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COVID-19: Beyond the Curve
Investment Response
11th May 2020
Journey to the new ‘normal’
The impact on the economy, services, consumption and infrastructure as a result of the COVID-19
pandemic, both globally and in Australia, is far reaching. This is the case not only now, but going
forward, influencing the way we live and consume into the future. Now, tomorrow as well as later;
once we settle beyond the curve in what will be the new ‘normal’.
We will use the behavioural themes dentsu intelligence’s though leadership piece ‘Beyond the
Curve: Life after Coronavirus in Australia’ to investigate how media consumption, and subsequently
media investment, will be transformed by post COVID-19 crisis.
Over the coming weeks, Amplifi will focus on
the distinct roles COVID-19 will take in shaping
our future, with a media investment lens:
1. As an ACCELERATOR of change
with immediate shifts in media
consumption behaviours
2. As a RE-EVALUATOR of priorities, attitudes
and behaviours
3. As a DISRUPTOR of progress and growth –
potentially moving us backward in order to
go forward in a different direction
We will look at what we can do to be ready for tomorrow and the new ‘normal’, to help our clients
build robust strategies and implementation plans to ensure that their brands come out stronger on
the other side.
1. PEST analysis Click here
2. The three pivotal roles of COVID-19 Click here
3. Brand opportunity Click here
4. Brand opportunity: media consumption shift Click here
5. Brand opportunity: investment guidance Click here
6. Virtual = personal Click here
7. Virtual = personal: media consumption shift Click here
8. Virtual = personal: investment guidance Click here
9. Datafication Click here
10. Datafication: media consumption shift Click here
11. Datafication: investment guidance Click here
12. Workforce transformation Click here
13. Workforce transformation: media consumption shift Click here
14. Workforce transformation: investment guidance Click here
Contents
COVID-19: the world’s largest shared experience
PEST analysis
Political Economic Social Technology Other
State of Emergency declared
in most countries
Slow government response in
some markets, including
blame games and more
worried about political image
than taking action
Global impact and a change
to trade as a result of
affected supply chains
(border closures)
Concerns about a global
economic downturn – stock
markets are taking significant
hits
Lockdown and social
distancing measures
impacting businesses,
workforces and cashflow
Fear and panic – an invisible
‘enemy’ that is affecting
people seemingly
indiscriminately, with no cure
Lockdown and social
distancing measure, as well as
fear, lead to social isolation
Office workers still employed
mostly working from home
WFH and social distancing
measures has accelerated
use of technology and data
NBN and other technologies
have mostly held up under
the increased load – creating
a likely sustained shift in usage
COVID-19 has impacted the
entire world in an
unprecedented way and
across all PEST factors, with no
immediate end in sight which
affects the way people
consume (media) and
behave
And the three pivotal roles it will play for the
future
The three pivotal roles of COVID-19
What impact will each have on
media consumption and
investment?
THE ACCELERATOR
Hitting fast forward on trends
like e-commerce, distributed
workforces and virtual
experiences
THE RE-EVALUATOR
Australians will re-evaluate
their choices, priorities,
attitudes and perspectives
– challenging the
assumptions of yesterday
THE DISRUPTOR
Changing the trajectory of
progress, and in some cases
redirecting the way forward
The new
“normal"
Today Tomorrow
Brand opportunity
▪ Throughout advertising history, brands that have maintained or increased ‘brand’ advertising spend in times of
downturn have been able to increase market share as competitors pulled back (or out), and build brand
equity
▪ For brands to go dark during these times, the risk is two-fold: negatively impact market share and depreciate
brand value; face significant increase in both cost and effort to rebuild share and brand equity in an improved
economy
▪ A softer market as a result of the pandemic has accelerated opportunities for brands to take a category
leadership position, take advantage of greater efficiencies to remain in-market and extract greater value from
their campaigns
Brand opportunity
Brand opportunity: media consumption shift
During social distancing, time spent consuming linear TV hit levels not seen for several years, whilst BVOD and live
streaming reached unprecedented levels – leading to a rise in available inventory not met by demand.
