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February 2016
TURKISH ECONOMY
333
CONTENTS
Turkish Economy in the World.................................................................4
Demographic Profile.................................................................................7
Growth....................................................................................................11
Employment............................................................................................29
Inflation...................................................................................................41
Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments...............................................53
Public Finance........................................................................................73
Debt Management..................................................................................82
Financial Sector....................................................................................116
Market Indicators..................................................................................128
Investment Environment.......................................................................139
Relationship with the IMF and EU........................................................145
Social Security......................................................................................148
Labor Market.........................................................................................156
R&D......................................................................................................167
Energy Sector.......................................................................................182
444
TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE
WORLD
555
World’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dollar, 2014)
0 5 10 15 20 25
China
USA
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
Brazil
Indonesia
France
United Kingdom
Mexico
Italy
Korea
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Spain
Turkey
Iran
Australia
Taiwan
Nigeria
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2015
666
Europe’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2014)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2015
777
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
888
25.7
15.8
15.6
15.1
15.1
15.0
14.5
14.7
14.9
13.7
63.5
65.2
61.5
63.9
65.7
63.9
64.3
61.4
61.5
59.9
10.8
19.0
22.9
21.0
19.2
21.1
21.3
23.9
23.7
26.4
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Turkey
Russia
Europe
Romania
Slovak Rep.
Poland
Ukraine
Hungary
Czech Rep.
Bulgaria
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
Favourable Demographics
Demographic Profile* (as of 2013)
(*) Estimates
Source: UN
99
17.1
16.1
16.4
15.4
14.8
14.8
16.0
14.0
13.9
13.8
54.4
53.2
56.2
51.0
52.5
48.7
50.8
50.6
49.4
49.4
28.5
30.8
27.3
33.6
32.7
36.5
33.2
35.4
36.7
36.7
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Russia
Ukraine
Turkey
Europe
Hungary
Bulgaria
Czech Rep.
Slovak Rep.
Poland
Romania
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
Source: UN
Favourable Demographics
Demographic Profile (as of 2050)
101010
Turkey: Population Prospects (Million People)
77.7 78.6 79.4 80.2
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
111111
GROWTH
121212
GDP Growth Rates (%, YoY)
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2001Q1
Q3
2002Q1
Q3
2003Q1
Q3
2004Q1
Q3
2005Q1
Q3
2006Q1
Q3
2007Q1
Q3
2008Q1
Q3
2009Q1
Q3
2010Q1
Q3
2011Q1
Q3
2012Q1
Q3
2013Q1
Q3
2014Q1
Q3
2015Q1
Q3
Source: TURKSTAT
131313
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
GDP Growth Rate (Annual Average, %)
141414
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
(*) Realization Estimation.
GDP Growth Rate Projections (%)
4.0
4.5
5.0 5.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2015* 2016 2017 2018
151515
Volatility of Growth
(Coefficient of Variation of the Growth Rates)
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
161616
3,492
4,565
5,775
7,036
7,597
9,247
10,444
8,561
10,003
10,428 10,459
10,822
10,390
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Per Capita GDP (USD)
Source: TURKSTAT
171717
Per Capita GDP, 2014
(Purchasing Power Parity, AB-27=100)
Source: EUROSTAT
Trend line: moving average
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Luxembourg
Norway
Switzerland
UnitedStates
Ireland
Netherlands
Austria
Denmark
Sweden
Germany
Iceland
Belgium
Finland
UnitedKingdom
France
Japan
Italy
Spain
Cyprus
CzechRepublic
Slovenia
Portugal
Slovakia
Lithuania
Estonia
Greece
Poland
Hungary
Latvia
Croatia
Romania
Turkey
Bulgaria
Karadağ
Montenegro
Serbia
Albania
BosniaandHerzegovina
181818
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
(*) Estimation.
PPP Adjusted Per Capita GDP Projections (USD)
191919
Source: OECD
Comparison of Europe and Turkey:
Real GDP Growth (2001=100)
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
190.0
200.0
210.0
2000Q1
Q3
2001Q1
Q3
2002Q1
Q3
2003Q1
Q3
2004Q1
Q3
2005Q1
Q3
2006Q1
Q3
2007Q1
Q3
2008Q1
Q3
2009Q1
Q3
2010Q1
Q3
2011Q1
Q3
2012Q1
Q3
2013Q1
Q3
2014Q1
Q3
2015Q1
Q3
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain Portugal Italy Euro Area
202020
Contribution to GDP Growth (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
212121
Components of Demand in Europe and Turkey: (2001=100)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
2001Q1
Q3
2002Q1
Q3
2003Q1
Q3
2004Q1
Q3
2005Q1
Q3
2006Q1
Q3
2007Q1
Q3
2008Q1
Q3
2009Q1
Q3
2010Q1
Q3
2011Q1
Q3
2012Q1
Q3
2013Q1
Q3
2014Q1
Q3
2015Q1
Q3
EXPORT Turkey Hungary
Poland Spain Portugal
Ita ly Euro Area
Source: OECD
Private Consumption Export
İthalat
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Import
222222
Contribution of Private Sector Fixed Investment to GDP
Growth (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
232323
Productivity Index of Total Industry
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
05Q1
05Q3
06Q1
06Q3
07Q1
07Q3
08Q1
08Q3
09Q1
09Q3
10Q1
10Q3
11Q1
11Q3
12Q1
12Q3
13Q1
13Q3
14Q1
14Q3
15Q1
15Q3
Productivity per hour
Linear Trend (Productivity per hour)
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
24242424
Productivity and Real Wages in Total Industrial Sector
(Per Hour Worked)
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150 05Q1
05Q3
06Q1
06Q3
07Q1
07Q3
08Q1
08Q3
09Q1
09Q3
10Q1
10Q3
11Q1
11Q3
12Q1
12Q3
13Q1
13Q3
14Q1
14Q3
15Q1
15Q3
Productivity Index
Real Wage IndexReal Unit Wage Index
25252525
Industrial Production Index (Seasonally Adjusted)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130 2005Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2006Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2007Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2008Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2010Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2011Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2012-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015-Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25
Source: TURKSTAT
26262626
Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry
(Seasonally Adjusted, %)
Source: CBRT
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
2014-1
4
7
10
2015-1
4
7
10
2016-1
26
27272727
Real Sector Confidence Index
Source: CBRT 27
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
2014-1
4
7
10
2015-1
4
7
10
2016-1
28282828
Consumer Confidence Index
Source: TURKSTAT
50
60
70
80
90 2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
2014-1
4
7
10
2015-1
4
7
10
2016-1
28
292929
EMPLOYMENT
3030
Unemployment Rate * (%)
9.5
9.0 9.2
10.0
13.1
11.1
9.1
8.4
9.0
9.9
10.7
10.5
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014Nov. 2015Nov.
Source: TURKSTAT
* The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the
European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
31
Youth Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, %)
Source: OECD
323232
Employment * (Seasonally Adjusted, Million People)
Source: TURKSTAT
32
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27 2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
*As of November 2015.
The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the
European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
30.0
3.1
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
Labor Force (Million People) Unemployed (Million People, right axis)
Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted)
33Source: TURKSTAT
*As of November 2015.
The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the
European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted)
51.5
46.2
10.4
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
38
41
44
47
50
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
Labour Force Participation Rate (%) Employment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%, right axis)
34Source: TURKSTAT
*As of November 2015.
The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the
European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5 2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
Agriculture Employment (sea. adj.) Agriculture Employment
Agriculture (million people)
Employment Developments by Sector *
35
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
Industry Employment (sea.adj.) Industry Employment
Industry (million people)
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
Construction Employment (sea.adj.) Construction Employment
Construction (million people)
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
2008-1
3
5
7
9
11
2009-1
3
5
7
9
11
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
Services Employment (sea.adj.) Services Employment
Services (million people)
Source: TURKSTAT
*As of November 2015.
The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the
European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
36
Sector Shares in Total Employment (%)
Sectoral Transition of Employment
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010-1
3
5
7
9
11
2011-1
3
5
7
9
11
2012-1
3
5
7
9
11
2013-1
3
5
7
9
11
2014-1
3
5
7
9
11
2015-1
3
5
7
9
11
Agriculture Industry Construction Services
Sector Contributions to Employment Growth(% points)
Source: TURKSTAT
37
Employment Status at Work (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
Informal Employment Rate (%)
38
Source: TURKSTAT
39
Labour Force Participation Rate (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
Labour Force Participation Rate by Education Level (2014, %)
40
Male Female
Higher
Education
Note: The balloon size reflects the labour force share of the relevant group.
Higher
Education
Source: TURKSTAT
414141
INFLATION
424242
Average Inflation in Periods (%)
62.7
71.6
10.5 9.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1983-94 1995-2001 2002-2015 2016-January
Source: TURKSTAT
434343
8.8
7.5
6.0
5.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015* 2016 2017 2018
Year End CPI Forecasts in 2016-2018 (%)
(*) Realization.
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018, January 2016.
444444
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec-05
Jun-06
Dec-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Food Energy CPI excluding unprocessed food and energy
Food, Energy and Core Inflation
(January 2006 – January 2016 , year-on-year percentage change)
Inflation: Recent Developments
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
454545
0
5
10
15
20
25
Dec-05
May-06
Oct-06
Mar-07
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-11
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
Services Transport Services Rent Restaurants and Hotels
Inflation: Recent Developments
Services Inflation and Selected Sub-items
(January 2006 – January 2016 , year-on-year change, percent)
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
464646
Inflation – Overall Trend*
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006-1
4
7
10
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
2014-1
4
7
10
2015-1
4
7
10
2016-1
Inflation Trend
(January 2006 – January 2016 , percentage change)
(*) As of January 2016. Monthly change of seasonally adjusted SCA-I index (3 month moving average) .
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
29.8
5.6 5.0
59.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Food
Energy
Tobacco
Others
474747
Average of 2004 – 2015 January 2016
Inflation – Main Determinants
Contribution to CPI Inflation
(Percentage Share)
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
30.38
14.51
7.47
47.83
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Food
Energy
Tobacco
Others
4848
Inflation and Expectations*: (Annual % Change)
7.96
7.29
9.58
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
2014-1
4
7
10
2015-1
7
2016-1
7
2017-1
7
2018-1
CPI
12 Months
24 Months
Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT
(*) CBRT’s Survey of Expectations as of February 2016.
CBRT’s Survey of Expectations has been released once a month since January, 2013.
2016 Target: 5.0 %
2017 Target: 5.0 %
494949
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
1
03
47101
04
4 7101
05
47101
06
4 7101
07
47101
08
4 7101
09
4 7101
10
4 7101
11
4 7101
12
47101
13
4 7101
14
47101
15
4 7101
16
47101
17
4 7101
18
12
months 24
months
Inflation Expectations (February 2016)
End year 8.48
12 months 7.96
24 months 7.29
Annual Inflation and Expectations (%)
Source: CBRT’s Survey of Expectations
Year End Target
505050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100 2004-1
4
7
10
2005-1
4
7
10
2006-1
4
7
10
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
2014-1
4
7
10
2015-1
4
7
10
2016-1
Energy Metal Wheat Rice
Energy
Metal
Wheat
Rice
Source: IMF
Price Index of Selected Commodities (2005=100)*
*As of January 2016.
515151
Inflation Developments in the World
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-05
Aug-05
Mar-06
Oct-06
May-07
Dec-07
Jul-08
Feb-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Jan-12
Aug-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Turkey
World
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
Source: IMF, TURKSTAT
5252
Turkey’s Rank According to Inflation Figures
The total number of countries is 188 as of 2014. The ranking is in descending order.
