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Using Our Natural Gas
  and Biogas in the
 Most Intelligent Way
  for Transportation


                R. E. Falco, PhD
                    Director
    Institute for Energy Resourcefulness
Transportation is the fastest
      growing use of oil


                                                    30-22 = 8
                                           8/22 = 36 - 36% increase
                                                   in 20 years




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   2                         5/30/12
Our oil production and our
              need

                                 gulf




                                                 Alaska


                                                   Gulf
                                            On-shore



Institute for Energy Resourcefulness    3     5/30/12
THE DEMAND
         China is growing much faster than the US

                           Demand growth from
                           China is much greater than
                           from the US                                       7%

                                        Twice our carbon footprint by 2015

                             8.3% -- 2009         United          China
                             10.9% -- 2010
                                                  States



Institute for Energy Resourcefulness              4                          5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   5   5/30/12
Saudi Arabia‟s need for its own oil
                vs.
         its production




                                       2022       2038




           UK Chatham House June 2012

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness          6          5/30/12
4x cost




   Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   7   5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   8   5/30/12
Oil vs. Natural Gas Prices




Key point is that with the massive new supply
of natural gas, prices are no longer tied to oil

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   9      5/30/12
100 -120 years supply




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness
 EIA Nov 08
Three major problems



Institute for Energy Resourcefulness     11            5/30/12
$300,000
    to
$500,000
    To
  install
 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   12   5/30/12
Conversion of the vehicles
                       is expensive




                                            Storage tanks
                                              in a CNG
                                             automobile


    $5000 - $10,000 additional costs   13
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness                        5/30/12
Reduced efficiency of operation
          on CNG is forced upon us by
                economics!!!
• Too few pumps (and too few cars), because of
  very great expense, to make dedicated
  vehicles outside of depo based ones.

• Thus, will need either dual fuel vehicles which
  will get fewer miles per gge.

• Proof – after 4 decades only 140,000 of
  255,000,000 vehicles are natural gas.

 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   14    5/30/12
. The answer is to make methyl
alcohol (methanol) with natural gas,
  and run our vehicles on alcohol.
• Methanol is a liquid fuel – very inexpensive conversions or no
  added costs.
• Methanol is cheaper on an energy basis than low test gasoline.
• Range limitations are easily taken care of:
   • alcohols fuels in existing Flex Fuel vehicles get 5-8% better
     mileage.
• Fuel dispensers are of the same cost as gasoline dispensers.




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   15                     5/30/12
SAE Paper #




 “Ongoing work with methanol-and ethanol-fueled engines
at the EPA‟s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory has demonstrated improved brake thermal
efficiencies over the baseline diesel engine and low
steady state NOx, HC and CO, along with inherently low
PM emissions. In addition, the engine is expected to
have significant system cost advantages compared with
a similar diesel…”
 The engine operating with methanol fuel showed
 peak BTE of nearly 43%, and a broader high efficiency
 operating range than the baseline diesel.
                                         16

  Institute for Energy Resourcefulness                      5/30/12
Why not Ethanol?
 Henry Ford made the Model T both alcohol and gasoline
              compatible for 2 decades.




Until (Rockefeller supported) Prohibition
 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   17          5/30/12
Why not Ethanol?
                                                              US Government
                                                                 showing
                                                            Ethanol production
                                                                  growth



                                                    2005
  36
billion                                                             Toyota
                                                                   Showing
gallons                                                             Ethanol
  By                                                                shortfall
 2022                                                             from gov‟t
                                                                   regulated
                                                                amounts (green)
                              2010      2020   18    2030
 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness                                    5/30/12
Why not Ethanol?
The Biomass limit:
The biomass limit exists for the supply of energy to the
transport sector which globally is between 20 and
30% at current usage levels, and is much lower
for developed countries with high population ensities.

