This document discusses research analyzing language patterns ("disaster scripts") on Twitter in response to 21 different disasters between 2012-2016. The research found: 1) Similar disaster response language was used across different disaster types, particularly references to victims, prayers, and social support. 2) The frequency of disaster scripts on Twitter correlated moderately with casualty numbers for earthquakes but showed low correlation globally for terrorism events. 3) The correlation between scripts and impact was strongest in North America and Western Europe, likely due to demographic and infrastructure differences in other regions.

1. #pray4victims:
Consistencies In
Response To
Disaster on Twitter
@codybuntain
Postdoctoral Fellow
Social Media and Political Participation Lab,
NYU
Cody Buntain, Jung Kyu Lim
CSCW, 5 November 2018
Image Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Sandy_New_Jersey_Pier.jpg

2. Harvey Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:An_infrared_satellite_image_of_Hurricane_Harvey,_a_category_2_hurricane._(35988351183).jpg
Boston: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_Marathon_bombing
Ferguson: http://www.fastcompany.com/3034842/innovation-agents/3-things-that-turned-this-photograph-into-a-ferguson-icon

4. The Dallas Sniper Attack and “Disaster Scripts”
The people of __________________ are so resilient. They
will recover. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the
victims and those affected by ____________________.
Cody Buntain
@CodyBuntain
PLACE
DISASTER
“[People’s response] feels like a script. It feels
like everyone knows what they need to say.”
NPR’s Sam Sanders on ReplyAll
Episode 70, “Stolen Valor”

5. 1 in 5 tweets contained
“sympathy and emotional support”
(second most common class of information)

6. What is the point of this talk?
Do these scripts correlate with disaster impact?
How prevalent are “disaster scripts”in Twitter?

7. 21 Disasters of 3 Different Types

9. Data Source for Crises
Significant Earthquake Database
NGDC, NOAA
START Center, UMD

10. Data Source for Social Media Analysis
Archive of Twitter’s Public Sample Stream:
• April 2012 — August 2016
• 6,566,301,318 tweets in total
• Average of 4,068,340 tweets per day

11. Do these scripts correlate with disaster impact?
How prevalent are “disaster scripts” in Twitter?
• H1: Crises of similar type will exhibit similar keyword “scripts”.
• H2: Regardless of crisis type, references to social support will be common.
• H3: The normalized frequency of the a disaster script will correlate with casualty.
• H4: Correlations between disaster script and severity will be modulated by region.

12. Do these scripts correlate with disaster impact?
How prevalent are “disaster scripts” in Twitter?

13. An Algorithm for Extracting Disaster Scripts
For each event in a disaster-type

14. affected
victims
praying
prayer

15. Do these scripts correlate with disaster impact?
How prevalent are “disaster scripts” in Twitter?

16. Comparing Disaster Scripts to Casualties
Significant Earthquake Database
NGDC, NOAA
START Center, UMD

17. Correlating the Terrorism Vocabulary to the GTD
Low global correlation
Pearson r = 0.02191

18. Correlating the Terrorism Vocabulary to the GTD
1. 14 November 2015
2. 13 November 2015
3. 15 April 2013
4. 15 November 2015
5. 16 November 2015
1. 15 April 2014
2. 25 June 2015
3. 28 September 2015
4. 7 August 2015
5. 15 November 2013

19. Correlating the Earthquake Vocabulary to the SED
SEDTwitter
Date
Moderate correlation
Pearson r = 0.3985

20. Correlating the Earthquake Vocabulary to the SED
1. 24 August 2016
2. 25 April 2015
3. 26 April 2015
4. 27 April 2015
5. 17 April 2016
1. 25 April 2015
2. 20 April 2013
3. 16 April 2016
4. 11 August 2012
5. 3 August 2014
SEDTwitter
Date

21. Correlating Regional Disaster in Twitter
START Center, UMD Significant Earthquake Database
NGDC, NOAA
Correlation is strongest
In North America and
Western Europe

22. Insights

23. Cross-Disaster Language
Information Needs
affected
victims
praying
prayer Social Support

24. Potential Causes of Regional Biases
• Language: this study is in English, which
accounts for only ~20% of Twitter
• Demographics: Less-advantaged or
sparsely populated countries may have less
infrastructure and fewer users
• Politics: Twitter is unavailable in China
Sampling in Twitter is very difficult

25. Impact vs. Casualties
• Severity of an event is often measured in
casualties or dollars
• Social media may provide an alternate axis
for disaster severity: societal impact
• What about impact on the population?
• Especially important given impact is a
goal of terrorism

26. Many Limitations
Public Sample
Stream is incomplete
Selected Terror Events
Were Western-Focused
Keyword Selection
Is Biased to English

27. What is the point of this talk?
• Similarities exist within and across disaster types (“thoughts and prayers”)
Do these scripts correlate with disaster impact?
How prevalent are“disaster scripts” in Twitter?
• Disaster scripts correlate with casualties but mainly in North America and Western
Europe

28. Thanks!
Questions?
@codybuntain
SMaPP Lab, NYU