National climate plans known as INDCs have been submitted by over 180 countries representing over 95% of global emissions. Analyses show that while the INDCs will reduce emissions and warming compared to prior commitments, they will not be enough to keep warming below 2°C. Most INDCs from developing countries contain conditional targets contingent on receiving financial support. While the INDC process engaged almost all countries, continued increased ambition and implementation will be needed to close remaining emissions gaps and meet climate goals.

1. Review on submitted INDCs and
the road to the implementation
of NDCs
Frauke Roeser, f.roeser@newclimate.org
“Developing Building Blocks of a Global Mitigation
Architecture”
5 December 2015, Paris COP 21

2. Outline
Overview of INDC submissions
What do INDCs mean in terms of the 2°C limit?
Implications of the conditionality of INDCs
What has the INDC process achieved?
What next?
5/12/2015 Frauke Roeser 2

3. INDCs: unprecedented engagement
5/12/2015 Frauke Roeser 3
 153 submissions
o representing 181 Parties; and
o Over 95% of total global GHG emissions
Source: http://files.newclimate.org/indc-preparation-progress/, NewClimate Institute survey for UNFCCC and UNDP

4. INDCs move emissions and
temperature but not enough
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Source: Climate Action Tracker, 1 October 2015,
http://climateactiontracker.org/assets/publications/CAT_global_temperature
_update_October_2015.pdf
Summ
Nationa
synthes
of 11am
with the
promise
announc
2030 ar
reflectin
where o
availabl
result fr
about 0
There is still a large emissions g
For 1.5°C the 2025 gap is
improvement in the level of mit
With current INDCs, the emissio
There is a major risk that if cu
strengthened every five years, s
by all the most vulnerable cou
fundamentally threatened.
Of the 19 INDCs rated by the
been rated as “sufficient.” Inst
“medium,” and eight, which c
sufficient but cover only 0.4%
information.
Based on the climate action pr

5. Increase in GHG targets
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Actions only
Non GHG target and actions
GHG target (standalone or in
combination with other targets/actions)
INDCs Copenhagen Pledges

6. Conditionality of INDCs
Of 138 INDCs submitted by 19th November 2015, 76% of
contained conditional contributions (WRI CAIT 2015):
59 (43%) have both unconditional and conditional components to
their targets
39 (33%) include only conditional contributions
This includes 20% of submissions from high-income
countries, and 80% of submissions from lower - and middle-
income countries.
5/12/2015 Frauke Roeser 6

7. Types of conditions
Financial
80% of conditions are financial
Few clearly specify volume
Other
Increased collective ambition
Framework and elements of the new agreement
Provision of other support
General statements “if circumstances allow”
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8. Climate related implications
Total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will be in the range of
53.1 GtCO2e (full implementation of unconditional contributions and no
further action) and 58.6 GtCO2e (full implementation of unconditional
and conditional contributions) (UNFCCC 2015)
Implementation of the INDC will limit temperature to only well above
2°C
UNEP gap:
Below 3-4°C (66% chance) unconditional
Below 3-3.5°C (66% chance) conditional
Climate action Tracker:
+2.7°C (50% chance, range 2.2 to 3.4) and below 3°C with 66%
chance unconditional
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9. Other implications
Process
Lack of transparency – increased uncertainty
How to determine compliance and „activation“ of
conditional contribution?
Finance & support
Support needs remain unclear
Unclear how conditionality relates to Article 4.3 UNFCCC –
efforts by developing countries subject to receipt of support
Distinction between conditional and unconditional difficult in
reality
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10. Outline
Overview of INDC submissions
What do INDCs mean in terms of the 2°C goal?
Conditionality of INDCs?
What has the INDC process achieved?
What next?
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11. INDCs as catalyst
National climate change processes were
kick-started, consolidated and enhanced
Capacity for climate planning was
increased
INDC processes accelerated countries’
mitigation actions and commitments
Pre-2020 ambition was indirectly
enhanced
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Mitigationpartnership.net/in
dcs-catalysts-climate-action