As Australian’s start to feel less anxious about the COVID-19 situation, there’s been a shift towards positive, uplifting
and aspirational content (think: Masterchef, Lego Masters, Have You Been Paying Attention?). The lounge room has
been used as a shared experience to reconnect with family
The pandemic has highlighted just how important it is to consumers that they genuinely trust the sources of content
they are consuming
The uplift in time spent with devices has accelerated consumers’ perceived ‘need’ for instant gratification in the
form of sourcing information. But once they find you, there needs to be a value exchange – because now,
consumers are even more single-minded in what they want you to help them do
Social distancing means that, for the foreseeable future, cinemas have ceased to exist. This is further complicated by
a halt in production – when cinemas do fully reopen, we will likely see a limited selection of titles in the interim
Brand opportunity: media consumption
Brand opportunity: investment guidance
Budget invested in screen agnostic Brand campaigns in the current climate will not only build long term brand
equity (and efficiencies versus ‘going dark’ now), but also gives us the ability to extract greater campaign value (not
necessarily savings or discounts)
It is anticipated that the current imbalance between supply and demand will reverse during Q3 and Q4 – planning
now and booking early will assist in offsetting this
Leverage the resurgence of the shared viewing experience - consider the types of programs that are the tentpoles
of you campaigns
Brand safety is paramount, now more than ever – there is little value in investing in your brand if it's seen alongside
questionable content. Actively monitor and review block rates and brand safety performance against non-brand
suitable content or keywords
Ensuring synergies across channel selection for brand campaigns is key – if anything the expectation to be able to
find out about your brand now, following a trigger in another channel, has increased
The impact on film production means that cinema will likely not be viable as the premium ‘big screen’ experience
for brand campaigns for some time yet
Brand opportunity: investment guidance
Virtual = personal
▪ Time spent on social and streaming platforms has been building over the last few years – social distancing
measures have simply accelerated usage and adoption of new platforms
▪ COVID-19 has brought with it numerous opportunities for us to come together from a distance, and they’re
here to stay
▪ We’ve also seen accelerated acceptance of virtual experiences – from museums, galleries and tourism,
through to professional sporting codes developing e-sports competitions, with fans coming along for the ride
▪ This gives rise to a new form of one-to-one communication – personalised virtual experiences
Virtual = personal
Virtual = personal: media consumption shift
COVID-19 will force Australian’s for reassess the role of social media in their lives, and has accelerated growth of
opportunities for people to come together from a distance
Growth of platforms like Tik Tok, Zoom and Houseparty has also evolved usage – from home-schooling to virtual dating
to learning new things – and has seen a resurgence in formats such as Instagram Live
We have seen ‘live’ experiences go ‘virtual’ – from tourism, galleries, museums and zoos - all been engaging
audiences during this time with immersive virtual experiences
Sporting codes are delivering virtualisation via e-sports, which has seen increased uptake of platforms like Twitch, and
deeper engagement between professional athletes, gamers and fans which will likely continue into the post-CV-19
future
The capability for virtual education has been highlighted and brought to the fore as a viable option – from simple
things like learning a recipe or how to make a cocktail, through to tertiary qualifications
Whilst we saw an increase in magazine subscriptions and newspaper purchasing behaviour in the initial stages of
lockdown, the temporary lowering of paywalls has given consumers a taste of digital news and lifestyle content – and
we anticipate that digital platforms will revert to diminishing print readership
Virtual = personal: media consumption
Virtual = personal: investment guidance
This increased ‘mainstream’ adoption of new and existing social platforms means that there has also been a shift in
demographic for each
Increased consumption of content via these platforms means consumers have a new appetite and acceptance for
unpretentious, low-fi creative content – but it must be fit for platform
Increased acceptance of virtual experiences creates opportunities for brands to create the same type of immersive
experiences, and drive deeper engagement with consumers. Use paid media to drive traffic to these owned assets
Uptake of e-sports and gaming has opened opportunities for brands to connect with new audiences and extend a
‘real life’ alignment into virtual spaces
‘How-to’-style content from brands offers consumers something useful – again, use paid channels to drive traffic to
owned assets, and increased earned media
Whilst there will likely be an increase in the next release of readership data, be conscious of this data already being
outdated and investigate digital alternatives
Virtual = personal: investment guidance
Datafication
▪ Pre-COVID-19 society increasingly focussed on individuality and privacy. Consumers were concerned about
the amount of data they were sharing
▪ The development of apps and government requests to use biometric and location data to ‘flatten the curve’
has accelerated and facilitated a shift to ‘citizen surveillance’ – which will drive acceptance and reassurance
around sharing this type of data
▪ Personal data has become a key element of social infrastructure, and that’s not likely to change moving
forward
Datafication
Datafication: media consumption shift
The highlighted ability to track infection clusters through data and technology will lead to a re-evaluation of privacy,
and the data Australians are willing to share, both with government and brands. First party data is information your
customers have chosen to give you, and understand that at some point, you will activate it
Social distancing has changed the way Australians go about their day to day – specifically shopping - based on time,
location and product availability
During this time, Australian’s have been entertained exclusively at home, on screens. Multi-screening is ubiquitous and
brands now need a deep understanding of consumer behaviour to win in the attention economy
Word of mouth, personal recommendation and third party endorsement have always been powerful – but so. Now
they are fully scaled - Amazon recommendations are simply aggregations of the opinions of “people like me”.
