A history of the next ten years slides

1. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
A HISTORY OF THE NEXT TEN
YEARS (Again!)
Stephen Aguilar-Millan
Director of Research
The European Futures Observatory
stephena@eufo.org
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years

2. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
The Structure For This Afternoon
• Introducing the speaker and the topic.
• Presentation (45 minutes)
- Modelling the long term future
- The key trends 2010-20
- The key trends 2020-30
- The world in 2030
• Comfort break and beverage top up (15 minutes)
• Discussion and follow up (45 minutes)
• The future of Edinburgh Futurists (15 minutes)

3. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
Why do we use long term models?
Long Term models help us to link the past and the present to the
future.
A History Of The Next Ten Years
They provide a device to explain what has happened in our recent
past, and how it shapes today.
They also provide a device by which we can anticipate what is likely to
happen in the future.
They are not an accurate predictive device owing to discontinuities in
trends and the impact of unforeseen circumstances.
We shall examine an example of a Political, Economic, Social, and
Technological long term model to gain a glimpse of our near future in
the coming decade.

4. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
Long Term Political Change.
Collective
Market
Community
Individual
1945-1964
1964-1986
1986-2007
2007-2025?
2025?-2045?

5. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
Long Term Economic Change.
2010-20 heralded a long winter.
2020-30 could herald the thaw and the onset of spring.

6. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
Long Term Social Change (2009).
1945-1964 1964-1983 1983-2007 2007-2025 2025-2045
Post crisis
adjustment
Awakening Unravelling Crisis Post crisis
adjustment
Youth Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)
Millennial
(Hero)
Homeland
(Artist)
Scarcity
(Prophet)
Adulthood Silent
(Artist)
Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)
Millennial
(Hero)
Homeland
(Artist)
Mid-Life GI
(Hero)
Silent
(Artist)
Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)
Millennial
(Hero)
Golden Years Lost
(Nomad)
GI
(Hero)
Silent
(Artist)
Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)

7. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
Long Term Social Change (2019).
1945-1964 1964-1983 1983-2007 2007-2025 2025-2045
Post crisis
adjustment
Awakening Unravelling Crisis Post crisis
adjustment
Youth Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)
Millennial
(Hero)
Generation Z
(Artist)
Scarcity
(Prophet)
Adulthood Silent
(Artist)
Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)
Millennial
(Hero)
Generation Z
(Artist)
Mid-Life GI
(Hero)
Silent
(Artist)
Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)
Millennial
(Hero)
Independent
Elders
Lost
(Nomad)
GI
(Hero)
Silent
(Artist)
Boomer
(Prophet)
Generation X
(Nomad)
Dependent
Elders
Silent
(Artist)
Boomer
(Prophet)

8. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
Long Term Technological Change.
Degree of
diffusion
Time
The Age Of
Information
The Age Of
Scarcity
1971 2001 2008 2030
Crisis of maturity
Growth Phase
Frenzy
Eruption
Eruption
Maturity Phase
Maturity
Synergy

9. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
What does this mean for the decade
ahead?
Our models suggest the features of the decade 2020-30 to be:
1. Politics to move away from market based provision to the
collective provision of public services with an emphasis on the
community.
2. A gradual improvement in the standards of living as productivity
and incomes start to rise.
3. A change in the relations between the generations as the Boomers
dominate social policy during the decade.
4. The maturing of the ICT revolution and the pre-eruption phase of
the Green Wave.

10. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
An Overlay Of Trends 2009
Our long term models of the future provide the backdrop in which the
future will occur. On top of the backdrop is an overlay of long term
trends in which the future will play out.
We considered the most significant five trends for the decade to be:
 The Great Re-Balancing Act.
 The Reform Of Big Brother.
 The New Enlightenment.
 The New Nationalism.
 The Icarus Effect.

11. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
An Overlay Of Trends 2019
The five trends from 2009 still have a long way to play out. What are
the additional factors ought to be taken into account for the decade
2020-30?
We consider the most significant five trends for the decade ahead to be:
1. The Four Generation Family.
2. The Return Of Geography And Place.
3. The Siege Economy.
4. Techlash.
5. The Warming Planet.

12. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
The World In 2030
• There is still much to play for. The decade ahead still has to play
out to a larger degree and the future is not predetermined.
• Politics is likely to be more local, with a focus on local communities
and collectively provided public services.
• The economy has the potential for a decade of improvement with
improving living standards and increased prosperity, more widely
shared.
• Society is likely to be more aged than currently, with large numbers
of Boomers moving into dependent elderhood, placing great strains
upon families and communities.
• Technology could well be humming as the Green Wave of
technology starts to erupt into existence.

13. EUFO
THE EUROPEAN
FUTURES
OBSERVATORY
© The European Futures Observatory 2020
A History Of The Next Ten Years
Thank You.
Thank you for listening to the
presentation.
If you would like to learn more about
the ideas presented, or to look at the
argument in greater depth, we have
published a short book outlining our
ideas for the next decade.
The book is available exclusively on
Amazon.