The document discusses potential futures for higher education financing in the United States. It outlines current drivers of inequality like growing wealth concentration at the top and a hollowing out of the middle class. Two potential futures are extrapolated: one where inequality continues to grow and the middle class is priced out of traditional higher education, and another where inequality is mitigated. National actions like increased public funding and campus actions around affordability and adjunct issues are proposed to shape a more equitable future.
1. Towards the future of higherTowards the future of higher
education financingeducation financing
NERCOMPNERCOMP
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December 2016December 2016
2. Plan of the sessionPlan of the session
1.1.How we pay for higherHow we pay for higher
educationeducation
2.2.Current driversCurrent drivers
3.3.FuturesFutures
3. Introductory hedgesIntroductory hedges
• My perspective: future of educationMy perspective: future of education
• Caveat1: some of the data isCaveat1: some of the data is
controversial or provisionalcontroversial or provisional
• Caveat2: serious complexityCaveat2: serious complexity
• Caveat3: narrow scope of United StatesCaveat3: narrow scope of United States
4. (Rejected titles for this talk)(Rejected titles for this talk)
"When 'middle class' is as historical a term"When 'middle class' is as historical a term
as ‘the Warsaw Pact’”as ‘the Warsaw Pact’”
"Neofeudalism, and why you are making it"Neofeudalism, and why you are making it
happen”happen”
"Downton Abbey, and you're not the lords,"Downton Abbey, and you're not the lords,
but some of your students are and will be”but some of your students are and will be”
5. 1.1.How we pay forHow we pay for
higher educationhigher education
7. 1.1. How we pay for higher educationHow we pay for higher education
• Public/private/for-profit segmentationPublic/private/for-profit segmentation
(weakening)(weakening)
• State support (budget)State support (budget)
• Federal support (loans)Federal support (loans)
• Other aidOther aid
• Tuition (THE BIGGIE)Tuition (THE BIGGIE)
8. EndowmentsEndowments
““Amherst College endowment,Amherst College endowment,
valued at $2.19 billion as of Junevalued at $2.19 billion as of June
30, 2015”30, 2015”
https://www.amherst.edu/offices/ohttps://www.amherst.edu/offices/o
ffice_of_the_chief_financial_officer/ffice_of_the_chief_financial_officer/
investmentsinvestments
9. EndowmentsEndowments
““The value of the Investment PoolThe value of the Investment Pool
as of June 30, 2016 is $2.3 billion;as of June 30, 2016 is $2.3 billion;
this amounts to over $1 million perthis amounts to over $1 million per
student at the current enrollment.”student at the current enrollment.”
http://investment.williams.edu/fileshttp://investment.williams.edu/files
/2016_Investment_Report.pdf/2016_Investment_Report.pdf
10. Tuition -> financializationTuition -> financialization
““The value of the Investment PoolThe value of the Investment Pool
as of June 30, 2016 is $2.3 billion;as of June 30, 2016 is $2.3 billion;
this amounts to over $1 million perthis amounts to over $1 million per
student at the current enrollment.”student at the current enrollment.”
12. What we pay for in higherWhat we pay for in higher
educationeducation
• Personnel costs leadPersonnel costs lead
• Some research costsSome research costs
• ““Administrative” costsAdministrative” costs
• Increasing student supportIncreasing student support
• Some campus infrastructureSome campus infrastructure
13. Why we pay this wayWhy we pay this way
• Baumol’s disease (productivityBaumol’s disease (productivity
not increasing)not increasing)
• Ethos of careEthos of care
• Amenities arms raceAmenities arms race
25. Can education keep up?Can education keep up?
Goldin and Katz,Goldin and Katz, The Race BetweenThe Race Between
Technology and EducationTechnology and Education (2010):(2010):
““[I]f the supply of skills does not[I]f the supply of skills does not
increase at the same pace as theincrease at the same pace as the
needs of technology, thenneeds of technology, then
groups whose training is notgroups whose training is not
sufficiently advanced will earnsufficiently advanced will earn
less and be relegated toless and be relegated to
devalued lines of work, anddevalued lines of work, and
inequality with respect to laborinequality with respect to labor
will increase.” (305)will increase.” (305)
31. Demographic possibilitiesDemographic possibilities
Increased state and federalIncreased state and federal
funding to Medicaid, Medicare,funding to Medicaid, Medicare,
pensions, etc.pensions, etc.