Similarly, negative feedback on owned channels needs to be addressed – community management
Datafication: media consumption shift
Datafication: investment guidance
With consumers more comfortable sharing data, there is opportunity to further leverage data from owned channels;
consumers have already found you here and want to hear from you. Brands are able to influence and grow insights
off the back of obtained additional data points and increase search engine discoverability as a result of owned
channel content
Linking and leveraging all data and technology sources available, there will be opportunity to move beyond “media
metrics” (such as reach and frequency) and actually look at “business outcomes” that media investment delivers
In a converged landscape, consumers have more control than ever over the content they consume and the
device(s) they use to consume it. Brands need to think and invest screen agnostic and plan for synergy effects across
channels; to run TV advertising without aligning search is like taking customers into a shop, but not having any product
to sell to them
Convergence has led to a new media ecosystem, compounded by social distancing measures and the subsequent
consumption behaviour shift. E-commerce and click-and-collect have proven to be a real growth channels/areas
during this crisis and give further opportunity to brands to leverage their owned channels and pivot media investment
to support
Datafication: investment guidance
Workforce transformation
▪ COVID-19 has allowed many employees to demonstrate that they can successfully work from a location other
than an office
▪ Acceptance of workplace flexibility has been accelerated and its here to stay – employees can control their
environment and give themselves back time saved travelling; employers will see corporate savings in the form
of overheads and travel expenses
▪ Individuals whose roles/industries are being forced to step away from established careers and consider what
other skills they can commercialise
▪ We’ll also see an acceleration of a ‘blended’ workforce – made up of permanent employees, a larger
proportion of tech delivery specialists, and more casual/contract employees, brought in for a particular
specialisation or project
Workforce transformation
Workforce transformation: media consumption shift
Transformation of the workplace and workforce has seen some OOH formats – namely commuter formats - suffer from
a change in traffic patterns. Consumers are looking for and are receptive to hyper-local messaging
We saw a shift in listening behaviour during social isolation – there was a significant increase in average audience
across weekday morning and afternoon sessions, whilst ‘normal’ peak listening behaviour was maintained despite the
lack of commuter drive time. With an expected increase in remote working, we anticipate this listening behaviour will
continue
Self isolation has also accelerated the growth of podcast consumption, with an increase of consumers looking for self-
improvement and/or betterment which correlates to the expected shifts in work related choices.
Similar to radio, it is expected that the shape of linear TV audiences will change across the day, with traditional off-
peak zones seeing uplift
With a more distributed workforce, the need social connection and interaction will be of great importance for
Australians to stay in contact. Consumers’ digital footprint, consumption and behaviour are evolving
Workforce transformation: media consumption shift
Workforce transformation: investment guidance
Consider how the role of formats will shift – traditional reach ‘heavy-lifter’ large format will become an impact driver,
work with smaller formats like petro-convenience and retail driving reach and frequency
Audience gains and shifts should currently be delivering efficiencies – but as demand increases and new audience
data is released, it will be more important to plan session splits (rather than relying on previous buying models, eg Mon-
Fri BMAD)
Increased uptake of podcasts and free streaming services create additional audio opportunities
Be very aware of the data sets and timings being used for planning to take advantage of efficiencies created for
different dayparts by audience uplifts – but also be aware of the levels of engagement at these times of day (i.e.
