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Why methanol is the economic green vehicle fuel
1. Using Our Natural Gas
and Biogas in the
Most Intelligent Way
for Transportation
R. E. Falco, PhD
Director
Institute for Energy Resourcefulness
2. Transportation is the fastest
growing use of oil
30-22 = 8
8/22 = 36 - 36% increase
in 20 years
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3. Our oil production and our
need
gulf
Alaska
Gulf
On-shore
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4. THE DEMAND
China is growing much faster than the US
Demand growth from
China is much greater than
from the US 7%
Twice our carbon footprint by 2015
8.3% -- 2009 United China
10.9% -- 2010
States
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9. Oil vs. Natural Gas Prices
Key point is that with the massive new supply
of natural gas, prices are no longer tied to oil
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10. 100 -120 years supply
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EIA Nov 08
12. $300,000
to
$500,000
To
install
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13. Conversion of the vehicles
is expensive
Storage tanks
in a CNG
automobile
$5000 - $10,000 additional costs 13
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14. Reduced efficiency of operation
on CNG is forced upon us by
economics!!!
• Too few pumps (and too few cars), because of
very great expense, to make dedicated
vehicles outside of depo based ones.
• Thus, will need either dual fuel vehicles which
will get fewer miles per gge.
• Proof – after 4 decades only 140,000 of
255,000,000 vehicles are natural gas.
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15. . The answer is to make methyl
alcohol (methanol) with natural gas,
and run our vehicles on alcohol.
• Methanol is a liquid fuel – very inexpensive conversions or no
added costs.
• Methanol is cheaper on an energy basis than low test gasoline.
• Range limitations are easily taken care of:
• alcohols fuels in existing Flex Fuel vehicles get 5-8% better
mileage.
• Fuel dispensers are of the same cost as gasoline dispensers.
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16. SAE Paper #
“Ongoing work with methanol-and ethanol-fueled engines
at the EPA‟s National Vehicle and Fuel Emissions
Laboratory has demonstrated improved brake thermal
efficiencies over the baseline diesel engine and low
steady state NOx, HC and CO, along with inherently low
PM emissions. In addition, the engine is expected to
have significant system cost advantages compared with
a similar diesel…”
The engine operating with methanol fuel showed
peak BTE of nearly 43%, and a broader high efficiency
operating range than the baseline diesel.
16
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17. Why not Ethanol?
Henry Ford made the Model T both alcohol and gasoline
compatible for 2 decades.
Until (Rockefeller supported) Prohibition
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18. Why not Ethanol?
US Government
showing
Ethanol production
growth
2005
36
billion Toyota
Showing
gallons Ethanol
By shortfall
2022 from gov‟t
regulated
amounts (green)
2010 2020 18 2030
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19. Why not Ethanol?
The Biomass limit:
The biomass limit exists for the supply of energy to the
transport sector which globally is between 20 and
30% at current usage levels, and is much lower
for developed countries with high population ensities.
This was calculated at 2006 usage levels.
As noted in an earlier slide:
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20. Typical water usage for syngas
Solar Methanol will use no water
20
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21. Emissions from growing
biofuels
“The impact of these emissions can be
expressed in terms of „carbon payback time‟. The
time required to produce a net benefit from biofuel
production chains can vary from 17 years for
bioethanol from sugar cane feed stock grown on
cleared Brazilian cerrado woodland, to over 400
years for biodiesel produced from palm oil,
grown on drained Indonesian peat forest.”
Pearson et al 2009
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22. • 100-120 years supply of natural gas
• No competition with food
• No water use issues
• Cheaper to make than gasoline
• Runs the car better, can better
diesel efficiency
• Lower CO2,
• CO2 neutral if bio methanol,
• and lower yet if solar methanol.
• Methanol can be made renewably
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24. Safety
GASOLINE
METHANOL
• In the California test (15 years), with over 200 million miles of methanol
driving, there was not a single case of accidental methanol poisoning.
• For M100 a 90% reduction in fuel related automotive fires is projected.
P. A. Machiele, Summary Of The Fire Safety Impacts of Methanol
as a Transportation Fuel, SAE International paper 901113
25. EPA Brake Thermal Efficiency Comparison
engine fueled on 100% same engine run in its
methanol native diesel mode (1.9L
in spark ignition mode VW TDI diesel)
39%
42%
Typical 1.9L gasoline engine has 22-25% BTE
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26. Is alcohol fuel any fun
to drive on?
The Koenigsegg CCXR, a version of
theCCX converted to use E85 or E100, as
well as standard 98 octane gasoline, is
currently the fastest and most powerful
flexible fuel vehicle.
Its twin supercharged V8 produces
1018 hp when running on biofuel, as
compared to 806 hp on 91 octane
unleaded gasoline.
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27. Bromberg, L. and Cohn, D., "Alcohol Fueled Heavy Duty Vehicles
Using Clean, High Efficiency Engines,”
SAE Technical Paper 2010-01-2199, 2010, doi:10.4271/2010-01-2199.
Author(s): Leslie Bromberg - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Daniel Cohn - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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28. What Can This Mean
for Fleet Economics?
Reduce engine system (engine plus exhaust
treatment) cost by $10,000 - $15,000.
