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This work is compiled to present
up-to-date information on debt stock and borrowing indicators of
Turkey.
Last update: June 30, 2017
DEBT INDICATORS
333
With the fiscal disipline and efficient debt management implemented
in recent years in Turkey;
 EU defined debt stock declined under EU-28 averages,
 Net public debt stock has been reduced as percentage of
GDP,
 Ratio of interest expentidures to tax income has been
decreased sharply,
 Significant progress has been achieved in terms of maturity
and foreign exchange composition of debt stock.
Current Situation in Debt Management
43.8
40.0
36.4
32.6
31.3
28.6
27.5 28.3 28.9
57.7
50.8
38.1
44.7
38.2
72.1
65.7
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1
444
General Government Gross Debt Stock
(EU Defined, % of GDP)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
555
EU Defined Debt Stock (% of GDP)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Euro Area (18 countries) 84.0 86.3 89.6 91.6 92.2 90.4 89.3
EU (27 countries) 78.5 81.2 83.9 85.7 86.7 84.9 83.5
Greece 146.2 172.1 159.6 177.4 179.7 177.4 179.0
Italy 115.4 116.5 123.4 129.0 131.8 132.1 132.6
Portugal 96.2 111.4 126.2 129.0 130.6 129.0 130.4
Belgium 99.7 102.6 104.3 105.6 106.7 106.0 105.9
Spain 60.1 69.5 85.7 95.5 100.4 99.8 99.4
France 81.6 85.2 89.5 92.3 94.9 95.6 96.0
United Kingdom 76.0 81.6 85.1 86.2 88.1 89.0 89.3
Austria 82.8 82.6 82.0 81.3 84.4 85.5 84.6
Hungary 80.5 80.7 78.2 76.6 75.7 74.7 74.1
Germany 81.0 78.7 79.9 77.5 74.9 71.2 68.3
Netherlands 59.3 61.6 66.4 67.7 67.9 65.2 62.3
Turkey 40.0 36.4 32.6 31.3 28.6 27.5 28.3
Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 03-05-2017); Undersecretariat of Treasury, (As of March 31, 2017)
666
EU Defined General Government Debt Stock
(*) Composed of nominal adjustment of zero coupon securities and valuation of inflation indexed bonds, the stock of circulating coins issued by Treasury,
securities held by central government institutions
(**) Composed of securities held by the rest of the public sector.
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
(Million TL) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
A. GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT STOCK 486,947 534,145 549,038 606,563 633,619 702,174 791,314 827,303
Central Government 474,146 519,070 532,901 586,192 612,516 678,245 759,668 793,440
Rest of the Public Sector 12,801 15,076 16,137 20,371 21,103 23,929 31,645 33,864
B. DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK 361,220 377,870 396,841 416,399 429,339 456,829 490,744 507,006
Central Government 352,841 368,778 386,542 403,007 414,649 440,124 468,644 483,348
Rest of the Public Sector 8,379 9,091 10,299 13,392 14,690 16,705 22,099 23,658
C. EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK 125,727 156,275 152,197 190,164 204,280 245,345 300,570 320,297
Central Government 121,305 150,291 146,359 183,185 197,868 238,121 291,024 310,092
Rest of the Public Sector 4,422 5,984 5,837 6,979 6,412 7,224 9,546 10,206
D. ADJUSTMENT ITEMS -22,957 -26,665 -36,959 -40,658 -47,909 -59,130 -58,534 -54,647
Central Government (*) 20,696 24,361 21,312 22,398 26,951 28,516 37,779 45,220
Rest of the Public Sector (**) -43,653 -51,025 -58,271 -63,055 -74,860 -87,646 -96,314 -99,867
EU DEFINED GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT STOCK (A+D) 463,990 507,481 512,079 565,905 585,710 643,044 732,779 772,656
EU DEFINED GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT STOCK / GDP (%) 40.0 36.4 32.6 31.3 28.6 27.5 28.3 28.9
777
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
I- Public Gross Debt Stock 496.8 546.0 562.7 622.9 649.9 722.1 819.5 853.4
• Central Government 474.1 519.1 532.9 586.2 612.5 678.2 759.7 793.4
• Rest of the Public Sector 22.6 27.0 29.8 36.7 37.4 43.8 59.8 60.0
II- Assets and Public Sector
Deposit
179.3 256.4 322.3 425.6 463.1 561.1 600.6 621.3
