In 2019 the $250 billion global international education industry sits at a cross-roads with 5 mega-trends already in play that will have profound impacts on the global international education industry over the next decade. Find out about the potential impacts and opportunities for international education providers and how Metamorphis Digital Advisory can help.

1. International Education
Megatrends
Insights and Consequences for the Global
International Education Industry

2. Contents
2
Introduction………………………………3
International Education
Megatrends………………………………4
Megatrend One: Supply outstrips
Demand……………………………………5
Megatrend Two: Peak China……….7
Megatrend Three: The impact of AI
and automation on work……………9
Megatrend Four: Gen Z in the
Classroom…………………………………11
Megatrend Five: Climate Change..13
Opportunities Abound in 2030…..15
In Summary: What? – So What? –
Now What?………………………..16
The Metamorphis Team – Here to
Help…………………………………..17

3. Introduction
Five key megatrends are already in play that will have profound
impacts on the global international education industry as it currently
exists by 2030; in just 12 years time.
In this document we examine the five key megatrends and explore
the potential impacts and opportunities for international education
providers using our unique ‘What?-So What?-Now What?’ approach.
In 2019 the $250 billion
global international
education industry sits at
a cross-roads
3

4. International Education Megatrends
Supply outstrips
Demand
Driven by increasing
awareness of the economic
and human capital benefits
of international education,
the supply of quality
education from host
countries will outstrip
demand from mobile
learners for the first time
ever.
Peak China
A rapidly ageing population
and diminishing returns on
investing in an overseas
education will see the flow
of outbound students from
the world’s #1 source
market for international
students slow, and then
decline.
The impact of AI and
automation on work
Automation will bring huge
changes to the world of
work, as the impacts of
artificial intelligence and
robotics displace up to 400
million workers, while new
jobs are created requiring
21st century skillsets.
Gen Z in the
classroom
The rise of a new generation
of learners and workers with
utterly different values to the
current generation will drive
fundamental changes to
education systems still
largely wedded to 20th
century models of teaching
and learning.
Climate Change
As the imperative to mitigate
the estimated $54 trillion
impact of climate change
grows, any industry that
relies on greenhouse gas
emissions related to air
travel will be at risk of
economic penalties and loss
of social license.
4

5. Megatrend One:
Supply outstrips Demand
In the near future, for the first time ever, the
supply of quality education offerings from
international education host countries will
outstrip the total demand from globally mobile
learners. 5
• The number of globally mobile students is expected to peak and
then stabilise at 7-8 million students by 2025 (currently 5.5
million). Further growth will be driven by a combination of
demographic and new geographic market drivers.
• At the same time that growth in mobile students is slowing, the
supply of quality education has been rapidly rising, driven by
recognition of the major economic and human capital benefits to
the economies of host countries.
• The supply side of international education has been historically
dominated by the USA and UK. In recent years they have been
joined by Australia, Canada and New Zealand in a group termed the
Mainly English Speaking Destinations (MESDs).
• However, the MESDs have now been joined by a wide range of non-
MESD competitors that provide plenty of options to global learners
and significantly increase the number of quality offerings available.
• Nearly every host country is trying to grow and diversify their
international student base. An analysis of current 2025
international student volume targets from the top ten host
countries already exceeds some estimates of the total number of
globally mobile students.

6. Megatrend One:
Supply outstrips Demand
What are the consequences for international
education?
6
• There will no longer be a guarantee that every host country will get
either the volume or the kinds of international students they want.
• When supply exceeds demand, the market is expected to fragment,
with the emergence of a third price-sensitive segment alongside
existing premium and package segments.
• Fragmentation will be driven by some existing host countries
dropping tuition fees in order to maintain volume, and by new host
countries looking to enter the industry for the first time.
• Fragmentation will have the effect of bringing a new group of
international students into the industry who previously could not
afford international study.
• However, the emergence of a price segment is likely to lead to
hyper-competition and commoditization, and place pressure on the
offerings of host countries not having either ‘global education
prestige’ or competitive packages around in-study and post-study
work rights, migration pathways etc. for international students and
graduates.
• Hyper-competition will result in international students (and possibly
agents) capturing most of the value and may make international
education an economically unattractive proposition for some
education providers.

7. Megatrend Two:
Peak China
Chinese students dominate international
education globally. A declining and ageing
Chinese population means this can’t last.
There is no ‘new China’ for international
education. 7
• China is the single most important source of international students
for almost all of the leading education destinations.
• Rising incomes and dissatisfaction with China’s ultracompetitive
and inequitable education system has produced a study-abroad
exodus of historic proportions. The number of outbound students
reached 608,000 in 2017, more than 15 times the level seen in
2000.
• From around 2028, China’s population will start to shrink from an
estimated 1.4 billion. China is set to become the world’s first old-
yet-poor nation with potentially significant ramifications for outward
student mobility over the longer term.
• China’s economic success and declining labour force have pushed
up wages and salaries, eroding the nation’s industrial competitive
advantage and strengthening the case for process automation.
Thousands of factories in China are turning to automation in a
government-backed, robotics revolution. China’s factories are
adding robots faster than people and the country is losing more
jobs to automation than to cheaper competitor countries.
• An increasing proportion of Chinese students with foreign
qualifications are returning home after studying overseas, with a
record 409,100 Chinese students returning in 2015.
• Being a foreign graduate no longer guarantees a good job in China
and Chinese students have to work harder to differentiate
themselves and sell their experience when applying for jobs in
China.