12. Impacts of the INDC process
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13. Impacts of the INDC process (cont.)
5/12/2015 Frauke Roeser 13

14. Outline
Overview of INDC submissions
What do INDCs mean in terms of the 2°C limit?
Implications of the conditionality of INDCs
What has the INDC process achieved?
What next?
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15. Way forward?
Quantum leap in engagement – important to maintain
(political) momentum
Two major challenges
Increase level of ambition
Implementation
Continued support to
Analyse technical options
Understand finance and support needs
Implementation plans
Potential key role of co-benefit assessments …

16. Missed co benefits of INDCs –
Fossil fuel imports

17. Missed co benefits of INDCs –
air pollution

18. Missed co-benefits of INDCs – job
creation

19. Conclusions
Systematic assessment and disclosure of co-
benefits
Increases and maintain political buy-in
Engages line ministries and stakeholders at the sector
level
Increase cost-effectiveness of policies
Contributes to clearer understanding of actual finance and
support needs
Increases willingness to increase level of ambition and
implement mitigation activities

20. Contact details:
Frauke Roeser
f.roeser@newclimate.org
www.newclimate.org
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21. Back-up
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22. UNEP GAP Report
22• Source: UNEP gap report:
http://uneplive.unep.org/media/docs/theme/13/EGR_2015_301115_lores.pd
f

23. INDCs Move emissions and temperature but not
enough
23• Source: UNFCCC synthesis report
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/07.pdf
mitigation.
Figure 2
Comparison of global emission levelsresulting from theintended nationally
determined contributionsin 2025 and 2030 with other trajectories
Source: AR5 scenario database, IPCC historical emission database and INDC quantification.
Abbreviations: AR4 = Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, AR5 = Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC,
GHG = greenhouse gas, GWP = global warming potential, HST = high short-term target, INDCs = intended nationally
determined contributions, IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

24. Challenges in INDC preparation: Overview of challenges
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Lack of high level political support / mandate
Conflict with other political priorities
Difficulties to assess the level of fairness and ambition
Limited understanding of how to formulate the INDC
Lack of coordination with and between various ministries
Lack of understanding of the objective amongst ministries
Lack of progress in other parallel climate strategy processes
Difficulties to consult broader non-governmental stakeholders
Lack of capacity/ personnel
Limited availability of information / expertise on technical options
Limited synchronisation between the political & technical process
Difficulties to assess economic impacts and co-benefits
Difficulties to assess financial and support needs
Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree
Source: NewClimate Institute survey of 52 developing countries October 2015

25. Challenges in INDC preparation: Overview of challenges
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Lack of high level political support / mandate
Conflict with other political priorities
Difficulties to assess the level of fairness and ambition
Limited understanding of how to formulate the INDC
Lack of coordination with and between various ministries
Lack of understanding of the objective amongst ministries
Lack of progress in other parallel climate strategy processes
Difficulties to consult broader non-governmental stakeholders
Lack of capacity/ personnel
Limited availability of information / expertise on technical options
Limited synchronisation between the political & technical process
Difficulties to assess economic impacts and co-benefits
Difficulties to assess financial and support needs
Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree
Technical
issues
remain key
Political
landscape
improving
 Fewer than ¼ of countries lacked strong political mandate and very few
reported the low priority of climate change policy as a barrier
 Ca. ⅔ of countries faced barriers with assessment of technical options,
impacts, financial and support needs.
 Political and technical processes remain too disjointed

26. Challenges in INDC preparation: Extent
of challenges faced
INDC preparation was not a
straightforward undertaking for
most developing countries
79%
of consulted developing
countries report minor or major
difficulties or delays in the INDC
preparation process
29%
experienced major delays of
several months
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Difficulties/delays
experienced
No significant
difficulties/delays
Proportionofconsultedcountries
Minor (several weeks delay) na
Source: NewClimate Institute survey of 52 developing countries October 2015
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27. Example – EU Natural gas
demand