Transforming Science Education in An Age of Misinformation
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Keynote at theNorthwest Commission on Colleges and Universities annual meeting. I argue that if we want to address science misinformation on social media and beyond, we need to teach (1) data reasoning and (2) an understanding of the social process of science.
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Transforming Science Education in An Age of Misinformation
- 1. Transforming Science Education in An Age of Misinformation Carl T. Bergstrom University of Washington NWCCU 2022 Seattle, WA Nov 4th, 2022 Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 2. It was only a matter of time. In 2020, our luck ran out. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 3. The COVID pandemic upended all of our lives. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 4. Everyone had to become an epidemiologist. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 5. People had to rely on social and traditional media to understand what was happening. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 6. And somehow a large fraction ended up not trusting science. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 7. Scene from Contagion (2009)
- 9. What happened? Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 10. Enormous scientific uncertainty around an entirely new virus Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 11. A public desperate for definitive answers Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 12. What is the infection fatality rate? How fast does it spread? Are some infections asymptomatic? Are kids less susceptible? Is there pre-symptomatic transmission? What are the long-term consequences? How long does immunity last? Does Alpha spread faster? How effective are the various vaccines? How many cases are there? Are monoclonal antibodies effective? Does Gamma escape prior immunity? Will we need vaccine boosters?
- 13. No way for responsible experts to provide them. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 14. An information ecosystem designed to meet demand — whether accurate, or not.
- 15. The result: a massive uncertainty vacuum, into which flowed… Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 22. Sloppy reporting
- 23. Overhyped press releases, credulously repeated
- 24. People who see a crisis as a career opportunity.
- 25. Cherry-picked anecdotes and studies Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 26. And all of this wrapped in the authority of numbers Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 27. Photo: Carl Bergstrom People didn’t know who to trust.
- 28. Some ended up following questionable sources. Others just gave up. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 29. The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” — Garry Kasparov (2016) . Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 30. Photo: Carl Bergstrom If we can be convinced that half of our fellow citizens are evil, irrational, or can’t be reasoned with, we begin to lose faith in democracy.
- 31. Photo: Carl Bergstrom Science education has to adapt to a world of social media misinformation and disinformation.
- 32. My view circa 2015: Teach data reasoning Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 33. We are swimming in a sea of information We swim in a sea of information Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 34. Much of it is digital. Quantitative. Data-driven Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 35. …and much of that is nonsense. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 36. We’re good at spotting misleading words. Photo: Carl Bergstrom≈
- 37. Numbers are a lot harder. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 38. Numbers feel technical, arcane, scary. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 39. Numbers seem to come straight from nature. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 40. Numbers have become central to how we reason and to how we communicate
- 41. But we are reluctant to challenge numbers
- 42. This is a big problem because numbers can be every bit as subjective as words. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 43. Photo: Carl Bergstrom Numbers are used to make us feel alone—and helpless.
