This document discusses how trends in the video game industry can impact the success of new games. It uses the example of the game FRU, which sold less than 10,000 copies despite having no direct competitors in the Kinect market. The document argues that while FRU's concept may have seemed original at creation, it was released after the trends of puzzle platformers, party games and Kinect games had become saturated. Developers are advised to study current trends but not follow them directly, and consider timing their release before a trend becomes oversaturated if the game's concept relates to that trend. Shortening a game's length is presented as a better option than compromising creative vision, to better reach players as trends are changing.

1. Time to market
When a worse game is better.
Mattia Traverso
MILAN 25-26 NOVEMBER 2016

2. About Me

3. About Me
This is me when it’s 3 am and I am working on a presentation for Codemotion

4. About Me
One and One Story – 2011

5. About Me
One and One Story – 2011
Here’s work I have conflicted feelings about

6. About Me
FRU – 2016

7. About Me
? - ?

8. What is this presentation about?
It’s not about game design.

9. What is this presentation about?
It’s not about business

10. What is this presentation about?
It’s not about marketing

11. What is this presentation about?
It’s about FRU

12. So, what is FRU?

13. So, what is FRU?

14. So, what is FRU?

15. So, what is FRU?
game development is serious stuff

16. So, what is FRU?

17. So, what is FRU?
The original prototype

18. So, what is FRU?

19. So, what is FRU?

20. So, what is FRU?

21. So, what is FRU?

22. So, are we rich yet?
Well…
As of today, FRU has sold less than 10.000 copies.
0,0025%
Of the potential audience.
Why is that?

23. Well.
1. Maybe it’s a bad game?

24. It’s a bad game.

25. It’s a bad game.

26. It’s a bad game.

27. Well.
1. Maybe it’s a bad game?
2. Maybe players do not like it?

28. Players don’t like it.

29. Well.
1. Maybe it’s a bad game?
2. Maybe players do not like it?
3. Maybe the marketing was bad?

30. Well.

31. It’s a bad game.

32. It’s a bad game.

33. Well.
1. Maybe it’s a bad game?
2. Maybe players do not like it?
3. Maybe the marketing was bad?
4. Well, it is a Kinect game.

34. It’s a Kinect game. What did you expect?

35. Well.

36. Well.

37. Well.
There’s an estimated 4 million Kinect V2 out there.
Even if the amount that were sold back, thrown away, lit on fire is 50%...
10.000 / 2.000.000 is still quite low.
And in a market with basically no competitors!

38. Well.
Don’t let your subjective perception of a market fool you.
Do your research!

39. Well.
1. Maybe it’s a bad game?
2. Maybe players do not like it?
3. Maybe the marketing was bad?
4. Well, it is a Kinect game.

40. So what the heck went wrong?

41. We were too late.

42. Is the market saturated?
https://medium.com/steam-spy/on-indiepocalypse-what-is-really-killing-indie-games-3da3c3a1ea76#.uvfh83i9h

43. Is the market saturated?

44. Is the market saturated?

45. Is the market saturated?

46. Is the market saturated?

47. Is the market saturated?

48. If Super Meat Boy were to be released Today…
It would NOT sell as much.

49. If Super Meat Boy were to be released Today…
It would NOT sell as much.
Because Super Meat Boy was already made.

50. Super Meat Boy: The Trend

51. Super Meat Boy: The Trend

52. Super Meat Boy: The Trend

53. Super Meat Boy: The Trend

54. Super Meat Boy: The Trend

55. Super Meat Boy: The Trend

56. Super Meat Boy: The Trend

57. Trends affect your game
It’s not about the saturation of the market, it’s about the saturation of a
trend.

58. Those games are wildy different!
But wait.

59. Those games are wildy different!
But wait.

60. But wait.
While it’s true that games belonging to the same genre can be completely
different from one another, the public will always catalogue them in genres,
binders and labels.
We are interested in the public’s perception of the game’s high level concept,
not the game itself.
Video games critics are not your audience ;)

61. Trends affect your game
Quality * Marketing * Audience Size

62. Trends affect your game
Quality * Marketing * Audience Size * Trend Receptiveness

63. Trend examples
The 2014 survival craze

64. Trend examples
2013 and linear, narrative focussed experiences

65. Other trends
2012 and Minimalist Mobile Puzzle Games

66. To get back to FRU…
“FRU is my original creation and does not follow
any trend.” A foolish man, 2016

67. To get back to FRU…
Just like your audience follows trends, you
subconsciouslly do as a creator.

68. To get back to FRU…
Which genres or trends can we associate this game with?

69. To get back to FRU…
Puzzle Platformers
Party game
Kinect games
Indie games

70. To get back to FRU…
Puzzle Platformers
Party game
Kinect games
Indie games

71. Puzzle platformers

72. Puzzle platformers

73. Puzzle platformers

74. Puzzle platformers

75. Puzzle platformers

76. Puzzle platformers

79. http://steamspy.com/tag/Puzzle-Platformer
A sobering exercise.
Follow this link, then sort by release date.

80. To get back to FRU…
Puzzle Platformers
Party game
Kinect games
”Indie games”

81. Kinect Games

82. Kinect Games
Give the hate around it, it might not seem that Kinect games were
ever a trend.
Yet that would be a mistake: you’d be judging the peripheral from
YOUR point of view, rather than its audience.

83. To get back to FRU…
Puzzle Platformers
Party game
Kinect games
“Indie games”

84. Indie games

85. To get back to FRU…
Puzzle Platformers
Party game
Kinect games
“Indie games”

86. Party Games

87. To get back to FRU…
Puzzle Platformers
Party game
Kinect games
“Indie games”

88. Big question #1
So, should I make a game based on a current Trend?

89. Big question #1
So, should I make a game based on a current Trend?
absolutely not!

90. So, should I make a game based on a current Trend?
First of all, you’d be already late.
Second, this is how creativity dies.

91. Takeaway #1
Do not follow trends.
But watch them closely.

92. Big question #1
What you are doing might be original NOW, but will it be once the
game is out?
This is obviously a question for the start of your project, but there a
couple things you can do if you realise this too late.

93. Big question #1
1. Clever Product Placement

94. Big question #1
2. Make a shorter game

95. Big question #2
If I make my game shorter, won’t that ruin my vision?

96. Big question #2

97. Takeaway #2
Don’t make a shorter version of your game.
Make a new game that follows your vision but happens to be shorter!

98. But what if there’s no shorter version of my game?
What if I don’t care about sales?
What if I have a vision and I want to express it?

99. In conclusion
• Your game’s quality matters, but so does the timing of your release
• Look at where the market is now, and where it will be when the game is
out
• Can you make a shorter version of your game? If so, that’s always the
best alternative.
• Use SteamSpy, read Gamesindustry.biz, look at what the big publishers
are pushing right now
• Don’t make a Kinect game

100. Thank you
Let’s chat! - @MattiaNotFound