• Central Bank Net Assets 86.2 143.2 189.5 271.1 304.4 376.2 397.1 411.6
• Public Sector Deposits 47.2 59.8 71.6 84.2 77.4 91.8 100.3 103.0
• Unemployment Insurance Fund 45.9 53.5 61.2 70.4 81.4 93.1 103.2 106.7
III- Public Net Debt Stock 317.5 289.6 240.5 197.2 186.8 161.0 218.9 232.1
888
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
215.3
250.8
274.5
270.1
257.9
247.9
267.1
309.0
317.5
289.6
240.5
197.2
186.8
161.0
218.9
232.1
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Q1
999
Public Net Debt Stock (% of GDP)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
25.5
30.3 29.0 30.0
26.5 25.1 24.1
28.5 26.6
20.2 18.4 15.3 12.9 9.7 9.8 9.6
34.4 23.2
18.5
10.0
6.2
3.1 2.7
2.5
0.8
0.5
-3.1 -4.4 -3.8 -2.8 -1.4 -0.9
59.9
53.6
47.6
40.1
32.7
28.2 26.8
30.9
27.3
20.8
15.3
10.9
9.1
6.9 8.4 8.7
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Q1
TL FX Denominated/Indexed
101010
53,6
58,4 62,3 62,7
68,6 66,1
70,8 73,3 70,3 72,5 68,7 67,7 64,9 61,7 60,8
46,4
41,6 37,7 37,3
31,4 33,9
29,2 26,7 29,7 27,5 31,3 32,3 35,1 38,3 39,2
0
25
50
75
100
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017May
TL Foreign Exchange
Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
111111
48,9
53,9 50,2 54,0 55,8 57,0 53,5 56,0 59,2 59,8 61,5 65,2 67,6 69,8 71,5
51,1
46,1 49,8 46,0 44,2 43,0 46,5 44,0 40,8 40,2 38,5 34,8 32,4 30,2 28,5
0
25
50
75
100 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017May
Fixed Floating
Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
121212
Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt in TL (%)
36,9
45,2
51,3 49,0 51,4 50,2 51,2
47,0 49,8 51,7 52,2 52,6 56,6 58,3 59,5 61,2
63,1
54,8
48,7 51,0 48,6 49,8 48,8
53,0 50,2 48,3 47,8 47,4 43,4 41,7 40,5 38,8
0
25
50
75
100
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017May
Fixed Floating
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
131313
Sensitivity of General Government Debt to GDP Ratio
2001 2016
Change in real exchange rate app/dep
by 5 percent
+ / - 2.1 points + / - 0.6 points
Change in TL interest rate by 500bp + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.8 points
Change in GDP growth rate by
2 percentage points
+ / - 1.6 points + / - 0.5 points
Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by ESA standards) are
measured by deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2016 stock realizations.
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
141414
Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey (Billion USD)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
Billion USD 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
TOTAL 208.0 249.9 280.8 268.7 291.6 303.7 339.5 389.7 401.7 395.9 404.9 412.4
SHORT TERM 42.9 43.1 52.5 49.0 77.2 81.6 100.2 130.3 131.6 101.9 98.0 102.2
LONG TERM 165.1 206.8 228.3 219.7 214.4 222.1 239.3 259.4 270.2 294.0 306.9 310.1
PUBLIC SECTOR 71.6 73.5 78.3 83.5 89.1 94.3 104.0 115.9 117.7 113.1 119.7 122.9
SHORT TERM 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.6 4.3 7.0 11.0 17.6 17.9 14.6 16.3 16.5
LONG TERM 69.8 71.4 75.1 79.9 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 98.5 103.4 106.4
CBRT 15.7 15.8 14.1 13.2 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.8
SHORT TERM 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
LONG TERM 13.1 13.5 12.2 11.4 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.7
PRIVATE SECTOR 120.7 160.6 188.4 172.0 191.0 200.1 228.4 268.5 281.6 281.4 284.4 288.7
SHORT TERM 38.5 38.7 47.4 43.6 71.4 73.3 88.1 111.9 113.4 87.2 81.6 85.6
LONG TERM 82.2 121.9 141.0 128.4 119.6 126.8 140.3 156.7 168.2 194.3 202.7 203.1
151515
Ratios on Gross External Debt of Turkey (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
(*) Source for export data is CBRT's Balance of Payments Statistics, April 2017.
(**) Source for reserves data is CBRT's International Investment Position Statistics, April 2017.
% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 38.0 36.9 36.2 41.5 37.8 36.5 39.0 41.0 43.0 46.0 47.3 49.1
PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT
STOCK / GDP
22.0 23.7 24.3 26.6 24.7 24.1 26.2 28.3 30.1 32.7 33.2 34.4
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT
(FOB) (*)
243.2 233.0 212.7 263.1 256.1 225.1 222.7 256.7 254.9 275.2 284.1 283.0
PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT
STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*)
141.2 149.7 142.7 168.4 167.7 148.3 149.8 176.9 178.6 195.7 199.5 198.1
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (**)
29.3 29.3 25.3 26.3 27.7 25.8 29.4 28.5 26.6 23.5 22.8 21.5
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
SHORT TERM GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT
STOCK (**)
142.1 169.9 135.2 144.4 104.5 96.2 99.8 85.1 81.3 91.2 94.1 86.6
161616
Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey / GDP (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
46.0
47.3
49.1
41.0
43.0
39.0
36.5
37.8
41.5
36.2
54.8
45.9
40.0
34.2
38.0
36.9
30
40
50
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Q1
171717
Interest Payments of External Debt of Turkey / GDP (%)
1.0
1.1 1.1
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.11.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
2.2
2.7
0
1
2
3
4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: CBRT (Balance of Payment Statistics, January 2017), TURKSTAT
181818
(*) As the Treasury’s obligations to the IMF is included in the external liability side of the Monetary Survey table and Gross External Debt Stock, this amount is
subtracted from CBRT’s liabilities in order to avoid double counting.
(**) Central Bank's Banking Survey data, that is not published anymore, was used until 2005. After 2005, Monetary Survey data is used as net foreign assets of
monetary sector.
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
Turkey's Net External Debt Stock (Billion USD)
Billion USD 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
I-Gross ExternalDebtStock,Excluding Banking Sector(A-a-b) 147.8 184.0 209.0 201.1 198.7 204.2 216.1 229.5 227.9 230.7 242.1 245.8
A.Gross ExternalDebtStock ofTurkey 208.0 249.9 280.8 268.7 291.6 303.7 339.5 389.7 401.7 395.9 404.9 412.4
a.CentralBank ofTurkey (-) 15.7 15.8 14.1 13.2 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.8
b.Banks (-) 44.5 50.1 57.7 54.5 81.3 90.1 116.3 154.9 171.3 163.8 162.0 165.8
II-Banking Sector/Monetary SectorNetForeign Assets (**) 39.4 50.0 57.2 54.7 26.0 21.7 26.3 -0.3 -16.5 -21.3 -10.7 -20.9
A.Monetary Authorities and DepositMoney Banks (*) 41.1 53.1 60.9 57.6 31.6 30.8 38.5 15.2 0.0 -4.6 7.7 -1.7
B.Investmentand DevelopmentBanks & Participation Banks -1.7 -3.1 -3.7 -2.9 -5.6 -9.2 -12.2 -15.6 -16.5 -16.6 -18.4 -19.2
III-NET EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (I-II) 108.4 134.0 151.8 146.3 172.7 182.5 189.8 229.9 244.4 252.0 252.8 266.7
NetExternalDebtStock/GDP (%) %19.8 %19.8 %19.5 %22.6 %22.4 %21.9 %21.8 %24.2 %26.1 %29.3 %29.5 %31.7
Memo:
GDP (USD)(***) 547.8 677.4 776.6 646.9 772.4 831.7 871.1 950.4 934.9 861.5 856.8 840.1
191919
Turkey’s Net External Debt / GDP (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
29.3 29.5
31.7
24.2
26.1
19.819.819.8
25.6
30.7
37.4
19.5
22.6 22.4 21.9 21.8
10
20
30
40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Q1
202020
Interest Rates of TL Denominated Zero-Coupon Bonds (annual,
compounding, % )
*As of June, 2017
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