5
7
6
10
3
7
9
36
48
29
64
61
40
61
31
50
27
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: IMF
535353
FOREIGN TRADE and
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
5454
36.1
47.3
63.2
73.5
85.5
107.3
132.0
102.1
113.9
134.9
152.5151.8
157.6
143.9141.2
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Annual Exports (Billion USD)
Source: TURKSTAT
(*) Annualized as of January
555555
Annual Imports (Billion USD)
Source: TURKSTAT
51.6
69.3
97.5
116.8
139.6
170.1
202.0
140.9
185.5
240.8236.5
251.7
242.2
207.2203.9
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
(*) Annualized as of January
565656
Export and Import Growth
(Annualized Percentage Change over the Previous Year)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003-1
4
7
10
2004-1
4
7
10
2005-1
4
7
10
2006-1
4
7
10
2007-1
4
7
10
2008-1
4
7
10
2009-1
4
7
10
2010-1
4
7
10
2011-1
4
7
10
2012-1
4
7
10
2013-1
4
7
10
2014-1
4
7
10
2015-1
4
7
10
2016-1
Exports Imports
Source: TURKSTAT
575757
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
01Q1
01Q3
02Q1
02Q3
03Q1
03Q3
04Q1
04Q3
05Q1
05Q3
06Q1
06Q3
07Q1
07Q3
08Q1
08Q3
09Q1
09Q3
10Q1
10Q3
11Q1
11Q3
12Q1
12Q3
13Q1
13Q3
14Q1
14Q3
15Q1
15Q3
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
Exports in Europe and Turkey (2001=100)
Source: OECD
585858
3.8
2.9
7.2
9.7
3.5
4.5
0
4
8
12
World Euro Area Developing
Asia
Middle East
and North
Africa
Latin America Turkey
Export Performance
(Average Annual Growth Rate, 2005-2014)
Source: TURKSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2015
595959
155.5
175.8
201.4
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2016 2017 2018
Exports Targets (FOB, Billion USD)
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
606060
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumption goods
Imports (% of GDP)
Source: TURKSTAT
616161
Brent Oil Price (USD/bbl)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 Jun-02
Oct-02
Feb-03
Jun-03
Oct-03
Feb-04
Jun-04
Oct-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Source: Reuters
626262
Impact of Energy Prices to Imports (Billion USD)
38.5 41.7 44.5 43.8 46.2 50.2
0.0
12.5
15.6
12.1 8.7
-12.3
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Reel Energy Imports with 2010 Prices Price Effect Total Enegy Imports
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
636363
Machinery Imports (Billion USD)
29.4
42.6
47.9
46.1
43.2 43.043.9
35.9
12.2
15.7
21.9
26.1
29.9
35.9 36.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996-
2002
Average
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Source: TURKSTAT
(*) Annualized as of January
646464
Trend line: Moving Average
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Ireland
Norway
CzechRepublic
Russia
Netherlands
Germany
Switzerland
SlovakRepublic
Hungary
Slovenia
Belgium
Denmark
Italy
Sweden
Poland
Finland
Austria
Iceland
Spain
Japan
France
Romania
UnitedStates
Lithuania
UnitedKingdom
Portugal
Estonia
Latvia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Luxembourg
Greece
Morocco
Cyprus
Malta
Foreign Trade (% of GDP, 2014)
Source: WTO, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2015
656565
-2.5
-3.6
-4.5
-6.0 -5.8 -5.4
-1.9
-6.2
-9.7
-6.2
-7.9
-5.8
1.0
-0.3 -0.6
-1.2 -1.4
0.1
2.2
-1.6
-3.6
0.5
-1.9
0.3
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CA Balance/GDP CA Balance/GDP (Excluding Energy)
Current Account Balance / GDP (%)
Souce: CBRT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
666666
Trend line: Moving Average
-10
-5
0
5
10
15 Netherlands
Norway
Germany
Switzerland
Slovenia
Denmark
Sweden
Luxembourg
Hungary
Ireland
Iceland
Malta
Russia
Italy
Belgium
Greece
Spain
Austria
CzechRepublic
Portugal
Japan
Lithuania
Estonia
SlovakRepublic
Bulgaria
Romania
France
Poland
Finland
UnitedStates
Latvia
Cyprus
Morocco
Turkey
UnitedKingdom
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2015
Current Account Balance (% of GDP, 2014)
676767
Financing of Current Account Deficit (Billion USD)
Source: CBRT
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Current Account Balance -14.2 -21.0 -31.2 -36.9 -39.4 -11.4 -44.6 -74.4 -48.0 -63.6 -43.6 -32.2
Capital Inflows (Excluding
Reserves)
20.1 37.7 48.5 48.8 49.7 -3.5 49.1 51.4 68.7 67.6 41.8 25.7
Foreign Direct Investment 2.8 10.0 20.2 22.0 19.9 8.6 9.1 16.2 13.3 12.4 12.5 16.6
Non-Bank Private Sector’s Net
Credits
7.7 12.6 17.1 29.3 26.4 -13.0 -2.8 8.3 7.2 4.1 6.9 13.7
Other (Net) 9.7 15.1 11.2 -2.5 3.5 0.9 42.8 26.9 48.1 51.1 22.4 -4.5
Net Errors and Ommissions 0.8 1.5 -0.9 -0.3 2.0 2.3 -0.5 8.3 -0.9 1.4 1.6 9.7
Bank’s Currency and Deposits 6.0 0.3 10.3 3.5 13.3 -12.7 -8.8 -12.9 -1.0 -4.5 0.3 15.0
Change in Reserves 0.8 17.8 6.1 8.0 -1.1 0.1 12.8 -1.8 20.8 9.9 -0.5 -11.8
686868
1.1 1.7
2.8
10.0
20.2
22.0
19.9
8.6 9.1
16.2
13.3
12.4 12.5
16.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
1993-2002
Average
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (Billion USD)
Source: CBRT
68
696969
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Short-Term Capital
Long-Term Capital
Direct Investments (Net)
Portfolio Investments
Capital Inflows (Billion USD)
69
Source: CBRT
707070
Central Bank’s Gross FX Reserves (Billion USD)
(*) As of February 19, 2016.
Source: CBRT
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
J02
A
J
O
J03
A
J
O
J04
A
J
O
J05
A
J
O
J06
A
J
O
J07
A
J
O
J08
A
J
O
J09
A
J
O
J10
A
J
O
J11
A
J
O
J12
A
J
O
J-13
N
T
O
J-14
A
J
O
J-15
A
J
O
J-16
$92.9 billion*
717171
-31.7
-28.6 -29.3 -29.9
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
Current Account Balance Targets (Billion USD)
727272
Current Account Balance Targets (% of GDP)
-4.4
-3.9
-3.7
-3.5
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
737373
PUBLIC FINANCE
747474
Central Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
(*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets
Source: Ministry of Finance, 2016-2018 MTP-Revised
11.9
11.5
8.8
5.2
1.1
0.6
1.6 1.8
5.5
3.6
1.4
2.1
1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3
1.0 0.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*2016*2017*2018*
757575
General Government Budget Deficit Excl. Privatization
(% of GDP)
(*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets
Source: Ministry of Development, 2016-2018 MTP-Revised
12.5
10.9
8.0
4.4
0.7
0.2
1.6
2.5
5.9
3.4
0.7
1.5 1.6 1.3
0.6
1.3
0.9
0.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
767676
Maastricht Criterion: 3.0 %
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
Source: Eurostat
777777
General Government Deficit (% of GDP, 2013)
Source: Eurostat
-0.2
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Ireland
Greece
UK
Portugal
Spain
Latvia
Poland
Slovakia
Lithuania
France
Romania
Slovenia
S.Cyprus
Netherlands
CzechRep.
Italy
Austria
Germany
Hungary
Croatia
Belgium
Malta
Bulgaria
Turkey
Denmark
Finland
Luxembourg
Estonia
Sweden
Maastricht criterion: 3 %
7878
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)
(*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets
Source: Ministry of Development, 2016-2018 MTP-Revised
7.0
12.1
10.0
7.3
3.6
-0.1
-1.9
0.1
1.6
5.1
2.4
0.1
1.0
0.5 0.6
0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990-
2000
Ort.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018*
797979
2003-2014 Average: 2.3
Public Sector Primary Surplus (Program Definition)
(% of GDP)
(*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets
Source: For pre-2012 Undersecretariat of Treasury, for 2012 and onwards Ministry of Development
0.3
4.7
5.5
4.8
4.5
3.1
1.6
-1.0
0.7 1.8
0.8 1.0
0.6 0.8 0.6
1.1 1.3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
808080
Privatization Implementations (Billion USD)
8.2
56.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1985-2003 2003 - 2014
Source: Privatization Authority
818181
Medium Term Program (% GDP)
Source: Ministry of Development, Revised Medium Term Program 2016-2018, January 2016
2015 2016 2017 2018
Central Government Budget Balance -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8
Central Government Revenues 24.6 24.5 23.9 23.3
Central Government Expeditures 25.8 25.9 24.9 24.2
Central Government Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0
Central Government Revenues (IMF Definition) 23.5 23.4 23.0 22.9
Central Government Primary Expenditures (IMF
Definition)
23.1 23.3 22.5 21.9
Rest Of Public Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3
Total Public Sector Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.3
828282
DEBT MANAGEMENT
838383
59.6
52.7
40.0
46.0
42.3
39.1
36.2 36.1
33.5 33.8 33.7 34.6
67.7
74.0
39.9
46.5
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
General Government Gross Debt Stock
(EU Defined, % of GDP)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
848484
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Japan
Greece
Italy
Portugal
Cyprus
Ireland
Belgium
USA
Spain
France
UnitedKingdom
Canada
Austria
Slovenia
Hungary
Germany
Malta
Netherlands
Finland
Slovakia
Poland
Denmark
Sweden
CzechRepublic
Lithuania
Latvia
Romania
Turkey
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Estonia
General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP, 2014)
Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
Source: Eurostat (Updated: Feb 08, 2016), Undersecretariat of Treasury (As of December 31, 2015)
For USA, Japan, Canada: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2015)
858585
EU Defined Debt Stock (% of GDP)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Euro area (17 countries) 78.6 84.0 86.2 89.6 91.4 92.4
European Union (27 coun 73.1 78.5 81.1 83.8 85.5 86.8
Greece 126.7 146.2 172.0 159.4 177.0 178.6
Italy 112.5 115.3 116.4 123.2 128.8 132.3
Portugal 83.6 96.2 111.4 126.2 129.0 130.2
Belgium 99.5 99.6 102.2 104.1 105.1 106.7
Spain 52.7 60.1 69.5 85.4 93.7 99.3
France 79.0 81.7 85.2 89.6 92.3 95.6
United Kingdom 65.7 76.6 81.8 85.3 86.2 88.2
Austria 79.7 82.4 82.2 81.6 80.8 84.2
Hungary 78.0 80.6 80.8 78.3 76.8 76.2
Germany 72.5 81.0 78.4 79.7 77.4 74.9
Netherlands 56.5 59.0 61.7 66.4 67.9 68.2
Türkiye 46.0 42.3 39.1 36.2 36.1 33.5
Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 08-02-2016 ); Undersecretariat of Treasury, (As of December 31, 2015)
868686
EU – Defined Debt Stock Targets
(% of GDP)
32.6
31.7
30.5
29.5
28
30
32
34
36
2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018, January 2016
878787
Public Net Debt Stock (% of GDP)
26.2
31.3 30 31.3
27.6 26.2
29.9 28.1
21.6 20.3 17.6 14.7 13.4 12.5 11.4
35.4 23.9
19.1
10.4
6.5
3.3 2.9
2.7
0.9
0.7
-3.3 -5 -4 -4.2 -4.1 -3.8
25.3 7.6
8.5
9.2
10.7
12.6
17
28.9
32.5
28.229.5
34.0
41.7
49.1
55.2
61.5
22.4
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
TL FX Denominated/Indexed
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
888888
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3
I- Public Gross Debt Stock 497.1 546.5 562.9 623.4 650.2 673.0 690.7 734.0
• Central Government 473.6 518.4 532.2 585.8 612.1 633.6 651.8 690.2
• Rest of the Public Sector 23.6 28.2 30.7 37.5 38.1 39.4 38.9 43.8
II- Assets and Public Sector Deposit 179.3 256.4 322.3 425.6 463.1 508.5 535.5 590.6
• Central Bank Net Assets 86.2 143.2 189.5 271.1 304.4 344.0 352.5 406.1
• Public Sector Deposits 47.2 59.8 71.6 84.2 77.4 80.2 95.8 94.5
• Unemployment Insurance Fund 45.9 53.5 61.2 70.4 81.4 84.4 87.2 90.0
III- Public Net Debt Stock 317.8 290.1 240.6 197.7 187.1 164.4 155.3 143.4
898989
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
909090
Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%)
14.8
12.9
10.1
7.0
6.1
5.8
5.3 5.6
4.4
3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Source: Ministry of Finance
(*) Provisional
919191
Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues (%)
85.7
70.9
56.3
38.2
33.4 31.9 30.1 30.9
22.9
16.6 17.4 15.3 14.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Source: Ministry of Finance
(*) Provisional
929292
Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
939393
Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
949494
Sensitivity of General Government Debt to Shocks
2001 2014
Change in real exchange rate app/dep
by 5 percentage points
+ / - 2.2 points + / - 0.6 points
Change in TL interest rate by*
10 percent + / - 2.1 points + / - 0.2 points
25 percent + / - 5.2 points + / - 0.5 points
Change in GDP growth rate by
2 percentage points
+ / - 1.6 points + / - 0.7 points
Change in Primary Surplus/GDP ratio
by 1 percentage point
+ / - 1.0 points + / - 1.0 points
(*) Reflects percent change in TL interest rate in succeeding years.
Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by ESA standards)
measured by deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2014 stock realizations.
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
959595
Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
4.4
7.1
10.3
13.6 13.4
10.3
8.6
12.5
17.3
23.2
21.5 21.8
17.4
17.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-16
969696
Average Maturity of Borrowing
Domestic Borrowing (months) Eurobond Issuance (years)
(*) As of January, 2016
(**) As of February, 2016
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
9.4
11.6
14.8
31.7
35.3
44.144.7
60.8
74.3
68.5
71.870.4
34.0
28.027.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
8.2
9.5 10.1
12.2
9.9
8.0
9.0
17.6
16.5
22.4
14.214.8
9.1
20.620.2
13.7
19.7
10.0 10.0
6.6
5.0
15.3
15.7
7.0
8.6
20.0
10.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016**
Euro Dollar Yen
979797Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
Duration of TL-Denominated Domestic Debt Stock* (Months)
6.6
8.0
8.2
10.2
8.1
7.5
10.6
12.5
15.0
23.1
28.9
30.3
31.3
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Dec.04
Dec.05
Dec.06
Dec.07
Dec.08
Dec.09
Dec.10
Dec.11
Dec.12
Dec.13
Dec.14
Dec.15
Jan.16
(*) Macaulay duration
989898
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
Duration of External Bond Stock* (Years)
4.1
4.9
5.6
5.9
6.2
5.9
6.3 6.3
6.5
6.3
6.5 6.5 6.4
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
Dec.04
Dec.05
Dec.06
Dec.07
Dec.08
Dec.09
Dec.10
Dec.11
Dec.12
Dec.13
Dec.14
Dec.15
Jan.16
(*) Macaulay duration
999999
Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
12.8 12.4 11.8
19.6
22.3
25.7 24.4 25.0
30.9 31.1
33.7
47.0
55.0 55.1 56.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
602002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan-16
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
100100100
Cost of External Borrowing (%)
EURODOLLAR
4.5 4.2
5.0
6.0
5.45.3
6.3
9.9 9.9
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
(*) As of February, 2016
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
10.7
7.0 7.3
6.2
5.8
4.9
4.3
5.8
4.7
10.1
8.1
6.9
7.37.3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
101101101
TRY Denominated Zero Coupon Borrowing Rates
(Comp. Ann., %)
Source: Undersecretariat ofTreasury
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
J
02
M S J
03
M S J
04
M S J
05
M S J
06
M S J
07
M S J
08
M S J
09
M S J
10
M S J
11
M S J
12
M S J
13
M S J
14
M S J
15
M S J
Monthly Average Yearly Cumulative
102102102
Real Interest Rates (Comp. Ann., %)
Note: - The real interest rates are calculated by using 12 months ahead CPI rates. Calculations are based on zero coupon Treasury auction results and
Survey of Expectations of CBRT.
