Economics presentation may 2013

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The Saturday Economist, Quarterly Economics Slide Presentation May 2013

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Economics presentation may 2013

  1. 1. Economics Review May 2013Thursday, 23 May 13
  2. 2. Thursday, 23 May 13
  3. 3. Thursday, 23 May 13
  4. 4. May 2013Economics ReviewThursday, 23 May 13
  5. 5. May 2013Economics ReviewThursday, 23 May 13
  6. 6. Dr John AshcroftApril 2013Thursday, 23 May 13
  7. 7. -3.0-2.0-1.001.02.03.04.05.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20153.53.73.32.92.74.3-2.31.33.94.03.5World GDPThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThe trend rate of growth is 2.7%Data from WorldBank, OECD andIMFThursday, 23 May 13
  8. 8. World GDPThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearData from WorldBank, OECD andIMF2011 2012 2013 2014 2015World 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.5Euro 1.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4USA 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.0China 9.3 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5Japan -0.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4Brazil 2.7 0.9 3.2 3.5 4.0Russia 4.3 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.8India 6.9 5.1 5.5 6.5 7.0Turkey 8.5 2.9 4.0 4.5 5.0Indonesia 6.5 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.6Mexico 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.6 3.6Thursday, 23 May 13
  9. 9. -15.0-10.0-5.005.010.015.020.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20156.76.55.52.55.815.1-12.62.36.68.97.3World TradeThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThe trend rate of growth is 5.5%Trade Multiplier 2.0Data from World Bankand Netherlands WorldTrade Data2012 2013 2014 2015OBR 3.0 4.4 5.9Estimate 2.5 5.5 6.5 6.7Thursday, 23 May 13
  10. 10. -5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.001.02.03.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.21.81.20.20.91.8-4.1-0.12.82.92.4UK GDPThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  11. 11. -7.0-6.0-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.001.02.03.04.05.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013UK GDP Q1quarter on quarterThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  12. 12. -4.0-3.2-2.4-1.6-0.800.81.62.43.20.70.61.51.21.60.72.5-3.5-2.3-2.1UK GDP Q1 Components of growthThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearManufacturingProductionConstructionDistributionHotels & LeisureTransportBusiness Servicesand Finance-5.9Total ServicesGDPGDP ex oiland gas105 156 68140 106 291 233 1000 980770Governmentand otherThursday, 23 May 13
  13. 13. -5.0-4.3-3.6-2.9-2.1-1.4-0.700.71.42.12.93.64.32005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013US GDP Q1quarter on quarterThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  14. 14. 01.32.63.95.26.57.89.110.411.713.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013China GDP Q1quarter on quarterThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA7.7%!Thursday, 23 May 13
  15. 15. The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearEurope GDPThursday, 23 May 13
  16. 16. The UK Economy in Black and White JKAEurope UnemploymentThursday, 23 May 13
  17. 17. The UK Economy in Black and White JKAEurope UnemploymentThursday, 23 May 13
  18. 18. 808590951001051101151202000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013UK GDP (O) IndexTrend Rate 2.9%Trend Rate 1.0%The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearUK GDPLTR 2.4%Output Gap10.4%Thursday, 23 May 13
  19. 19. 80901001101202000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013US GDP IndexTrend Rate 2.4%The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearUS GDPOutput Gap9%Thursday, 23 May 13
  20. 20. 80901001101202000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013US GDP IndexTrend Rate 2.4%The UK Economy in Black and White JKAUS DebtThursday, 23 May 13
  21. 21. 3504004505005506006507002004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13ReceiptsANBVExpenditureANLPUK DebtUK deficit not shrinking quite so fastThursday, 23 May 13
  22. 22. 01.02.03.04.05.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.52.52.42.84.53.32.23.62.42.32.0UK Inflation CPIThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  23. 23. -1.001.02.03.04.05.06.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Inflation CPIPage 2Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+AllServicesGoodsThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAUK Inflation CPI - goods and servicesThursday, 23 May 13
  24. 24. -1.501.53.04.56.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.92.92.83.25.24.6-0.54.04.33.22.8UK Inflation RPIThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  25. 25. 01.83.55.37.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.32.32.22.85.64.21.66.82.32.02.0UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (O)The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  26. 26. -7.507.515.022.530.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.92.82.52.415.410.0-3.221.73.49.911.6UK Inflation Manufacturing Prices (I)The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  27. 27. $0$30$60$90$120$1502004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.ukWeekly Series$ I II III IV2010 76.35 78.37 77.49 87.282011 104.79 116.57 113.57 109.162012 118.83 107.57 110.51 109.762013 112.11 105.00 115.00 118.00Oil Price Brent Crude $ Qtr DataForecastsJohn Ashcroft.co.ukOil Price Watch ......Data SetThursday, 23 May 13
