Discussion Topic 4 Introduction: Biofuels and Food Price Volatility

1. 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan 80 Jan 85 Jan 90 Jan 95 Jan 2000 Jan 05 Jan 10
Crude oil
All commodities
Food commodities
Index: January 2002 = 100
Non-food commodity prices rose more than those for
food in the 2008 crisis, relative to 2002
Source: Ron Trostle, ERS; based on International Monetary Fund: International Financial Statistics, Jan 2012p

2. World Commodity Prices
Visualizing
relationships
among price
indices for
different
commodities
and short
term trends
can be
sensitive to
the year
chosen to
serve as
baseline
(100)

3. Chart: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/detail.aspx?chartId=41700&ref=collection&embed=True&widgetId=39734
Grain commodity price volatility is different from
food price volatility (US Consumer Food Price Index, CPI) 1976-2012

4. FAO Low-Income, Food-Deficit
Countries price indices for staples

5. Food Price Index of Selected African Countries
during 2007-08 “food price crisis”
Visualizing
relationships
among price
indices for
different
commodities
and short
term trends
can be
sensitive to
the year
chosen to
serve as
baseline (100)

6. FAO global food price
index: Averages prices
for 5 groups (meat,
dairy, cereals,
vegetable oils, sugar)
weighted by export
shares. Index reflects
average prices of
internationally traded
commodities, not the
changes in prices for
local staples in food-
insecure regions.
• I
FAO Food Outlook October 2014

7. FAO Food Outlook October 2014

9. FAO Food Outlook October 2014

10. Shipping costs can also be volatile

15. Sudden increases in prices make food less
affordable for non-producers such as urban poor
but may improve livelihoods in rural economies that
depend on agriculture. Sudden declines in prices
undermine investment in local food production and
supply chains. Price crashes also catalyze rural to
urban migration and increase rural poverty and
food insecurity.
-What is role of bioenergy in food price declines?
- Can biofuel policies lea do more stable and
predictable food prices that create incentives for
local investment in food production are desirable
for enhanced food security.

16. David Laborde, IFPRI (http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/david-laborde-
debucquet): Brief on Food Price Volatility Indices for Less Developed
Nations.
Bruce Babcock, Iowa State University
(http://www.card.iastate.edu/facstaff/profile.aspx?id=13):
“Impact of US Ethanol Production on Price Volatility”
Harriet Mugera/Christopher Gilbert, Trento University, Italy:
“Structural change in the relationship between energy and food
prices” (consider the dynamic relationships among oil prices, grain
commodity prices, biofuel policies, and food price volatility).