- Before 2013, the calculations are only based on zero coupon bonds however, as of 2013 they’re based on zero coupon bonds and 2-year fixed coupon
bonds together.
Source: CBRT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
103103103
0.4 0.0
-0.6
2.6
8.0
5.0
-2.4
-3.6
-3.1
-2.6
1.0
-0.5
-1.4
-1.8
-1.3
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
104104104
Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
16.2
13.8
10.2
7.2
1.9
0.5
0.0
4.5
0.6
3.2
16.2
11.2
5.5
5.1
3.6
0
4
8
12
16
20
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)
Source: Treasury
11,052
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015Q3
105
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock
Source: Treasury
Million USD 2015 Q3
PUBLIC 6,530
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 300
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 838
PUBLIC BANKS 4,503
SOEs 888
PRIVATE 4,523
BANKS 4,523
GENERAL TOTAL 11,052
106
107
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments (%)
* Annualized as of January 2016
Source: Treasury
2,92,93,4
51,9
27,3
18,1 16,7
19,7
24,7
16,4
22,1
8,2
3,9
6,4
5,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
January*
0
100
200
300
400
500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
January2016
Local Administrations SOEs Other
Undertakings from Treasury Guarantees (Million USD)
108
Source: Treasury
109109109
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (Billion TL)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
2.4
6.3 5.9
8.8
12.9
8.0 7.1 7.3
8.2 9.0 8.3 8.6 7.9
5.0
0.4
3.9 4.0
4.4
7.5
13.4
12.4
10.0
13.3 15.3
13.6
17.4
19.1
17.0 15.9
13.9
14.9
16.3
13.8 13.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Overdue projected
6.8
13.8
19.3
21.2
22.9
21.3
22.4
20.9
25.6
28.1
25.3
21.8
24.5
19.9
16.7
17.7 17.8
110
By Source
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (January 2016)
By Borrowers
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
111111111
Collections (Million TL)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
1,514
417
35
1,561
1,219 1,937
104
699
2,188
1,970
1,503
5,249
2,053
3,198
3,084
1,794
2,641
1,872
2,606 2,446 2,492
1,118
910
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Non-Cash Cash
112112112
Gross External Debt Stock (Billion USD)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
Billion USD 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3
TOTAL 208.1 250.0 281.0 268.9 292.0 303.9 339.0 389.1 402.5 392.8 404.9 406.0
SHORT TERM 42.9 43.1 52.5 49.0 77.2 81.6 100.2 130.4 132.8 129.5 127.1 120.8
LONG TERM 165.3 206.9 228.4 220.0 214.8 222.3 238.8 258.6 269.7 263.3 277.8 285.2
PUBLIC SECTOR 71.6 73.5 78.3 83.5 89.1 94.3 104.0 115.9 117.7 113.4 115.7 114.8
SHORT TERM 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.6 4.3 7.0 11.0 17.6 17.9 18.2 16.9 15.4
LONG TERM 69.8 71.4 75.1 79.9 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 95.2 98.8 99.4
CBRT 15.7 15.8 14.1 13.2 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.6
SHORT TERM 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
LONG TERM 13.1 13.5 12.2 11.4 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.3
PRIVATE SECTOR 120.8 160.7 188.6 172.3 191.4 200.3 227.9 267.9 282.3 277.3 287.2 289.6
SHORT TERM 38.5 38.7 47.4 43.6 71.4 73.3 88.1 112.0 114.6 111.0 109.9 105.3
LONG TERM 82.3 122.0 141.2 128.6 119.9 127.0 139.8 155.9 167.7 166.3 177.3 184.4
113113113
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
49.5
52.4
54.7
47.3
50.4
43.1
39.339.9
43.6
37.938.5
39.5
35.5
41.3
47.3
56.2
30
40
50
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
Gross External Debt Stock / GDP (%)
114114114
Turkey’s Net External Debt (% of GDP)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
29.5
31.7 32.4
30.5
27.8
23.8
20.720.620.6
26.4
31.5
38.4
39.9
20.5
23.7 23.6 24.1
10
20
30
40
50
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
115115115
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT
External Debt Ratios (%)
% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK /
GDP
39.5 38.5 37.9 43.6 39.9 39.3 43.1 47.3 50.4 49.5 52.4 54.7
PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT
STOCK / GDP
23.0 24.8 25.4 27.9 26.2 25.9 29.0 32.5 35.3 34.9 37.2 39.0
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) 243.3 233.1 212.8 263.3 256.4 225.3 222.4 256.3 255.4 254.2 268.1 277.2
PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT
STOCK / EXPORT (FOB)
141.3 149.8 142.8 168.7 168.0 148.5 149.5 176.5 179.1 179.4 190.2 197.8
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK
29.3 29.3 25.3 26.3 27.6 25.8 29.5 28.5 26.6 25.8 24.9 25.0
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
SHORT TERM GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK
142.1 169.9 135.2 144.3 104.5 96.2 99.7 85.1 80.5 78.2 79.3 84.0
116116116
FINANCIAL SECTOR
117117117
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
Source: BRSA
118118118
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2006-02
2006-09
2007-04
2007-11
2008-06
2009-01
2009-08
2010-03
2010-10
2011-05
2011-12
2012-07
2013-2
2013-09
2014-04
2014-11
2015-06
2016-01
Target rate 12 percent
Legal limit 8 percent
Source: BRSA
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
Operational
risk included
119119119
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio in Selected
Emerging Markets (%, 2015Q3*)
Source: IMF-FSI, BRSA
* Quarter-end figures or latest available.
20.2
18.1
17.4 17.2
16.7 16.5
15.5 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.2
14.2
13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9
6.00
10.00
14.00
18.00
22.00
Indonesia
Romania
Colombia
Hungary
CzechRep.
Thailand
Brazil
Malaysia
Mexico
Poland
Turkey
Korea
Chile
China
Russia
India
120120120
Banking Sector: Free Capital*/ Equity (%)
(*) Free Capital = Total Equity – (Fixed Assets + Affiliates, Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures)
Source: BRSA
36.3
51.0
56.0
65.7
72.6
75.3 77.0
79.6 81.4 81.6 82.0 81.6 81.1
77.6 77.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-1
121121121
Banking Sector: Return on Equity (%)
Source: BRSA
11.3
18.2
15.8
12.1
21.0
24.8
18.6
22.8
20.0
15.5 15.7
14.2
12.3
11.3
0.9 0.9
0
10
20
30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015-
1
2016-
1
122122122
Banking Sector: Loans to Assets (%)
Source: BRSA
23.0
26.5
32.4
37.8
43.8
49.1 50.2
47.1
52.2
56.1
58.0
60.5
62.2 63.0 63.1
15
25
35
45
55
65
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-01
123123123
Banking Sector: FX Position (Million USD)
(*) As of February 19, 2016.
Source: BRSA
-549
187
-71 -63
141
-217
16
408
41
315
1,590
-363
-2,870
436 380
-3300
-2600
-1900
-1200
-500
200
900
1600
2300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
124124124
Banking Sector: Asset Quality (NPL Ratio, %)
Source: BRSA
17.5
11.5
6.0
4.7
3.7 3.5 3.7
5.3
3.7
2.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2
6.2
1.5
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
0
4
8
12
16
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-1
Gross Net
125125125
Firms Total Debt / Shareholder’s Equity and Interest Coverage*
(Earnings Before Interest and Tax / Interest Expenses) Ratios (%)
(*) Provisional Statistics
Sorce: CBRT Company Accounts
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Total Debt / Shareholder's Equity Interest Coverage Ratio
126126126
Household Liabilities (% of GDP)
10
12 14
16
18 19 21
24 23 23
62 63 64
67 67 66 65 64
68 68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Turkey Euro Area
* 2015-Q3 figures.
Source: CBRT, ECB
127127127
Total Housing Loans (% of GDP)
Source: FED, ECB, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK National Statistics, CBRT, TURKSTAT, BRSA, HDAT
(*) Total housing loans for 2010 comprises of housing credits extended by banks and consumer finance companies as well as
Household liabilities to HDAT due to HDAT’s housing sales with long term maturity.
83.6
71.8
40.7
6.2
0.2
60.3
52.1
29.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
UK US Euro Zone Turkey*
2001 2010
128128128
MARKET INDICATORS
129129129
Foreign Exchange Rates (TL/USD)
Source: CBRT
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1 Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
130130130
Interest Rates (%)
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Domestic Debt Securities Secondary Market Rates
131131131
BIST 100 Index
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Source: Borsa Istanbul
132132132
Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)
Source: JP Morgan
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
D-00
J-01
F-02
A-02
M-03
O-03
A-04
N-04
J-05
D-05
J-06
F-07
A-07
M-08
O-08
M-09
N-09
J-10
D-10
J-11
F-12
A-12
M-13
O-13
M-14
N-14
J-15
J-16
(EMBI+ Turkey) - (EMBI+)
EMBI+
EMBI+ Turkey
133133133
Secondary Market and CBRT Policy Rate
Source: CBRT, Treasury
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
CompoundedInterestRates(%)
Secondary Market Rates CBRT Policy Rates
134134134
Credit Rating
Standard & Poor’s Credit Rating
Source: Bloomberg
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
N
S
P
BB-
N
S
P
B
N
S
P
B-
N
S
P
BB
N
S
P
BB+
N
S
P
B+
135135135
Rating Map (as of February 29, 2016)
A2 Botswana, Poland, Slovakia A Trianidad & Tobago, Slovenia A Malta, Ireland
A3 Malta, Mexico, Peru, Lithuania, Latvia A- Botswana, Lithuania, Latvia, Saudi Arabia A- Poland, Latvia, Lithuania
Baa1 Thailand, Mauritius, Ireland BBB+ Thailand, Malta, Poland BBB+ Thailand, Italy, Mexico, Slovenia,
Peru, Mexico, Spain, Iceland Peru, Spain, Iceland
Baa2 Kazakhstan, Bulgari, Italy, Iceland BBB Panama BBB Kazakhstan,
Panama, Spain, Uruguay, Colombia, Bahamas Colombia, Philippines, Uruguay Panama
South Africa, Philippines, Trianidad & Tobago, Iceland Colombia
Baa3 Turkey (negative), Namibia, India, Romania, BBB- Morocco, India, Kazakhstan BBB- Turkey (stable), Morocco, Namibia, India,
Indonesia, Slovenia, Bahrain Romania, South Africa Romania, Indonesia, Bulgaria
Italy, Bahamas Uruguay, Philippines, Russia, Bahrain, South Africa
Ba1 Morocco, Albania, Hungary, Costa Rica BB+ Turkey (negative), Indonesia BB+ Costa Rica, Brazil
Guatemala, Croatia, Portugal, Russia, Paraguay Bulgaria, Russia, Hungary Hungary, Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan Portugal, Azerbaijan
Ba2 El Salvador, Angola, Brazil BB Guatemala BB Guatemala, Croatia, Bolivia
Crotia, Bahrain, Brazil
Ba3 Bangladesh, Georgia, Montenegro, BB- Bangladesh, Georgia, Vietnam, El Salvador, BB- Sri Lanka, Georgia, Suriname,
Bolivia, Suriname, Tunisia Paraguay, Suriname, Bolivia, Montenegro, Jordan El Salvador, Tunisia, Vietnam, Bangladesh
Costa Rica
B1 Senegal, Sri Lanka, Jordan, B+ Senegal, Sri Lanka, Fiji B+ Angola
Dominican Republic, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Papua New Guinea
St Vincent/Grenadine, Vietnam Honduras, Albania
B2 Cambodia, Mongolia, Lebanon, Nicaragua B Bosnia Herzegovina, Cambodia, Jamaica B Lebanon, Ecuador, Egypt, Mongolia, Jamaica
Tunisia, Barbados, Ecuador, Mongolia, Angola
B3 Moldova, Barbados, Egypt, Pakistan B- Pakistan, Belarus, Lebanon, Belize B-
Bosnia Herzegovina, Honduras, Ecuador Egypt, Ukraine, Greece
Caa1 Argentina, Belarus CCC+ CCC+
Caa2 Belize, Cuba, Greece, Jamaica CCC Venezuela CCC Venezuela, Greece, Ukraine
Caa3 Venezuela, Greece, Ukraine CCC- CCC-
Ca CC CC
C C C
SD Argentina DDD
D/RD Argentina
Source: Bloomberg
Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch
136136136
EMBI+ Index: Comparison with Other Countries
Change (bp) (02.01.2008 – 29.02.2016)
Source: Bloomberg
2379
627
279
190
163
161
104
100
77
38
-88
-300 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2400 2700 3000 3300
Venezuela
Ukraine
Brazil
EMBI+
S. Africa
Colombia
Mexico
Russia
Turkey
Argentina
Phillipines
137137137
Equity Markets (Emerging and Mature Markets)
% Change (02.01.2008 – 29.02.2016)
Source: Bloomberg
51.5
36.9
27.6
18.2
15.3
12.4
3.4
-9.6
-17.9
-33.8
-49
-52.6
-66.9
68.9
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
S. Africa
Mexico
Turkey
USA (DJI)
Russia
Malaysia
India
S. Korea
Hungary
Poland
Brazil
China
Japan
Chech Rep.