J02
A
J
O
J03
A
J
O
J04
A
J
O
J05
A
J
O
J06
A
J
O
J07
A
J
O
J08
A
J
O
J09
A
J
O
J10
A
J
O
J11
A
J
O
J12
A
J
O
J13
A
J
O
J14
A
J
O
J15
A
J
O
J16
A
J
O
J17
A
Monthly Average
Annual Cumulative
212121
Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
J-08
A-08
J-08
S-08
D-08
M-09
J-09
S-09
D-09
M-10
J-10
S-10
D-10
M-11
J-11
S-11
D-11
M-12
J-12
S-12
D-12
M-13
J-13
S-13
D-13
M-14
J-14
S-14
D-14
M-15
J-15
S-15
D-15
M-16
J-16
S-16
D-16
M-17
J-17
Turkey - EMBI+
EMBI Turkey
EMBI+
222222
Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing (Months)
9,4
11,6
14,8
28,0
34,0
31,7
35,3
44,1 44,7
60,8
74,3
68,5
71,8
67,4 68,4
27,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
200220032004 200520062007 2008200920102011 201220132014 201520162017*
*As of June, 2017
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
23
8.2
9.5 10.1
12.2
9.9
9.0
8.0
17.6
16.5
22.4
14.2 14.8
9.1
20.6 20.2
16.4
19.7
14.4 14.9
10.0
8.0
5.0
6.6
15.715,3
8.6
7.0
20.0
10.010.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Euro Dollar Yen
Average Maturity of Eurobond Issuances (Years)
242424
Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
12,8 12,4 11,8
19,6
22,3
25,7
24,4 25,0
30,9 31,1
46,9
55,0 55,1
51,9 51,0
33,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
M
ay.17
252525
Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
12,8 12,4 11,8
19,6
22,3
25,7 24,4 25,0
30,9 31,1
33,7
47,0
55,0 55,1
51,9 51,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
M
ay.17
262626
Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)
Source: CBRT
4.4
7.1
10.3
13.6 13.4
10.3
8.6
12.4
17.3
23.2
21.5 21.5
17.3 17.3
18.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
272727
TL Denominated Eurobond Issuances of Foreign Corporates (Billion TL)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
J05
M05
S05
J06
M06
S06
J07
M07
S07
J08
M08
S08
J09
M09
S09
J10
M10
S10
J11
M11
S11
J12
M12
S12
J13
M13
S13
J14
M14
S14
J15
M15
S15
J16
M16
S16
J17
M17
Source : Reuters & Bloomberg
282828
Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
0.0
-0.6
0.4
2.6
8.0
5.0
-2.4
-3.6
-3.1
-2.6
-0.5
1.0
-1.3
-1.8
-1.4
-6
-2
2
6
10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
292929
11.2
16.2
3.2
0.6
4.5
1.9
0.5
5.5
5.1
3.6
7.2
16.2
13.8
10.2
0.0
0
4
8
12
16
20
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)
Source: Treasury
30
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017Q1
12.438
31
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments (%)
* Annualized as of May 2017
Source: Treasury
1,52,62,83,4
51,9
27,3
18,1 16,7
19,7
24,7
16,4
22,1
8,2
3,9
6,4
5,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
May*
Undertakings from Treasury Guarantees (Million USD)
32
Source: Treasury
0
100
200
300
400
500 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
May.17
Local Administrations Local Adm.(Investment Guarantees) SOEs Other
333333
Public Sector Primary Surplus / GDP (%) (Program Defined)
(*) 2017-2019: Medium Term Program targets.
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, MTP 2017-2019
2003-2015 Average: 2,1
0,7
1,6
0,9 0,9
0,5 0,6
-1,2
-0,6
0,0
0,9
-1,0
4,6
5,3
4,6
4,3
3,0
1,5
0,5
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1993
-
2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*
3434
11,6
11,2
8,6
5,0
1,0
0,6
1,6 1,8
5,3
3,5
1,3
1,9
1,0 1,1 1,0 1,1
1,9 1,6 1,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2017
2018
2019
Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%)
(*) Provisional
2017-2019: Medium Term Program targets.