This was calculated at 2006 usage levels.
As noted in an earlier slide:




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   19              5/30/12
Typical water usage for syngas




Solar Methanol will use no water
                                         20
  Institute for Energy Resourcefulness                                5/30/12
Emissions from growing
                 biofuels
        “The impact of these emissions can be
        expressed in terms of „carbon payback time‟. The
        time required to produce a net benefit from biofuel
        production chains can vary from 17 years for
        bioethanol from sugar cane feed stock grown on
        cleared Brazilian cerrado woodland, to over 400
        years for biodiesel produced from palm oil,
        grown on drained Indonesian peat forest.”
                                             Pearson et al 2009

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   21                         5/30/12
• 100-120 years supply of natural gas
  • No competition with food
  • No water use issues
  • Cheaper to make than gasoline
  • Runs the car better, can better
    diesel efficiency
  • Lower CO2,
          • CO2 neutral if bio methanol,
          • and lower yet if solar methanol.
  • Methanol can be made renewably

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   22      5/30/12
Experience with Methanol

                                       In California




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness          23       5/30/12
Safety


                                                      GASOLINE


           METHANOL




• In the California test (15 years), with over 200 million miles of methanol
driving, there was not a single case of accidental methanol poisoning.

• For M100 a 90% reduction in fuel related automotive fires is projected.
                      P. A. Machiele, Summary Of The Fire Safety Impacts of Methanol
                      as a Transportation Fuel, SAE International paper 901113
EPA Brake Thermal Efficiency Comparison

   engine fueled on 100%                     same engine run in its
         methanol                           native diesel mode (1.9L
   in spark ignition mode                        VW TDI diesel)

                                                      39%
                     42%




    Typical 1.9L gasoline engine has 22-25% BTE
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   25                         5/30/12
Is alcohol fuel any fun
                        to drive on?
      The Koenigsegg CCXR, a version of
      theCCX converted to use E85 or E100, as
      well as standard 98 octane gasoline, is
      currently the fastest and most powerful
      flexible fuel vehicle.

      Its twin supercharged V8 produces
      1018 hp when running on biofuel, as
      compared to 806 hp on 91 octane
      unleaded gasoline.
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   26       5/30/12
Bromberg, L. and Cohn, D., "Alcohol Fueled Heavy Duty Vehicles
                                       Using Clean, High Efficiency Engines,”

                                       SAE Technical Paper 2010-01-2199, 2010, doi:10.4271/2010-01-2199.
                                       Author(s): Leslie Bromberg - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
                                       Daniel Cohn - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness                    27                                        5/30/12
What Can This Mean
                for Fleet Economics?
         Reduce engine system (engine plus exhaust
                treatment) cost by $10,000 - $15,000.
                 The engines cost less (Diesels are more expensive)
                 No need for DPF and Urea Filters (NOx)

         Reduced maintenance

         Fuel costs less

         Better mileage – up to 5% better fuel economy


Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   28                       5/30/12
 Methanex, the worlds largest methanol
                producer sells methanol for $1.34 per gal

         Natural gas at the wellhead costs $0.306/gge
                (gas gallon equivalent).

         Thus, methanol is 4.38 x value of natural gas

         Thus, large natural gas companies, such as
                ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, etc., can much
                more significantly monetize their assets.

                            And it is still cheaper than gasoline.
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness          29                     5/30/12
Why Methanol?

                Contract pricing is
       substantially less than market prices.




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   30        5/30/12
Let‟s look at the Carbon Dioxide Emissions
       from methanol fuel production




                                            renewables




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   31                5/30/12
Further costs of converting to 100% methanol
                    $30-$100
                                            Lotus May 2012

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   32                    5/30/12
There is an easy path
         Both the MIT Engine Lab and Lotus
                engineering have a scientifically prescribed
                path to easy introduction of methanol into
                the fuelling picture.

         The path utilizes the availability of Flex
                Fueled vehicles.

         There are over 11,000,000 in the US

         All new vehicles purchased by Los Alamos
                County are Flex Fuel Capable.

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   33                      5/30/12
Lotus Engineering Research
Four factors to „fool‟ the driver, the sensors and the regulators




   Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   34             5/30/12
Lotus Engineering Research
            for existing E85 vehicles




 40%G 10%E 50%M
                       35         Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   5/30/12
                                        For a 9.7:1 air fuel ratio
G = $ 3.11
             % methanol