138138138
Currency Markets (Against USD)
% Change (02.01.2008 – 29.02.2016)
Source: Bloomberg
-210.7
-153.3
-135.5
-125.8
-73.7
-67.1
-65.4
-62.9
-38.3
-34.9
-32.0
-26.9
-3.0
10.1
-240 -220 -200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20
Russia
Turkey
S. Africa
Brazil
India
Mexico
Hungary
Poland
Czech Rep.
Euro
S. Korea
Malaysia
Japan
China
139139139
INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
140140140
Starting a Business (Number of Procedures)
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2014
13
13
12
9
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
0 4 8 12 16 20
China
Brazil
India
Czech Rep.
Mexico
Croatia
Turkey
Europe&Central Asia
South Africa
OECD
Poland
Hungary
Bulgaria
Thailand
141141141
Starting a Business (Duration, Days)
33
30
27.5
27
19.5
19
18
15
12.8
11.1
8
6
6
5
0 10 20 30 40 50
China
Poland
Thailand
India
Czech Republic
South Africa
Bulgaria
Russia
Europe& Central Asia
OECD
Croatia
Mexico
Turkey
Hungary
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2014
142142142
Starting a Business (Cost, % of GDP Per Capita)
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2014
1
1.3
2
3.6
4.6
6.7
6.7
8.2
8.6
9.3
12.7
14.3
19.7
0 5 10 15 20 25
Bulgaria
Russia
China
OECD
Brazil
Thailand
Europe&Central Asia
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Croatia
Turkey
Poland
Mexico
143143143
Taxes on Income and Profit (% of GDP, 2012)
Source: OECD Factbook 2014
(*) 2011 Data
6.0
11.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mexico
SlovakRepublic
Turkey
Poland*
Hungary
Estonia
Slovenia
CzechRepublic
Korea
Chile
Greece
Portugal
Japan
Israel
Spain
Netherlands*
France
Germany
OECD*
UnitedStates
Ireland
UnitedKingdom
Austria
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Canada
Italy
Finland
Sweden
Australia*
Belgium
Iceland
NewZealand
Norway
Denmark
144144144
Tax Revenue Comparisons (% of GDP, 2011)
(*) Includes Mexico, Korea, Czech Rep., Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Rep. and Spain.
Source: OECD, Factbook 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Total Tax Revenue Income Taxes Taxes on Goods and
Services
Turkey OECD Comparative Group*
145145145
RELATIONS with the IMF and EU
146146146
Relations with the IMF
Arrangements Duration
Amount
Approved
(Million
SDR)
Amount
Drawn
(Million
SDR)
Repurchases
(Million SDR)
Projected
Payments
(Million
SDR)
17th Stand-By
Arrangement
(12.1999 - 02.2002) 15,038 11,739 11,739 0
18th Stand-by
Arrangement
(02.2002 - 02.2005) 12,821 11,914 11,914 0
19th Stand-by
Arrangement
(05.2005 - 05.2008) 6,662 6,662 6,662 0
TOTAL 34,522 30,315 30,315 0
Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
147147147
For 1 Chapter
1- Science and Research
For 12 Chapters
For 2 Chapters
1- Education and Culture,
2- Economic and Monetary Policy
For 8 Chapters
Remaining chapters
EU Accession Process
Negotiations were opened and
provisionally closed
Negotiations were opened
provisionally but closing
benchmarks
Submission of our Position Papers
Opening benchmarks
Awaiting for the screening reports
I. Screening process: 3 October 2005 - 13 October 2006
II. Accession Talks :
1- Enterprise and Industrial Policy,2- Statistics,
3- Financial Control, 4- Consumer and Health Protection,
5- Trans-European Networks, 6- Company Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks),
7-Intellectual Property Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks)
8- Free Movement of Capital 9- Information Society & Media
10-Taxation, 11- Environment, 12- Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy
148148148
SOCIAL SECURITY
149149149
Social Security Reform
Uniform norm and standards for workers. civil servants and the self
employed
Gradual increase in retirement age to 65
Decrease in accrual rate to 2 %.
The valorization of past earnings by CPI+30 % of GDP real growth
Indexation of pensions to CPI
Universal health insurance
A new health scheme for the poor as of 2012
Introduction of copayments for health care
Global budget in some health expenditures
Main Features
150150150
Decrease in Pension System Deficits
(2007-2075,% of GDP)
Source: World Bank, 2007
Before the Reform
After the Reform
151151
Net Replacement Rates, 2012
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2013
Low Earner Average Earner
152152
Retirement Age for Men (2010)
44.9
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70 Turkey
Greece
Italy
Hungary
Korea
Luxembourg
France
CzechRep.
SlovakRep.
Estonia
Slovenia
OECD
Japan
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Denmark
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Mexico
Netherlands
NewZealand
Poland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Iceland
Israel
Norway
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
153153
Retirement Age for Women (2010)
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
154154
Life Expectancy After Pensionable Age for Men (2010)
30.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 Poland
Estonia
Slovakia
Norway
Denmark
Israel
USA
Hungary
Iceland
Portugal
Belgium
Mexico
Chile
Netherlands
Slovenia
Finland
Germany
Ireland
Austria
UK
Czechrep.
Spain
Swedish
newZealand
Canada
OECDAvg.
Switzerland
Australia
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
France
Italy
Greece
Turkey
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
155155
Life Expectancy After Pensionable Age for Women (2010)
37.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 Mexico
Iceland
Norway
Denmark
USA
Portugal
Germany
Ireland
Netherlands
Belgium
NewZealand
Swedish
Finland
Canada
Spain
Estonia
Hungary
Australia
OECDAvg.
Poland
Israel
Swiss
Slovenia
Czechrep.
Slovakia
UK
Chile
Luxembourg
Austria
Korea
France
Japan
Italy
Greece
Turkey
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
156156156
LABOR MARKET
157157157
Labor Market Reform
Reduction of labor cost
5 points of social security premium is covered by state.
Benefiting of 5 points of social security premium incentive, simultaneously with other employment incentives is
enabled.
Employer contribution of newly employed young and female workers is covered by Unemployment Insurance
Fund.
The employers’ share of social security premium for disabled workers is covered from the budget.
The application area of short-term payment is extended to sectoral and regional crises together with general
economic crises.
Daily short time working allowance that was 40% of daily average gross income is increased to 60%.
Active labor market programs
The budget allocation for active labor market program is increased by four times and raised to 1.5 billion TL per
year. (In previous implementation it was 30% of state contribution now it is 30% of total premium income)
Elimination of non-financial burdens:
Obligation of ex-convicts employment is abolished.
Sports facility, kindergarden, health and security unit’s requirements regulated in the Labor Law are alleviated.
Increasing Flexibility of Labor Market
Part-time workers will be eligible for retirement benefits by indebting their remaining hours from regular working
hours.
Part-time workers are covered by Unemployment Insurance Fund as regular workers.
158158158Source: OECD Taxing Wages, 2013
Not: UR-07 is the level of tax wedge for Turkey in 2007
42.7
38.2
35.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 Belgium
France
Germany
Hungary
Austria
Italy
Sweden
TUR-07
Finland
CzechRepublic
Greece
EU-21
Spain
SlovakRepublic
Netherlands
Denmark
Turkey
Norway
Portugal
Luxembourg
OECD-Average
Poland
Iceland
UnitedKingdom
Japan
Canada
UnitedStates
Australia
Ireland
Switzerland
Korea
Mexico
NewZealand
Tax Wedge After Reform
(Single person at 100% of average earnings, no child, 2012)
159159159
(*) Single without children at the income level of average worker
Source: OECD Taxing Wages 2013
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
N.Zealand
Mexico
Korea
Sw itzerla
Ireland
Australia
USA
Canada
Japan
UK
Iceland
Poland
OECD
Luxembo
Portugal
Norw ay
Turkey
Netherlan
Denmark
Spain
Greece
Czech
Finland
Sw eden
Italy
Austria
Hungary
Germany
France
Belgium
Income Tax Employee's SSC Employer's SSC
Income Tax Plus Employee’s and Employer’s Social
Security Contributions* (% of labor costs, 2012)
160
Number of Insured Employees (Million Persons)
Source: Social Security Instutions, Montly Statistical Bulletin January 2015
161
Social Security Coverage (Million Persons)
(Employees and Dependents)
Source: Social Security Instutions, Monthly Statistical Bulletin January 2015
Unemployment Rate by Cities (2013)
Source: TURKSTAT, 08.10.2014
Van
162
163163163
Source: stats.oecd.org
Agriculture Industry Services
Turkey 25.5 26.5 48.1
Mexico 13.4 24.4 62.2
Poland 13.1 30.7 56.2
Korea 6.4 24.8 68.9
Hungary 4.9 30.9 64.2
Spain 4.2 21.9 73.9
Italy 3.7 28.8 67.5
Japan 3.5 24.8 71.7
Czech Rep. 3.0 38.5 58.5
Canada 2.1 19.8 78.1
UK 1.2 19.1 79.7
Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity, 2011 (%)
164164164
Restrictiveness of Protection Legislation on Temporary
Employment (Index Scale of 0-6 from Least to Most Restrictive)
4.88
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Canada
USA
UK
SlovakRep.
Ireland
Australia
Switzerland
CzechRep.
Hungary
Netherlands
Japan
N.Zeland
Denmark
Austria
Sweden
Korea
Germany
Spain
Poland
EU-19
Finland
Italy
Belgium
Portugal
Norvey
Greece
France
Mexico
Luxembourg
Turkey
1998 2008
OECD Avg. 1.77
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics Database, 2010
165165
Part-time Employment (%, 2011)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
CzechRep.
SlovakRep.
Hungary
Belgium
Poland
Slovenia
Estonia
Greece
Portugal
Turkey
USA
Finland
Spain
Korea
France
Israel
Sweden
Luxembourg
OECD
Italy
Iceland
Chile
Mexico
Austria
Denmark
Canada
Norway
Japan
NewZealand
Germany
UK
Australia
Part-time Employment as a Proportion of Total Employment Women's Share in Part-time Employment
Source: OECD, Labor Force Statistics Database
166166166
Severance Payments Burden (2010)
(As weeks of Payment for 20 Years Work)
87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
USA
Poland
Bulgaria
Romania
Russia
Ireland
UK
CzechRep.
Canada
Hungary
France
Greece
Brazil
Germany
Spain
Portugal
Turkey
Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2011
167167167
R&D
168168168
In 2002, 3 billion dollars.
In 2012, 12.7 billion dollars.
R&D expenditures increased by 320.6 % between 2002
and 2012
Turkey: R&D Expenditures (Current PPP, USD)
Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators
169169169
R&D Expenditure* (Million TL)
*2011 prices
170170170
R&D Expenditure per Capita (PPP, USD)
145
166
132
121
108
100
78
67
53
43464644
39
32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: TUBITAK
171171171
In 2002, 28,964 people.
In 2012, 105,122 people.
Number of R&D personnel increased by 262 %
between 2002-2012
Turkey: Number of FTE* R&D Personnel
(*) Full Time Equivalent
Source: TURKSTAT
172172172
Turkey: Number of FTE R&D Personnel
Source: TURKSTAT
27,003
27,698
28,964
38,308
39,960 49,252
54,444 63,377
67,244
73,521
81,792
92,801
105,122
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
173173173
In 2002, 23,995 people.
In 2012, 82,122 people.
Number of researchers increased by 242 % between
2002-2012
Turkey: Number of FTE Researchers
(*) Full Time Equivalent
Source: TURKSTAT
174174174
R&D Human Resources (1000 People)
Source: TUBİTAK
23 24
27 28 29
38
40
49
54
63
67
74
82
93
105
82
72
64
58
53
50
43
39
3433
24232319 20
5
25
45
65
85
105
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Full-time R&D Personnel Full-time Researcher
175175175
In 2002, 8,975 publications.
In 2012, 25,018 publications.
Number of scientific publications increased by 179 %
between 2002 and 2012
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publications
Source: TUBİTAK
176176176
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publication
8,975
10,648
13,310
14,275
15,222
18,120
19,572
21,876
23,077
23,851
25,018
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: TUBİTAK
177177177
Number of Scientific Publications per Million People
Source: TUBITAK
331
319313
301
274
257
219
208
197
159
136
100
150
200
250
300
350
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
178178178
In 2002, 85 international patent applications.
In 2012, 535 international patent applications.
Number of international patent applications increased by
529 % between 2002-2012.
Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications
Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report
179179179
Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications
Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report
116
174
269
389
480
535
392
539
85
112
359
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
180180180
Patent Applications and Registries
Source: TPI
73 93 68 95 122
318 338 456
642
847
1025
414 490
685
935
1,090
1,838
2,268
2,588
3,250
4,087
4,543
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(Numberofpatents)
Domestic Patent Registries Domestic Patent Appliciations
181181181
Model Applications and Registries
376
704 678
964
1,665
2,148
1,833
2,151
2,022
1,948
2,245
914
1,206
1,479
1,896
2,424
2,972 2,949
2,842
2,994
3,175
3,725
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
(NumberofModels)
Model Registrations Model ApplicationsSource: TPI
182182182
ENERGY SECTOR
183183183
Electricity Demand and Supply in Turkey (Billion kWh)
Source: TEİAŞ
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Supply Demand
250.4
255.5
184
Source: Eurostat
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sweeden
Denmark
BosniaandHerzegovina
Liechtenstein
Finland
Portugal
Slovenia
Greece
Crotia
Macedonia
Hungary
Austria
Germany
Ireland
Lithuania
Spain
Slovakia
Poland
EuroArea
EU28
France
EU27
Estonia
Latvia
Serbia
Luxembourg
UnitedKingdom
Bulgaria
Netherlands
Italy
Romania
CzechRepublic
Belgium
Turkey
Without Tax Other Taxes VAT
Industrial Natural Gas Prices
(Euro / GigaJoule, For consumers with 10.000 GJ-100.000GJ Annual Consuption,
2014 2nd Half)
185185185
Source: Eurostat
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sweeden
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Denmark
Liechtenstein
Netherlands
Greece
EuroArea
France
Ireland
Austria
EU27
EU28
Germany
Belgium
UnitedKingdom
Slovenia
CzechRepublic
Slovakia
Luxembourg
BosniaandHerzegovina
Poland
Lithuania
Estonia
Latvia
Bulgaria
Crotia
Serbia
Turkey
Hungary
Romania
Without Tax Other Taxes VAT
Household Natural Gas Prices
(Euro / GigaJoule, For consumers with 20 GJ – 200GJ annual consumption,
2014 2nd Half)
186186186
Source: Eurostat
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Denmark
SouthernCyprus
Italy
Germany
Malta
UnitedKingdom
Lithuania
EuroArea
EU27
EU28
Slovakia
Ireland
Spain
Portugal
Latvia
Greece
Belgium
Austria
Hungary
Estonia
Netherlands
Crotia
France
CzechRepublic
Slovenia
Romania
Poland
Finland
Turkey
Kosovo
Norway
Bulgaria
BosniaandHer.