  28. 28. 030.060.090.0120.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015120.00118.00115.00111.87111.2379.8760.9398.9872.4965.2054.58Oil Prices - Brent Crude $The UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  29. 29. 01.02.03.04.05.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.42.01.51.82.41.91.53.53.94.14.1UK EarningsThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  30. 30. -3.0-2.3-1.5-0.800.81.52.33.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-0.1-0.5-0.9-1.0-2.1-1.4-0.7-0.11.51.82.1UK Real Earnings (CPI basis)The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  31. 31. 500.0775.01050.01325.01600.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151,400.01,460.01,500.01,586.71,532.31,497.11,529.1906.0863.3944.7862.1UK Unemployment - claimant countThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA000s1,525Thursday, 23 May 13
  32. 32. 750.01312.51875.02437.53000.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152,381.02,544.02,655.02,687.02,547.02,479.02,394.01,783.01,654.0UK Unemployment - LFS basis 000The UK Economy in Black and White JKA000sThursday, 23 May 13
  33. 33. 3.04.56.07.59.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20157.47.98.38.48.07.97.65.75.4UK Unemployment - LFS basis %The UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  34. 34. UK Unemployment - UV ratioThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  35. 35. -5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013U :V Ratio InvertedPage 2Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+AprilClaimant Count :Vacancies RatioRecessionRecoveryRecoveryThursday, 23 May 13
  36. 36. 01.53.04.56.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.200.750.500.500.500.500.654.685.514.644.65Interest Rates - UK Base rateThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  37. 37. 01.53.04.56.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.200.750.500.500.500.500.654.685.514.644.65Interest Rates - UK Base rateThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAMayThursday, 23 May 13
  38. 38. 01.53.04.56.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20153.102.752.401.913.103.613.654.595.014.504.41Interest Rates - TenYear Gilt RatesThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  39. 39. 050,000100,000150,000200,0002005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/1688,00099,000105,000119,500120,904140,944158,92397,53936,71933,07637,933Government Borrowing PSNBR £The UK Economy in Black and White JKA£000excludes pension fund and gilt transfersThursday, 23 May 13
  40. 40. 03.06.09.012.02005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/164.95.76.28.28.09.611.26.82.62.73.1Government Borrowing PSNBR % GDPThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% GDPThursday, 23 May 13
  41. 41. 0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.02005/6 2007/8 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/161,502.01,398.01,286.01,189.01,103.71,001.5828.7624.0527.2497.8461.7Government Borrowing £millionThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/1535.1 35.8 36.4 44.5 57.1 66.6 71.8 75.4 81.1 82.2% of GDPThursday, 23 May 13
  42. 42. -10.0-7.5-5.0-2.502.55.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.21.5-0.5-1.52.23.8-9.7-2.50.81.70Manufacturing %The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on year-2.4% Q1Thursday, 23 May 13
  43. 43. -15.0-11.3-7.5-3.803.87.511.32005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.91.5-2.5-8.02.48.0-13.4-2.72.10.8-2.5Construction %The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  44. 44. 501001502002008 2009 2010 2011 2012Public New Pvt New Pvt Repairs All WorkThursday, 23 May 13
  45. 45. -3.8-2.5-1.301.32.53.85.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.52.01.51.21.31.1-2.2-0.24.74.13.1Service Sector %The UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearGDP(O) Q1Distribution Transport Business Non Govt Govt2009 -4.3 -6.1 -3.7 -4.3 2.72010 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.62011 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.4 1.02012 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.0 2.0Hotels Leisure Storage,Comms FinancialThursday, 23 May 13
  46. 46. -1.001.02.03.04.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.81.51.41.30.4-0.40.31.03.03.33.2Retail SalesThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change year on yearThursday, 23 May 13
  47. 47. 1.51.71.92.12.32.52005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.42.32.22.01.92.02.02.12.42.32.4UK Car Sales MillionThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAMillion UnitsThursday, 23 May 13
  48. 48. 0.50.81.01.31.51.82005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.81.71.61.51.31.31.01.41.51.41.6UK Car ManufacturingThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAMillion UnitsThursday, 23 May 13
  49. 49. 0.50.70.91.21.41.62005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.51.41.41.31.21.00.81.31.31.21.4UK Car ExportsThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAMillion UnitsThursday, 23 May 13
  50. 50. 1.51.61.81.92.12.22005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20152.22.12.01.91.81.81.81.92.22.12.2UK Car ImportsThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAMillion UnitsThursday, 23 May 13