Source: Ministry of Finance, 2017-2019 MTP
353535
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
Source: EUROSTAT
Maastricht Criteria: % 3.0
23,7
10,1
8,9
4,4
1,2 1,5
6,5
0,8
0,2
-0,2 -0,4
-1,7
2,9
-0,7
2,3
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012 2013 2014 2015
3636
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)
7,0
11,8
9,7
7,1
-0,1
-1,8
0,1
1,5
4,8
2,2
0,1
0,9
0,4 0,5
0,0
1,7 1,5 1,4
0,9
3,5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1990-2000
Avg.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2017*
2018*
2019*
(*) 2017-2019: Medium Term Program target
Source: Ministry of Development, 2017-2019 MTP
373737
Privatization Implementations (Billion USD)
8,2
59,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1985-2003 2003 - 2016
Source: Privatization Authority
383838
11,0
38,2
56,3
70,9
85,7
31,9
30,1 30,933,4
22,9
16,6 17,4 15,3 14,2 13,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues
(%)
Source: Ministry of Finance
(*) Provisional
393939
Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%)
1,9
2,32,42,83,13,0
4,2
5,35,1
14,4
12,5
9,8
6,8
5,8 5,5
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Source: Ministry of Finance
(*) Provisional
DEBT INDICATORS

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Debt indicators of Turkey

  • 1. 111 This work is compiled to present up-to-date information on debt stock and borrowing indicators of Turkey. Last update: June 30, 2017
  • 3. 333 With the fiscal disipline and efficient debt management implemented in recent years in Turkey;  EU defined debt stock declined under EU-28 averages,  Net public debt stock has been reduced as percentage of GDP,  Ratio of interest expentidures to tax income has been decreased sharply,  Significant progress has been achieved in terms of maturity and foreign exchange composition of debt stock. Current Situation in Debt Management
  • 4. 43.8 40.0 36.4 32.6 31.3 28.6 27.5 28.3 28.9 57.7 50.8 38.1 44.7 38.2 72.1 65.7 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 444 General Government Gross Debt Stock (EU Defined, % of GDP) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
  • 5. 555 EU Defined Debt Stock (% of GDP) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Euro Area (18 countries) 84.0 86.3 89.6 91.6 92.2 90.4 89.3 EU (27 countries) 78.5 81.2 83.9 85.7 86.7 84.9 83.5 Greece 146.2 172.1 159.6 177.4 179.7 177.4 179.0 Italy 115.4 116.5 123.4 129.0 131.8 132.1 132.6 Portugal 96.2 111.4 126.2 129.0 130.6 129.0 130.4 Belgium 99.7 102.6 104.3 105.6 106.7 106.0 105.9 Spain 60.1 69.5 85.7 95.5 100.4 99.8 99.4 France 81.6 85.2 89.5 92.3 94.9 95.6 96.0 United Kingdom 76.0 81.6 85.1 86.2 88.1 89.0 89.3 Austria 82.8 82.6 82.0 81.3 84.4 85.5 84.6 Hungary 80.5 80.7 78.2 76.6 75.7 74.7 74.1 Germany 81.0 78.7 79.9 77.5 74.9 71.2 68.3 Netherlands 59.3 61.6 66.4 67.7 67.9 65.2 62.3 Turkey 40.0 36.4 32.6 31.3 28.6 27.5 28.3 Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 03-05-2017); Undersecretariat of Treasury, (As of March 31, 2017)
  • 6. 666 EU Defined General Government Debt Stock (*) Composed of nominal adjustment of zero coupon securities and valuation of inflation indexed bonds, the stock of circulating coins issued by Treasury, securities held by central government institutions (**) Composed of securities held by the rest of the public sector. Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury (Million TL) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 A. GENERAL GOVERNMENT GROSS DEBT STOCK 486,947 534,145 549,038 606,563 633,619 702,174 791,314 827,303 Central Government 474,146 519,070 532,901 586,192 612,516 678,245 759,668 793,440 Rest of the Public Sector 12,801 15,076 16,137 20,371 21,103 23,929 31,645 33,864 B. DOMESTIC DEBT STOCK 361,220 377,870 396,841 416,399 429,339 456,829 490,744 507,006 Central Government 352,841 368,778 386,542 403,007 414,649 440,124 468,644 483,348 Rest of the Public Sector 8,379 9,091 10,299 13,392 14,690 16,705 22,099 23,658 C. EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK 125,727 156,275 152,197 190,164 204,280 245,345 300,570 320,297 Central Government 121,305 150,291 146,359 183,185 197,868 238,121 291,024 310,092 Rest of the Public Sector 4,422 5,984 5,837 6,979 6,412 7,224 9,546 10,206 D. ADJUSTMENT ITEMS -22,957 -26,665 -36,959 -40,658 -47,909 -59,130 -58,534 -54,647 Central Government (*) 20,696 24,361 21,312 22,398 26,951 28,516 37,779 45,220 Rest of the Public Sector (**) -43,653 -51,025 -58,271 -63,055 -74,860 -87,646 -96,314 -99,867 EU DEFINED GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT STOCK (A+D) 463,990 507,481 512,079 565,905 585,710 643,044 732,779 772,656 EU DEFINED GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT STOCK / GDP (%) 40.0 36.4 32.6 31.3 28.6 27.5 28.3 28.9
