The Graduate School of the FutureGrant SabatierMartin Van Der Werfhttp://collegeof2020.com
IntroductionsAuthors of The College of 2020 report published by TheChronicle of Higher Education. Former Chronicle staff. Now blogat Collegeof2020.com on the future of higher education.Grant Sabatier – Vice President, Digital Strategy at EduvantisLLC, a higher education Competitive Strategy firmMarty Van Der Werf – Manager, Marketing at Huron ConsultingGroup, a higher education consulting company
What We Are Going To Cover• What’s Happening Today: – Higher Education Issues and Trends – Graduate Education• What Will 2020 Be Like: – Higher Education Issues and Trends – Graduate Education• Opportunities: The 5 Things You Need To Know To Survive and Thrive
Higher Education Today• 41 states cut higher education spending last year – Florida spending on higher education now at 2003 level• Public universities compensating by raising tuition – Florida Universities raised tuition 15 percent each of last 4 years• Student debt higher than ever – Surpassed credit card debt for the first time ever in 2011
Higher Education Today• College increasingly seen as unaffordable – resistance at all income levels to paying it• Hollowing out of middle: Flight to quality and affordability.• Tuition discount rate over 40 percent• Larger market share for for-profits and community colleges
Graduate Education Today• Attrition rate in PhD programs is in the 40% - 50% range• Graduate enrollment overall dropped 1.1% in 2010, first drop since 2003• Master’s Degree graduates carry on average $51,950 in debt• PhD students carry on average $77,580 in debtSource: “The Path Forward: The Future of Graduate Education in the United States”Commission on the Future of Graduate Education in the United States 2010
Graduate Education Today• No more federally subsidized loans for graduate students• State legislatures generally do not allocate money for faculty research or graduate educationSource: “The Path Forward: The Future of Graduate Education in the United States”Commission on the Future of Graduate Education in the United States 2010
5% increase - total 13% increase– total elementary and secondary enrollment in postsecondary school enrollment from 2008 degree granting institutions to 2020 from 2008 to 2020 2020 3% decrease – total 23 million– number of students in postsecondary number of high school degree granting institutions in graduates from 2008 to 2020 2020Source: “Projections of Education Statistics to 2020”National Center for Education Statistics. September 2011
Higher Education in 2020: Students• Increasingly irregular attendance patterns – combination of PT and online, dropping in and out of college, taking a class when they can afford it• Looking for more experiential education• More minority students – minority students will outnumber whites in about 2021• More adult learners – through 2018, students age 18-24 will increase by 9%, students age 25-34 will increase by 25%
Higher Education in 2020: Facilities and Technology • In 1974, college campuses had about 160 square feet per student • Today, campuses have about 450 square feet per student • About 14 percent of college buildings have gone up in the last decade Going forward, more emphasis on: • Sustainable, environmentally responsible buildings • Interdisciplinary spaces -- As colleges see a need to reuse and reimaging spaces, particularly libraries, they are putting more emphasis on spaces that not only encourage the mingling of disciplines, but can also be easily and quickly reconfigured for new technology
Higher Education in 2020: Facilities and Technology“Thirty years from now the big universitycampuses will be relics... Already we arebeginning to deliver more lectures and classesoff campus via satellite or two-way video at afraction of the cost. The college won’t survive asa residential institution.” Peter Drucker, 1997
Higher Education in 2020: Facilities and Technology • We are entering an era when people will live in the real world and the virtual world, and the boundaries between them will become increasingly difficult to identify. • Visualization tools are making information more meaningful and insights more intuitive. As tools of this nature continue to be developed and used, visual literacy will become an increasingly important skill in decoding, encoding, and determining credibility and authenticity of data. Visual literacy must be formally taught, but it is an evolving field even now.
Higher Education in 2020: Facilities and Technology “I think it’s inevitable that we will eventually have one huge virtual college where there are partnerships and buy-ins from all the major universities of the world, and that they will share and partner in the entire concept.” Jay Box, vice president for technology solutions, Kentucky Community and Technical College System
Higher Education in 2020: Facilities and Technology The best professors will rise to the top – you no longer need 5 intro level biology professors. You use the best one, record them via video and then use the rest of faculty as support. In fact, institutions will share the best content and share professors – or perhaps you can even buy their content.
Higher Education in 2020: Faculty• Tenure under threat• Standards for tenure are higher every year• Benefits costs on campuses are most difficult to control• With research funding in doubt, will more emphasis be placed on “teaching” skills?• Preference for faculty comfortable in many formats, particularly online
Graduate Education in 2020: Rosy ProjectionsBetween 2009 – 2020 Enrollment Is Projected To:• Increase 18% for postgraduate students• The number of master’s degrees will increase 32%• The number of doctoral degrees will increase 57%• The number of professional degrees will increase 30%Source: “Projections of Education Statistics to 2020”National Center for Education Statistics. September 2011
So What?The 5 Things You NeedTo Know To Survive and Thrive
#1There will be incredible opportunitiesfor institutions and programs that canadapt and respond to new marketopportunities.
What Students are Looking for• Still strong demand for higher education• Still seen as worthwhile long-term investment• Emphasis by Obama administration on increasing number of college grads• But future students will want different things: – Cost – Convenience – Time – Value
#2 You need a “competitive strategy” – this is how you plan to increase your market relevance and compete for resources – students, faculty, funding. You no longer compete regionally or even nationally – it’s truly a global competition.
Higher Education Marketing Today• Marketing in higher education is in crisis – too many colleges doing the same thing• What is your competitive strategy?• Need to drill down and define what makes an institution distinct. – Product – Experience – Outcomes – Impact – PerceptionsSource: Eduvantis Dimensions of Competition Model – eduvantis.com
#3 Foreign Students and foreign demand will continue to increase. Develop programs and products that resonate and provide measureable value/outcomes.
Foreign StudentsMore emphasis on foreign students and training for foreignuniversities – By 2025, 8 million students will have to travel to a foreign country to study, 3x more than today. – The universities of India and China are being held back by poor quality of teaching. Someone must train professors of the future.
#4 Strategically develop and manage the “user experience” of your programs – both online and in person. The experience is a key differentiator – delight and educate.
#5Focus on outcomes and assessment –always ask what is the value youprovide and how can you measure it.Students will continue to focus moreon outcomes in their decision making.
Thank YouGrant Sabatierglsabatier@gmail.comMartin Van Der Werfmartyvdw@gmail.com