Full video here: www.catchtalk.tv/events/gfia2014/videos/peter-black-director-of-one-health-australian-department-of-agriculture-fisheries-and-forestry

1. MR
PETER
BLACK
DIRECTOR
OF
ONE
HEALTH
AUSTRALIAN
DEPARTMENT
OF
AGRICULTURE,
FISHERIES
AND
FORESTRY

2. Food system trade-offs:
what do we really want ?
Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture
3-5 February, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Peter
Black
BVSc
MPVM
MSc
MACVSc
Director,
One
Health
Contact:
peter.black@daff.gov.au

3. Generic Foresight Process
Inputs
Analysis
Interpretation
Prospection
Outputs
Strategy
look and see what’s happening
“what seems to be happening?”
“what’s really happening?”
“what might we need to do?”
“what will we do?”
“how will we do it?”
Foresight
Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
“what might happen?”

4. Possible, Probable and Preferred Futures
Possible Futures
Preferred future
Probable Futures
Today Tomorrow
Adapted from

5. Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (2005)
Context
GFIA 2014

6. Focus: Consequences of Ecosystem Change
for Human Well-being
GFIA 2014

7. Scale issues
Research variables Key issues
Global
Regional
National/Landscape
Community
Group
Individual
Where to focus? It depends!!!
Slide draws on work from David Waltner – Toews
GFIA 2014

8. Useful metrics to consider
GFIA 2014

9. The human dimension
GFIA 2014
Source: Robert Gonsalves paintings