Smaller labor pool w/wageSmaller labor pool w/wage
stagnation = falling tax revenuestagnation = falling tax revenue
35. Piketty, take 1: get used to itPiketty, take 1: get used to it
Great Compression was an anomalyGreat Compression was an anomaly
““Once constituted, capital reproduces itself fasterOnce constituted, capital reproduces itself faster
than output increases. The past devours thethan output increases. The past devours the
future.” (571)future.” (571)
r>gr>g
36. Extrapolate into medium termExtrapolate into medium term
Faculty 80% adjunctFaculty 80% adjunct
(“neofeudal” campus)(“neofeudal” campus)
Focus on rich studentsFocus on rich students
Student debt > mortgagesStudent debt > mortgages
37. Extrapolate into medium termExtrapolate into medium term
F2F for the 1%F2F for the 1%
Distance learning forDistance learning for
middle classmiddle class
MOOCs for everyone elseMOOCs for everyone else
38. Extrapolate into medium termExtrapolate into medium term
Elite schools offer liberal artsElite schools offer liberal arts
educationeducation
Lack of visible tech = mark ofLack of visible tech = mark of
statusstatus
BA= mark of service qualityBA= mark of service quality
Leading majors: finance, humanLeading majors: finance, human
resources, poli sci, CS, engineresources, poli sci, CS, engine
39. Follow 1% displays closelyFollow 1% displays closely
Contributed to sharingContributed to sharing
economy by age 10economy by age 10
““Middle class” is asMiddle class” is as
historical as the Warsaw Pacthistorical as the Warsaw Pact
40. Extrapolate into medium termExtrapolate into medium term
Some mitigation by publicSome mitigation by public
servicesservices
Potential unrest stirred and/orPotential unrest stirred and/or
sapped by mediasapped by media
Populism and oligarchyPopulism and oligarchy
41. Take 2: PikettyTake 2: Piketty et alet al turn out to beturn out to be
wrongwrong
• Class mobility becomes more dynamicClass mobility becomes more dynamic
• Globalization’s pressure on wages slowsGlobalization’s pressure on wages slows
downdown
• We decide family dynamics are moreWe decide family dynamics are more
importantimportant
• Upper 1% commit to massiveUpper 1% commit to massive
philanthropy increasephilanthropy increase
42. What is to be done?What is to be done?
National actionNational action
• Increased government support forIncreased government support for
public institutionspublic institutions
• “ “ “ “ ““ “ “ “ “ LACs (i.e., COPLAC)LACs (i.e., COPLAC)
• Change K-12 fundingChange K-12 funding
• return to busingreturn to busing
43. What is to be done?What is to be done?
On campusOn campus
• Partner with K-12Partner with K-12
• Increase aid based on economicsIncrease aid based on economics
• Organize on adjunctsOrganize on adjuncts
• Nurture public intellectualsNurture public intellectuals
• Research and teach the problemResearch and teach the problem
45. 3. Peak higher education3. Peak higher education
Brian Mitchell, former president of Bucknell UniversityBrian Mitchell, former president of Bucknell University
and Washington & Jefferson Collegeand Washington & Jefferson College
https://academeblog.org/2016/07/27/higher-education-https://academeblog.org/2016/07/27/higher-education-
must-look-inward-to- improve-financial-viability/must-look-inward-to- improve-financial-viability/
49. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
Fewer, less crowded campusesFewer, less crowded campuses
Very international studentVery international student
bodybody
Low-cost programs ($10K BA)Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
50. How does this impact campuses?How does this impact campuses?
Increased remedialIncreased remedial
programsprograms
College generally seen asCollege generally seen as
job trainingjob training
51. A handful of readingsA handful of readings
Archibald and Feldman,Archibald and Feldman, Why Does College Cost So MuchWhy Does College Cost So Much??
(Oxford)(Oxford)
Cappelli,Cappelli, Will College Pay OffWill College Pay Off? (Public Affairs)? (Public Affairs)
Christensen et al,Christensen et al, Disrupting ClassDisrupting Class (McGraw-Hill)(McGraw-Hill)
DeMillo,DeMillo, Abelard To AppleAbelard To Apple (MIT)(MIT)
____,____, Revolution in Higher EducationRevolution in Higher Education (MIT)(MIT)
Massy,Massy, Reengineering the UniversityReengineering the University (Johns Hopkins)(Johns Hopkins)
McGee,McGee, BreakpointBreakpoint (JHUP)(JHUP)
52. A handful of readingsA handful of readings
NACUBO.NACUBO.
Newfield,Newfield, Unmaking the Public UniversityUnmaking the Public University (JHUP)(JHUP)
____,____, The Great MistakeThe Great Mistake (JHUP)(JHUP)
Piketty,Piketty, Capital in the 21st CenturyCapital in the 21st Century (Harvard)(Harvard)
Stevens and Kirst, eds.,Stevens and Kirst, eds., Remaking College: The ChangingRemaking College: The Changing
Ecology of Higher EducationEcology of Higher Education (Stanford)(Stanford)
Wildawsky et al, eds.,Wildawsky et al, eds., Reinventing Higher EducationReinventing Higher Education (Harvard(Harvard
Education)Education)