during ‘work’ hours)
This increased digital footprint and reliance on social and virtual environments gives us more opportunities to speak to
an audience who has been conditioned by COVID-19 to do more online
Workforce transformation: investment guidance
Thank you

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Amplifi AU | COVID 19: Beyond the Curve Investment Response

  • 1. COVID-19: Beyond the Curve Investment Response 11th May 2020
  • 2. Journey to the new ‘normal’ The impact on the economy, services, consumption and infrastructure as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, both globally and in Australia, is far reaching. This is the case not only now, but going forward, influencing the way we live and consume into the future. Now, tomorrow as well as later; once we settle beyond the curve in what will be the new ‘normal’. We will use the behavioural themes dentsu intelligence’s though leadership piece ‘Beyond the Curve: Life after Coronavirus in Australia’ to investigate how media consumption, and subsequently media investment, will be transformed by post COVID-19 crisis. Over the coming weeks, Amplifi will focus on the distinct roles COVID-19 will take in shaping our future, with a media investment lens: 1. As an ACCELERATOR of change with immediate shifts in media consumption behaviours 2. As a RE-EVALUATOR of priorities, attitudes and behaviours 3. As a DISRUPTOR of progress and growth – potentially moving us backward in order to go forward in a different direction We will look at what we can do to be ready for tomorrow and the new ‘normal’, to help our clients build robust strategies and implementation plans to ensure that their brands come out stronger on the other side.
  • 3. 1. PEST analysis Click here 2. The three pivotal roles of COVID-19 Click here 3. Brand opportunity Click here 4. Brand opportunity: media consumption shift Click here 5. Brand opportunity: investment guidance Click here 6. Virtual = personal Click here 7. Virtual = personal: media consumption shift Click here 8. Virtual = personal: investment guidance Click here 9. Datafication Click here 10. Datafication: media consumption shift Click here 11. Datafication: investment guidance Click here 12. Workforce transformation Click here 13. Workforce transformation: media consumption shift Click here 14. Workforce transformation: investment guidance Click here Contents
  • 4. COVID-19: the world’s largest shared experience PEST analysis Political Economic Social Technology Other State of Emergency declared in most countries Slow government response in some markets, including blame games and more worried about political image than taking action Global impact and a change to trade as a result of affected supply chains (border closures) Concerns about a global economic downturn – stock markets are taking significant hits Lockdown and social distancing measures impacting businesses, workforces and cashflow Fear and panic – an invisible ‘enemy’ that is affecting people seemingly indiscriminately, with no cure Lockdown and social distancing measure, as well as fear, lead to social isolation Office workers still employed mostly working from home WFH and social distancing measures has accelerated use of technology and data NBN and other technologies have mostly held up under the increased load – creating a likely sustained shift in usage COVID-19 has impacted the entire world in an unprecedented way and across all PEST factors, with no immediate end in sight which affects the way people consume (media) and behave
  • 5. And the three pivotal roles it will play for the future The three pivotal roles of COVID-19 What impact will each have on media consumption and investment? THE ACCELERATOR Hitting fast forward on trends like e-commerce, distributed workforces and virtual experiences THE RE-EVALUATOR Australians will re-evaluate their choices, priorities, attitudes and perspectives – challenging the assumptions of yesterday THE DISRUPTOR Changing the trajectory of progress, and in some cases redirecting the way forward The new “normal" Today Tomorrow
  • 6. Brand opportunity ▪ Throughout advertising history, brands that have maintained or increased ‘brand’ advertising spend in times of downturn have been able to increase market share as competitors pulled back (or out), and build brand equity ▪ For brands to go dark during these times, the risk is two-fold: negatively impact market share and depreciate brand value; face significant increase in both cost and effort to rebuild share and brand equity in an improved economy ▪ A softer market as a result of the pandemic has accelerated opportunities for brands to take a category leadership position, take advantage of greater efficiencies to remain in-market and extract greater value from their campaigns Brand opportunity
  • 7. Brand opportunity: media consumption shift During social distancing, time spent consuming linear TV hit levels not seen for several years, whilst BVOD and live streaming reached unprecedented levels – leading to a rise in available inventory not met by demand. As Australian’s start to feel less anxious about the COVID-19 situation, there’s been a shift towards positive, uplifting and aspirational content (think: Masterchef, Lego Masters, Have You Been Paying Attention?). The lounge room has been used as a shared experience to reconnect with family The pandemic has highlighted just how important it is to consumers that they genuinely trust the sources of content they are consuming The uplift in time spent with devices has accelerated consumers’ perceived ‘need’ for instant gratification in the form of sourcing information. But once they find you, there needs to be a value exchange – because now, consumers are even more single-minded in what they want you to help them do Social distancing means that, for the foreseeable future, cinemas have ceased to exist. This is further complicated by a halt in production – when cinemas do fully reopen, we will likely see a limited selection of titles in the interim Brand opportunity: media consumption