  51. 51. -1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.202005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.8-1.0-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.8UK Car Net Trade BalanceThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAMillion UnitsThursday, 23 May 13
  52. 52. 05.010.015.020.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201515.514.513.512.510.27.66.55.33.7Retail Sales - onlineThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% of total retail salesThursday, 23 May 13
  53. 53. -120.0-102.5-85.0-67.5-50.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-115.1-112.1-109.1-106.6-100.2-97.2-82.4-93.1-89.8Trade in Goods Deficit £ billionsThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA£ billions chain linked seriesThursday, 23 May 13
  54. 54. 022.545.067.590.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201584.079.075.068.976.350.852.755.446.8Trade in Services Surplus £ billionsThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA£ billions chain linked seriesThursday, 23 May 13
  55. 55. -50.0-37.5-25.0-12.502007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-31.1-33.1-23.9-37.1-23.9-46.4-29.7-37.8-43.0Trade in Goods and Services £ billionsThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA£ billions chain linked seriesThursday, 23 May 13
  56. 56. -9.0-6.8-4.5-2.302.34.56.89.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.51.00.10.1-0.25.8-7.1-6.79.0House Prices - UKThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA% change on prior yearThursday, 23 May 13
  57. 57. 0100.0200.0300.0400.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015165.4157.5150.0142.9140.9135.3143.3245.0362.8345.4288.3Mortgage Activity - UKThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA£ BillionsThursday, 23 May 13
  58. 58. Nationwide House Price IndexThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  59. 59. Mortgage Activity - UKThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  60. 60. Mortgage Activity - UKThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  61. 61. Mortgage Activity - UKThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  62. 62. The UK Economy in Black and White JKAExchange RatesThursday, 23 May 13
  63. 63. Exchange RatesThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA1.01.11.21.31.41.51.6201320122011201020092008200720062005Sterling EuroThursday, 23 May 13
  64. 64. Exchange RatesThe UK Economy in Black and White JKASterling Dollar1.251.501.752.002.25201320122011201020092008200720062005Thursday, 23 May 13
  65. 65. Exchange RatesSterling is expected to hold against the dollarand appreciate slightly against the Euro asinterest rate spreads narrow and Eurolandworries persistFurther dollar weakness against the Renminbi isexpected.The UK Economy in Black and White JKA2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015£ : $ 2.00 1.85 1.57 1.55 1.61 1.58 1.56 1.56 1.56£ : € 1.46 1.26 1.12 1.17 1.15 1.23 1.26 1.28 1.28£: ¥ 235.6 191.3 146.9 136.1 128.6 126.5 112.3 107.6 103.1$: € 1.37 1.47 1.40 1.32 1.39 1.28 1.25 1.22 1.22¥:$ 117.8 103.4 93.6 87.8 79.9 79.8 72.0 69.0 66.1Yuan:$ 7.61 6.95 6.83 6.77 6.47 6.47 6.25 6.00 5.75¥:Yuan 15.48 14.88 13.70 12.96 12.35 11.59 11.52 11.50 11.49Thursday, 23 May 13
  66. 66. Dow JonesThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA600070008000900010000110001200013000140001500016000201320122011201020092008200720062005Dow JonesThursday, 23 May 13
  67. 67. FTSEThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA300035004000450050005500600065007000201320122011201020092008200720062005FTSEThursday, 23 May 13
  68. 68. Stock Market Equity Risk PremiumThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  69. 69. 50.060.070.080.090.0100.02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201592.387.983.778.668.057.058.467.163.160.157.2Stock Market Dividend Payments UKThe UK Economy in Black and White JKA£ billionse e f f fThursday, 23 May 13
  70. 70. Gold Price US $ per ozThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  71. 71. Policy PrioritiesThe UK Economy in Black and White JKAExportsBanking RegionsInfrastructureThursday, 23 May 13
  72. 72. IMFVisit May 2013The UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  73. 73. The UK Economy in Black and White JKAThursday, 23 May 13
  74. 74. May 2013Economics ReviewThursday, 23 May 13
  75. 75. The UK Economy 2005 - 2015 ForecastsJohn Ashcroft is Chief Executive ofpro.manchester, a director of MarketingManchester and a visiting professor at MMUBusiness School specialising in MacroEconomics and Corporate Strategy.Educated at the London School of Economicsand London Business School with a PhD inmacro economics from MMU.The material is based upon information which weconsider to be reliable but we do not representthat it is accurate or complete and it should not berelied upon as such. We accept no liability forerrors, or omissions of opinion or fact.In particular, no reliance should be placed on thecomments or trends in financial markets. Thepublication of this document should not beconstrued as the giving of investment advice.www.johnashcroft.co.ukGDPInflation CPIEarnings - whole economyUnemployment - claimant countUnemployment - LFS basisBase RatesTenYear GiltsOil Price - Brent crudePSNBR £PSNBR %ManufacturingRetail SalesOn line salesTrade in GoodsTrade in ServicesOverall BalanceHouse PricesExchange RatesExogenous Assumptions : Growth in China - USA recovery - no Euro collapseThursday, 23 May 13

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