Speaker: John Robinson Inoni Managing Director United Kingdom

1. Continuity and Resilience (CORE)
ISO 22301 BCM Consulting Firm
Presentations by speakers at the
6th Middle East Business & IT Resilience Summit
Mar 30, 2017 at The Address – Dubai Mall
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2. GEOPOLITICAL CONTINUITY

3. Contents
Our GPR Risk
Climate
01
Understanding
the Situation
02
Impact Analysis
03
The Effect of
Insurance
04
The Outcome
for Planning
05
Conclusions
06

4. 01 Geopolitical Risk Climate
• Increasing cyber-threats against organisations, infrastructure and governments
• Growing regional no-go zones, live conflicts Syria, Ukraine, Yemen, Iraq, North Korea
• Greater US introspection and discontinuity, Trump election and policy uncertainty
• European political fragmentation, populism, xenophobia, protectionism, Brexit
• Rise of political technology (GAFM) opaque, non-democratic, unpredictable, invisible
• Russian austerity and opportunism, Turkey, Syria and Ukraine, with eyes on EU
• China economic expansion and globalisation, Africa
• Failed states and power vacuums
• Extremist groups and insurgencies, ISIS

5. • Mostly people-related but may combine with other risk sources
• Hot spots act as ignition points, media and Internet transform, accelerate and amplify
• Butterfly effect, becoming more chaotic and unpredictable as we add energy
• Faster transmission and more manipulation mean LESS TIME to detect, understand and respond
• Characterised by high uncertainty and surprise for those who failed to foresee outcomes
02 Understanding the Situation

6. 02 Organisational Effects
• Take two similar organisations faced with Brexit.
• One survives, the other fails due to GPR in its customer base and supply
chain.
• GPR is a reflection of where you are, what you do, how you connect.
• It suggests a whole-environment risk viewpoint to manage continuity.

7. 03 Impact Analysis
Geopolitical risks make us consider global socio-economic and political impacts. We feel these
via:
Then cumulatively via loss of revenue, growth, reputation, compliance, work, wealth and well-
being
• Restrictions on trade and movement of goods
• Commodity price volatility
• Supply chain disruption
• Loss of access to markets, demand, influence or funding
• Termination of operating license
• Safety and welfare of staff
• Physical loss of access
• Availability and cost of labour, border controls

8. 04 The Effect of Insurance
• Business Interruption insurance cover for 3 years.
• Financial impact within this time is nil BUT it could take 18 months to rebuild.
• In fact impact is shifted to customer retention and reputation.
• Rebuild must be fast BUT re-supplying customers must be near-immediate.
• Changed emphasis to alternatives, re-invention, white-labelling, outsourcing, modifying lines,
surplus capacity, strategic re-alignment.

9. 05 The Outcome for Planning
• GPR can close countries. Few alternatives (for manufacturers) means self-sufficiency.
• We must find the capacity to keep strategic clients. Crisis comms.
• Insurance relegates non-catastrophic incidents. Fewer scenarios but regional or global scale.
• Do we contain impact or share it? Which lines do we keep and which do we sacrifice?
• Influences business-as-usual strategic thinking. We MUST have a working solution.

10. 06 Conclusions
• We all have a unique GPR profile but manufacturers may be more vulnerable.
• Business decisions surround creation of affordable capacity.
• Insurance buys time and simplifies plans but doesn’t replace them.