3. 10-Year Bond Yields—Remain in a
firm downtrend; making a series of
lower low and lower highs; would
require a close above 3.5% to
reverse the secular downtrend.
4. 2015 Partner ConferenceStronger Together4
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
'58 '63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13
Interest Rates and Inflation
Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core CPI inflation for that month except for March 2015,
where real yields are calculated by subtracting out February 2015 year-over-year core inflation. All returns above reflect annualized total returns,
which include reinvestment of dividends. Corporate bond returns are based on a composite index of investment grade bond performance.
Data are as of March 31, 2015.
30
Nominal and Real 10-year Treasury Yields
Mar. 31, 2015:
0.25%
Sep. 30, 1981:
15.84%
Mar. 31, 2015:
1.94%
Nominal 10-year
Treasury Yield
Real 10-year
Treasury Yield
Average
(1958 – 2015 YTD) 3/31/15
Nominal Yields 6.24% 1.94%
Real Yields 2.48% 0.25%
Inflation 3.79% 1.69%
Rising Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500
1958-1981 3.0% 8.6%
Ann. Inflation 5.0% 5.0%
Ann. Real Return -2.0% 3.5%
Falling Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 500
1982-2014 9.6% 11.7%
Ann. Inflation 3.0% 3.0%
Ann. Real Return 6.6% 8.6%
FixedIncome Interest Rates
