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Suborbital Space - Telespazio VEGA Deutschland
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David J. Salt - Senior Consultant - 13th Reinventing Space Conference
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Suborbital Space - Telespazio VEGA Deutschland
1.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 Telespazio VEGA Deutschland COULD REUSABLE AIR-LAUNCH BREAK THE SPACE ACCESS PARADIGM? 13th Reinventing Space Conference 9-12 November 2015 Oxford, UK David J. Salt - Senior Consultant
2.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 2 PRESENTATION OVERVIEW The Current Space Access Paradigm The Reusability Dilemma The Potential for Air-Launch Assessing Market Size & Elasticity An RLV Conceptual Design The Business Case Analysis Future Potentials Conclusions Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
3.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 3 THE SPACE ACCESS DILEMMA Space access is expensive… the price to get into low Earth orbit is on the order of $10,000/kg because current launcher vehicles are extremely expensive to operate Expendables (e.g. Ariane 5) throw away expensive hardware Repairables (i.e. Shuttle) take too much time/effort to turn-around Fully reusable launchers with airline-like operations could lower the cost of space access by at least an order of magnitude (less than $1,000/kg) but… the estimated cost to develop such vehicles is $10-20 billion current markets are insufficient to reach flight rates that would justify such a cost because… space access is expensive! Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? The Current Space Access Paradigm THE CURRENT SPACE PARADIGM Growth of space activities is slow or even stagnant compared to the rapid developments in the first two decades of the ‘Space Age’ government programmes face cut-backs and/or cancellation due to major constraints on government discretionary spending commercial space activities are limited to working with ‘photons’ rather than ‘atoms’ because of the space launch dilemma
4.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 4 THE POTENTIAL FOR ‘DISRUPTION’ The current paradigm is very unlikely to overcome these limits to growth, especially if current launch markets remain ‘inelastic’ lower prices stimulate only limited market growth and, worse still, result in a significant decrease in total yearly revenue! One way to break the dilemma may be to stimulate new markets with better elasticity that can be serviced by smaller/cheaper vehicles Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? The Current Space Access Paradigm IS THERE A POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH? Perspective: The 2014 global space revenue was $330 billion, which is less than the annual revenue of one large commercial company (e.g. $476 billion for Wal-Mart in 2014) World airline revenues in 2014 were $743 billion Lufthansa’s revenue in 2014 was $25 billion Question: Without another major government initiative like Apollo, how can we encourage and/or create new space markets?
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© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 5 The Reusability Dilemma ADVANTAGES OF REUSABILITY Reusability promises to improve space access by enabling: major reductions in marginal costs, as expensive components tend not to be discarded after use; better amortization of investments, as costs can be spread across more users; higher reliability and safety, due to the intrinsic value of the vehicle. Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? OVERHEADS OF REUSABILITY Compared to an ELV with equivalent payload performance, reusability forces significant additional design and operational requirements via: more robust structures and propulsion, plus the addition of systems for recovery (TPS, landing gear, etc.) and maintenance (access ports, interfaces, etc.); the need for additional testing at all levels (i.e. component, unit, system, in-flight) to verify both safety and reliability; additional equipment/facilities/personnel to both return the vehicle back to the launch site and then perform all necessary refurbishment/maintenance. These factors are critical as they must be less than ELV production cost in order to ensure the RLV can be in any way competitive
6.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 6 The Reusability Dilemma THE BASIC TRADE-OFF: EXPENDABLE – VS – REUSABLE Total System Cost Total System Launches ELV Ops. Cost RLV Ops. Cost RLV Dev. Cost Critical Market Size Choose RLVChoose ELV ELV Dev. Cost Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
7.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 7 The Potential for Air-Launch THE BENEFITS OF SUBSONIC AIR-LAUNCH Performance benefits rocket operations above the dense atmosphere reduce significantly both drag and gravity losses enables significant increase in engine specific impulse (Isp) by using a larger expansion ratio nozzle that would be over-expanded at lower altitudes so cause destructive instabilities Operational benefits enables operation out of existing airports with reduced launch range constraints increases launch window flexibility and orbital rendezvous opportunities up-range launch enables 1st stage to land back at base, minimising ferry flights Cost & Evolutionary benefits existing aircraft can be procured/modified at relatively low cost aircraft can be modified incrementally to increase performance (e.g. better thrust/weight/performance engines and/or introduction of in-flight LOx transfer) Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 8 The Potential for Air-Launch AIR-LAUNCH DECREASES THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURE MARGINS Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? This effect is of much greater benefit to RLV’s than ELV’s