8. Megatrend Two:
Peak China
What are the consequences for international
education?
8
• Just about every major host country recognises their reliance on
Chinese international students and the need to diversify markets to
mitigate risk.
• But to date, there are few – if any - host countries that have been
successful in achieving meaningful market diversification.
• Every major host country pursuing a diversification strategy to
reduce reliance on Chinese students seems to have the same ‘Plan
B’ that involves growing international students from African
nations. Even combined these will not be enough to replace
Chinese students by 2030.
• Whether through changes driven by population demographics or by
unpredictable geopolitical events, China will eventually become the
number one host country for international students globally, as well
as the number one source country.
• A decline in outbound Chinese students will significantly
exacerbate the emerging imbalance between supply and demand
and hence intensify competition amongst the incumbent host
countries.
• In many host countries, the loss of revenue from Chinese
international students will have a significant impact on the capacity
and capability of their domestic education provision.
• International education providers need to plan for a downturn in
Chinese students sooner rather than later and avoid the temptation
to increase volumes in the short term just because its easy to do
so.

9. Megatrend Three:
The Impact of AI and
automation on work
The future of jobs and employment is undergoing
profound change thanks to the impacts of
artificial intelligence and automation.
International education host countries that do
not prepare students for this future are at risk. 9
• Automation is creating big shifts in the world of work, as AI and
robotics change or replace some jobs, while new types of jobs are
created.
• Up to 1.2 billion workers globally will be affected by automation and
400 million workers could be displaced by 2030.
• Even if there is enough work to ensure full employment by 2030,
major transitions lie ahead that could match or even exceed the
scale of historical shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing.
• By 2030 75-300 million workers will need to switch occupational
categories.
• Even with automation, the demand for work and workers could
increase as economies grow, partly fueled by productivity growth
enabled by technological progress.
• Rising incomes and consumption especially in developing
countries, increasing health care for aging societies, investment in
infrastructure and energy, and other trends will create ongoing
demand for work.

10. Megatrend Three:
The Impact of AI and
automation on work
What are the consequences for international
education?
10
• The ability of education systems to teach students 21st century
skills will be a major determinant of their attractiveness to
international students in the future.
• Host countries whose education systems are capable of rapidly
retraining workers displaced or impacted by AI and automation will
thrive.
• However, the education systems of these same countries may be
overwhelmed with retraining their own displaced or impacted
workers, leaving little room for educating or retraining international
students.
• The scale of the impacts from AI and automation on jobs will have a
profound impact on the prevailing delivery model of education (on
campus and via fixed qualifications like the bachelors degree) and
drive the rapid uptake of micro-credentials and fields of learning
that are currently far less popular for most international students
(e.g. humanities, creativity, arts, health care etc.).
• International education providers who can offer high-quality
education and training on a just-in-time basis at speed, scale and
low-cost should be well placed to succeed.

11. Megatrend Four:
Gen Z in the classroom
If you’ve only just figured out Millennials, then
forget everything you know.
11
• Generation Z, comprised of people born roughly from 1995 to
2010 will dominate education from now until 2030.
• Gen Z attitudes, beliefs, and behaviours aren’t limited to western
societies, they’re globally ubiquitous.
• Gen Z use social media as their research tool. 60% of Gen Z prefer
YouTube as a learning tool. If it’s online they believe its true.
• Gen Z are more mature and in control than Gen Y and intend to
change the world.
• Gen Z are hyperaware and concerned about man’s impact on the
planet and are strongly oriented towards social causes.
• Learning will become a life-long process with Gen Z learners
consuming small chunks of learning in the size and format that
works for them.
• Gen Z learners will need a broader suite of tools. In addition to the
foundational literacies most education systems currently excel in,
learners will need a range of competencies and character qualities
to succeed.

12. Megatrend Four:
Gen Z in the classroom
What are the consequences for international
education?
12
• Generation Z will breed globally mobile students that are strongly
cause driven and much more likely to choose a host country and
education provider based on how well aligned they are to global
causes like addressing climate change, the status of women, social
equity etc. rather than academic quality rankings.
• Gen Z learners will be far less likely to contemplate education
offerings that are based around fixed and inflexible 3-4 year
qualifications.
• Gen Z learners will embrace online education, peer-to-peer
learning, and micro-credentials as the norm by 2030.
• Gen Z learners will be seeking more applied learning experiences
and education that enhances their entrepreneurial aspirations and
fulfils their need to make a positive impact on important causes
and global challenges.
• Gen Z learners will need the skills and tools to differentiate
between real and fake when it comes to what they find online and
in their self-curated learning journeys.
• International education providers should start looking for
opportunities to market to a wider range of learners beyond the
current narrow focus on 18 -23 year old’s.