 G = $3.73
President Barack Obama's May 2011
        memorandum to improve fleet
     management practices and improve
     fuel efficiency, stipulates moving the
               federal government
    to 100-percent alternative-fuel vehicle
                purchases by 2015.
           If the “Open Fuels Act” passes
      congress, they will all be 3-flex -- ethanol,
                methanol and gasoline.
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   38             5/30/12
A Way Forward for Economical
Environmentally Responsible Transportation
       Policy in Los Alamos County
 • Buy methanol on open market and establish the use of GEM mixtures
   in an E-85 vehicle
     • consulting from Lotus or MIT
 • Run test fleet on GEM (G40-E10-M50)
     • Mix locally at airport pumping station?
     • Buy methanol on open market
 • Expand fleet using GEM mixture.
     • Contract from long term methanol price.
 • Buy all new vehicles with capability of 100% methanol usage (Open
   Fuels Act)
 • Plan generation of renewable methanol from LA landfill gas emissions
     • Apply for Federal Production Tax Credit
 • Plumb landfill
 • Use classical gasifiers to make methanol from landfill gas
 • Add solar gasifiers to make additional methanol, gain 30% in
   available energy, and utilize all of the CO2 emitted. Now totally
   green.
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   39                         5/30/12
The renewable methanol
             process
         Los Alamos Landfill




                     Maximum theoretical efficiency = 1.3*.85 = 1.10%

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness        40                          5/30/12
Conclusions
          Transportation costs can be reduced, with
                minimum transition costs by using
                gasoline, ethanol methanol (GEM) blends in
                existing E85 vehicles.
          Future vehicles can be less expensive to
                purchase, as well as operate if run on GEM
                mixtures.
          We can eventually use the output from the LA
                landfill to make methanol.
          Longer term we can combine solar reforming of
                the landfill gas with classical gasifiers to make
                methanol fuel that is WTW carbon neutral.

Institute for Energy Resourcefulness        41                      5/30/12
Bottom Line Recommendations




Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   42   5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   43   5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   44   5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   45   5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   46   5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   47   5/30/12
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   48   5/30/12
Volumetric vs. gravimetric energy density




                    We have only three choices left
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness   49             5/30/12

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Why methanol is the economic green vehicle fuel

