm CO2 (or a 2°C Rise in Global Temperatures) Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions of the 450 Scenario are already “locked-in” by existing capital stock Source: International Energy Agency. 2011. World Energy Outlook. World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Scenario 4
  5. 5. In the Southeast, Annual Average Temperature Has Risen about 2°F since 1970 Accelerated warming is forecast for the Southeast. Source: 5
  6. 6. Energy Footprints and GDP Source: Energy Information Administration Japan U.S. Russia U.K. China South Korea Australia 6
  7. 7. US Energy Efficiency (The Blue Wedge): The Largest Energy Resource Since 1973-74 The Energy Efficiency of the US Economy Has Improved 7 0 50 100 150 200 250 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 QuadsofTotalPrimaryEnergy Energy Service Demand Actual Energy Supply 1970 Energy Demand Energy Service Demand Adjusted for Imports Source: Skip Laitner & Steve Nadel, ACEEE, 2012.
  8. 8. Opportunities for US Energy Efficiency Improvements Abound Cost of Conserved Energy= the additional cost that must be invested to implement energy-savings. Source: National Academy of Sciences. 2009.8
  9. 9. Policies are Needed to Deliver Efficiency US Supply Curve for Electricity Efficiency Resources Source: Wang & Brown, 2013 9
  10. 10. The Impact of Affluence and Cheap Energy: A Rebound Effect? “Now that we have a heat pump, we can afford a plasma TV and lots of lighting.” 10
  11. 11. You Can’t Manage what you Can’t Measure Many meters allow frequent data collection and bi-directional communication:  Enables dynamic pricing  Can interface with in-home or in-office displays of online consumption information ZigBee Rate saver Google Power Meter Energy Orbs signal expensive & inexpensive times to use energy 11 11
  12. 12. Automatic Home Temperature Adaptation • Contains sensors for temperature, humidity, activity, light • Controlled through rotating ring on outside and pushing on the front (á la iPod) • Automatically learns user behavior • Doesn’t heat/cool when no one is home • WiFi-enabled; control from computer, cell phone • Detailed usage summaries available online • $250 before installation; available directly from Nest and Amazon, Apple Store, Best Buy, Lowe’s, Home Depot,… Nest thermostat 12 12
  13. 13. EIA forecasts that non-hydro renewable generation will triple by 2040, with wind, biomass, and solar dominating. Source: EIA, 2013 Non-hydro renewable generation (billion kWh/year) The US Green Economy is Progressing, But What about the Bonanza of Cheap Natural Gas? 13 ≈5% ≈12%
  14. 14. States with Renewable Electricity Standards Source: Brown and Sovacool. 2011. Fig. 7.4
  15. 15. Distributed generation (wind, solar, CHP…): Promising alternatives to central generation  Regulatory barriers  Input-based emissions standards  Grid access difficulties,…  Financial barriers  Access to credit and project competition within firms  Purchase power agreements,…  Information and workforce barriers  Workforce engineering know- how,… CHP Power Plant Boiler ELECTRICITY HEAT Traditional System CHP System 45- 49% 75- 80% Efficiency Efficiency Policy options are available to tackle these barriers. 15
  16. 16. Each GW of installed CHP capacity creates and maintains ≈2,000-3,000 full-time equivalent jobs throughout the lifetime of the system. The Job Generation Benefits of Expanding Industrial Cogeneration Job Coefficients by Sector (Jobs per Million of Expenditures, in $2009) 16 14.5 19.8 6.6 5.7 7.4 15.5 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 CHP Construction and Installation CHP Operation & Maintenance-Non Fuel Natural Gas Electricity Coal & Petroleum Re-spending of Utility Bill Savings Induced Impact Construction & Installation Operation & Maintenance Energy Production (Natural Gas)
  17. 17. Myths can be Powerful Tools for Sustaining the Status Quo  “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” -- Mark Twain  Illuminate energy myths and misperceptions  understand the belief systems that underpin them  explain the region’s private investments and public policies and foster productive public debate. 15
  18. 18. Results 16 Most of this analysis is discussed in a 2012 article:
  19. 19. Myth 1: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Themselves Cannot Meet the South’s Growing Electricity Demand. “With no readily available economic alternatives on the horizon, fossil fuels will continue to supply most of the world’s energy needs for the foreseeable future.” -- Lee Raymond, Former CEO of ExxonMobil, 1997 “….people are going to find ways to use energy more efficiently …. But don’t count on them using less energy….” -- John Tireney New York Times, 2o11 Fact: EE can offset the increase in future electricity demand in the South. Energy Consumption in Residential/Commercial/Industrial Sectors in the South 17
  20. 20. Myth 2: The South does not have sufficient renewable energy resources to meet a Federal Renewable Electricity Standard. “Georgia simply doesn’t have the wind, solar or biomass resources required to meet proposed new federal regulations for renewable energy generation.” -- The Atlanta Journal- Constitution, 2009 “We can't meet the targets in the Southeast.” -- Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina (The New York Times, 2010) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Reference RES RE+RES EERE+RES BillionkWh Non-Renewable Renewables 12% 28% 27% 22% Fact: With coordinated EE and RE policies, the South could comply with an RES goal without a rate penalty. Renewable Resources as a Percentage of Electricity Generation in the South in 2030 18
  21. 21. Grounds for Optimism • Most of the 2050 physical plant is not yet built – with growth comes opportunity. • Natural gas and renewables could be mutually supportive. • Our economy could profit from an EE “makeover” so that we can export gas to foreign markets willing to pay a premium for it. 24
  22. 22. Grounds for Optimism • Carbon emissions have just begun to be priced & regulated in certain markets – these “market signals” will spur innovation and “low-carbon” energy decisions. • Our current energy system could be made much more efficient – creating jobs and reducing imports, while also reducing GHG emissions and water consumption. 25
  23. 23. For More Information Dr. Marilyn A. Brown, Professor Georgia Institute of Technology School of Public Policy Atlanta, GA 30332-0345 Climate and Energy Policy Lab: 26