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© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 9 Assessing Market Size & Elasticity ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND FOR HUMAN FLIGHT TO ORBIT Originally, we considered comsats to be the only real and addressable market that could justify a commercial RLV development Recent evidence suggests human passenger flights to LEO could be a far more substantial and addressable market Wealth statistics for the world’s Ultra High Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWI) used as basis for current assessment Findings from Futron study (2002AD ) then used to factor UHNWI data for: fraction of their net-worth an individual would pay for a ticket (1.5%, 5%, 10%,); likelihood that any UHNWI would purchase a ticket at a specific price point; fraction sufficiently fit to fly (61%); additional fraction who would fly if training were in US, instead of Russia (+24%); additional fraction who would fly if training were reduced from 6 to 1 month (+50%) also factored to account that only ~25% of the UHNWI wealth is held in cash Spreadsheet used to assess trends in market size/value in 2020AD Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
10.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 10 Assessing Market Size & Elasticity DEMAND ELASTICITY FOR HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT TO ORBIT Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? Due to the number of assumptions and limited nature of the population survey, great caution must be taken when interpreting these results Nevertheless, results are sufficiently encouraging to justify an assessment an RLV capable of flying a payload of 500kg (i.e. 2 humans + life support) into LEO Plots show significant elasticity: essentially linear above the $10M per ticket price point; significant growth begins below the $10M per ticket price point; growth below the $2M per ticket becomes exponential
11.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 11 An RLV Conceptual Design RLV PERFORMANCE & GROWTH POTENTIAL Scalable mass model of subsonic air-launched RLV concept used to investigate the impact of aircraft size on LEO payload performance TSTO configuration (1st stage LOx/RP + 2nd stage LOx/LH2) RLV mass/performance based on NASA/DARPA & ESA studies aircraft baseline assumed 767-300, plus 747-100 & 747-400 Mass model also used to investigate the impact of in-flight LOx transfer Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? Candidate Aircraft Cargo An-225 200t B747-400F 140t B747-100 (SCA-911) 109t A330-200 68t B767-300 52t
12.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 12 Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? SUBSONIC AIR-LAUNCHED RLV – CONCEPTUAL DESIGN An RLV Conceptual Design RLV mass model’s propellant loads enable rough sizing of tanks to assess configuration and integration issues 1.5m tank diameter to give sufficient ground clearance below the aircraft aircraft ground clearance raised 0.4m (red lines) by increasing oleo fluid/gas single LH2 (light blue) tank + LOx (green) & RP-1 (red) split to shorten stages
13.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 13 The Business Case Analysis STRUCTURE OF THE RLV BUSINESS SCENARIO Assumes a staged development of the business scenario that incorporated four key operational phases: 1a) NASA flights, over the 1st and 2nd year of service, with ticket price of $20M; 1b) Pathfinder flights, over the 1st and 2nd year of service, with a ticket price of $10M; 2) Pioneer flights, over the 3rd and 4th year of service, with a ticket price of $10M; 3) Initial Operations, in the 5th and 8th year of service, with a ticket price of $5M; 4) Routine Operations, in the 9th and 12th year of service, with a ticket price of $1M. A ramp-up of launch rates is enabled by fleet replacements/improvements: 100 flights performed by 1st fleet over first 4 years (2020 – 2023) 400 flights performed by 2nd fleet over second 4 years (2024 – 2027) 800 flights performed by 3rd fleet over third 4 years (2028 – 2031) Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Pathfinder Flights = 8 18 Pioneer Flights = 30 45 Initial Operation Flights = 60 100 120 120 Routine Operation Flights = 160 200 220 220 Flights/Year = 8 18 30 45 60 100 120 120 160 200 220 220 Seats/flight = 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Seats/year = 15 35 60 90 120 200 240 240 480 600 660 660
14.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 14 The Business Case Analysis CASH FLOW ANALYSIS OF THE RLV BUSINESS SCENARIO Fleet sales to third parties also included as single operator flight rates capture only a fraction of potential passenger pool (i.e. < 20% of 5%NW) Assuming an IRR above 20% is needed to justify the initial investment investment > $2500 million would be unacceptable with respect to this scenario Investment < $1500 million would be very acceptable! This RLV business case appears much stronger that one addressing the GEO comsats market due to the smaller vehicle and better market elasticity Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
15.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 15 Future Potentials COMMERCIAL GEO OPERATIONS A suborbital air-launched RLV with 4000kg LEO payload performance can also launch GEO comsats 40% of GEO comsat launch mass is propellant to go from GTO to GEO Operational scenario would involve launch/assembly of a kick stage to perform LEO to GEO transfer number of launches depends on satellite’s Beginning of Life (BoL) mass final launch delivers/mates satellite with kick-stage Preliminary business case analysis suggests an RLV with development costs below $1billion could be a commercially viable proposition! Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
16.