Sweeden
Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia
Luxembourg
Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT
Industrial Electricity Prices Comparison EU & Turkey
(Eurocent / kWh, For consumers with 2.000 MWh – 20.000 Mwh annual
consumption, 2014 2nd Half)
187187
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Denmark
Germany
Ireland
Spain
SouthernCyprus
Italy
Portugal
EuroArea
EU27
EU28
Belgium
UnitedKingdom
Austria
Sweeden
Greece
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Slovenia
France
Liechtenstein
Finland
Slovakia
Poland
Estonia
Crotia
Lithuania
Turkey
Latvia
CzechRepublic
Romania
Malta
Albania
Iceland
Hungary
Montenegro
Bulgaria
Macedonia
BosniaandHerzegovina
Serbia
Kosovo
Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT
Household Electricity Prices Comparison EU & Turkey
(Eurocent / kWh, For consumers with 2.500 kWh- 5.000kWh annual consumption,
2014 2nd Half)
Source: Eurostat

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Turkish Economy February 2016 Report

  • 2. 333 CONTENTS Turkish Economy in the World.................................................................4 Demographic Profile.................................................................................7 Growth....................................................................................................11 Employment............................................................................................29 Inflation...................................................................................................41 Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments...............................................53 Public Finance........................................................................................73 Debt Management..................................................................................82 Financial Sector....................................................................................116 Market Indicators..................................................................................128 Investment Environment.......................................................................139 Relationship with the IMF and EU........................................................145 Social Security......................................................................................148 Labor Market.........................................................................................156 R&D......................................................................................................167 Energy Sector.......................................................................................182
  • 4. 555 World’s Biggest Economies (GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dollar, 2014) 0 5 10 15 20 25 China USA India Japan Germany Russia Brazil Indonesia France United Kingdom Mexico Italy Korea Saudi Arabia Canada Spain Turkey Iran Australia Taiwan Nigeria Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2015
  • 5. 666 Europe’s Biggest Economies (GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2014) Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2015
  • 7. 888 25.7 15.8 15.6 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.5 14.7 14.9 13.7 63.5 65.2 61.5 63.9 65.7 63.9 64.3 61.4 61.5 59.9 10.8 19.0 22.9 21.0 19.2 21.1 21.3 23.9 23.7 26.4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Turkey Russia Europe Romania Slovak Rep. Poland Ukraine Hungary Czech Rep. Bulgaria 0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age Favourable Demographics Demographic Profile* (as of 2013) (*) Estimates Source: UN
  • 8. 99 17.1 16.1 16.4 15.4 14.8 14.8 16.0 14.0 13.9 13.8 54.4 53.2 56.2 51.0 52.5 48.7 50.8 50.6 49.4 49.4 28.5 30.8 27.3 33.6 32.7 36.5 33.2 35.4 36.7 36.7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Russia Ukraine Turkey Europe Hungary Bulgaria Czech Rep. Slovak Rep. Poland Romania 0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age Source: UN Favourable Demographics Demographic Profile (as of 2050)
  • 9. 101010 Turkey: Population Prospects (Million People) 77.7 78.6 79.4 80.2 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
  • 11. 121212 GDP Growth Rates (%, YoY) -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 2001Q1 Q3 2002Q1 Q3 2003Q1 Q3 2004Q1 Q3 2005Q1 Q3 2006Q1 Q3 2007Q1 Q3 2008Q1 Q3 2009Q1 Q3 2010Q1 Q3 2011Q1 Q3 2012Q1 Q3 2013Q1 Q3 2014Q1 Q3 2015Q1 Q3 Source: TURKSTAT
  • 12. 131313 Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury GDP Growth Rate (Annual Average, %)
  • 13. 141414 Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018 (*) Realization Estimation. GDP Growth Rate Projections (%) 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2015* 2016 2017 2018
  • 14. 151515 Volatility of Growth (Coefficient of Variation of the Growth Rates) Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 16. 171717 Per Capita GDP, 2014 (Purchasing Power Parity, AB-27=100) Source: EUROSTAT Trend line: moving average 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Luxembourg Norway Switzerland UnitedStates Ireland Netherlands Austria Denmark Sweden Germany Iceland Belgium Finland UnitedKingdom France Japan Italy Spain Cyprus CzechRepublic Slovenia Portugal Slovakia Lithuania Estonia Greece Poland Hungary Latvia Croatia Romania Turkey Bulgaria Karadağ Montenegro Serbia Albania BosniaandHerzegovina
  • 17. 181818 Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018 (*) Estimation. PPP Adjusted Per Capita GDP Projections (USD)
  • 18. 191919 Source: OECD Comparison of Europe and Turkey: Real GDP Growth (2001=100) 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 190.0 200.0 210.0 2000Q1 Q3 2001Q1 Q3 2002Q1 Q3 2003Q1 Q3 2004Q1 Q3 2005Q1 Q3 2006Q1 Q3 2007Q1 Q3 2008Q1 Q3 2009Q1 Q3 2010Q1 Q3 2011Q1 Q3 2012Q1 Q3 2013Q1 Q3 2014Q1 Q3 2015Q1 Q3 Turkey Hungary Poland Spain Portugal Italy Euro Area
  • 19. 202020 Contribution to GDP Growth (%) Source: TURKSTAT
  • 20. 212121 Components of Demand in Europe and Turkey: (2001=100) 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 2001Q1 Q3 2002Q1 Q3 2003Q1 Q3 2004Q1 Q3 2005Q1 Q3 2006Q1 Q3 2007Q1 Q3 2008Q1 Q3 2009Q1 Q3 2010Q1 Q3 2011Q1 Q3 2012Q1 Q3 2013Q1 Q3 2014Q1 Q3 2015Q1 Q3 EXPORT Turkey Hungary Poland Spain Portugal Ita ly Euro Area Source: OECD Private Consumption Export İthalat Gross Fixed Capital Formation Import
  • 21. 222222 Contribution of Private Sector Fixed Investment to GDP Growth (%) Source: TURKSTAT
  • 22. 232323 Productivity Index of Total Industry 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 Productivity per hour Linear Trend (Productivity per hour) Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 23. 24242424 Productivity and Real Wages in Total Industrial Sector (Per Hour Worked) Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 07Q1 07Q3 08Q1 08Q3 09Q1 09Q3 10Q1 10Q3 11Q1 11Q3 12Q1 12Q3 13Q1 13Q3 14Q1 14Q3 15Q1 15Q3 Productivity Index Real Wage IndexReal Unit Wage Index
  • 24. 25252525 Industrial Production Index (Seasonally Adjusted) 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2005Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015-Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 25 Source: TURKSTAT
  • 25. 26262626 Capacity Utilization Rate of Manufacturing Industry (Seasonally Adjusted, %) Source: CBRT 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 2007-1 4 7 10 2008-1 4 7 10 2009-1 4 7 10 2010-1 4 7 10 2011-1 4 7 10 2012-1 4 7 10 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 10 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1 26
  • 26. 27272727 Real Sector Confidence Index Source: CBRT 27 40 60 80 100 120 140 2007-1 4 7 10 2008-1 4 7 10 2009-1 4 7 10 2010-1 4 7 10 2011-1 4 7 10 2012-1 4 7 10 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 10 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1
  • 27. 28282828 Consumer Confidence Index Source: TURKSTAT 50 60 70 80 90 2007-1 4 7 10 2008-1 4 7 10 2009-1 4 7 10 2010-1 4 7 10 2011-1 4 7 10 2012-1 4 7 10 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 10 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1 28
  • 29. 3030 Unemployment Rate * (%) 9.5 9.0 9.2 10.0 13.1 11.1 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.9 10.7 10.5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014Nov. 2015Nov. Source: TURKSTAT * The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
  • 30. 31 Youth Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, %) Source: OECD
  • 31. 323232 Employment * (Seasonally Adjusted, Million People) Source: TURKSTAT 32 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 *As of November 2015. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
  • 32. 30.0 3.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 Labor Force (Million People) Unemployed (Million People, right axis) Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted) 33Source: TURKSTAT *As of November 2015. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
  • 33. Labour Force Indicators * (Seasonally Adjusted) 51.5 46.2 10.4 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 38 41 44 47 50 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 Labour Force Participation Rate (%) Employment Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%, right axis) 34Source: TURKSTAT *As of November 2015. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
  • 34. 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 Agriculture Employment (sea. adj.) Agriculture Employment Agriculture (million people) Employment Developments by Sector * 35 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 Industry Employment (sea.adj.) Industry Employment Industry (million people) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 Construction Employment (sea.adj.) Construction Employment Construction (million people) 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 Services Employment (sea.adj.) Services Employment Services (million people) Source: TURKSTAT *As of November 2015. The Household Labor Force Survey has started to report a new series of data since the period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. Results regarding the periods 2005-January 2014 are estimated by an econometric model.
  • 35. 36 Sector Shares in Total Employment (%) Sectoral Transition of Employment -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 9 11 2013-1 3 5 7 9 11 2014-1 3 5 7 9 11 2015-1 3 5 7 9 11 Agriculture Industry Construction Services Sector Contributions to Employment Growth(% points) Source: TURKSTAT
  • 36. 37 Employment Status at Work (%) Source: TURKSTAT
  • 37. Informal Employment Rate (%) 38 Source: TURKSTAT
  • 38. 39 Labour Force Participation Rate (%) Source: TURKSTAT
  • 39. Labour Force Participation Rate by Education Level (2014, %) 40 Male Female Higher Education Note: The balloon size reflects the labour force share of the relevant group. Higher Education Source: TURKSTAT
  • 41. 424242 Average Inflation in Periods (%) 62.7 71.6 10.5 9.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1983-94 1995-2001 2002-2015 2016-January Source: TURKSTAT
  • 42. 434343 8.8 7.5 6.0 5.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2015* 2016 2017 2018 Year End CPI Forecasts in 2016-2018 (%) (*) Realization. Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018, January 2016.