13. Megatrend Five:
Climate Change
Climate change is not in most megatrend lists
but creates both significant risks and
opportunities for international education.
13
• Evidence suggests the world is probably already locked into about
1.5oC warming by 2040 unless greenhouse gas emissions are
dramatically reduced in the next 12 years.
• The 2018 UN IPPC report paints a far more dire picture of the
immediate consequences of climate change than previously
thought and says that avoiding the damage requires transforming
the world economy at a speed and scale that has “no documented
historic precedent”.
• Climate change impacts from 1.5oC warming by 2040 include
inundated coastlines, intensifying droughts and poverty with
economic damage estimated to cost $54 trillion.
• The United States along with Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India,
Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam are home to 50
million people who will be exposed to the effects of increased
coastal flooding by 2040, if 1.5oC degrees of warming occur.
• At 2oC degrees of warming, the report predicts a
“disproportionately rapid evacuation” of people from the tropics.
“In some parts of the world, national borders will become
irrelevant”.

14. Megatrend Five:
Climate Change
What are the consequences for international
education?
14
• Host countries who can demonstrate the relevance of their
education systems and education offerings to solving climate
change challenges are likely to prosper.
• However, those host countries that currently have the majority of
their international students in generic fields like business and
commerce may find themselves at the risk of significant disruption.
• Regional destinations are likely to benefit, as are those host
countries that are physically close to major source markets.
• Host countries that are physically very distant from source markets
may be severely impacted unless they can first understand, and
second mitigate, the carbon footprint of international education.
• The education, science, and research eco-systems of some major
host countries are likely to be refocused on solving climate change
challenges – a major shift from helping students gain skills for
employment.
• At some point industries will bear the economic costs of their own
greenhouse gas emissions, and this may be significant for
international education providers and/or international students.

15. Opportunities Abound in
2030
In 2030, despite the many challenges
presented by the megatrends, opportunities
abound for those international education
providers who can adapt and change.
15
• At the same time that competition for the forecast 8
million globally mobile learners gets hyper-intense, there
will be around 800 million learners globally that need a
quality education but who can’t afford to travel (or who
choose not to based on their beliefs and values).
• For the most part these learners are located in countries
whose education systems may never have the capability or
capacity to meet their needs.
• The threats presented by the international education
megatrends to the current competitive landscape are
opportunities in this new space, but value innovation will
be critical to success.
• International education providers don’t need to make a
binary choice between one market space or the other, but
doing nothing significantly different may be a terrible
option in the long run.

16. In Summary: What? – So What? – Now What?
• Supply outstrips
Demand
• Peak China
• The impact of AI and
automation
• Gen Z in the Classroom
• Climate Change
16
• Industry hyper-competition is coming,
together with the emergence of a new price
sensitive market segment.
• Chinese outbound student volumes will
decline and no combination of new markets
will replace them. There is no ‘new China’.
• Host countries whose education systems
are capable of rapidly retraining workers
displaced or impacted by AI and automation
will thrive.
• Generation Z will breed globally mobile
students that are strongly cause driven and
will choose a host country and education
provider based on how well aligned they are
to global causes.
• Host countries that are physically very
distant from source markets may be
severely impacted unless they can first
understand, and second mitigate, the
carbon footprint of international education.
• The international education
megatrends present major risks
and opportunities for those
institutions prepared to adapt and
change.
• In 2030, doing nothing significantly
different from 2019 is likely to be a
terrible option for many.
• At the very least, over the next 12
years most international education
providers will have to work much
harder just to stand still in the face
of hyper-competition.
• Talk to Metamorphis Digital about a
customised strategic scan for your
institution and developing a 2030
International Education Strategy.
What? So What? Now What?

17. The Metamorphis Team – Here to Help
17
Metamorphis Digital Advisory, 2019
© 2019 Metamorphis Digital Advisory. International Education Megatrends: Insights and Consequences for the Global International
Education Industry is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license,
visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
About Metamorphis Digital
Advisory
Metamorphis Digital Advisory is an international education research and
strategy advisory company specialising in helping international education
providers navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future.
We have deep expertise in international education and share our expert
knowledge and first-hand experience of what it will take to compete in the
international education industry of the future.
How we can help
Metamorphis can help your institution by:
• Developing a strategic scan that is customised for your institution and
country context
• Guiding you through the strategic choices required both in the short and
long term
• Reviewing and updating your current International Education Strategy to
encompass future challenges and opportunities in a clear and actionable
way
• Developing the business or investment case to fund the changes required
Clive Jones Jeremy Campbell
Director
clive@metamorphis.digital
+64 21 462 524
Senior Strategic Analyst
jeremy@metamorphis.digital
+64 21 180 3002

18. Thank You
Clive Jones
+64 21 462 524
clive@metamorphis.digital
www.metamorphis.digital
Disclaimer
The information contained in this document is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The opinions expressed are in good faith and while every care has been taken in preparing this document, Metamorphis Digital Advisory
makes no representations and gives no warranties of whatever nature in respect of this document, including but not limited to the accuracy or completeness of any information, facts and/or opinions contained therein. Metamorphis Digital Advisory, its subsidiaries,
the directors, employees and agents cannot be held liable for the use of and reliance of the opinions, estimates, forecasts and findings in the document.