- 44. And so numbers are power. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 45. But we aren’t teaching our students to question numbers. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 46. Our STEM students excel at mechanics… but never learn to think critically. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 51. Data visualization Big data / ML / AI Media literacy Nature of science Positive Not positive bupropion SR (Wellbutrin SR) citalopram (Celexa) duloxetine (Cymbalta) escitalopram (Lexapro) fluoxetine (Prozac) mirtazapine (Remeron) nefazodone (Serzone) paroxetine (Paxil) sertraline (Zoloft) paroxetine CR (Paxil CR) venlafaxine (Effexor) venlafaxine XR (Effexor XR) 42 43 9 44 10 21 27 45 66 4 11 22 28 36 46 67 5 12 17 23 29 37 47 58 68 6 13 18 24 30 38 48 59 61 69 72 1 7 14 19 25 31 39 49 60 62 71 73 32 51 56 Journal view Positive Not positive 42 43 26 44 9 21 27 45 66 10 17 22 28 36 46 67 4 11 18 23 29 37 47 58 68 72 1 5 12 19 24 30 38 48 59 61 69 73 2 6 13 20 25 31 39 49 60 62 70 74 3 7 14 32 40 50 63 71 8 15 33 41 51 64 16 34 52 65 35 53 54 55 56 57 FDA view Clinical trial outcomes Different perspectives TOPICS Selection bias Correlation & causation Presentation of numbers Refutation
- 52. Algorithm ? Data Data Data Output Even when you don’t know how an algorithm or statistical test works, you can spot bullshit by looking carefully at what goes in and what comes out. Interpretation
- 53. Who is telling me this? How do they know it? What are they trying to sell me? Photo: Carl Bergstrom Media literacy
- 54. Lateral reading Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 55. Recent changes in our social systems have been Drastic. Opaque. Massive in scale. Effectively unregulated. …and designed not to promote sustainability or human happiness, but rather via engineering decisions to maximize corporate profits. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 56. Numbers must be presented in context. That means they must allow us to make relevant comparisons. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 58. That’s 22.2 billion dollars a year. This is less than half a percent of the US budget. This is 67 dollars per capita in the US. Given the estimated 8 trillion dollar cost of the pandemic to the US economy, we could spend 22 billion a year for centuries and still come out ahead.
- 59. Goodhart’s law (rephrased by Marilyn Strathern) When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Campbell’s law (rephrased by Carl Bergstrom) When a measure becomes a target, people to do stupid things. Quantification and incentives
- 60. 9.9.20 Iowa Starting Line
- 61. Selection bias
- 62. Causality
- 64. Forbes
- 65. Machine learning and artificial intelligence
- 66. But what is that AI actually looking at? Zech 2018; Zech et al. 2018
- 69. Designers have great latitude to determine how you feel about the data. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 70. What I am thinking today: Teach the social nature of science. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 71. Photo: Carl Bergstrom Recall the problem: people don’t know who to trust.
- 72. Data reasoning is valuable. But it’s not enough. No one figures out everything on their own. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 75. The enlightenment idea of knowledge solely through individual rationality is dead. Our world has become far too complex. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 76. Denialists often use the “do your own research” trope against science. I’m “not some sort of anti-vaxx flat Earther. I am somebody who’s a critical thinker. I “did [my] own research.”
- 78. Science education must adapt to world of social media misinformation and disinformation. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 80. “The Soviet Union now has—in the combined category of scientists and engineers—a greater number than the United States. And it is producing graduates in these fields at a much faster rate.” President Dwight Eisenhower. November 13th, 1957 Radio and Television Address to the American People on "Our Future Security."
- 81. “This trend is disturbing. Indeed, according to my scientific advisers, this is for the American people the most critical problem of all….We need scientists in the ten years ahead. They say we need them by thousands more than we are now presently planning to have.”
- 82. “We should…have a system of nation-wide testing of high school students; a system of incentives for high aptitude students to pursue scientific or professional studies; a program to stimulate good-quality teaching of mathematics and science; provision of more laboratory facilities; and measures, including fellowships, to increase the output of qualified teachers.”
- 86. Competent outsiders are ”people who have learned to recognize the moments when science has some bearing on their needs and interests and to interact with sources of scientific expertise in ways that help them achieve their own goals.” Noah Feldstein (2011) Science Education 95:168-185
- 87. The public needs to know enough about how science works to know why (and when) it is trustworthy Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 88. 2011
- 89. Core competencies for disciplinary practice “Studying biology means practicing the skills of posing problems, generating hypotheses, designing experiments, observing nature, testing hypotheses, interpreting and evaluating data, and determining how to follow up on the findings. In effect, learning science means learning to do science.”
- 90. Every one of these competencies could be carried out alone, without outside human contact
- 91. We need to teach how science works as a social institution. Photo: Carl Bergstrom
- 95. Peer review Photo: Carl Bergstrom