The engines cost less (Diesels are more expensive)
No need for DPF and Urea Filters (NOx)
Reduced maintenance
Fuel costs less
Better mileage – up to 5% better fuel economy
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29. Methanex, the worlds largest methanol
producer sells methanol for $1.34 per gal
Natural gas at the wellhead costs $0.306/gge
(gas gallon equivalent).
Thus, methanol is 4.38 x value of natural gas
Thus, large natural gas companies, such as
ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Chevron, etc., can much
more significantly monetize their assets.
And it is still cheaper than gasoline.
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30. Why Methanol?
Contract pricing is
substantially less than market prices.
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31. Let‟s look at the Carbon Dioxide Emissions
from methanol fuel production
renewables
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32. Further costs of converting to 100% methanol
$30-$100
Lotus May 2012
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33. There is an easy path
Both the MIT Engine Lab and Lotus
engineering have a scientifically prescribed
path to easy introduction of methanol into
the fuelling picture.
The path utilizes the availability of Flex
Fueled vehicles.
There are over 11,000,000 in the US
All new vehicles purchased by Los Alamos
County are Flex Fuel Capable.
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34. Lotus Engineering Research
Four factors to „fool‟ the driver, the sensors and the regulators
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35. Lotus Engineering Research
for existing E85 vehicles
40%G 10%E 50%M
35 Institute for Energy Resourcefulness 5/30/12
For a 9.7:1 air fuel ratio
38. President Barack Obama's May 2011
memorandum to improve fleet
management practices and improve
fuel efficiency, stipulates moving the
federal government
to 100-percent alternative-fuel vehicle
purchases by 2015.
If the “Open Fuels Act” passes
congress, they will all be 3-flex -- ethanol,
methanol and gasoline.
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39. A Way Forward for Economical
Environmentally Responsible Transportation
Policy in Los Alamos County
• Buy methanol on open market and establish the use of GEM mixtures
in an E-85 vehicle
• consulting from Lotus or MIT
• Run test fleet on GEM (G40-E10-M50)
• Mix locally at airport pumping station?
• Buy methanol on open market
• Expand fleet using GEM mixture.
• Contract from long term methanol price.
• Buy all new vehicles with capability of 100% methanol usage (Open
Fuels Act)
• Plan generation of renewable methanol from LA landfill gas emissions
• Apply for Federal Production Tax Credit
• Plumb landfill
• Use classical gasifiers to make methanol from landfill gas
• Add solar gasifiers to make additional methanol, gain 30% in
available energy, and utilize all of the CO2 emitted. Now totally
green.
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40. The renewable methanol
process
Los Alamos Landfill
Maximum theoretical efficiency = 1.3*.85 = 1.10%
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41. Conclusions
Transportation costs can be reduced, with
minimum transition costs by using
gasoline, ethanol methanol (GEM) blends in
existing E85 vehicles.
Future vehicles can be less expensive to
purchase, as well as operate if run on GEM
mixtures.
We can eventually use the output from the LA
landfill to make methanol.
Longer term we can combine solar reforming of
the landfill gas with classical gasifiers to make
methanol fuel that is WTW carbon neutral.
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49. Volumetric vs. gravimetric energy density
We have only three choices left
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Editor's Notes
Goldman Saks 22 April 09 8.3% 2009 and 10.9% 20101.32 billion vs 300,000,000 = 4.3x Chapter 1. The long and short of supply and demand - DemandThe demand picture has changed greatly in the last few years. The curve shows the US demand versus that of China. Focusing on the US growth we can see it has been essentially linear (light blue curve fit) over a century. This includes the great depression and two world wars, so we can project it over the next 20 years with confidence.The rapid growth of China clearly shows that we can’t ignore it. It is growing non-linearly, and its rate cant be accurately predicted based on its past history. Thus, we conservatively assume linear growth at 7%.(It should be noted that China grew at 12% last year and is predicted to grow at 8.5% this year. China has already surpassed the US in total carbon usage, and will be using 2 times our consumption in the next fourteen years (at the projected growth rate of 7%). Usage = (1.05)^14 = 1.98 (2 times). Five percent is the difference in China vs the US growth rate. In 20 years (the period this presentation focuses on) China will be using 2.65 times the energy we use.INDIA’s increasing at 5-7%/year ( CHINA 5-7%/year)Has a ten year plan of 10% growth rateSo world’s economy is facing two simultaneous challenges: The end of cheap and easy oil and the explosive demand for fuel in developing countries.Demand for carbon has already exceeded that of the US.
Saudi’s use 25% now and if usage grows at same rate, by 2038 they will need to import oil if output remains constant.
January of 2009 natural gas prices decoupled from oil
Light Pink are gas basinsOrange are gas shales
24 / 7 CNG self serve pump for cars on the UCLA campus3600 psi
Range is still limited
14] Bandi, A., and Specht, M., ‘Renewable carbon-basedtransportation fuels’. In ‘Landolt-Bornstein’, EnergyTechnologies, Subvolume C: Renewable Energy, VIII/3C,pp. 441-482, Springer, Berlin 2006. ISBN 978-3-540-42962-3.