  • 7. 777 Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 I- Public Gross Debt Stock 496.8 546.0 562.7 622.9 649.9 722.1 819.5 853.4 • Central Government 474.1 519.1 532.9 586.2 612.5 678.2 759.7 793.4 • Rest of the Public Sector 22.6 27.0 29.8 36.7 37.4 43.8 59.8 60.0 II- Assets and Public Sector Deposit 179.3 256.4 322.3 425.6 463.1 561.1 600.6 621.3 • Central Bank Net Assets 86.2 143.2 189.5 271.1 304.4 376.2 397.1 411.6 • Public Sector Deposits 47.2 59.8 71.6 84.2 77.4 91.8 100.3 103.0 • Unemployment Insurance Fund 45.9 53.5 61.2 70.4 81.4 93.1 103.2 106.7 III- Public Net Debt Stock 317.5 289.6 240.5 197.2 186.8 161.0 218.9 232.1
  • 8. 888 Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 215.3 250.8 274.5 270.1 257.9 247.9 267.1 309.0 317.5 289.6 240.5 197.2 186.8 161.0 218.9 232.1 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
  • 9. 999 Public Net Debt Stock (% of GDP) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 25.5 30.3 29.0 30.0 26.5 25.1 24.1 28.5 26.6 20.2 18.4 15.3 12.9 9.7 9.8 9.6 34.4 23.2 18.5 10.0 6.2 3.1 2.7 2.5 0.8 0.5 -3.1 -4.4 -3.8 -2.8 -1.4 -0.9 59.9 53.6 47.6 40.1 32.7 28.2 26.8 30.9 27.3 20.8 15.3 10.9 9.1 6.9 8.4 8.7 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1 TL FX Denominated/Indexed
  • 10. 101010 53,6 58,4 62,3 62,7 68,6 66,1 70,8 73,3 70,3 72,5 68,7 67,7 64,9 61,7 60,8 46,4 41,6 37,7 37,3 31,4 33,9 29,2 26,7 29,7 27,5 31,3 32,3 35,1 38,3 39,2 0 25 50 75 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017May TL Foreign Exchange Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 11. 111111 48,9 53,9 50,2 54,0 55,8 57,0 53,5 56,0 59,2 59,8 61,5 65,2 67,6 69,8 71,5 51,1 46,1 49,8 46,0 44,2 43,0 46,5 44,0 40,8 40,2 38,5 34,8 32,4 30,2 28,5 0 25 50 75 100 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017May Fixed Floating Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 12. 121212 Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt in TL (%) 36,9 45,2 51,3 49,0 51,4 50,2 51,2 47,0 49,8 51,7 52,2 52,6 56,6 58,3 59,5 61,2 63,1 54,8 48,7 51,0 48,6 49,8 48,8 53,0 50,2 48,3 47,8 47,4 43,4 41,7 40,5 38,8 0 25 50 75 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017May Fixed Floating Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 13. 131313 Sensitivity of General Government Debt to GDP Ratio 2001 2016 Change in real exchange rate app/dep by 5 percent + / - 2.1 points + / - 0.6 points Change in TL interest rate by 500bp + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.8 points Change in GDP growth rate by 2 percentage points + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.5 points Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by ESA standards) are measured by deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2016 stock realizations. Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 14. 141414 Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey (Billion USD) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT Billion USD 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 TOTAL 208.0 249.9 280.8 268.7 291.6 303.7 339.5 389.7 401.7 395.9 404.9 412.4 SHORT TERM 42.9 43.1 52.5 49.0 77.2 81.6 100.2 130.3 131.6 101.9 98.0 102.2 LONG TERM 165.1 206.8 228.3 219.7 214.4 222.1 239.3 259.4 270.2 294.0 306.9 310.1 PUBLIC SECTOR 71.6 73.5 78.3 83.5 89.1 94.3 104.0 115.9 117.7 113.1 119.7 122.9 SHORT TERM 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.6 4.3 7.0 11.0 17.6 17.9 14.6 16.3 16.5 LONG TERM 69.8 71.4 75.1 79.9 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 98.5 103.4 106.4 CBRT 15.7 15.8 14.1 13.2 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 SHORT TERM 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 LONG TERM 13.1 13.5 12.2 11.4 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.7 PRIVATE SECTOR 120.7 160.6 188.4 172.0 191.0 200.1 228.4 268.5 281.6 281.4 284.4 288.7 SHORT TERM 38.5 38.7 47.4 43.6 71.4 73.3 88.1 111.9 113.4 87.2 81.6 85.6 LONG TERM 82.2 121.9 141.0 128.4 119.6 126.8 140.3 156.7 168.2 194.3 202.7 203.1