© Telespazio VEGA
Deutschland11/11/2015 16 Future Potentials LEO OPERATIONS & BEYOND… “HALFWAY TO ANYWHERE” Most space station crew and logistics transport requirements could be supported by a subsonic air-launched RLV Mass of many GEO and lunar transport elements could also be supported by this same RLV The vast majority (~80%) of mass launched to LEO will be propellant, which is infinitely divisible! ISS Servicing Vehicles LEO Mass (Mg) Soyuz (Government – Russian) 7200 Progress (Government – Russian) 7200 ATV (Government – European) 20200 HTV (Government – Japanese) 19000 Dragon (Commercial – SpaceX) 6000 Cygnus (Commercial – OSC) 4500 Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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Deutschland11/11/2015 17 Conclusions CONCLUSIONS Space activities have so far failed to achieve the great expectations set out at the dawn of the space age, over half a century ago Stimulation and growth of new markets is the key factor that will govern the development of future space activities The market for flying humans to LEO may have sufficient size and elasticity to justify the commercial development of a small subsonic air-launched RLV Evolved versions of this RLV could support new space infrastructures that would enable a major and sustainable growth of space activities This analysis serves to underscore the value of building up any space launch business in a series of small steps rather than one giant leap Although more detailed analyses are needed in order to confirm these results, they do tend to suggest that… …YES, reusable air-launch could break the space access paradigm! Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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Deutschland11/11/2015 18 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION… … ANY QUESTIONS? Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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Deutschland11/11/2015 19 SUPPLEMENTARY SLIDES Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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Deutschland11/11/2015 20 The Case for Subsonic Air-Launch MARKET ELASTICITY EVOLUTION WITH LAUNCH COST Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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Deutschland11/11/2015 21 The Potential for Air-Launch SUBSONIC AIR-LAUNCH OPERATIONS & WINDOWS Cruise to launch point has major benefits increases daily launch window opportunities reduces ‘dog-leg’ for LEO rendezvous enables in-flight LOx transfer or ‘harvesting’ Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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Deutschland11/11/2015 22 The Case for Subsonic Air-Launch ROCKET VEHICLE MOUNTING/INTERFACE OPTIONS Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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Deutschland11/11/2015 23 Supplementary Slides AIR-LAUNCH MODEL INFO. Wing & TPS Mass: Scales directly with materials factor (S) and the change, with respect to the baseline, in the sum of Fuselage, Tank, Systems, and Engine masses (Ms3 + Ms4 + Ms5 + Ms6). Fuselage Mass: Scales directly with materials factor (S) and the change, with respect to the baseline, in the propellant tank mass (Ms4). Tank Mass: Scales directly with materials factor (S) and the change, with respect to the baseline, in the propellant mass (Mf) raised to the power of 2/3. Systems & Engine Mass: Scales directly with the change in the propellant mass (Mf), with respect to the baseline. RLV Design & Mission 1 Baseline mission delta-v to 400km LEO = 7820 m/s 2 Delta-v loss: 1750 m/s from sea-level; 850 m/s from 10km 3 Existing rocket engines (e.g. Merlin 1C & RL10A-4-2) 4 Oxydised/Fuel ratio: 2.28 for LOx/RP; 5.24 for LOx/LH2 5 Isp: 450s @10km for LOx/LH2; 300s @10km for LOx/RP 6 Current available structural materials (i.e. TRL 6+) 7 TPS mass: 5% Booster dry mass; 20% Orbiter dry mass 8 Wings + Empennage + body flap: 7% dry mass ACES Characteristics [RD.10] 1 LOx collection plant (LCP) mass / volume = 4Mg / 6m3 2 Collection Ratio (CR) = 2.0 (i.e. 1kg LH2 => 2.0kg LOx) 3 LOx collection purity = 90% (i.e. 10% N2) 4 LOx collection rate = 