  • 43. 444444 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Food Energy CPI excluding unprocessed food and energy Food, Energy and Core Inflation (January 2006 – January 2016 , year-on-year percentage change) Inflation: Recent Developments Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
  • 44. 454545 0 5 10 15 20 25 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-11 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 Services Transport Services Rent Restaurants and Hotels Inflation: Recent Developments Services Inflation and Selected Sub-items (January 2006 – January 2016 , year-on-year change, percent) Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
  • 45. 464646 Inflation – Overall Trend* 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2006-1 4 7 10 2007-1 4 7 10 2008-1 4 7 10 2009-1 4 7 10 2010-1 4 7 10 2011-1 4 7 10 2012-1 4 7 10 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 10 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1 Inflation Trend (January 2006 – January 2016 , percentage change) (*) As of January 2016. Monthly change of seasonally adjusted SCA-I index (3 month moving average) . Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
  • 46. 29.8 5.6 5.0 59.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Food Energy Tobacco Others 474747 Average of 2004 – 2015 January 2016 Inflation – Main Determinants Contribution to CPI Inflation (Percentage Share) Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury 30.38 14.51 7.47 47.83 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Food Energy Tobacco Others
  • 47. 4848 Inflation and Expectations*: (Annual % Change) 7.96 7.29 9.58 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2007-1 4 7 10 2008-1 4 7 10 2009-1 4 7 10 2010-1 4 7 10 2011-1 4 7 10 2012-1 4 7 10 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 10 2015-1 7 2016-1 7 2017-1 7 2018-1 CPI 12 Months 24 Months Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT (*) CBRT’s Survey of Expectations as of February 2016. CBRT’s Survey of Expectations has been released once a month since January, 2013. 2016 Target: 5.0 % 2017 Target: 5.0 %
  • 48. 494949 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 1 03 47101 04 4 7101 05 47101 06 4 7101 07 47101 08 4 7101 09 4 7101 10 4 7101 11 4 7101 12 47101 13 4 7101 14 47101 15 4 7101 16 47101 17 4 7101 18 12 months 24 months Inflation Expectations (February 2016) End year 8.48 12 months 7.96 24 months 7.29 Annual Inflation and Expectations (%) Source: CBRT’s Survey of Expectations Year End Target
  • 50. 515151 Inflation Developments in the World -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Jan-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 May-07 Dec-07 Jul-08 Feb-09 Sep-09 Apr-10 Nov-10 Jun-11 Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Turkey World Developing Countries Developed Countries Source: IMF, TURKSTAT
  • 51. 5252 Turkey’s Rank According to Inflation Figures The total number of countries is 188 as of 2014. The ranking is in descending order. 5 7 6 10 3 7 9 36 48 29 64 61 40 61 31 50 27 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: IMF
  • 53. 5454 36.1 47.3 63.2 73.5 85.5 107.3 132.0 102.1 113.9 134.9 152.5151.8 157.6 143.9141.2 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Annual Exports (Billion USD) Source: TURKSTAT (*) Annualized as of January
  • 54. 555555 Annual Imports (Billion USD) Source: TURKSTAT 51.6 69.3 97.5 116.8 139.6 170.1 202.0 140.9 185.5 240.8236.5 251.7 242.2 207.2203.9 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* (*) Annualized as of January
  • 55. 565656 Export and Import Growth (Annualized Percentage Change over the Previous Year) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2003-1 4 7 10 2004-1 4 7 10 2005-1 4 7 10 2006-1 4 7 10 2007-1 4 7 10 2008-1 4 7 10 2009-1 4 7 10 2010-1 4 7 10 2011-1 4 7 10 2012-1 4 7 10 2013-1 4 7 10 2014-1 4 7 10 2015-1 4 7 10 2016-1 Exports Imports Source: TURKSTAT
  • 57. 585858 3.8 2.9 7.2 9.7 3.5 4.5 0 4 8 12 World Euro Area Developing Asia Middle East and North Africa Latin America Turkey Export Performance (Average Annual Growth Rate, 2005-2014) Source: TURKSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2015
  • 58. 595959 155.5 175.8 201.4 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 2016 2017 2018 Exports Targets (FOB, Billion USD) Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
  • 60. 616161 Brent Oil Price (USD/bbl) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Source: Reuters
  • 61. 626262 Impact of Energy Prices to Imports (Billion USD) 38.5 41.7 44.5 43.8 46.2 50.2 0.0 12.5 15.6 12.1 8.7 -12.3 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Reel Energy Imports with 2010 Prices Price Effect Total Enegy Imports Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 62. 636363 Machinery Imports (Billion USD) 29.4 42.6 47.9 46.1 43.2 43.043.9 35.9 12.2 15.7 21.9 26.1 29.9 35.9 36.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1996- 2002 Average 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* Source: TURKSTAT (*) Annualized as of January
  • 63. 646464 Trend line: Moving Average -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Ireland Norway CzechRepublic Russia Netherlands Germany Switzerland SlovakRepublic Hungary Slovenia Belgium Denmark Italy Sweden Poland Finland Austria Iceland Spain Japan France Romania UnitedStates Lithuania UnitedKingdom Portugal Estonia Latvia Bulgaria Turkey Luxembourg Greece Morocco Cyprus Malta Foreign Trade (% of GDP, 2014) Source: WTO, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2015
  • 64. 656565 -2.5 -3.6 -4.5 -6.0 -5.8 -5.4 -1.9 -6.2 -9.7 -6.2 -7.9 -5.8 1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.2 -1.4 0.1 2.2 -1.6 -3.6 0.5 -1.9 0.3 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CA Balance/GDP CA Balance/GDP (Excluding Energy) Current Account Balance / GDP (%) Souce: CBRT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 65. 666666 Trend line: Moving Average -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Netherlands Norway Germany Switzerland Slovenia Denmark Sweden Luxembourg Hungary Ireland Iceland Malta Russia Italy Belgium Greece Spain Austria CzechRepublic Portugal Japan Lithuania Estonia SlovakRepublic Bulgaria Romania France Poland Finland UnitedStates Latvia Cyprus Morocco Turkey UnitedKingdom Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2015 Current Account Balance (% of GDP, 2014)
  • 66. 676767 Financing of Current Account Deficit (Billion USD) Source: CBRT 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current Account Balance -14.2 -21.0 -31.2 -36.9 -39.4 -11.4 -44.6 -74.4 -48.0 -63.6 -43.6 -32.2 Capital Inflows (Excluding Reserves) 20.1 37.7 48.5 48.8 49.7 -3.5 49.1 51.4 68.7 67.6 41.8 25.7 Foreign Direct Investment 2.8 10.0 20.2 22.0 19.9 8.6 9.1 16.2 13.3 12.4 12.5 16.6 Non-Bank Private Sector’s Net Credits 7.7 12.6 17.1 29.3 26.4 -13.0 -2.8 8.3 7.2 4.1 6.9 13.7 Other (Net) 9.7 15.1 11.2 -2.5 3.5 0.9 42.8 26.9 48.1 51.1 22.4 -4.5 Net Errors and Ommissions 0.8 1.5 -0.9 -0.3 2.0 2.3 -0.5 8.3 -0.9 1.4 1.6 9.7 Bank’s Currency and Deposits 6.0 0.3 10.3 3.5 13.3 -12.7 -8.8 -12.9 -1.0 -4.5 0.3 15.0 Change in Reserves 0.8 17.8 6.1 8.0 -1.1 0.1 12.8 -1.8 20.8 9.9 -0.5 -11.8
  • 67. 686868 1.1 1.7 2.8 10.0 20.2 22.0 19.9 8.6 9.1 16.2 13.3 12.4 12.5 16.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 1993-2002 Average 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (Billion USD) Source: CBRT 68
  • 68. 696969 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Short-Term Capital Long-Term Capital Direct Investments (Net) Portfolio Investments Capital Inflows (Billion USD) 69 Source: CBRT
  • 69. 707070 Central Bank’s Gross FX Reserves (Billion USD) (*) As of February 19, 2016. Source: CBRT 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 J02 A J O J03 A J O J04 A J O J05 A J O J06 A J O J07 A J O J08 A J O J09 A J O J10 A J O J11 A J O J12 A J O J-13 N T O J-14 A J O J-15 A J O J-16 $92.9 billion*
  • 70. 717171 -31.7 -28.6 -29.3 -29.9 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018 Current Account Balance Targets (Billion USD)
  • 71. 727272 Current Account Balance Targets (% of GDP) -4.4 -3.9 -3.7 -3.5 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018
  • 73. 747474 Central Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP) (*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets Source: Ministry of Finance, 2016-2018 MTP-Revised 11.9 11.5 8.8 5.2 1.1 0.6 1.6 1.8 5.5 3.6 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*2016*2017*2018*
  • 74. 757575 General Government Budget Deficit Excl. Privatization (% of GDP) (*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets Source: Ministry of Development, 2016-2018 MTP-Revised 12.5 10.9 8.0 4.4 0.7 0.2 1.6 2.5 5.9 3.4 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
  • 75. 767676 Maastricht Criterion: 3.0 % EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP) Source: Eurostat
  • 76. 777777 General Government Deficit (% of GDP, 2013) Source: Eurostat -0.2 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Ireland Greece UK Portugal Spain Latvia Poland Slovakia Lithuania France Romania Slovenia S.Cyprus Netherlands CzechRep. Italy Austria Germany Hungary Croatia Belgium Malta Bulgaria Turkey Denmark Finland Luxembourg Estonia Sweden Maastricht criterion: 3 %
  • 77. 7878 Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP) (*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets Source: Ministry of Development, 2016-2018 MTP-Revised 7.0 12.1 10.0 7.3 3.6 -0.1 -1.9 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.4 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990- 2000 Ort. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018*
  • 78. 797979 2003-2014 Average: 2.3 Public Sector Primary Surplus (Program Definition) (% of GDP) (*) 2016-2018: Revised Medium Term Program targets Source: For pre-2012 Undersecretariat of Treasury, for 2012 and onwards Ministry of Development 0.3 4.7 5.5 4.8 4.5 3.1 1.6 -1.0 0.7 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
  • 79. 808080 Privatization Implementations (Billion USD) 8.2 56.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1985-2003 2003 - 2014 Source: Privatization Authority
  • 80. 818181 Medium Term Program (% GDP) Source: Ministry of Development, Revised Medium Term Program 2016-2018, January 2016 2015 2016 2017 2018 Central Government Budget Balance -1.2 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 Central Government Revenues 24.6 24.5 23.9 23.3 Central Government Expeditures 25.8 25.9 24.9 24.2 Central Government Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 Central Government Revenues (IMF Definition) 23.5 23.4 23.0 22.9 Central Government Primary Expenditures (IMF Definition) 23.1 23.3 22.5 21.9 Rest Of Public Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 Total Public Sector Primary Balance (IMF Definition) 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.3
  • 82. 838383 59.6 52.7 40.0 46.0 42.3 39.1 36.2 36.1 33.5 33.8 33.7 34.6 67.7 74.0 39.9 46.5 30 40 50 60 70 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 General Government Gross Debt Stock (EU Defined, % of GDP) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
  • 83. 848484 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 Japan Greece Italy Portugal Cyprus Ireland Belgium USA Spain France UnitedKingdom Canada Austria Slovenia Hungary Germany Malta Netherlands Finland Slovakia Poland Denmark Sweden CzechRepublic Lithuania Latvia Romania Turkey Bulgaria Luxembourg Estonia General Government Gross Debt (% of GDP, 2014) Maastricht Criterion: 60 % Source: Eurostat (Updated: Feb 08, 2016), Undersecretariat of Treasury (As of December 31, 2015) For USA, Japan, Canada: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2015)
  • 84. 858585 EU Defined Debt Stock (% of GDP) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Euro area (17 countries) 78.6 84.0 86.2 89.6 91.4 92.4 European Union (27 coun 73.1 78.5 81.1 83.8 85.5 86.8 Greece 126.7 146.2 172.0 159.4 177.0 178.6 Italy 112.5 115.3 116.4 123.2 128.8 132.3 Portugal 83.6 96.2 111.4 126.2 129.0 130.2 Belgium 99.5 99.6 102.2 104.1 105.1 106.7 Spain 52.7 60.1 69.5 85.4 93.7 99.3 France 79.0 81.7 85.2 89.6 92.3 95.6 United Kingdom 65.7 76.6 81.8 85.3 86.2 88.2 Austria 79.7 82.4 82.2 81.6 80.8 84.2 Hungary 78.0 80.6 80.8 78.3 76.8 76.2 Germany 72.5 81.0 78.4 79.7 77.4 74.9 Netherlands 56.5 59.0 61.7 66.4 67.9 68.2 Türkiye 46.0 42.3 39.1 36.2 36.1 33.5 Source: Eurostat, (Updated: 08-02-2016 ); Undersecretariat of Treasury, (As of December 31, 2015)
  • 85. 868686 EU – Defined Debt Stock Targets (% of GDP) 32.6 31.7 30.5 29.5 28 30 32 34 36 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Ministry of Development, Medium Term Economic Programme 2016-2018, January 2016
  • 86. 878787 Public Net Debt Stock (% of GDP) 26.2 31.3 30 31.3 27.6 26.2 29.9 28.1 21.6 20.3 17.6 14.7 13.4 12.5 11.4 35.4 23.9 19.1 10.4 6.5 3.3 2.9 2.7 0.9 0.7 -3.3 -5 -4 -4.2 -4.1 -3.8 25.3 7.6 8.5 9.2 10.7 12.6 17 28.9 32.5 28.229.5 34.0 41.7 49.1 55.2 61.5 22.4 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 TL FX Denominated/Indexed Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 87. 888888 Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 I- Public Gross Debt Stock 497.1 546.5 562.9 623.4 650.2 673.0 690.7 734.0 • Central Government 473.6 518.4 532.2 585.8 612.1 633.6 651.8 690.2 • Rest of the Public Sector 23.6 28.2 30.7 37.5 38.1 39.4 38.9 43.8 II- Assets and Public Sector Deposit 179.3 256.4 322.3 425.6 463.1 508.5 535.5 590.6 • Central Bank Net Assets 86.2 143.2 189.5 271.1 304.4 344.0 352.5 406.1 • Public Sector Deposits 47.2 59.8 71.6 84.2 77.4 80.2 95.8 94.5 • Unemployment Insurance Fund 45.9 53.5 61.2 70.4 81.4 84.4 87.2 90.0 III- Public Net Debt Stock 317.8 290.1 240.6 197.7 187.1 164.4 155.3 143.4
  • 88. 898989 Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 89. 909090 Central Government Interest Payments / GDP (%) 14.8 12.9 10.1 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.3 5.6 4.4 3.3 3.4 3.2 2.9 0 5 10 15 20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: Ministry of Finance (*) Provisional
  • 90. 919191 Central Government Interest Payments / Tax Revenues (%) 85.7 70.9 56.3 38.2 33.4 31.9 30.1 30.9 22.9 16.6 17.4 15.3 14.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* Source: Ministry of Finance (*) Provisional