  • 15. 151515 Ratios on Gross External Debt of Turkey (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT (*) Source for export data is CBRT's Balance of Payments Statistics, April 2017. (**) Source for reserves data is CBRT's International Investment Position Statistics, April 2017. % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 38.0 36.9 36.2 41.5 37.8 36.5 39.0 41.0 43.0 46.0 47.3 49.1 PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 22.0 23.7 24.3 26.6 24.7 24.1 26.2 28.3 30.1 32.7 33.2 34.4 GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*) 243.2 233.0 212.7 263.1 256.1 225.1 222.7 256.7 254.9 275.2 284.1 283.0 PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) (*) 141.2 149.7 142.7 168.4 167.7 148.3 149.8 176.9 178.6 195.7 199.5 198.1 CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (**) 29.3 29.3 25.3 26.3 27.7 25.8 29.4 28.5 26.6 23.5 22.8 21.5 CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / SHORT TERM GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (**) 142.1 169.9 135.2 144.4 104.5 96.2 99.8 85.1 81.3 91.2 94.1 86.6
  • 16. 161616 Gross External Debt Stock of Turkey / GDP (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT 46.0 47.3 49.1 41.0 43.0 39.0 36.5 37.8 41.5 36.2 54.8 45.9 40.0 34.2 38.0 36.9 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1
  • 17. 171717 Interest Payments of External Debt of Turkey / GDP (%) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.11.1 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: CBRT (Balance of Payment Statistics, January 2017), TURKSTAT
  • 18. 181818 (*) As the Treasury’s obligations to the IMF is included in the external liability side of the Monetary Survey table and Gross External Debt Stock, this amount is subtracted from CBRT’s liabilities in order to avoid double counting. (**) Central Bank's Banking Survey data, that is not published anymore, was used until 2005. After 2005, Monetary Survey data is used as net foreign assets of monetary sector. Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT Turkey's Net External Debt Stock (Billion USD) Billion USD 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 I-Gross ExternalDebtStock,Excluding Banking Sector(A-a-b) 147.8 184.0 209.0 201.1 198.7 204.2 216.1 229.5 227.9 230.7 242.1 245.8 A.Gross ExternalDebtStock ofTurkey 208.0 249.9 280.8 268.7 291.6 303.7 339.5 389.7 401.7 395.9 404.9 412.4 a.CentralBank ofTurkey (-) 15.7 15.8 14.1 13.2 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 b.Banks (-) 44.5 50.1 57.7 54.5 81.3 90.1 116.3 154.9 171.3 163.8 162.0 165.8 II-Banking Sector/Monetary SectorNetForeign Assets (**) 39.4 50.0 57.2 54.7 26.0 21.7 26.3 -0.3 -16.5 -21.3 -10.7 -20.9 A.Monetary Authorities and DepositMoney Banks (*) 41.1 53.1 60.9 57.6 31.6 30.8 38.5 15.2 0.0 -4.6 7.7 -1.7 B.Investmentand DevelopmentBanks & Participation Banks -1.7 -3.1 -3.7 -2.9 -5.6 -9.2 -12.2 -15.6 -16.5 -16.6 -18.4 -19.2 III-NET EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (I-II) 108.4 134.0 151.8 146.3 172.7 182.5 189.8 229.9 244.4 252.0 252.8 266.7 NetExternalDebtStock/GDP (%) %19.8 %19.8 %19.5 %22.6 %22.4 %21.9 %21.8 %24.2 %26.1 %29.3 %29.5 %31.7 Memo: GDP (USD)(***) 547.8 677.4 776.6 646.9 772.4 831.7 871.1 950.4 934.9 861.5 856.8 840.1
  • 19. 191919 Turkey’s Net External Debt / GDP (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT 29.3 29.5 31.7 24.2 26.1 19.819.819.8 25.6 30.7 37.4 19.5 22.6 22.4 21.9 21.8 10 20 30 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1
  • 20. 202020 Interest Rates of TL Denominated Zero-Coupon Bonds (annual, compounding, % ) *As of June, 2017 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 J02 A J O J03 A J O J04 A J O J05 A J O J06 A J O J07 A J O J08 A J O J09 A J O J10 A J O J11 A J O J12 A J O J13 A J O J14 A J O J15 A J O J16 A J O J17 A Monthly Average Annual Cumulative
  • 21. 212121 Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp) -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 J-08 A-08 J-08 S-08 D-08 M-09 J-09 S-09 D-09 M-10 J-10 S-10 D-10 M-11 J-11 S-11 D-11 M-12 J-12 S-12 D-12 M-13 J-13 S-13 D-13 M-14 J-14 S-14 D-14 M-15 J-15 S-15 D-15 M-16 J-16 S-16 D-16 M-17 J-17 Turkey - EMBI+ EMBI Turkey EMBI+