  • 8. Brand opportunity: investment guidance Budget invested in screen agnostic Brand campaigns in the current climate will not only build long term brand equity (and efficiencies versus ‘going dark’ now), but also gives us the ability to extract greater campaign value (not necessarily savings or discounts) It is anticipated that the current imbalance between supply and demand will reverse during Q3 and Q4 – planning now and booking early will assist in offsetting this Leverage the resurgence of the shared viewing experience - consider the types of programs that are the tentpoles of you campaigns Brand safety is paramount, now more than ever – there is little value in investing in your brand if it's seen alongside questionable content. Actively monitor and review block rates and brand safety performance against non-brand suitable content or keywords Ensuring synergies across channel selection for brand campaigns is key – if anything the expectation to be able to find out about your brand now, following a trigger in another channel, has increased The impact on film production means that cinema will likely not be viable as the premium ‘big screen’ experience for brand campaigns for some time yet Brand opportunity: investment guidance
  • 9. Virtual = personal ▪ Time spent on social and streaming platforms has been building over the last few years – social distancing measures have simply accelerated usage and adoption of new platforms ▪ COVID-19 has brought with it numerous opportunities for us to come together from a distance, and they’re here to stay ▪ We’ve also seen accelerated acceptance of virtual experiences – from museums, galleries and tourism, through to professional sporting codes developing e-sports competitions, with fans coming along for the ride ▪ This gives rise to a new form of one-to-one communication – personalised virtual experiences Virtual = personal
  • 10. Virtual = personal: media consumption shift COVID-19 will force Australian’s for reassess the role of social media in their lives, and has accelerated growth of opportunities for people to come together from a distance Growth of platforms like Tik Tok, Zoom and Houseparty has also evolved usage – from home-schooling to virtual dating to learning new things – and has seen a resurgence in formats such as Instagram Live We have seen ‘live’ experiences go ‘virtual’ – from tourism, galleries, museums and zoos - all been engaging audiences during this time with immersive virtual experiences Sporting codes are delivering virtualisation via e-sports, which has seen increased uptake of platforms like Twitch, and deeper engagement between professional athletes, gamers and fans which will likely continue into the post-CV-19 future The capability for virtual education has been highlighted and brought to the fore as a viable option – from simple things like learning a recipe or how to make a cocktail, through to tertiary qualifications Whilst we saw an increase in magazine subscriptions and newspaper purchasing behaviour in the initial stages of lockdown, the temporary lowering of paywalls has given consumers a taste of digital news and lifestyle content – and we anticipate that digital platforms will revert to diminishing print readership Virtual = personal: media consumption
  • 11. Virtual = personal: investment guidance This increased ‘mainstream’ adoption of new and existing social platforms means that there has also been a shift in demographic for each Increased consumption of content via these platforms means consumers have a new appetite and acceptance for unpretentious, low-fi creative content – but it must be fit for platform Increased acceptance of virtual experiences creates opportunities for brands to create the same type of immersive experiences, and drive deeper engagement with consumers. Use paid media to drive traffic to these owned assets Uptake of e-sports and gaming has opened opportunities for brands to connect with new audiences and extend a ‘real life’ alignment into virtual spaces ‘How-to’-style content from brands offers consumers something useful – again, use paid channels to drive traffic to owned assets, and increased earned media Whilst there will likely be an increase in the next release of readership data, be conscious of this data already being outdated and investigate digital alternatives Virtual = personal: investment guidance
  • 12. Datafication ▪ Pre-COVID-19 society increasingly focussed on individuality and privacy. Consumers were concerned about the amount of data they were sharing ▪ The development of apps and government requests to use biometric and location data to ‘flatten the curve’ has accelerated and facilitated a shift to ‘citizen surveillance’ – which will drive acceptance and reassurance around sharing this type of data ▪ Personal data has become a key element of social infrastructure, and that’s not likely to change moving forward Datafication