9 kg/sec 5 Isp = 292s @10km for LOx/RP with 90% purity LOx 6 Isp = 435s @10km for LOx/LH2 with 90% purity LOx Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm? Separation Mach number (Mn) = 8 Materials density scaling factor (S) [%] 1.00 1.00 TSTO Booster Details TSTO Orbiter Details Specific Impulse (Isp) [sec.] 300 Specific Impulse (Isp) [sec.] 450 Rocket equation factor (R=Exp(dV/Isp/g) 2.8228 Rocket equation factor (R=Exp(dV/Isp/g) 3.5685 TSTO Gross Mass (MTg=MBp+MBs+MBf) [kg] 52095 Orbiter Gross Mass (M0g=MOp+MOs+MOf) [kg] 10010 Booster Dry Mass (MBs=SUM(MBs1:MBs6)) [kg] 8445 Orbiter Dry Mass (MOs=SUM(MOs1:MOs6)) [kg] 2260 Wings Mass (MBs1) [kg] 645 Wings Mass (MOs1) [kg] 259 TPS Mass (MBs2) [kg] 463 TPS Mass (MOs2) [kg] 458 Fuselage Mass (MBs3) [kg] 1824 Fuselage Mass (MOs3) [kg] 592 Tank Mass (MBs4) [kg] 1888 Tank Mass (MOs4) [kg] 713 Systems Mass (MBs5) [kg] 797 Systems Mass (MOs5) [kg] 220 Engines Mass (MBs6) [kg] 2827 Engines Mass (MOs6) [kg] 278 FSSC-16 Defined Propellant Mass (MBf) [kg] 33640 FSSC-16 Defined Propellant Mass (MOf) [kg] 7205 Booster Payload (MBp=MOg, Orbiter Gross Mass) [kg] 10010 Resultant TSTO Payload (MOp) [kg] 545 Booster delta-V loss (LdV) [m/s] 850 Orbiter delta-V loss (LdV) [m/s] --- Booster delta-V (BdV) [m/s] 2204 Orbiter delta-V (OdV) [m/s] 5616 TSTO System Details Total Mission Delta-V [m/s] 8670 TSTO Dry Mass (MTs=MBs+MOs) [kg] 10705 TSTO Gross Mass (MTg=MTs+MBf+MOf+MOp) [kg] 52095
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Deutschland11/11/2015 24 Supplementary Slides ADVANTAGES OF AIR LAUNCHING - DAN DELONG 1. The airplane carrier contributes to the overall altitude and velocity. These advantages are small. 2. Meteorological uncertainties are mostly below launch altitude. Propellant reserves can thus be less. 3. Total integrated aerodynamic drag losses are less, as the launch is above much of the atmosphere. 4. Max Q is less, which reduces structural mass, and may allow lower density thermal insulation. 5. Engine average Isp is increased because the atmospheric back‐pressure effect affects a smaller fraction of the trajectory. 6. Engine expansion ratio (non‐variable geometry assumed) can be greater because overexpansion is less problematical. 7. Wing area can be smaller because the wings do not need to lift the gross weight at low subsonic speed. Air launch Q is greater than runway rotation Q. 8. Wing aerofoil shape need not be designed to work well at high gross weight and low subsonic speeds. 9. Wing bending structure need not be designed for gross weight take‐offs or gust loads. Wings can reasonably be stressed for 0. 7 g working plus margin. This is a large weight advantage made possible by the carrier aircraft flying a lofted trajectory and releasing the orbiter at an initial angle of at least 15 degrees. (25 degrees is much better but not crucial, more than 60 degrees has no value) This initial angle decays in the first 10 seconds of flight but picks up again as propellant is burned and the constant wing stress trajectory yields a better lift/weight ratio. The thing to keep in mind is that the wings are sized and stressed for landing, and that insofar as they exist, are used to augment launch performance. 10. Thrust/weight ratio can be smaller because the low initial trajectory angle does not have large gravity losses. This allows a smaller engine, propellant feed, and thrust structure mass fraction. I found 1.25 at release to be about optimum. This is a bigger advantage in air launching because total integrated aerodynamic drag losses are less and the trajectory need not get the orbiter out of the thick stuff as fast. 11. The lower mass/(total planform area) yields lower entry temperatures. I assumed inconel foil stretched over fibrous blanket insulation for much of the vehicle undersurface. Titanium over blankets, or no insulation worked on the top surface. Payload bay doors peaked at 185 F. 12. Mission flexibility is greater. For example, the carrier airplane can fly uprange before release to allow a wider return‐to‐launch‐site abort window. Good ferry capability, etc. Could reusable air-launch break the space access paradigm?
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