Decision Making and Risk As can be gleaned from the above predicaments, each conscious action or inaction represents a decision, a decision to do or not to do something. Always remember this: Doing nothing is also a decision. It is a decision that sits on your head. “Status quo” is also a decision. No escaping around it! Another interesting aspect of risks are the near miss stories like those from the 9-11 survivors. They are very mysterious in a big way, forcing us to draw deeper into our inner self, even from our subconscious. A rare cigarette break to a routine schedule brought one outside the twin tower, a sudden errand caused one to be late, a booking typo messed up a passenger’s flight, and other unusual circumstances have removed one from the epicenter of 9-11 disasters (Park, M., 2011.Small Choices, saved lives) into safety. Small Decisions, Big Consequence? The small choices they made were practically insignificant decisions yet the impact is life itself. What is greater than avoiding a threat to one’s very existence? No money can equal survival! For some divine providence, those tiny decision fibers in the cosmic make-up of the larger risk-system network have saved numerous lives. Miniscule as they are, they have the power to shape a person and a whole community’s future. It is truly uncanny and magical!

1. Man is the Center of the Risk Universe
By Rufran C. Frago
RCA and Risk
Root cause analysis (RCA) is the process of finding the event or condition that leads straight to
an occurrence (another event). It is a systematic procedure used to identify the principal possible
cause of risk. In risk-based management, root cause analysis (RCA) is more useful in predicting
future events.
RCA is no longer a hindsight technique of investigation but a forward-looking one. It still relies
on previous experience, statistics, and more heavily on data correlation. We are now after
possible future causes of potential future risks (Frago, R., 2015.Risk-based Management in the
World of Threats and Opportunities).
Human Factor
Between such uncontrollable events and disastrous consequences lie human causality factor. If a
tornado is coming in fast from the horizon, man’s decision where to go for refuge dictates his
chance of survival or the risk of dying. He can stay where he is or go elsewhere and end up
saving himself or still end up losing his life.
Figure 1 – Risk Starts from the Man who Made the Decision

2. Saw a Youtube video of the Persian Gulf war recently. I saw a man left the confines of his small
car and ran towards a building in desperate bid to survive the bombing. The smart bomb from the
fighter plane blew the building to smithereens with him in it. The structure was actually the
intended target.
The man’s decision to run towards the target cost him his life. He has not logically calculated
that smart bombs were too expensive to target one ordinary Iraqi man.
An NCPA article back in 1999 placed the laser-guided 2,000 pound bomb dropped from a radar-
evading F-117 was worth $26,200 (NCPA, 1999. Smart Bombs" Cost Money -- Lots Of It).
Decision Making and Risk
As can be gleaned from the above predicaments, each conscious action or inaction represents a
decision, a decision to do or not to do something. Always remember this:
Doing nothing is also a decision. It is a decision that sits on your head. “Status quo” is
also a decision. No escaping around it!
Another interesting aspect of risks are the near miss stories like those from the 9-11 survivors.
They are very mysterious in a big way, forcing us to draw deeper into our inner self, even from
our subconscious.
A rare cigarette break to a routine schedule brought one outside the twin tower, a sudden errand
caused one to be late, a booking typo messed up a passenger’s flight, and other unusual
circumstances have removed one from the epicenter of 9-11 disasters (Park, M., 2011.Small
Choices, saved lives) into safety.
Small Decisions, Big Consequence?
The small choices they made were practically insignificant decisions yet the impact is life itself.
What is greater than avoiding a threat to one’s very existence? No money can equal survival!
For some divine providence, those tiny decision fibers in the cosmic make-up of the larger risk-
system network have saved numerous lives.
Miniscule as they are, they have the power to shape a person and a whole community’s future. It is truly
uncanny and magical!
Man is the Center of the Risk-Universe
The statement that risk starts from the person making the decision is a true and valid notion.
Without man in the midst of the risk network, problems, issues, risks and root cause analysis does not
make good sense anymore.

3. Figure 2 – Man is the Center of the Risk-Universe
Setting faith and religion aside for a moment, I can confidently say that everything in this world
was made for man. All endeavors exist to satisfy man’s objectives. He is the centerpiece of risk-
based management. He is the central figure in risk-based management.
“Each individual player within the risk universe will see things a bit differently compared to the
next person, with some people interpreting things in exactly the opposite fashion. In each case,
the person can see only one attribute.
The simplistic objective point of view is that risk is either a threat or an opportunity, depending
on the observer’s orientation to the goal. If one sits on his most important goal and look at the
potential risk, the resultant or prevailing consequence describes whether it is a threat or an
opportunity (Frago, R., 2014.Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and
Opportunities.p3).”
Who sets the aim? Man! Who manage things? Man! Who sets objectives? Man!
Suddenly, sans religion and philosophy, the risk-universe revolves around man and his
objectives.
When tracing the possible causes of potential risks, consider man to be on the center of the risk
network and each risk event (Figure 2) . As such, it makes perfect sense that one has to focus
only on root causes that he can modify, influence, or change.

4. As man cannot control or modify bad weather, volcano eruption, and tsunami, he skips them and
concentrates on the next probable cause. They are not valid causes of risks even though they are
origin of misfortunes and disasters. He has no choice but to jump to the next network branch.
In business, knowing that risk starts from the person making the decision place the burden of
responsibility squarely on the shoulder of managers, directors and executive officers.
Knowing that small decisions can also have big impacts distribute responsibility to all. Industrial
safety culture has already adopted the principle. It is about time to spread and apply the code to
all activities.
After all, risk-based management is everything we do in life. It covers all human
endeavors, regardless of whether it is big or small.
To read a simple example about the ordinary littlest thing in life that affects people, read my
other article: “Frago, R., 2016.Risk starts from the person making the decision”
Rufran C. Frago – Author (30-Jun-2016)
Rufran is the author of the book Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and
Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective.
 https://youtu.be/LDESPW6OYkg
 http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI
 https://www.amazon.com/author/rufrancfrago
For those who are interested, please join Rufran at the following sites.
 LinkedIn Risk-based Management (RBM) Group
 My Oil Pro
 Risk-based Management and Services Inc. Facebook
 Your World, Our Risk Universe: Wordpress
 E-Touch Up: A Brand of RBM&S Inc.
 Author Page: Amazon.com
 LinkedIn Professional Website
Related articles authored by Rufran Frago.
1. Schedule Critical path
2. Primer to Good Schedule Integration
3. Project Schedule: P50, Anyone?
4. Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
5. Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 2
6. 4D Scheduling Part 1: What is it about?

5. 7. 4D Scheduling Part 2
8. 4D Scheduling Part 3
9. Risks as a Function of Time
10. Project Schedule: P50, Anyone?
11. Mega-Projects Schedule Management and Integration
12. Scaffolding Hours: What are they? Part 1
13. Scaffolding Hours: What are they? Part 2
14. Oil Price, Recession: Causes, Issues and Risks
15. Your World, Our Risk Universe
16. Rufran Frago in the Global Risk Community Site
17. Earthquakes, Super Typhoons and Fundamentals of RBM
18. and more...