  • 91. 929292 Interest Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 92. 939393 Currency Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 93. 949494 Sensitivity of General Government Debt to Shocks 2001 2014 Change in real exchange rate app/dep by 5 percentage points + / - 2.2 points + / - 0.6 points Change in TL interest rate by* 10 percent + / - 2.1 points + / - 0.2 points 25 percent + / - 5.2 points + / - 0.5 points Change in GDP growth rate by 2 percentage points + / - 1.6 points + / - 0.7 points Change in Primary Surplus/GDP ratio by 1 percentage point + / - 1.0 points + / - 1.0 points (*) Reflects percent change in TL interest rate in succeeding years. Note: The effects of scenarios on “General Government Debt Stock/GDP” ratio (as defined by ESA standards) measured by deviations from baseline scenarios based on end-2001 and end-2014 stock realizations. Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 94. 959595 Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 4.4 7.1 10.3 13.6 13.4 10.3 8.6 12.5 17.3 23.2 21.5 21.8 17.4 17.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-16
  • 95. 969696 Average Maturity of Borrowing Domestic Borrowing (months) Eurobond Issuance (years) (*) As of January, 2016 (**) As of February, 2016 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 9.4 11.6 14.8 31.7 35.3 44.144.7 60.8 74.3 68.5 71.870.4 34.0 28.027.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 8.2 9.5 10.1 12.2 9.9 8.0 9.0 17.6 16.5 22.4 14.214.8 9.1 20.620.2 13.7 19.7 10.0 10.0 6.6 5.0 15.3 15.7 7.0 8.6 20.0 10.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016** Euro Dollar Yen
  • 96. 979797Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury Duration of TL-Denominated Domestic Debt Stock* (Months) 6.6 8.0 8.2 10.2 8.1 7.5 10.6 12.5 15.0 23.1 28.9 30.3 31.3 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Dec.04 Dec.05 Dec.06 Dec.07 Dec.08 Dec.09 Dec.10 Dec.11 Dec.12 Dec.13 Dec.14 Dec.15 Jan.16 (*) Macaulay duration
  • 97. 989898 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury Duration of External Bond Stock* (Years) 4.1 4.9 5.6 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.4 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 Dec.04 Dec.05 Dec.06 Dec.07 Dec.08 Dec.09 Dec.10 Dec.11 Dec.12 Dec.13 Dec.14 Dec.15 Jan.16 (*) Macaulay duration
  • 98. 999999 Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months) 12.8 12.4 11.8 19.6 22.3 25.7 24.4 25.0 30.9 31.1 33.7 47.0 55.0 55.1 56.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 602002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-16 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 99. 100100100 Cost of External Borrowing (%) EURODOLLAR 4.5 4.2 5.0 6.0 5.45.3 6.3 9.9 9.9 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* (*) As of February, 2016 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 10.7 7.0 7.3 6.2 5.8 4.9 4.3 5.8 4.7 10.1 8.1 6.9 7.37.3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
  • 100. 101101101 TRY Denominated Zero Coupon Borrowing Rates (Comp. Ann., %) Source: Undersecretariat ofTreasury 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 J 02 M S J 03 M S J 04 M S J 05 M S J 06 M S J 07 M S J 08 M S J 09 M S J 10 M S J 11 M S J 12 M S J 13 M S J 14 M S J 15 M S J Monthly Average Yearly Cumulative
  • 101. 102102102 Real Interest Rates (Comp. Ann., %) Note: - The real interest rates are calculated by using 12 months ahead CPI rates. Calculations are based on zero coupon Treasury auction results and Survey of Expectations of CBRT. - Before 2013, the calculations are only based on zero coupon bonds however, as of 2013 they’re based on zero coupon bonds and 2-year fixed coupon bonds together. Source: CBRT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 103. 104104104 Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 16.2 13.8 10.2 7.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.5 0.6 3.2 16.2 11.2 5.5 5.1 3.6 0 4 8 12 16 20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  • 104. Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD) Source: Treasury 11,052 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q3 105
  • 105. Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock Source: Treasury Million USD 2015 Q3 PUBLIC 6,530 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 300 LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 838 PUBLIC BANKS 4,503 SOEs 888 PRIVATE 4,523 BANKS 4,523 GENERAL TOTAL 11,052 106
  • 106. 107 The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total Guaranteed Payments (%) * Annualized as of January 2016 Source: Treasury 2,92,93,4 51,9 27,3 18,1 16,7 19,7 24,7 16,4 22,1 8,2 3,9 6,4 5,4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 January*
  • 108. 109109109 The Stock of Treasury Receivables (Billion TL) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 2.4 6.3 5.9 8.8 12.9 8.0 7.1 7.3 8.2 9.0 8.3 8.6 7.9 5.0 0.4 3.9 4.0 4.4 7.5 13.4 12.4 10.0 13.3 15.3 13.6 17.4 19.1 17.0 15.9 13.9 14.9 16.3 13.8 13.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Overdue projected 6.8 13.8 19.3 21.2 22.9 21.3 22.4 20.9 25.6 28.1 25.3 21.8 24.5 19.9 16.7 17.7 17.8
  • 109. 110 By Source The Stock of Treasury Receivables (January 2016) By Borrowers Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 110. 111111111 Collections (Million TL) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 1,514 417 35 1,561 1,219 1,937 104 699 2,188 1,970 1,503 5,249 2,053 3,198 3,084 1,794 2,641 1,872 2,606 2,446 2,492 1,118 910 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Non-Cash Cash
  • 111. 112112112 Gross External Debt Stock (Billion USD) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT Billion USD 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 TOTAL 208.1 250.0 281.0 268.9 292.0 303.9 339.0 389.1 402.5 392.8 404.9 406.0 SHORT TERM 42.9 43.1 52.5 49.0 77.2 81.6 100.2 130.4 132.8 129.5 127.1 120.8 LONG TERM 165.3 206.9 228.4 220.0 214.8 222.3 238.8 258.6 269.7 263.3 277.8 285.2 PUBLIC SECTOR 71.6 73.5 78.3 83.5 89.1 94.3 104.0 115.9 117.7 113.4 115.7 114.8 SHORT TERM 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.6 4.3 7.0 11.0 17.6 17.9 18.2 16.9 15.4 LONG TERM 69.8 71.4 75.1 79.9 84.8 87.3 93.0 98.3 99.8 95.2 98.8 99.4 CBRT 15.7 15.8 14.1 13.2 11.6 9.3 7.1 5.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.6 SHORT TERM 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 LONG TERM 13.1 13.5 12.2 11.4 10.0 8.1 6.1 4.4 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.3 PRIVATE SECTOR 120.8 160.7 188.6 172.3 191.4 200.3 227.9 267.9 282.3 277.3 287.2 289.6 SHORT TERM 38.5 38.7 47.4 43.6 71.4 73.3 88.1 112.0 114.6 111.0 109.9 105.3 LONG TERM 82.3 122.0 141.2 128.6 119.9 127.0 139.8 155.9 167.7 166.3 177.3 184.4
  • 112. 113113113 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT 49.5 52.4 54.7 47.3 50.4 43.1 39.339.9 43.6 37.938.5 39.5 35.5 41.3 47.3 56.2 30 40 50 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 Gross External Debt Stock / GDP (%)
  • 113. 114114114 Turkey’s Net External Debt (% of GDP) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT 29.5 31.7 32.4 30.5 27.8 23.8 20.720.620.6 26.4 31.5 38.4 39.9 20.5 23.7 23.6 24.1 10 20 30 40 50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3
  • 114. 115115115 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury, CBRT External Debt Ratios (%) % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 39.5 38.5 37.9 43.6 39.9 39.3 43.1 47.3 50.4 49.5 52.4 54.7 PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / GDP 23.0 24.8 25.4 27.9 26.2 25.9 29.0 32.5 35.3 34.9 37.2 39.0 GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) 243.3 233.1 212.8 263.3 256.4 225.3 222.4 256.3 255.4 254.2 268.1 277.2 PRIVATE SECTOR GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK / EXPORT (FOB) 141.3 149.8 142.8 168.7 168.0 148.5 149.5 176.5 179.1 179.4 190.2 197.8 CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK 29.3 29.3 25.3 26.3 27.6 25.8 29.5 28.5 26.6 25.8 24.9 25.0 CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) / SHORT TERM GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK 142.1 169.9 135.2 144.3 104.5 96.2 99.7 85.1 80.5 78.2 79.3 84.0
  • 116. 117117117 Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Source: BRSA
  • 118. 119119119 Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio in Selected Emerging Markets (%, 2015Q3*) Source: IMF-FSI, BRSA * Quarter-end figures or latest available. 20.2 18.1 17.4 17.2 16.7 16.5 15.5 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.2 14.2 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 6.00 10.00 14.00 18.00 22.00 Indonesia Romania Colombia Hungary CzechRep. Thailand Brazil Malaysia Mexico Poland Turkey Korea Chile China Russia India
  • 119. 120120120 Banking Sector: Free Capital*/ Equity (%) (*) Free Capital = Total Equity – (Fixed Assets + Affiliates, Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures) Source: BRSA 36.3 51.0 56.0 65.7 72.6 75.3 77.0 79.6 81.4 81.6 82.0 81.6 81.1 77.6 77.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-1
  • 120. 121121121 Banking Sector: Return on Equity (%) Source: BRSA 11.3 18.2 15.8 12.1 21.0 24.8 18.6 22.8 20.0 15.5 15.7 14.2 12.3 11.3 0.9 0.9 0 10 20 30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015- 1 2016- 1
  • 121. 122122122 Banking Sector: Loans to Assets (%) Source: BRSA 23.0 26.5 32.4 37.8 43.8 49.1 50.2 47.1 52.2 56.1 58.0 60.5 62.2 63.0 63.1 15 25 35 45 55 65 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-01
  • 122. 123123123 Banking Sector: FX Position (Million USD) (*) As of February 19, 2016. Source: BRSA -549 187 -71 -63 141 -217 16 408 41 315 1,590 -363 -2,870 436 380 -3300 -2600 -1900 -1200 -500 200 900 1600 2300 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
  • 123. 124124124 Banking Sector: Asset Quality (NPL Ratio, %) Source: BRSA 17.5 11.5 6.0 4.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 5.3 3.7 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 6.2 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0 4 8 12 16 20 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-1 Gross Net
  • 124. 125125125 Firms Total Debt / Shareholder’s Equity and Interest Coverage* (Earnings Before Interest and Tax / Interest Expenses) Ratios (%) (*) Provisional Statistics Sorce: CBRT Company Accounts 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Total Debt / Shareholder's Equity Interest Coverage Ratio
  • 125. 126126126 Household Liabilities (% of GDP) 10 12 14 16 18 19 21 24 23 23 62 63 64 67 67 66 65 64 68 68 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Turkey Euro Area * 2015-Q3 figures. Source: CBRT, ECB
  • 126. 127127127 Total Housing Loans (% of GDP) Source: FED, ECB, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK National Statistics, CBRT, TURKSTAT, BRSA, HDAT (*) Total housing loans for 2010 comprises of housing credits extended by banks and consumer finance companies as well as Household liabilities to HDAT due to HDAT’s housing sales with long term maturity. 83.6 71.8 40.7 6.2 0.2 60.3 52.1 29.6 0 20 40 60 80 100 UK US Euro Zone Turkey* 2001 2010
  • 128. 129129129 Foreign Exchange Rates (TL/USD) Source: CBRT 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16
  • 129. 130130130 Interest Rates (%) Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury 0 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Domestic Debt Securities Secondary Market Rates
  • 131. 132132132 Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp) Source: JP Morgan -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 D-00 J-01 F-02 A-02 M-03 O-03 A-04 N-04 J-05 D-05 J-06 F-07 A-07 M-08 O-08 M-09 N-09 J-10 D-10 J-11 F-12 A-12 M-13 O-13 M-14 N-14 J-15 J-16 (EMBI+ Turkey) - (EMBI+) EMBI+ EMBI+ Turkey
  • 132. 133133133 Secondary Market and CBRT Policy Rate Source: CBRT, Treasury 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 CompoundedInterestRates(%) Secondary Market Rates CBRT Policy Rates
  • 133. 134134134 Credit Rating Standard & Poor’s Credit Rating Source: Bloomberg Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 N S P BB- N S P B N S P B- N S P BB N S P BB+ N S P B+
  • 134. 135135135 Rating Map (as of February 29, 2016) A2 Botswana, Poland, Slovakia A Trianidad & Tobago, Slovenia A Malta, Ireland A3 Malta, Mexico, Peru, Lithuania, Latvia A- Botswana, Lithuania, Latvia, Saudi Arabia A- Poland, Latvia, Lithuania Baa1 Thailand, Mauritius, Ireland BBB+ Thailand, Malta, Poland BBB+ Thailand, Italy, Mexico, Slovenia, Peru, Mexico, Spain, Iceland Peru, Spain, Iceland Baa2 Kazakhstan, Bulgari, Italy, Iceland BBB Panama BBB Kazakhstan, Panama, Spain, Uruguay, Colombia, Bahamas Colombia, Philippines, Uruguay Panama South Africa, Philippines, Trianidad & Tobago, Iceland Colombia Baa3 Turkey (negative), Namibia, India, Romania, BBB- Morocco, India, Kazakhstan BBB- Turkey (stable), Morocco, Namibia, India, Indonesia, Slovenia, Bahrain Romania, South Africa Romania, Indonesia, Bulgaria Italy, Bahamas Uruguay, Philippines, Russia, Bahrain, South Africa Ba1 Morocco, Albania, Hungary, Costa Rica BB+ Turkey (negative), Indonesia BB+ Costa Rica, Brazil Guatemala, Croatia, Portugal, Russia, Paraguay Bulgaria, Russia, Hungary Hungary, Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Portugal, Azerbaijan Ba2 El Salvador, Angola, Brazil BB Guatemala BB Guatemala, Croatia, Bolivia Crotia, Bahrain, Brazil Ba3 Bangladesh, Georgia, Montenegro, BB- Bangladesh, Georgia, Vietnam, El Salvador, BB- Sri Lanka, Georgia, Suriname, Bolivia, Suriname, Tunisia Paraguay, Suriname, Bolivia, Montenegro, Jordan El Salvador, Tunisia, Vietnam, Bangladesh Costa Rica B1 Senegal, Sri Lanka, Jordan, B+ Senegal, Sri Lanka, Fiji B+ Angola Dominican Republic, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Papua New Guinea St Vincent/Grenadine, Vietnam Honduras, Albania B2 Cambodia, Mongolia, Lebanon, Nicaragua B Bosnia Herzegovina, Cambodia, Jamaica B Lebanon, Ecuador, Egypt, Mongolia, Jamaica Tunisia, Barbados, Ecuador, Mongolia, Angola B3 Moldova, Barbados, Egypt, Pakistan B- Pakistan, Belarus, Lebanon, Belize B- Bosnia Herzegovina, Honduras, Ecuador Egypt, Ukraine, Greece Caa1 Argentina, Belarus CCC+ CCC+ Caa2 Belize, Cuba, Greece, Jamaica CCC Venezuela CCC Venezuela, Greece, Ukraine Caa3 Venezuela, Greece, Ukraine CCC- CCC- Ca CC CC C C C SD Argentina DDD D/RD Argentina Source: Bloomberg Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch
  • 135. 136136136 EMBI+ Index: Comparison with Other Countries Change (bp) (02.01.2008 – 29.02.2016) Source: Bloomberg 2379 627 279 190 163 161 104 100 77 38 -88 -300 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2400 2700 3000 3300 Venezuela Ukraine Brazil EMBI+ S. Africa Colombia Mexico Russia Turkey Argentina Phillipines
  • 136. 137137137 Equity Markets (Emerging and Mature Markets) % Change (02.01.2008 – 29.02.2016) Source: Bloomberg 51.5 36.9 27.6 18.2 15.3 12.4 3.4 -9.6 -17.9 -33.8 -49 -52.6 -66.9 68.9 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 S. Africa Mexico Turkey USA (DJI) Russia Malaysia India S. Korea Hungary Poland Brazil China Japan Chech Rep.