  • 13. Datafication: media consumption shift The highlighted ability to track infection clusters through data and technology will lead to a re-evaluation of privacy, and the data Australians are willing to share, both with government and brands. First party data is information your customers have chosen to give you, and understand that at some point, you will activate it Social distancing has changed the way Australians go about their day to day – specifically shopping - based on time, location and product availability During this time, Australian’s have been entertained exclusively at home, on screens. Multi-screening is ubiquitous and brands now need a deep understanding of consumer behaviour to win in the attention economy Word of mouth, personal recommendation and third party endorsement have always been powerful – but so. Now they are fully scaled - Amazon recommendations are simply aggregations of the opinions of “people like me”. Similarly, negative feedback on owned channels needs to be addressed – community management Datafication: media consumption shift
  • 14. Datafication: investment guidance With consumers more comfortable sharing data, there is opportunity to further leverage data from owned channels; consumers have already found you here and want to hear from you. Brands are able to influence and grow insights off the back of obtained additional data points and increase search engine discoverability as a result of owned channel content Linking and leveraging all data and technology sources available, there will be opportunity to move beyond “media metrics” (such as reach and frequency) and actually look at “business outcomes” that media investment delivers In a converged landscape, consumers have more control than ever over the content they consume and the device(s) they use to consume it. Brands need to think and invest screen agnostic and plan for synergy effects across channels; to run TV advertising without aligning search is like taking customers into a shop, but not having any product to sell to them Convergence has led to a new media ecosystem, compounded by social distancing measures and the subsequent consumption behaviour shift. E-commerce and click-and-collect have proven to be a real growth channels/areas during this crisis and give further opportunity to brands to leverage their owned channels and pivot media investment to support Datafication: investment guidance
  • 15. Workforce transformation ▪ COVID-19 has allowed many employees to demonstrate that they can successfully work from a location other than an office ▪ Acceptance of workplace flexibility has been accelerated and its here to stay – employees can control their environment and give themselves back time saved travelling; employers will see corporate savings in the form of overheads and travel expenses ▪ Individuals whose roles/industries are being forced to step away from established careers and consider what other skills they can commercialise ▪ We’ll also see an acceleration of a ‘blended’ workforce – made up of permanent employees, a larger proportion of tech delivery specialists, and more casual/contract employees, brought in for a particular specialisation or project Workforce transformation
  • 16. Workforce transformation: media consumption shift Transformation of the workplace and workforce has seen some OOH formats – namely commuter formats - suffer from a change in traffic patterns. Consumers are looking for and are receptive to hyper-local messaging We saw a shift in listening behaviour during social isolation – there was a significant increase in average audience across weekday morning and afternoon sessions, whilst ‘normal’ peak listening behaviour was maintained despite the lack of commuter drive time. With an expected increase in remote working, we anticipate this listening behaviour will continue Self isolation has also accelerated the growth of podcast consumption, with an increase of consumers looking for self- improvement and/or betterment which correlates to the expected shifts in work related choices. Similar to radio, it is expected that the shape of linear TV audiences will change across the day, with traditional off- peak zones seeing uplift With a more distributed workforce, the need social connection and interaction will be of great importance for Australians to stay in contact. Consumers’ digital footprint, consumption and behaviour are evolving Workforce transformation: media consumption shift
  • 17. Workforce transformation: investment guidance Consider how the role of formats will shift – traditional reach ‘heavy-lifter’ large format will become an impact driver, work with smaller formats like petro-convenience and retail driving reach and frequency Audience gains and shifts should currently be delivering efficiencies – but as demand increases and new audience data is released, it will be more important to plan session splits (rather than relying on previous buying models, eg Mon- Fri BMAD) Increased uptake of podcasts and free streaming services create additional audio opportunities Be very aware of the data sets and timings being used for planning to take advantage of efficiencies created for different dayparts by audience uplifts – but also be aware of the levels of engagement at these times of day (i.e. during ‘work’ hours) This increased digital footprint and reliance on social and virtual environments gives us more opportunities to speak to an audience who has been conditioned by COVID-19 to do more online Workforce transformation: investment guidance