Life is full of unpredictable events and there’s nothing we can do about it. Bad things happen to people for no particular reason. BULL! These are the terms used to explain how to understand disasters and how they happen.

2. DEFINITION:
Shit Happens: life is full of
unpredictable events and there’s
nothing we can do about it. Bad
things happen to people for no
particular reason.

3. BULL

4. The Donner Party: Social Disintegration

5. DEFINITION:
Catastrophe
The final event of the dramatic
action, especially of a tragedy.
An event causing great and often
sudden damage or suffering; a
disaster.
Utter failure.

6. The Challenger: Organizational Failure

7. DEFINITION:
The Rule of 7
Rarely does a disaster happens in
isolation or as the result of a single
event. It usually requires a minimum
of 7 things to go wrong in order for a
catastrophe. And one of those 7 is
always human error.

8. The St. Francis Dam: Engineering Failure

9. DEFINITION:
Cascade Event
An event prior to a catastrophe that
contributes to the actual catastrophe, but by
itself, is not catastrophic.
DEFINITION:
Final Event
A catastrophic event. The culmination of at
least six cascade events.

10. The Sinking of the Sultana: Greed

11. DEFINITION:
Delusion Event
A cascade event that doesn’t lead
to a final event.
If we succeed at something that
should have failed, we’re fooled
into believing we can keep doing it.

12. DEFINITION:
Delusion Event
It’s driving with the check engine
light on and nothing bad happens.
It deludes you into thinking the
light isn’t important.

13. Custer: Leadership Failure

14. DEFINITION
Delusional mindset
Someone who has had success far
beyond that which should be the
norm, helped with an abnormal
amount of luck, believes the
abnormal is normal and that their
streak will continue indefinitely.

15. Special Forces Training

16. DEFINITION:
Lose-lose scenarios
This is a training scenario where
there is no ‘right’ solution.
The goal is to examine thought
processes and decision making.

17. Pearl Harbor: False Assumptions

18. DEFINITION:
Catastrophe mindset:
Expecting that what can go wrong;
will.

19. The Last Czar:
Leadership Failure

20. DEFINITION:
Cascade Stopper:
A person designated as the check
and balance on a leader, especially
under stressful situations.

21. DEFINITION:
10th Man:
A person designated to take the
opposite point of view to the
majority and to argue for it.

22. Seven Ways to Prevent Catastrophes
1. Have a Special Ops preparation mindset
2. Focus by utilizing both big picture & detail
thinkers
3. Conduct Special Forces Area Studies
4. Use the Special Forces CARVER formula
5. Have a “10th man”
6. Conduct After Action Reviews
7. Write and USE Standing Operating
Procedures (SOPs)

23. Are you interested in a presentation about various
catastrophes and how the cascade events could have been
prevented?
Events covered range from human-machine interface, to
leadership, to communication, cost-cutting, engineering, group
think, perseverance, systematic failure, and more?
Catastrophes are cascade events culminating in disastrous
chaos. War is chaos. Special Forces is the most elite unit
trained for a variety of combat situations.
What makes Special Forces elite is our mindset and
preparation.
Are you interested in a presentation on how to use Special
Forces tactics, techniques and mental attitude to help your
organization anticipate and prevent potential catastrophes?
Please email bob@bobmayer.com
Summary

24. More Free Information
If you want to go directly to a document with live
links to all free apps, gear, library, and Jeep stuff,
use your camera on this QR Code. Or copy and
paste:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vwgilkne2vsq4jrhkpgi
c/GEAR-
LINKS.docx?dl=0&rlkey=i858w1e2zd3irup2lcvhvlbm
a

25. More Free Information
Since Slideshare no longer supports links,
I’ve also put all the links to free apps, gear and web
pages on my web site at
www.bobmayer.com
Use the pop up from the following image there and
scroll through for what you want:

29. New York Times bestselling author, is a graduate of West Point and
former Green Beret. He’s had over 80 books published, including the #1
bestselling series Green Berets, Time Patrol, Area 51, and Atlantis. He’s
sold over 5 million books. He was born in the Bronx and has traveled the
world. He’s lived on an island off the east coast, an island off the west
coast, in the Rocky Mountains, the Smoky Mountains and other places,
including time in East Asia studying martial arts.
They haven’t caught him yet.
www.bobmayer.com