  • 137. 138138138 Currency Markets (Against USD) % Change (02.01.2008 – 29.02.2016) Source: Bloomberg -210.7 -153.3 -135.5 -125.8 -73.7 -67.1 -65.4 -62.9 -38.3 -34.9 -32.0 -26.9 -3.0 10.1 -240 -220 -200 -180 -160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 Russia Turkey S. Africa Brazil India Mexico Hungary Poland Czech Rep. Euro S. Korea Malaysia Japan China
  • 139. 140140140 Starting a Business (Number of Procedures) Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2014 13 13 12 9 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 0 4 8 12 16 20 China Brazil India Czech Rep. Mexico Croatia Turkey Europe&Central Asia South Africa OECD Poland Hungary Bulgaria Thailand
  • 140. 141141141 Starting a Business (Duration, Days) 33 30 27.5 27 19.5 19 18 15 12.8 11.1 8 6 6 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 China Poland Thailand India Czech Republic South Africa Bulgaria Russia Europe& Central Asia OECD Croatia Mexico Turkey Hungary Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2014
  • 141. 142142142 Starting a Business (Cost, % of GDP Per Capita) Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2014 1 1.3 2 3.6 4.6 6.7 6.7 8.2 8.6 9.3 12.7 14.3 19.7 0 5 10 15 20 25 Bulgaria Russia China OECD Brazil Thailand Europe&Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Croatia Turkey Poland Mexico
  • 142. 143143143 Taxes on Income and Profit (% of GDP, 2012) Source: OECD Factbook 2014 (*) 2011 Data 6.0 11.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Mexico SlovakRepublic Turkey Poland* Hungary Estonia Slovenia CzechRepublic Korea Chile Greece Portugal Japan Israel Spain Netherlands* France Germany OECD* UnitedStates Ireland UnitedKingdom Austria Switzerland Luxembourg Canada Italy Finland Sweden Australia* Belgium Iceland NewZealand Norway Denmark
  • 143. 144144144 Tax Revenue Comparisons (% of GDP, 2011) (*) Includes Mexico, Korea, Czech Rep., Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Rep. and Spain. Source: OECD, Factbook 2014 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Total Tax Revenue Income Taxes Taxes on Goods and Services Turkey OECD Comparative Group*
  • 145. 146146146 Relations with the IMF Arrangements Duration Amount Approved (Million SDR) Amount Drawn (Million SDR) Repurchases (Million SDR) Projected Payments (Million SDR) 17th Stand-By Arrangement (12.1999 - 02.2002) 15,038 11,739 11,739 0 18th Stand-by Arrangement (02.2002 - 02.2005) 12,821 11,914 11,914 0 19th Stand-by Arrangement (05.2005 - 05.2008) 6,662 6,662 6,662 0 TOTAL 34,522 30,315 30,315 0 Source: Undersecretariat of Treasury
  • 146. 147147147 For 1 Chapter 1- Science and Research For 12 Chapters For 2 Chapters 1- Education and Culture, 2- Economic and Monetary Policy For 8 Chapters Remaining chapters EU Accession Process Negotiations were opened and provisionally closed Negotiations were opened provisionally but closing benchmarks Submission of our Position Papers Opening benchmarks Awaiting for the screening reports I. Screening process: 3 October 2005 - 13 October 2006 II. Accession Talks : 1- Enterprise and Industrial Policy,2- Statistics, 3- Financial Control, 4- Consumer and Health Protection, 5- Trans-European Networks, 6- Company Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks), 7-Intellectual Property Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks) 8- Free Movement of Capital 9- Information Society & Media 10-Taxation, 11- Environment, 12- Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy
  • 148. 149149149 Social Security Reform Uniform norm and standards for workers. civil servants and the self employed Gradual increase in retirement age to 65 Decrease in accrual rate to 2 %. The valorization of past earnings by CPI+30 % of GDP real growth Indexation of pensions to CPI Universal health insurance A new health scheme for the poor as of 2012 Introduction of copayments for health care Global budget in some health expenditures Main Features
  • 149. 150150150 Decrease in Pension System Deficits (2007-2075,% of GDP) Source: World Bank, 2007 Before the Reform After the Reform
  • 150. 151151 Net Replacement Rates, 2012 Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2013 Low Earner Average Earner
  • 151. 152152 Retirement Age for Men (2010) 44.9 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Turkey Greece Italy Hungary Korea Luxembourg France CzechRep. SlovakRep. Estonia Slovenia OECD Japan Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Denmark Finland Germany Ireland Mexico Netherlands NewZealand Poland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland UnitedKingdom UnitedStates Iceland Israel Norway Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
  • 152. 153153 Retirement Age for Women (2010) Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
  • 153. 154154 Life Expectancy After Pensionable Age for Men (2010) 30.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Poland Estonia Slovakia Norway Denmark Israel USA Hungary Iceland Portugal Belgium Mexico Chile Netherlands Slovenia Finland Germany Ireland Austria UK Czechrep. Spain Swedish newZealand Canada OECDAvg. Switzerland Australia Japan Korea Luxembourg France Italy Greece Turkey Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
  • 154. 155155 Life Expectancy After Pensionable Age for Women (2010) 37.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Mexico Iceland Norway Denmark USA Portugal Germany Ireland Netherlands Belgium NewZealand Swedish Finland Canada Spain Estonia Hungary Australia OECDAvg. Poland Israel Swiss Slovenia Czechrep. Slovakia UK Chile Luxembourg Austria Korea France Japan Italy Greece Turkey Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2012
  • 156. 157157157 Labor Market Reform Reduction of labor cost 5 points of social security premium is covered by state. Benefiting of 5 points of social security premium incentive, simultaneously with other employment incentives is enabled. Employer contribution of newly employed young and female workers is covered by Unemployment Insurance Fund. The employers’ share of social security premium for disabled workers is covered from the budget. The application area of short-term payment is extended to sectoral and regional crises together with general economic crises. Daily short time working allowance that was 40% of daily average gross income is increased to 60%. Active labor market programs The budget allocation for active labor market program is increased by four times and raised to 1.5 billion TL per year. (In previous implementation it was 30% of state contribution now it is 30% of total premium income) Elimination of non-financial burdens: Obligation of ex-convicts employment is abolished. Sports facility, kindergarden, health and security unit’s requirements regulated in the Labor Law are alleviated. Increasing Flexibility of Labor Market Part-time workers will be eligible for retirement benefits by indebting their remaining hours from regular working hours. Part-time workers are covered by Unemployment Insurance Fund as regular workers.
  • 157. 158158158Source: OECD Taxing Wages, 2013 Not: UR-07 is the level of tax wedge for Turkey in 2007 42.7 38.2 35.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Belgium France Germany Hungary Austria Italy Sweden TUR-07 Finland CzechRepublic Greece EU-21 Spain SlovakRepublic Netherlands Denmark Turkey Norway Portugal Luxembourg OECD-Average Poland Iceland UnitedKingdom Japan Canada UnitedStates Australia Ireland Switzerland Korea Mexico NewZealand Tax Wedge After Reform (Single person at 100% of average earnings, no child, 2012)
  • 158. 159159159 (*) Single without children at the income level of average worker Source: OECD Taxing Wages 2013 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 N.Zealand Mexico Korea Sw itzerla Ireland Australia USA Canada Japan UK Iceland Poland OECD Luxembo Portugal Norw ay Turkey Netherlan Denmark Spain Greece Czech Finland Sw eden Italy Austria Hungary Germany France Belgium Income Tax Employee's SSC Employer's SSC Income Tax Plus Employee’s and Employer’s Social Security Contributions* (% of labor costs, 2012)
  • 159. 160 Number of Insured Employees (Million Persons) Source: Social Security Instutions, Montly Statistical Bulletin January 2015
  • 160. 161 Social Security Coverage (Million Persons) (Employees and Dependents) Source: Social Security Instutions, Monthly Statistical Bulletin January 2015
  • 161. Unemployment Rate by Cities (2013) Source: TURKSTAT, 08.10.2014 Van 162
  • 162. 163163163 Source: stats.oecd.org Agriculture Industry Services Turkey 25.5 26.5 48.1 Mexico 13.4 24.4 62.2 Poland 13.1 30.7 56.2 Korea 6.4 24.8 68.9 Hungary 4.9 30.9 64.2 Spain 4.2 21.9 73.9 Italy 3.7 28.8 67.5 Japan 3.5 24.8 71.7 Czech Rep. 3.0 38.5 58.5 Canada 2.1 19.8 78.1 UK 1.2 19.1 79.7 Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity, 2011 (%)
  • 163. 164164164 Restrictiveness of Protection Legislation on Temporary Employment (Index Scale of 0-6 from Least to Most Restrictive) 4.88 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Canada USA UK SlovakRep. Ireland Australia Switzerland CzechRep. Hungary Netherlands Japan N.Zeland Denmark Austria Sweden Korea Germany Spain Poland EU-19 Finland Italy Belgium Portugal Norvey Greece France Mexico Luxembourg Turkey 1998 2008 OECD Avg. 1.77 Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics Database, 2010
  • 164. 165165 Part-time Employment (%, 2011) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 CzechRep. SlovakRep. Hungary Belgium Poland Slovenia Estonia Greece Portugal Turkey USA Finland Spain Korea France Israel Sweden Luxembourg OECD Italy Iceland Chile Mexico Austria Denmark Canada Norway Japan NewZealand Germany UK Australia Part-time Employment as a Proportion of Total Employment Women's Share in Part-time Employment Source: OECD, Labor Force Statistics Database
  • 165. 166166166 Severance Payments Burden (2010) (As weeks of Payment for 20 Years Work) 87 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 USA Poland Bulgaria Romania Russia Ireland UK CzechRep. Canada Hungary France Greece Brazil Germany Spain Portugal Turkey Source: World Bank, Doing Business in 2011
  • 167. 168168168 In 2002, 3 billion dollars. In 2012, 12.7 billion dollars. R&D expenditures increased by 320.6 % between 2002 and 2012 Turkey: R&D Expenditures (Current PPP, USD) Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators
  • 169. 170170170 R&D Expenditure per Capita (PPP, USD) 145 166 132 121 108 100 78 67 53 43464644 39 32 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: TUBITAK
  • 170. 171171171 In 2002, 28,964 people. In 2012, 105,122 people. Number of R&D personnel increased by 262 % between 2002-2012 Turkey: Number of FTE* R&D Personnel (*) Full Time Equivalent Source: TURKSTAT
  • 171. 172172172 Turkey: Number of FTE R&D Personnel Source: TURKSTAT 27,003 27,698 28,964 38,308 39,960 49,252 54,444 63,377 67,244 73,521 81,792 92,801 105,122 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 172. 173173173 In 2002, 23,995 people. In 2012, 82,122 people. Number of researchers increased by 242 % between 2002-2012 Turkey: Number of FTE Researchers (*) Full Time Equivalent Source: TURKSTAT
  • 173. 174174174 R&D Human Resources (1000 People) Source: TUBİTAK 23 24 27 28 29 38 40 49 54 63 67 74 82 93 105 82 72 64 58 53 50 43 39 3433 24232319 20 5 25 45 65 85 105 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Full-time R&D Personnel Full-time Researcher
  • 174. 175175175 In 2002, 8,975 publications. In 2012, 25,018 publications. Number of scientific publications increased by 179 % between 2002 and 2012 Turkey: Number of Scientific Publications Source: TUBİTAK
  • 175. 176176176 Turkey: Number of Scientific Publication 8,975 10,648 13,310 14,275 15,222 18,120 19,572 21,876 23,077 23,851 25,018 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: TUBİTAK
  • 176. 177177177 Number of Scientific Publications per Million People Source: TUBITAK 331 319313 301 274 257 219 208 197 159 136 100 150 200 250 300 350 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 177. 178178178 In 2002, 85 international patent applications. In 2012, 535 international patent applications. Number of international patent applications increased by 529 % between 2002-2012. Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report
  • 178. 179179179 Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications Source: WIPO, World Intellectual Property Indicators Report 116 174 269 389 480 535 392 539 85 112 359 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 179. 180180180 Patent Applications and Registries Source: TPI 73 93 68 95 122 318 338 456 642 847 1025 414 490 685 935 1,090 1,838 2,268 2,588 3,250 4,087 4,543 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Numberofpatents) Domestic Patent Registries Domestic Patent Appliciations
  • 180. 181181181 Model Applications and Registries 376 704 678 964 1,665 2,148 1,833 2,151 2,022 1,948 2,245 914 1,206 1,479 1,896 2,424 2,972 2,949 2,842 2,994 3,175 3,725 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (NumberofModels) Model Registrations Model ApplicationsSource: TPI
  • 182. 183183183 Electricity Demand and Supply in Turkey (Billion kWh) Source: TEİAŞ 0 50 100 150 200 250 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Supply Demand 250.4 255.5