  • 1. Using Our Natural Gas and Biogas in the Most Intelligent Way for Transportation R. E. Falco, PhD Director Institute for Energy Resourcefulness
  • 2. Transportation is the fastest growing use of oil 30-22 = 8 8/22 = 36 - 36% increase in 20 years Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 2 5/30/12
  • 3. Our oil production and our need gulf Alaska Gulf On-shore Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 3 5/30/12
  • 4. THE DEMAND China is growing much faster than the US Demand growth from China is much greater than from the US 7% Twice our carbon footprint by 2015 8.3% -- 2009 United China 10.9% -- 2010 States Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 4 5/30/12
  • 5. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5 5/30/12
  • 6. Saudi Arabia‟s need for its own oil vs. its production 2022 2038 UK Chatham House June 2012 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 6 5/30/12
  • 7. 4x cost Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 7 5/30/12
  • 8. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 8 5/30/12
  • 9. Oil vs. Natural Gas Prices Key point is that with the massive new supply of natural gas, prices are no longer tied to oil Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 9 5/30/12
  • 10. 100 -120 years supply Institute for Energy Resourcefulness EIA Nov 08
  • 11. Three major problems Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 11 5/30/12
  • 12. $300,000 to $500,000 To install Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 12 5/30/12
  • 13. Conversion of the vehicles is expensive Storage tanks in a CNG automobile $5000 - $10,000 additional costs 13 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5/30/12
  • 14. Reduced efficiency of operation on CNG is forced upon us by economics!!! • Too few pumps (and too few cars), because of very great expense, to make dedicated vehicles outside of depo based ones. • Thus, will need either dual fuel vehicles which will get fewer miles per gge. • Proof – after 4 decades only 140,000 of 255,000,000 vehicles are natural gas. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 14 5/30/12
  • 15. . The answer is to make methyl alcohol (methanol) with natural gas, and run our vehicles on alcohol. • Methanol is a liquid fuel – very inexpensive conversions or no added costs. • Methanol is cheaper on an energy basis than low test gasoline. • Range limitations are easily taken care of: • alcohols fuels in existing Flex Fuel vehicles get 5-8% better mileage. • Fuel dispensers are of the same cost as gasoline dispensers. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 15 5/30/12
  • 16. SAE Paper # “Ongoing work with methanol-and ethanol-fueled engines at the EPA‟s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions Laboratory has demonstrated improved brake thermal efficiencies over the baseline diesel engine and low steady state NOx, HC and CO, along with inherently low PM emissions. In addition, the engine is expected to have significant system cost advantages compared with a similar diesel…” The engine operating with methanol fuel showed peak BTE of nearly 43%, and a broader high efficiency operating range than the baseline diesel. 16 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5/30/12
  • 17. Why not Ethanol? Henry Ford made the Model T both alcohol and gasoline compatible for 2 decades. Until (Rockefeller supported) Prohibition Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 17 5/30/12
  • 18. Why not Ethanol? US Government showing Ethanol production growth 2005 36 billion Toyota Showing gallons Ethanol By shortfall 2022 from gov‟t regulated amounts (green) 2010 2020 18 2030 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5/30/12
  • 19. Why not Ethanol? The Biomass limit: The biomass limit exists for the supply of energy to the transport sector which globally is between 20 and 30% at current usage levels, and is much lower for developed countries with high population ensities. This was calculated at 2006 usage levels. As noted in an earlier slide: Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 19 5/30/12
  • 20. Typical water usage for syngas Solar Methanol will use no water 20 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5/30/12
  • 21. Emissions from growing biofuels “The impact of these emissions can be expressed in terms of „carbon payback time‟. The time required to produce a net benefit from biofuel production chains can vary from 17 years for bioethanol from sugar cane feed stock grown on cleared Brazilian cerrado woodland, to over 400 years for biodiesel produced from palm oil, grown on drained Indonesian peat forest.” Pearson et al 2009 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 21 5/30/12
  • 22. • 100-120 years supply of natural gas • No competition with food • No water use issues • Cheaper to make than gasoline • Runs the car better, can better diesel efficiency • Lower CO2, • CO2 neutral if bio methanol, • and lower yet if solar methanol. • Methanol can be made renewably Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 22 5/30/12
  • 23. Experience with Methanol In California Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 23 5/30/12
  • 24. Safety GASOLINE METHANOL • In the California test (15 years), with over 200 million miles of methanol driving, there was not a single case of accidental methanol poisoning. • For M100 a 90% reduction in fuel related automotive fires is projected. P. A. Machiele, Summary Of The Fire Safety Impacts of Methanol as a Transportation Fuel, SAE International paper 901113
  • 25. EPA Brake Thermal Efficiency Comparison engine fueled on 100% same engine run in its methanol native diesel mode (1.9L in spark ignition mode VW TDI diesel) 39% 42% Typical 1.9L gasoline engine has 22-25% BTE Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 25 5/30/12
  • 26. Is alcohol fuel any fun to drive on? The Koenigsegg CCXR, a version of theCCX converted to use E85 or E100, as well as standard 98 octane gasoline, is currently the fastest and most powerful flexible fuel vehicle. Its twin supercharged V8 produces 1018 hp when running on biofuel, as compared to 806 hp on 91 octane unleaded gasoline. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 26 5/30/12
  • 27. Bromberg, L. and Cohn, D., "Alcohol Fueled Heavy Duty Vehicles Using Clean, High Efficiency Engines,” SAE Technical Paper 2010-01-2199, 2010, doi:10.4271/2010-01-2199. Author(s): Leslie Bromberg - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Daniel Cohn - Massachusetts Institute of Technology Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 27 5/30/12
  • 28. What Can This Mean for Fleet Economics?  Reduce engine system (engine plus exhaust treatment) cost by $10,000 - $15,000.  The engines cost less (Diesels are more expensive)  No need for DPF and Urea Filters (NOx)  Reduced maintenance  Fuel costs less  Better mileage – up to 5% better fuel economy Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 28 5/30/12
  • 29.  Methanex, the worlds largest methanol producer sells methanol for $1.34 per gal  Natural gas at the wellhead costs $0.306/gge (gas gallon equivalent).  Thus, methanol is 4.38 x value of natural gas  Thus, large natural gas companies, such as ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, etc., can much more significantly monetize their assets. And it is still cheaper than gasoline. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 29 5/30/12
  • 30. Why Methanol? Contract pricing is substantially less than market prices. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 30 5/30/12
  • 31. Let‟s look at the Carbon Dioxide Emissions from methanol fuel production renewables Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 31 5/30/12
  • 32. Further costs of converting to 100% methanol $30-$100 Lotus May 2012 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 32 5/30/12
  • 33. There is an easy path  Both the MIT Engine Lab and Lotus engineering have a scientifically prescribed path to easy introduction of methanol into the fuelling picture.  The path utilizes the availability of Flex Fueled vehicles.  There are over 11,000,000 in the US  All new vehicles purchased by Los Alamos County are Flex Fuel Capable. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 33 5/30/12
  • 34. Lotus Engineering Research Four factors to „fool‟ the driver, the sensors and the regulators Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 34 5/30/12
  • 35. Lotus Engineering Research for existing E85 vehicles 40%G 10%E 50%M 35 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5/30/12 For a 9.7:1 air fuel ratio
  • 36. G = $ 3.11 % methanol G = $3.73
  • 37.
  • 38. President Barack Obama's May 2011 memorandum to improve fleet management practices and improve fuel efficiency, stipulates moving the federal government to 100-percent alternative-fuel vehicle purchases by 2015. If the “Open Fuels Act” passes congress, they will all be 3-flex -- ethanol, methanol and gasoline. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 38 5/30/12
  • 39. A Way Forward for Economical Environmentally Responsible Transportation Policy in Los Alamos County • Buy methanol on open market and establish the use of GEM mixtures in an E-85 vehicle • consulting from Lotus or MIT • Run test fleet on GEM (G40-E10-M50) • Mix locally at airport pumping station? • Buy methanol on open market • Expand fleet using GEM mixture. • Contract from long term methanol price. • Buy all new vehicles with capability of 100% methanol usage (Open Fuels Act) • Plan generation of renewable methanol from LA landfill gas emissions • Apply for Federal Production Tax Credit • Plumb landfill • Use classical gasifiers to make methanol from landfill gas • Add solar gasifiers to make additional methanol, gain 30% in available energy, and utilize all of the CO2 emitted. Now totally green. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 39 5/30/12
  • 40. The renewable methanol process Los Alamos Landfill Maximum theoretical efficiency = 1.3*.85 = 1.10% Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 40 5/30/12
  • 41. Conclusions  Transportation costs can be reduced, with minimum transition costs by using gasoline, ethanol methanol (GEM) blends in existing E85 vehicles.  Future vehicles can be less expensive to purchase, as well as operate if run on GEM mixtures.  We can eventually use the output from the LA landfill to make methanol.  Longer term we can combine solar reforming of the landfill gas with classical gasifiers to make methanol fuel that is WTW carbon neutral. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 41 5/30/12
  • 42. Bottom Line Recommendations Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 42 5/30/12
  • 43. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 43 5/30/12
  • 44. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 44 5/30/12
  • 45. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 45 5/30/12
  • 46. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 46 5/30/12
  • 47. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 47 5/30/12
  • 48. Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 48 5/30/12
  • 49. Volumetric vs. gravimetric energy density We have only three choices left Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 49 5/30/12