  • 22. 222222 Average Maturity of Domestic Borrowing (Months) 9,4 11,6 14,8 28,0 34,0 31,7 35,3 44,1 44,7 60,8 74,3 68,5 71,8 67,4 68,4 27,7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 200220032004 200520062007 2008200920102011 201220132014 201520162017* *As of June, 2017 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 23. 23 8.2 9.5 10.1 12.2 9.9 9.0 8.0 17.6 16.5 22.4 14.2 14.8 9.1 20.6 20.2 16.4 19.7 14.4 14.9 10.0 8.0 5.0 6.6 15.715,3 8.6 7.0 20.0 10.010.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Euro Dollar Yen Average Maturity of Eurobond Issuances (Years)
  • 24. 242424 Time to Maturity of Domestic Debt Stock (Months) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 12,8 12,4 11,8 19,6 22,3 25,7 24,4 25,0 30,9 31,1 46,9 55,0 55,1 51,9 51,0 33,7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M ay.17
  • 25. 252525 Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 12,8 12,4 11,8 19,6 22,3 25,7 24,4 25,0 30,9 31,1 33,7 47,0 55,0 55,1 51,9 51,0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 M ay.17
  • 26. 262626 Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%) Source: CBRT 4.4 7.1 10.3 13.6 13.4 10.3 8.6 12.4 17.3 23.2 21.5 21.5 17.3 17.3 18.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
  • 27. 272727 TL Denominated Eurobond Issuances of Foreign Corporates (Billion TL) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 J05 M05 S05 J06 M06 S06 J07 M07 S07 J08 M08 S08 J09 M09 S09 J10 M10 S10 J11 M11 S11 J12 M12 S12 J13 M13 S13 J14 M14 S14 J15 M15 S15 J16 M16 S16 J17 M17 Source : Reuters & Bloomberg
  • 28. 282828 Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 0.0 -0.6 0.4 2.6 8.0 5.0 -2.4 -3.6 -3.1 -2.6 -0.5 1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -6 -2 2 6 10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 30. Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD) Source: Treasury 30 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 10.000 11.000 12.000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Q1 12.438
  • 31. 31 The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total Guaranteed Payments (%) * Annualized as of May 2017 Source: Treasury 1,52,62,83,4 51,9 27,3 18,1 16,7 19,7 24,7 16,4 22,1 8,2 3,9 6,4 5,4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May*
  • 32. Undertakings from Treasury Guarantees (Million USD) 32 Source: Treasury 0 100 200 300 400 500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 May.17 Local Administrations Local Adm.(Investment Guarantees) SOEs Other
  • 33. 333333 Public Sector Primary Surplus / GDP (%) (Program Defined) (*) 2017-2019: Medium Term Program targets. Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, MTP 2017-2019 2003-2015 Average: 2,1 0,7 1,6 0,9 0,9 0,5 0,6 -1,2 -0,6 0,0 0,9 -1,0 4,6 5,3 4,6 4,3 3,0 1,5 0,5 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1993 - 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019*
  • 34. 3434 11,6 11,2 8,6 5,0 1,0 0,6 1,6 1,8 5,3 3,5 1,3 1,9 1,0 1,1 1,0 1,1 1,9 1,6 1,3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017 2018 2019 Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%) (*) Provisional 2017-2019: Medium Term Program targets. Source: Ministry of Finance, 2017-2019 MTP
  • 35. 353535 EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP) Source: EUROSTAT Maastricht Criteria: % 3.0 23,7 10,1 8,9 4,4 1,2 1,5 6,5 0,8 0,2 -0,2 -0,4 -1,7 2,9 -0,7 2,3 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 36. 3636 Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP) 7,0 11,8 9,7 7,1 -0,1 -1,8 0,1 1,5 4,8 2,2 0,1 0,9 0,4 0,5 0,0 1,7 1,5 1,4 0,9 3,5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1990-2000 Avg. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* (*) 2017-2019: Medium Term Program target Source: Ministry of Development, 2017-2019 MTP
  • 37. 373737 Privatization Implementations (Billion USD) 8,2 59,8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1985-2003 2003 - 2016 Source: Privatization Authority
  • 38. 383838 11,0 38,2 56,3 70,9 85,7 31,9 30,1 30,933,4 22,9 16,6 17,4 15,3 14,2 13,0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues (%) Source: Ministry of Finance (*) Provisional
  • 39. 393939 Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%) 1,9 2,32,42,83,13,0 4,2 5,35,1 14,4 12,5 9,8 6,8 5,8 5,5 0 5 10 15 20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Source: Ministry of Finance (*) Provisional