Editor's Notes

  1. Goldman Saks 22 April 09 8.3% 2009 and 10.9% 20101.32 billion vs 300,000,000 = 4.3x Chapter 1. The long and short of supply and demand - DemandThe demand picture has changed greatly in the last few years. The curve shows the US demand versus that of China. Focusing on the US growth we can see it has been essentially linear (light blue curve fit) over a century. This includes the great depression and two world wars, so we can project it over the next 20 years with confidence.The rapid growth of China clearly shows that we can’t ignore it. It is growing non-linearly, and its rate cant be accurately predicted based on its past history. Thus, we conservatively assume linear growth at 7%.(It should be noted that China grew at 12% last year and is predicted to grow at 8.5% this year. China has already surpassed the US in total carbon usage, and will be using 2 times our consumption in the next fourteen years (at the projected growth rate of 7%). Usage = (1.05)^14 = 1.98 (2 times). Five percent is the difference in China vs the US growth rate. In 20 years (the period this presentation focuses on) China will be using 2.65 times the energy we use.INDIA’s increasing at 5-7%/year ( CHINA 5-7%/year)Has a ten year plan of 10% growth rateSo world’s economy is facing two simultaneous challenges: The end of cheap and easy oil and the explosive demand for fuel in developing countries.Demand for carbon has already exceeded that of the US.
  2. Saudi’s use 25% now and if usage grows at same rate, by 2038 they will need to import oil if output remains constant.
  3. January of 2009 natural gas prices decoupled from oil
  4. Light Pink are gas basinsOrange are gas shales
  5. 24 / 7 CNG self serve pump for cars on the UCLA campus3600 psi
  6. Range is still limited
  7. 14] Bandi, A., and Specht, M., ‘Renewable carbon-basedtransportation fuels’. In ‘Landolt-Bornstein’, EnergyTechnologies, Subvolume C: Renewable Energy, VIII/3C,pp. 441-482, Springer, Berlin 2006. ISBN 978-3-540-42962-3.
  8. Drucker
  9. Methanol is 3x NG and is 60% ethanol